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30

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Website : www.peerlessec.co.in

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Peerless Securities Ltd. Peerless Mansion, 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 69

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PORTFOLIO PICKS

STOCK PICKS FOR JULY 2017 Stock price in INR on June29, 2017

COMPANY SECTOR

MARKET

CAP(INR

CR)

CMP

(INR) RATING

POTENTIAL

TARGET

POTENTIAL

UPSIDE

CADILA HEALTHCARE Pharma 53429 521 ACCUMULATE 600 15.16%

WHIRPOOL

Consumer

Discretionary 14158 1113 ACCUMULATE 1250 12.31%

UPL LTD Agro chemical 41970 827 ACCUMULATE 910 10.04%

NBCC

Construction &

engineering 18364 204 BUY 240 17.65%

GODREJ PROPERTIES Real Estate 11136 514 BUY 600 16.73% Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months unless specified

Market Outlook:

Indian equity markets consolidate its gain in the month of June with subdued flows from domestic & foreign

institutional investors as Benchmark Nifty trade in small range in the month amid volatility. Recent correction

in midcap and small cap space was due to expensive valuation coupled with weak earnings. Recent rally in

markets has made stock prices overvalued in some sectors and pockets of markets and risk reward is not

favourably placed for short term. However, strong liquidity and expectations of faster recovery in earnings,

stability in political establishment in India could keep the market sentiments buoyancy in near term. We are

cautiously optimistic on Indian equities over medium term despite short term volatility.

US Fed sets the process to wind down its massive USD 4.5 trillion balance sheet in a gradual manner in part

its exercise to normalize the interest rate. It is expected that gradual approach of Fed could mitigate the risk

of adverse effects on market functioning or outsized effects on interest rates. The process comes as the Fed

is on a gradual path towards interest rate hike cycle. European Central Bank also expected announces

tapering of its bond purchase programme at the later half of this year. These central banks actions could

have an adverse impact on global liquidity and equity markets tend to adjust with lower valuation multiples.

Market likely to be volatile in near term as valuation is stretched in near term. Geo political and protectionist

policies are the biggest risk in equity markets performance globally. June quarter earnings in India likely to

be impacted due to GST. However, Implementation of GST would reduce tax evasion and would help to

achieve higher growth in long term.

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We continue to be positive in select private banking, consumer discretionary, and select domestic FMCG

companies in India.

UPDATE ON JUNE 2017 STOCK PICKS

STOCK

CALL INITATED

AT (INR) DATE

POTENTIAL

TARGET RATING

PRICE(29

JUNE 2017) REMARKS

HIND UNILIVER 1043 25-May-17 1120 ACCUMULATE 1087 OPEN

HINDALCO 191 25-May-17 235 ACCUMULATE 192 OPEN

JUBILANT FOOD 1015 25-May-17 1125 ACCUMULATE 951 OPEN

MARUTI 6986 25-May-17 7700 BUY 7213 OPEN

TORRENT PHARMA 1220 25-May-17 1450 BUY 1192 OPEN

Stock price in INR

Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance. We have now revised this stock return performance policy from 30 Sep 2016(Oct derivative series) onwards and STOPLOSS BASIS stock calls are not given.

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in JUNE 2017(Till JUNE 29, 2017)

OPEN: 9603 HIGH: 9709 CLOSE: 9498

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Global Economy Update:

1. Fed hikes rate by 25 bps: On June 14, US Fed hikes the interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, with

a outlook for one more rate cut in 2017. As per the statement of FOMC “Near-term risks to the

economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the committee is monitoring inflation

developments closely.” Furthermore the “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain

somewhat below 2% in the near term but to stabilize around the committee’s 2% objective over

the medium term.” Moreover Fed has set a target to reduced USD 4.2 trillion of portfolio

comprising treasury bonds, as a part of Balance sheet normalization. The committee predicts

economy growth for 2017 is 2.2%, whilst inflation is main concern and expects to be 1.7%,

down 1.9% from earlier expectation.

2. Brexit Negotiation continues: Brexit negotiation meeting start on June 19, the core member

from both side are Brexit secretary and EU’s Chief negotiator. The early stage agenda are to

focusing Britain’s leave from EU, the future of EU citizens living in the UK, and the Northern

Ireland border. As per the Davis (Secretary of EU) statement “While there is a long road ahead,

our destination is clears — a deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU. A deal

like no other in history.” As per the Global Research Study - About 44% of UK exports in goods

and services went to the EU in 2016—£240 billion out of £550 billion total exports. It is critical to

the health of every British citizen that a satisfactory trade deal is done because if the vision that

Theresa May has put forward, that no deal is better than a bad deal comes true, Britain’s

economy will crash and burn practically overnight.

