pep canadell gcp-csiro marine and atmospheric research
TRANSCRIPT
Global CarbonObservatory
Pep CanadellGCP-CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
With contributions and thanks to:Philippe Ciais, David Crisp, Roger Dargaville,
Stephen Plummer, Michael Raupach
Integrated Global Carbon Observations - IGCO
Outline
1. Goals and Vision for a global C observatory
2. Major types of observations3. Satellite observations
• Carbon from space: OCO, GOSAT4. In situ observations5. Process understanding
• Linking observations to processes• Fundamental research and model development
1. Goals and Vision of a Carbon Observatory• To provide the long-term observations required to improve understanding of the present state and future behavior of the global carbon cycle, particularly the factors that control the global atmospheric CO2 level and feedbacks to climate.
• To measure carbon sources and sinks from global to regional scales in a way that can inform the development of international climate treaties, and methodologies for national GHGs budgets and domestic policies.
• To monitor and assess the effectiveness of carbon sequestration and/or emission reduction activities on global atmospheric CO2levels, including attribution of sources and sinks by region andsector.
IGCO 2004, GCP 2003
Vision for a Carbon Cycle Model-Data Assimilation System
Ocean remote sensingOcean colourAltimetryWindsSSTSSS
Ocean remote sensingOcean colourAltimetryWindsSSTSSS
Ocean time seriesBiogeochemical
pCO2
Surface observationpCO2
nutrients
Water columninventories
Remote sensing ofVegetation propertiesGrowth CycleFiresBiomassRadiationLand cover /use
Remote sensing ofVegetation propertiesGrowth CycleFiresBiomassRadiationLand cover /use
Ecologicalstudies
Ecologicalstudies
Biomasssoil carboninventories
Eddy-covarianceflux towers
Remote sensing ofAtmospheric CO2
Atmosphericmeasurements
Georeferenceemissions inventories Data
assimilationlink
Climate and weatherfields
Terrestrialcarbonmodel
Terrestrialcarbonmodel
AtmosphericTransport model
AtmosphericTransport model
Oceancarbon model
Oceancarbon model
optimizedfluxes
optimizedmodel
parameters
Lateral fluxesCoastalstudies
Rivers
IGCO 2004
Multiple Constraints Data Assimilation for Carbon Cycle1980-2000
Mean Net Flux to the Atmosphere (gC m-2 y-1)Continental to Sub-continental Resolution
Data Assimilated:• Atmospheric [CO2 ]• AVHRR - PAR
• 12 Functional Veg. Types
Models:• atmospheric
transport model• terrestrial
biosphere (BETHY)
Rayner et al. 2005
TransCom resolution• Transport Model• Atmospheric CO2
2. Types of Observations
Complementary core groups of observations to address three themes:
• Fluxes: observations to enable quantification of the distribution and variability of the CO2 fluxes between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere.
• Pools: Observations on changes in the atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial reservoir carbon pools.
• Process: Measurements related to the important carbon cycle processes that control fluxes.
Atmospheric column CO2 concentrationmeasured from satellites
Atmospheric CO2concentration measured from in situ networks
Land-atmosphere CO2 flux measured via eddy covariance flux network
Global, synoptic satellite observations to extrapolate in situ data
Fluxes
Forest biomassinventories
Soil carboninventories
Carbon storage in the sediments of reservoirs, lakes
Carbon storage in anthropogenic pools, primarily wood products
PoolsIGCO 2004
Basin-scale observations of the air-sea flux (ocean pCO2) from ship-based measurements, drifters and time series
Global, synoptic satellite observations to extrapolate in situ dataWinds, SST, SSS, ocean colour
Fluxes
Sediment trap and sea-floor studies, with a special emphasis on coastal sediments
Basin-scale ocean inventories with full column sampling of carbon system parameters
PoolsIGCO 2004
3. Priorities for Satellite Observations
• Column-integrated atmospheric CO2• Atmospheric CO2 and aerosols• Biomass burning CH4 emissions• Column integrated CH4
• Atmospheric structure, temperature, humidity, winds.
