performance indicators and texas re 2018 assessment of reliability performance · 2019-07-18 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
David PenneySr. Principal Engineer, Reliability Services
Performance Indicatorsand
Texas RE 2018 Assessment of Reliability Performance
ROS May 2, 2019
2
Objectives
Review Performance Indicators
Outline Observations
• North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) State of Reliability report
Overview Activities and Emerging Issues
Data Sources
• Transmission Availability Data Systems (TADS)• Generation Availability Data Systems (GADS)• Misoperation Information Data Analysis System (MIDAS)• Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) PI System• ERCOT Market Information System (MIS) historical data
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3
Focus Areas
Resource Adequacy and Performance
System Resilience
Changing Resource Mix
Human Performance
Bulk Power System Planning
Loss of Situational Awareness
Protection and Control Systems
Physical and Cyber Security
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NERC’s Inherent Risk Mapping 2018-19
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Key Performance Trends for 2014 through 2018
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Key Performance Indicator Negative Trend * Stable Trend * Positive Trend *
Resource Adequacy
Planning reserve marginNatural gascurtailments
Sufficient operating reserves maintained during summer and winter peaks
Transmission Performance
Outage rates per circuit & per 100 miles0 IROL exceedances
Resource Performance
Inverter generation low voltage ride-through
EFOR ratesNo Balancing Contingency event failures
Primary frequency response
System Inertia
Negative inertia trend during minimum load hours Stable trend during other hours
Misoperation RateIncreased rate in 2018 5-year overall stable trend
Human PerformanceStable trend in generation HP errors
Improving trend in transmission and misoperation HP errors
Situational Awareness7 Loss of EMS events in 2018 State Estimator convergence rate
6
Resource Adequacy
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Average recovery time from generation lossevents was 6.2 minutes in 2018 versus 5.4minutes for calendar year 2017. The averageevent recovery time is showing a long-termgradual increase since 2012, but is still wellwithin NERC requirements.
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Event Recovery Time (Minutes) - Reportable Balancing Contingency Events
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
NERC Primary Frequency Response Per BAL-003 (MW per 0.1 Hz)
Primary frequency response metrics continue to be maintained at high levels.
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Resource Adequacy
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• The impact of a generator loss is becoming more predictable based on system conditions.
• The relationships between inertia, rate-of-change of frequency, and the MW loss during frequency events are well understood.
R² = 0.6706
0.300
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0.700
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
TI UFLS Margin vs. MW Loss % of RLPCUFLS Margin
MW Loss as a Percentage of RLPCR² = 0.7172
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0.000 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007
TI RoCoF (3 sec) vs. MW Loss (MW) divided by Inertia (MW-sec)
MW Loss/Inertia
RoCoF (3 sec)
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Resource Adequacy
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Total Coal, Lignite,Fluidized Bed
GG - Gas Nuclear Gas Turbine/JetEngine (Simple
Cycle Operation)
Combined CycleBlock
CC GT units CC steam units
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018MW Weighted EFOR Fossil Performance Metrics
In 2018, 2,026 immediate forced outage events, totaling 120,037 hours, were reported in GADS.
The majority of the immediate forced outage events were due to boiler control or other control system issues, blade path temperature spreads, fuel piping, human error, and vibration issues.
2018 Fossil Unit Forced Outages
Major System
Number of Forced Outage Events
Total Duration (hours)
Total Capacity
(MW)
Median Duration per Event (hours)
Median Capacity per Event (MW)
Average Duration per Event (hours)
Average Capacity per Event (MW)
Boiler System 199 9,941.8 72,873.2 8.8 300.0 49.9 366.2Balance of Plant 399 12,481.1 84,564.3 4.9 170.0 31.3 211.9Steam Turbine/Generator 1,091 35,929.3 178,597.3 3.6 157.5 32.9 163.7Heat Recovery Steam Generator 92 5,647.6 18,962.9 21.8 185.0 61.4 206.1Pollution Control Equipment 31 938.0 4,431.0 5.3 57.0 30.3 142.9External 114 54,371.7 18,432.9 15.3 102.7 476.9 161.7Regulatory, Safety, Environmental 14 182.8 1,471.6 13.9 85.0 13.1 105.1Personnel/Procedure Errors 78 376.6 19,627.7 2.3 182.0 4.8 251.6Other 8 168.0 247.0 1.8 46.8 21.0 30.9
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Resource Adequacy
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
All Summer Winter Shoulder
Wind GenerationResource Equiv Forced Outage Rate Resource Equiv Scheduled Outage Rate
Wind Capacity Factor, Jun-Aug 2018, HE1500-1900
• 2018 was the first full year of mandatory reporting for wind generators > 200 MW in WindGADS
• In 2018, 81 ERCOT wind facilities submitted a total of 795 unit-months of data
• WindGADS provides similar metrics to GADS (EFOR, EAF, NCF, etc.)