3. World Bank Pessimistic about emerging market growth: According to World Bank

developing economies are still in undercut by weak investment, as the develop economies are

still in scrawny. As per WB’s latest forecast on June 4, Global economy would grew at 2.7% for

2017, backed by recovery in US, Europe and others advanced economies, helping the growth in

global trade. Rising in commodity prices from recent lows will also helps the emerging market

economy to grow at a 4.1%. As per the World Bank’s economist - “Even if the expected modest

rebound in investment across (emerging and developing economies) materializes, slowing

capital accumulation in recent years may already have reduced potential growth.”

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Indian Economy in Growth path: Key Statistics:

1. RBI keeps hold the Repo Rate with neutral status qua: On June 7, MPC committee kept CRR

as unchanged, with a surprise cut in statutory liquidity ratio by 50 bps to 20%. As MPC

aware of several earlier enunciate risks to the medium-term, raising rural wages, robust

consumption demand, implementation of the 7th Pay Commission award on HRA and

the acceptance of these by state governments and global risks materializing in the form

of imported inflation, therefore the committee decided to stay on hold and wait for

greater clarity to emerge with incoming data. SLR reduction by 50 bps as a part of the

transition to the 100% LCR by January 2019 but in the interim it will be provided the

liquidity to banks and possibly these two measures together should bring some

buoyancy to the home loan segment.

2. May retail Inflation at 5 years low at 2.1%: May CPI fall to 2.1%, stood at 5 years low led

by negative food & inflation i.e. -1.05% against 0.61% in April as per the data released

by CSO. Negative food inflation led by a continued fall in prices of pulses after the

record crop in current year. Further food inflation may slow in near term, if agri

production shot up for good monsoon as per the IMD estimates.

3. Slowing Q4 GDP data at 6.1% showing demonetization effect tranquil in the Indian economy: As

per the CSO data released on 31st May shows GDP for Q4FY17 is 6.1% while it expects GDP for the

whole year will grow by 7.1%. Where the GVA prices in Q4 of Fy7 is estimated at `28.69 lakh crore, as

against `27.18 lakh crore in Q4 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 5.6 percent. Also the growth rate in

per capita income is estimated at 5.7 percent during 2016-17, as against 6.8 percent in the previous year.

However good monsoon and GST rollout will give boost the consumer sentiment and driving the demand;

expects the economy would recover in current fiscal from current leisurely growth.

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STOCK PICKS

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 53429

52 week high (Rs) 559

52 week low (Rs) 305

3m average

volume NSE 11,49,643

Beta 0.95

Face value ( RS ) 1

Shareholding (%) Q4 FY 2017

Promoters 74.8%

Institutions 17.1%

Non-Institutions 8.1%

Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 9754 9837 8651

EBITDA (Cr) 1903 2475 1801

PAT (Cr) 1361 1517 1157

Net Profit Margin (%) 13.9% 15.8% 13.7%

EPS (Rs.) 13.4 14.9 56.2

Book Value (Cr) 7116 5351 4251

(FY 17-Adjusted)

P/E 39.5 35.5 9.4

P/BV 7.7 10.1 2.5

RONW(%) 23.5% 28.4% 27.1%

RoCE (%) 12.1% 23.0% 19.9%

CaCaCaCadila Healthcaredila Healthcaredila Healthcaredila Healthcare Ltd.Ltd.Ltd.Ltd. Sector: Sector: Sector: Sector: PharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticals NSE CODE: CADILAHC

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 521 | Target: Rs 600

TECHNICAL VIEW: The stock recently broke out of its 52 week high and pattern wise it has formed bullish W pattern breakout. This suggest strong move intact in medium term.

Recently the stock is retracing with low volume after sharp rally with strong volumes in 2 weeks. This indicates continuation of uptrend intact. Also, the ADX position shows positive bias for the stock. We expect bullish W pattern formation of target price INR 600 to be achieved in medium term time frame of around 1 year.

Cadila Healthcare is one of the large pharma companies that are currently free from regulatory beetle and possesses a lucrative product pipeline. The company involved in the business activities of Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical

products.