• Land-cover change• Ecosystem disturbances• Directional reflectance• Ocean color• Ancillary terrestrial data• Ancillary oceanic data• Forest aboveground biomass• Wetland coverage
New Measurements
Not new but require new spatial and temporal resolution, orbetter coordination
IGCO 2004
CO2 from Space: Instruments
Instrument Coverage Weight-func Hrl Res CO CH4 CO2 Precision
TOVS trop monthly upper-trop 15 degs no no yes —SCIAMACHY global column 30×60 km yes yes yes 3-5ppmAIRS glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppmIASI glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppmCRIS glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppmOCO sunlit column 1 km no no yes 1–2ppmGOSAT sunlit column — — yes yes 1–2ppmACCLAIM glob weekly lower trop 100m no no yes 1ppmA-SCOPE glob weekly lower trop 100m no no yes 1ppm
Peter Rayner 2005 (unpublished)
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)
• Resolve pole to pole XCO2gradients on regional scales
• Resolve the XCO2 seasonal cycle • Improve constraints on CO2
fluxes (sources and sinks) compared to the current knowledge:– Reduce regional scale flux
uncertainties from >2000 gCm-2 yr-1 to < 200 gC m-2 yr-1
– Reduce continental scale flux uncertainties below 30 gC m-2
yr-1David Chris 2005
Near Infrared Passive SensorLaunched in 2007
OCO Path: 1-day Unselected
OCO Path: Clouds Selected
OCO Path: 3-day Unselected
Uncertainy Reduction from Different Data Sources
Houweling et al. 2005
CO2 Inversions
2 weekly
Data
4. Priorities for in situ observations
• Atmospheric CO2 and Carbon Cycle Tracer Observations.
• Eddy Covariance fluxes of CO2, H2O and Energy.
• Large scale biomass inventories.
• Large scale soil carbon inventories.
• Ocean carbonates.
IGCO 2004
Priority Pools and Processes
PermafrostHL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC
CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Hot Spots
Oceans
Land
GCP 2005
Priority Pools and Processes
PermafrostHL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC
CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Hot Spots
Oceans
Land
GCP 2005
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle
Coupled Climate-Carbon Difference Coupled-Uncoupled
Atmo
sphe
ric C
O 2(p
pm)
220 ppm
NO processes on thawing frozen carbonNO processes on drained peatlandsNO specific fire processesNO processes accounting for nutrient limitation (N, P)
Friedlingstein et al. 2006
5. Attributing Major Processes to Fluxes
Core space based observationLand-cover changeDisturbances (e.g., fire counts and burned areas)Leaf Area Index and related biophysical processesOcean color (which relates to biological activity)
In situ observation related to processesSoil characteristicsWater vapor and energy eddy covariance fluxesPhenology of the terrestrial biosphereNutrient distributions and fluxes (ocean and land)Species composition of ecosystemsAtmospheric tracers (O2:N2 ; 13C-CO2 ; CO ; aerosols).
Carbon Emissions from FiresAtmospheric Tracers: CO, CH4Remote Sensing: Fire Spots, Burned Area
C Flux Anomalies (gC/m2/yr)El Nino 1997-98
Fire C Emissions Anomaly (gC/m2/yr)El Nino 1997-98
1997-982.1 Pg C emissions from fires
66% of the CO2 growth rate anomaly1997-2001
3.53 Pg C emissions from firesRodenbeck et al. 2003; Werf et al. 2004
Fundamental process understanding & model developmentMore Data is not Enough
(17) Transport Models (TransCom)
4 ppm
Global Terrestrial Carbon Uptake
(6) Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
7 PgCyr-1
Cramer et al. 2001
Biospheric Carbon Uptake (Pg C yr-1)10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle
Land
Upta
ke (G
t C/yr
)
Land C Uptake Ocean C Uptake
15 Pg7 Pg
Friedlingstein et al. 2006
Candidate Mechanisms of Current Terrestrial Sinks
1. CO2 fertilization2. Nitrogen fertilization3. Warming and preciptation change4. Regrowth in abandoned croplands5. Fire suppression (woody encroach.)6. Regrowth in previously disturbed forests
– Logging, fire, wind, insects7. Decreased deforestation8. Improved agriculture9. Sediment burial10. Carbon Management (reforestation)
Driven byAtmospheric &Climate change
Driven by Land UseChange
Canadell et al. 2006
Attribution of the terrestrial carbon sink
The Terrestrial Carbon Sink…… will increase in the future if the important mechanisms are physiological
(eg, CO2 Fertilization)
…will decrease in the future if the important mechanism are due to the legacy of past land use (eg, regrowth, thickening..)
Climate warms as predictedClimate warms more rapidly than predicted
Sin
k st
reng
th
Sin
k st
reng
th
TerrestrialCarbonObservations
Approach
RS [CO2]RS Measurements[CO2] MeasuremtsBiomass/NPP and
soil inventories
Regional campaignsField experiments
Disturbances
Eddy Covariance fluxes
Plot studies andexperiments
RegionLandscape
1 km2
1 ha
ContinentBiome
Scale
Modified from GTOS, Cihlar et al. 2001
Process studiesPools
and F
luxes
End