performance-based technology scanning for intercity rail passenger systems

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Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems Carl D. Martland Lexcie Lu Dalong Shi Joseph M. Sussman Massachusetts Institute of Technology Presented to the Transportation Research Board Washington, DC January 13, 2003

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Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems. Carl D. Martland Lexcie Lu Dalong Shi Joseph M. Sussman Massachusetts Institute of Technology Presented to the Transportation Research Board Washington, DC January 13, 2003. Objectives. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail

Passenger SystemsCarl D. Martland

Lexcie Lu

Dalong Shi

Joseph M. Sussman

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Presented to the

Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC

January 13, 2003

Page 2: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Objectives

• Identify technological opportunities that will improve the competitive position of the world’s railways over the next 15-25 years

• Develop methodologies that will help individual railways determine the most promising technologies:

“Performance-Based Technology Scanning”

Page 3: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Performance-BasedTechnology Scanning

• General search for technologies• Technology mapping

– Identify points of leverage for cost, service, safety, or capacity

• Rail systems modeling– Model technologies in terms of performance

capabilities• Customer requirements analysis

– Estimate Customer responses to enhanced rail performance

• Analysis of specific technologies

Page 4: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Approach

• Model rail and competitor performance – Access– Terminal– In-vehicle time

• Model customer utility as a function of time and cost

• The best technological opportunities are the ones that give railroads a competitive edge

Page 5: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Classes of Technologies Relevant to Passenger Services

• Operational technologies

• Accommodation/entertainment technologies for passengers

• Accessibility technologies

• Consolidation/coordination technologies

Page 6: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Key Market Segments

• Medium distance rail service over a dense network as a direct competitor to air, bus, or automobile transportation

• Rail as part of a long, medium-speed intermodal trip involving air or bus connections

• Long distance, medium-speed overnight rail services

Page 7: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Rail and Automobile have the Lowest Direct Cost

(Hypothetical 250-mile Trip)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Direct Cost

Air Non Stop

Air Via Hub

Train

Auto

Rental Car

Page 8: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Air is Fastest – but not by Much (Hypothetical 250-mile Trip)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Travel Time

Air Non StopAir Via HubTrainAutoRental Car

Page 9: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

How the Time is Spent is Important (Hypothetical 250-mile Trip)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Hou

rs

Access Station In-Vehicle

Air Non Stop

Air Via Hub

Train

Auto

Rental Car

Page 10: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Hypothetical Values of TimeFor a Business Traveler

• Working: $100/hour (a benefit)• Entertainment: $0• Waiting time in terminal: ($10/hour)• Access & traveling: ($20/hour)• Processing in terminal: ($50/hour)• Extra time relative to fastest option: ($150/hour)

Page 11: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Disutility of Time for Business Travelers

(Hypothetical 250-mile Trip)

-300-200-100

0100200300400500600700

Do

lla

rs

Acc

ess

Sta

tio

n

In-

Veh

icle

Ex

tra

Tim

e

To

tal

Air Non StopAir Via HubTrainAutoRental Car

Page 12: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Other Types of Travelers Will View the Same Options Differently

• Value of time can be much lower

• Opportunity to do work may not be relevant

• Opportunities to dine or shop may be important

0102030405060708090

100

Business Vacation

Value of time

Page 13: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Relating Utility to Mode Split

• Assumptions– Mode split is dependent upon perceived utility– Value of time provides a meaningful measure

of utility – Logit model relates mode share to utilities

• Goal– Demonstrate how various types of technologies

can enhance rail competitiveness

Page 14: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Rail and Auto Capture the Market if Air Travel is Expensive

(250 Miles)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Mod

e Sh

are

One Person (Base) Two People

Air Non StopAir Via HubTrainAutoRental Car

Page 15: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

However, Discount Air ServicesCapture Most of the Market

(250 Miles)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mod

e Sh

are

Base Discount Air Shuttle

Air Non StopAir Via HubTrainAutoRental Car

Page 16: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Rail Can Respond in Various Ways (250 Miles)

01020304050607080

Mod

e Sh

are

Shuttle LowFares

HighSpeed

EasyAccess

Air Non Stop

Air Via Hub

Train

Auto

Rental Car

Page 17: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Rail is Most Effective at Intermediate Distances