On Q4FY17 revenue grew by 6.5% to Rs. 2418 crore Y-o-Y, EBITDAM stood at 16.7%, de grew by 17.1% to Rs. 403 crore. De growth in EBITDA largely laid by higher raw material costs. Whereas PAT slipped by 26.8% to Rs. 410 crore, largely lay by higher depreciation (49.9% Y-o-Y increase).

Investment thesis: Strong focuses on specialty & branded business: Focus on pain management, dermatology and oncology products. Development of 505(b)(2) opportunities. Acquisition of Sentynl Therapeutics Inc. specializing in pain management. Strong execution focuses for the US market; and continuous focus on product launches will drive the top line growth. Strong focus on R&D will help to develop new products and fuel the growth, Expect to maintain 7-8% of revenue will spend in R&D. Recently the company gets approval from US drug regulator for Eletriptan Hydrobromide Tablets, 20 mg (base) and 40 mg (base). The drug will use for treatment of migraine, will be produced at the group's formulations manufacturing facility at the Pharma SEZ in Ahmadabad.

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Company Data




3m average

volume NSE 79,092

Beta 0.73

Face value ( RS ) 10

Shareholding (%) Q4 FY2017

Promoters 65.3%

Institutions 26.0%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 3941 3488 3294

EBITDA (Cr) 489 383 331

PAT (Cr) 310 240 210

Net Profit Margin

(%) 7.9% 6.9% 6.4%

EPS (Rs.) 24.5 19.5 16.6

Book Value (Cr) 1566 1163 915

(FY 17-Adjusted)

P/E 45.6 57.3 67.3

P/BV 8.4 12.2 15.5

RONW(%) 21.2% 21.5% 16.9%

RoCE (%) 32.7% 33.0% 33.2%

WhirlpoolWhirlpoolWhirlpoolWhirlpool LLLLtd.td.td.td. Sector: Sector: Sector: Sector: Consumer ElectronicsConsumer ElectronicsConsumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics NSE CODE: WHIRLPOOL

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1113 | Target: Rs 1250

Currently Company is involved in the business activities of in the Indian subcontinent to washing machines, refrigerator, microwave ovens and air conditioners. On Q4FY17 standalone revenue grew by 19.6% to Rs. 1015 crore Y-o-Y, EBITDAM stood at 12.3%, EBITDA grew by 16.8% to Rs. 125 crore. De growth in EBITDAM by 30bps largely due to higher raw material costs. Whereas PAT grew by 7.4% to Rs. 744 crore, PATM too contracted by 83 bps largely on account of higher depreciation charges.

As per Management:

Whirlpool targeting to cross $1 billion mark by 2020. Currently, it contributes about 3-4% to Whirlpool Corp.’s global revenue. The company is growing at a high double digit rate.

Govt. initiatives will boost growth for domestic appliances market. Management believes that, as per the government target to electrify all the villages by FY19 will give thrust on sales of appliance appliances.

Also the 7th Pay Commission money, a part of which will translate into discretionary spends. This will also boost sales in smaller towns where penetration is even lower.

Whirlpool is in the value premium to super premium space. As urbanization grows, premium and mass ends will contribute to growth. In any case, premium is not just to do with metro markets. Smaller towns are getting good demand for premium products.

TECHNICAL VIEW: After making a new high around 1280 in March 2017, the stock has been falling gradually and now is around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support zone (INR 1094) of the last rally. This suggests that after huge momentum rally, stock is reactionary down move before start of upmove again . Momentum indicators stochastic and RSI are giving a positive bias for the stock The stock is likely to move up to its higher trading level zone of 1250 in timeframe of around 12 months

`



Company Data




3m average


Beta 1.1

Face value ( RS ) 2


Promoters 27.7%

Institutions 52.3%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 17123 13301 12090

EBITDA (Cr) 3429 2750 2352

PAT (Cr) 1727 1334 1161

Net Profit Margin

(%) 10.1% 10.0% 9.6%

EPS (RS) 34.1 30.3 26.7

Book Value (Cr) 7430 6790 5860

P/E 25.2 28.4 32.2

P/BV 5.0 5.4 6.3

RoNW(%) 25.4% 19.1% 19.5%

ROCE(%) 23.2% 13.3% 13.6%

UPL Ltd.UPL Ltd.UPL Ltd.UPL Ltd. Sector: Sector: Sector: Sector: AgrochemicalsAgrochemicalsAgrochemicalsAgrochemicals NSE CODE: UPL

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: RS 827 | Target: RS 910

TECHNICAL VIEW: The stock is moving steadily in an upward channel for the last 18 months which shows bullishness in the stock. The 50ema (exponential moving average) is acting as a support for the stock and the rate of change (ROC) is also showing strength in its upmove. We expect target price of INR 910 which is higher end of the channel, in time frame of around 12 months for this stock.