• In 2019, mandatory reporting begins for wind units > 100 MW
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Resource Adequacy
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Winter Spring Summer Fall
Sum of Unavailable MW due to Gas Curtailments
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
• Significant increase in the unavailable generation capacity due to natural gas fuel curtailments in 2018.
• Most curtailments occurred in January 2018 during two extreme cold events that month.
11
System Resilience
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3 3
56
43
7
109
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109
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14
65
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30
20111stQtr
20112ndQtr
20113rdQtr
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20121stQtr
20122ndQtr
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20124thQtr
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20132ndQtr
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20184thQtr
EventsTotal Events Cat 4 & 5 Cat 3 Cat 2 Cat 1 Cat 0 Generator Trips >450MW
• There were no Category 2 or higher events in 2018.• During one system event, the voltage collapsed in a local area following a transmission line
fault, resulting in the loss of fourteen 138 kV and 69 kV lines and 140 MW of load.
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System Resilience
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ERCOT 345kV Outages / circuit ERCOT 345kV Outages/100 mi-yearERCOT 138kV Sustained Outages / circuit ERCOT 138kV Sustained Outages/100 mi-year
• 345kV and 138kV transmission outage rates remained stable.
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System Resilience
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345 kV circuits111 sustained outages3,447 outage hours
345 kV transformers28 sustained outages19,172 outage hours
138 kV circuits429 sustained outages7,514 outage hours
For 345 kV transmission circuits, failed transmission circuit equipment accounted for 8% of cause and 76% of duration.
For 138 kV transmission circuits, failed substation and transmission circuit equipment accounted for 33% of cause and 85% of duration.
14%
14%
0%5%
5%
4%
22%
7%
8%
2%
5%
14%
2018 345 kV Sustained Outage CauseWeather, ExcludingLightningLightning
Environmental
Contamination
Foreign Interference
Fire
Failed AC SubstationEquipmentFailed Protection SystemEquipmentFailed AC CircuitEquipmentPower System Condition
Human Error
Unknown
3% 0…0% 1%1%
2%5%
3%
76%
2%1%
1% 4%
2018 345 kV Sustained Outage DurationWeather, ExcludingLightningLightning
Environmental
Contamination
Foreign Interference
Fire
Failed AC SubstationEquipmentFailed ProtectionSystem EquipmentFailed AC CircuitEquipmentPower SystemConditionHuman Error
Unknown
Other
4%2%
0%0% 1%
0%
0%
60%
0%
2%
24%
1% 2%1%
1%1%
2018 138 kV Sustained Outage DurationWeather, ExcludingLightningLightning
Environmental
Contamination
Foreign Interference
Vandalism, Terrorism, orMalicious ActsFire
Failed AC SubstationEquipmentFailed AC/DC TerminalEquipmentFailed Protection SystemEquipmentFailed AC CircuitEquipmentVegetation
18%
19%
0%
1%5%
0%1%
18%
0%
3%
15%
1%2%
4%
9%3%
2018 138 kV Sustained Outage Cause Weather, ExcludingLightningLightning
Environmental
Contamination
Foreign Interference
Vandalism, Terrorism, orMalicious ActsFire
Failed AC SubstationEquipmentFailed AC/DC TerminalEquipmentFailed Protection SystemEquipmentFailed AC CircuitEquipmentVegetation
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Changing Resource Mix
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0%
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Fuel Type as % of Total Energy
Gas Coal Nuclear Renewable12 per. Mov. Avg. (Gas) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Coal) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Nuclear) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Renewable)
• The portion of total energy supplied by natural gas increased in 2018, up from 38% in 2017 to 44% in 2018 due to retirement of multiple coal units.