(Easy Rail vs. Shuttle)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mod

e S

har

e

125 250 375 500 625

Air Non StopAir Via HubTrainAutoRental Car

Page 18: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Other Markets

• Air-rail intermodal– Rail can provide connections to major air hubs,

eliminating need for short flights

– Rail can help integrate operation of nearby airports

– Integrated terminal operations are key

• Air-bus intermodal• Overnight rail

– Timing and comfort may be more important than speed

– Opportunities to link with express package services

Page 19: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

There IS a Role for Rail anda Need for Technology

• Rail can be competitive in many markets– Price, speed, travel time, comfort, and

convenience all are relevant

• Technologies that affect ANY of these factors can be relevant

• PBTS provides a methodology for comparing the whole range of potentially available technologies

Page 20: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Utility is the Key, not Speed!

• Importance of passengers utility:

Utility of total tripTotal trip time

In-vehicle time

Time spent travelling at high speed

Page 21: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Strategies for Making Rail More Competitive

• Systems issues:– Number, quality, location, and accessibility of

stations– Effective services, based upon network design,

frequency of service, connection times, and operations control

– Enhanced passenger amenities on trains and in and near terminals

– Better integration with air and bus services

Page 22: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Technological Research Needs to Go Beyond “High Speed Rail”

• Technological R&D should seek technologies with the most cost-effective impact on passenger’s utility

• Time spent traveling at full speed is likely the least onerous part of the trip – and the hardest to speed up!

• Ease of access, efficient terminals, and opportunities to make better use of time in trains and in stations require much more than traditional rail technologies.

Page 23: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Technological Opportunities

• Communications & Information Technology– Customer service, personal entertainment and

productivity, coordination and control of operations

• Dramatically better intermodal coordination– Ticketing, security, baggage handling, terminal design

and coordination of operations– Improved transit, highway, and pedestrian access

• More effective combinations of passenger and freight services – Joint use of infrastructure, of trains, and of special-

purpose equipment

Page 24: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Concluding Observations

• Technological advances will be rapid – but they will NOT be driven by needs of railways

• Highway and air transportation will likely benefit more directly from R&D

• Accessibility, comfort, and productivity of time can be major assets for railways

• “High Speed Rail” is a limited and possibly a limiting concept. What’s needed is:

– “Competitive, Integrated, Effective Rail” • This may seem obvious, but take a look at DOT research

budgets and State DOT rail plans

Page 25: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Further Reading: Metropolitan Access

• How access might improve intercity rail

• Customer-focused, market-pull approach to technologies

• Urban infrastructure serves everyone

Please pick up a handout as you leave

From the Limiteds and the Zephyrsto the 21st Century MetroFlyer

(or The Vital Role of Metropolitan Access in Intercity Passenger Transportation)

Alex Lu and Carl Martland, Center for Transportation Studies, MIT 1-153, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139-4301. [email protected],

[email protected]

Presented at the 82nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., January 2003.

The Modern Day Olympian Hiawatha – a “Limited” – at Glenview, Illinois.

Wouldn’t it be wonderful if this train, like the North Shore Line, also made stops on the Loop?

Page 26: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Further Reading: Technology Evaluation

• Understanding technologies and passenger utilities

• Evaluating technologies

• Technology-push approach

Please ask for handout No 2 as you leave

Are High Speed Rail CustomersReally Speed Demons?

(or Performance-Based Technology Scanningfor Intercity Rail Passenger Systems)

Carl D. Martland, Lexcie Lu, Dalong Shi, and Joseph M. Sussman. Center for Transportation Studies, MIT 1-153,

77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139-4301. [email protected]

Presented at the 82nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., January 2003.

Dear Customer, Would you like the Cadillac, the Porsche, or the SUV?

(Amtrak F-40 #280 and AEM-7 #901 at Boston South Station, Mass.)

Page 27: Performance-Based Technology Scanning for Intercity Rail Passenger Systems

Still Like More Information?

• Compendium of MIT’s recent rail research– Technology Scanning:

Passenger & Freight– Metropolitan Access– Open Access?

Please ask for a CD-ROM or leave your business card