UPL is involved in the business activities of Manufacture of pesticides and other agrochemical products.

During Q4FY17 revenue from operation grew by 20.5% to Rs. 5341 crore Y-o-Y, where non agro activities grew by 54% Y-o-Y and agro activities grew by 18% Y-o-Y. EBITDA has registered a solid growth of 54% to Rs. 1037 crore, and margin stood at 19.4%. Net profit increases by 198% to Rs. 741 crore.

Investment Thesis:

Diversified product portfolio and strong business strategy helps to reach at sustainable growth and we expect it to keep growth momentum in long term. Product portfolio constitutes Herbicides, Insecticides and Fungicides. Focus on innovative formulations, Creating brands, Customer engagement, Market expansion through own registrations.

Worldwide presence makes the business model attractive - Exports to over 130 countries; direct presence in major markets with own distribution & sales force in > 40 nations.

Expected good monsoon and growing products of non-chemical products; would help to increase the demand of bio fertilizers going forward, this likely to create robust growth opportunity for UPL.

Have good market access - Marketing push though own sales force and extensive network of distributors, new products at minimal incremental cost through existing network, Value-added services to farmers such as advisory/ farm services; will help the company to achieve high business growth.

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Company Data




3m average


Beta 1.16

Face value ( RS ) 2


Promoters 75.0%

Institutions 14.0%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 6313 5826 4400

EBITDA (Cr) 410 315 289

PAT (Cr) 354 289 278

Net Profit Margin

(%) 5.6% 5.0% 6.3%

EPS (RS) 3.9 3.2 23.2

Book Value (Cr) 1694.9 1542.5 1338.4

P/E 52.3% 63.7 8.8

P/BV 2.2 1.6 1.8

RoNW(%) 21.2% 20.7% 20.8%

RoCE(%) 20.1% 19.8% 20.1%

NBCCNBCCNBCCNBCC Ltd.Ltd.Ltd.Ltd. Sector: Sector: Sector: Sector: Construction & EngineeringConstruction & EngineeringConstruction & EngineeringConstruction & Engineering NSE CODE: NBCC

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 204 |Target: Rs 240

TECHNICAL VIEW: The stock made an ascending triangle breakout pattern and also made new 52 week high showing internal strength in medium term. The uptrend of the stock is accompanied with good volume and higher top higher bottom formation is intact and hence we can see sustainable rally in days to come.The rate of change (ROC) is indicating a positive bias for the stock We expect price to move to INR 240 in time frame of around 12 months

Company’s unique business model has today, made it stand out as a leader in its own right in the construction sector with more than Rs. 74000 crore Order Book in hand. Company’s three segment consisting Project Management consultancy, Real Estate, and EPC Contracting.

On Q4FY17 revenue grew by 5%% to Rs. 2342 crore Y-o-Y, EBITDAM stood at 8.9%; EBITDA grew by 39.5% to Rs. 209 crore. Growth in EBITDAM by 220 bps largely constituted by higher margin real estate business division. Whereas PAT grew by 42.9% to Rs. 175 crore, PATM too improved by 220 bps.

Investment Thesis:

Recently NBCC announced that its Board has approved the participation of NBCC in joint venture with Government of Maharashtra and private entity to develop a Smart Industrial City near Navi Mumbai on PPP Model; this will give a huge opportunity to grew its’ top line at faster rate.

As per the plan of GOI smart city of 240 acre will come up in Delhi, with estimated project cost of Rs. 15000 crore. The project would jointly do by CPWD and NBCC.

Targeted to be achieved include Completion of 36 Towers at the Mega redevelopment Project of East Kidwai Nagar; Demolition of - all 628 existing Residential Quarters at Nauroji Nagar, 600 existing Residential Quarters at Sarojini Nagar and 500 existing Residential Quarters at Netaji Nagar, New Delhi which all are part of integrated Redevelopment of the three colonies. The Company also targets demolition of 75,000 Sqm. area out of total 1,26,829 Sqm. area and Construction of works valuing Rs 250 Crore in its ITPO Project, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi during this FY 17-18.