• Coal’s portion of total energy decreased from 32% in 2017 to 25% in 2018.
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Changing Resource Mix
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0
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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75
MW of ERCOT Units Reporting GADS by Age
Coal/Lignite Nuclear Gas Waste Heat Other
• There is an age bubble around 35–39 years which is driven by coal and some gas units.• Another age bubble around occurs at 12–17 years comprised almost exclusively of
combined cycle units.
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Changing Resource Mix
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Year Minimum Inertia (GW-s) Load (MW) Net Load (MW) IRR %2015 130.3 27,798 20,569 26.1%2016 138.4 26,839 14,797 44.9%2017 130.0 28,443 13,178 53.7%2018 128.8 28,412 13,452 52.7%
0
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
IRR % vs Inertia (MW-sec)
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Changing Resource Mix
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120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Inertia Duration Curve
2015 2016 2017 2018
Iner
tia(M
W-s
ec)
Number of Hours
• Average inertia increased across most operating hours in 2018, but decreased during minimum net load conditions.
18
Human Error Performance
ROS May 2, 2019
Operator error58%
Maintenance personnel error
19%
Contractor error12%
Operating procedure error
5%
Maintenance procdure error
5%
Contractor procedure error
1%
Generator Human Error - by Cause
• 138 kV circuit outage rates caused by human error are showing an improving trend. Generator outage rates caused by human error remain stable.
• Since 2014, there have been 498 generator immediate forced outages caused by human error.
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
AC Circuit300-399 kV
AC Circuit100-199 kV
Transformer300-399 kV
GeneratorForced Outages
ProtectionSystem
Misoperations
Outages Rates Initiated by Human Error
2015 2016 2017 2018
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Human Error Performance
ROS May 2, 2019
• Cause coding for system events continues to yield outstanding data.
• 47% of root cause and contributing causes for system events are related to potential human performance issues.
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50Event Analysis Cause Codes
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Bulk Power System Planning
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50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
325,000
350,000
375,000
400,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual Energy Peak DemandGWH
• Load zones with the largest percentage energy increases are the West load zone followed by the North load zone.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
LZ_AEN LZ_CPS LZ_HOUSTON LZ_LCRA LZ_NORTH LZ_RAYBN LZ_SOUTH LZ_WEST
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Total Energy by Load Zone (GWH)
• Total annual energy usage was 376.8 GWH, an increase of 5.4% over 2017.
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Bulk Power System Planning
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Summer Reserve Margin EstimatesERCOT December 2018 CDR NERC December 2018 LTRA
• Reference planning reserve margin is 13.75%, based on a 1 event in 10 year loss of load probability.
22
Loss of Situational Awareness
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Loss of EMS and SCADA Events Reported by YearCategory 1 events include:• Loss of operator ability to
remotely monitor, control BES elements,
• Loss of communications from SCADA Remote Terminal Units (RTU),
• Unavailability of Inter-Control Center Communications Protocol (ICCP) links,
• Loss of the ability to remotely monitor and control generating units via Automatic Generation Control (AGC), and
• Unacceptable State Estimator or Contingency Analysis solutions for more than 30 minutes.
EMS/SCADA events are a focus point at NERC and federal levels.
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Loss of Situational Awareness
ROS May 2, 2019
80000
84000
88000
92000
96000
100000
104000
108000
112000
116000
120000
90.00%
91.00%
92.00%
93.00%
94.00%
95.00%
96.00%
97.00%
98.00%
99.00%
100.00%
Apr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15Ap
r-15
Jul-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-16
Apr-1
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l-16
Oct
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Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7O
ct-1
7Ja
n-18
Apr-1
8Ju
l-18
Oct
-18
% System Availability Total Telemetry Points
• ERCOT telemetry performance criteria states that 92% of all telemetry provided to ERCOT must achieve a quarterly availability of 80%. For 2018, the average number of telemetry points failing this metric was approximately 4,011 each month, or 3.8% of the total system telemetry points.
24
Protection and Control System Performance
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0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
Overall 345kV 138kV 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Overall)% Misoperation Rate
25
Protection and Control System Performance
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702011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Questions?
ROS May 2, 2019