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Company Data




3m average

volume NSE 518315

Beta 1.2

Face value ( RS ) 5


Promoters 74.9%

Institutions 11.7%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 1583 2634 1843

EBITDA (Cr) 250 350 257

PAT (Cr) 207 231 191

Net Profit Margin

(%) 13.1% 8.8% 10.4%

EPS (RS) 9.6 10.7 9.6

Book Value (Cr) 2004 2168 1847

P/E 53.6 47.9 53.5

P/BV 5.5 5.1 5.5

RoNW(%) 9.9% 11.5% 10.5%

RoCE(%) 4.2% 5.4% 4.8%

Godrej PropertiesGodrej PropertiesGodrej PropertiesGodrej Properties Ltd.Ltd.Ltd.Ltd. Sector: Sector: Sector: Sector: Real EstateReal EstateReal EstateReal Estate NSE CODE: GODREJPROP

BUY| PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 514 |Target: Rs 600

The focus area of Godrej in Real Estate pace on residential which includes Apartments, Villas, Plotted Developments; and Commercial business includes Corporate Office blocks, Built to Suit facilities, Technology parks, Campuses. On Q4FY17 Godrej added 3 new projects with 3.5 million sq. ft. of saleable area in Q4 FY17. Registered sales of 6 lakh square ft. with a booking value of INR 340 Cr despite no new project launches and weak market conditions. Delivered 1,156 apartments measuring 1.75 million sq. ft. across 3 cities in Q4 FY17. Attained revenue recognition threshold at The Trees, Phase 2 in Q4 FY17 ahead of schedule.

Investment Thesis:

Top line has grown by nearly 13% CAGR from last six years, new projects addition and ongoing projects are suggesting a higher revenue growth in near future.

To support strong business growth in coming years the company, furthermore strong projects line will provide a strong support to the company; added 16 projects with ~33 million sq. ft. saleable area in the last 3 years, out of that also added 7 new projects with 18 million sq. ft. of saleable area in FY17.

During FY17 Godrej properties witnessing a strong execution in projects, the company delivered 4.55 million square ft. across 4 major cities (Godrej Garden City, Ahmadabad 1.86 million square ft., Godrej BKC, Mumbai 1.28 million square ft., Godrej Platinum, Bengaluru 0.55 million square ft., Godrej E-City, Bengaluru 0.53 million square ft., Godrej Serenity, Mumbai 0.18 million square ft., Godrej Horizon, Pune 0.10 million square ft., Godrej Gold County, Bengaluru 0.05 million square ft.). Focus on execution will add further growth for GPL.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock broke out Bullish Reverse Head & Shoulder formation in long term chart and gave a strong rally in near term. Recently is has been giving reactionary down move and falling gradually giving opportunity to enter for the pattern target price level of INR 600 The stock has been maintaining bullish golden crossover with 13ema and 30ema and ADX and MACD supports the upmove of the stock. We expect the price target of INR 600 to be achieved in time frame of 12 months

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Research Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal

benchmark.

TECHNICAL CALL RATING PARAMETER

BUY A condition that indicates a good time to buy a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the

indicator that an analyst is using.

SELL A condition that indicates a good time to sell a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the

indicator that an analyst is using.

STOP LOSS An instruction to the broker to buy or sell stock when it trades beyond a specified price. They serve to either protect

your profits or limit your losses.

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`



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DP ID: IN300958; CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL-505-2009; Research Analyst INH300002365, CIN: U67120WB1995PLC067616

Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and the like and take professional advice before investing. Investments in securities are subject to market risk, please read all the related documents carefully before investing. Please read the SEBI prescribed Combined Risk Disclosure Document (refer to SEBI website) prior to investing. Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts.

Compliance Officer: Mr. Raj Kumar Mukherjee. Call: 033-4050-2700, Email: [email protected]

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Peerless Securities Limited Registered Office:

1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata- 700 069

Phone: +91-33-4050-2700/6450-2002/2243-5942, Fax: +91-33-2243 6941

Institutional Office:

11-A, Mittal Towers, 1st floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai – 400 021

Phone: +91-22-2284 1411, 22-6630 3810, Fax: +91-22-2284 1316

SEBI REGN. NO. NSE: INB/INF 230821137, BSE: INB 010821131, NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-96-99, CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL-505-2009, ARN – 2103

SEBI Registration Number as Research Analyst: INH300002365

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