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Perils of Perception | 2017

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1

2017

PERILS OFPERCEPTION

PERILS OF PERCEPTION | 2017 2

These are the latest findings from the Ipsos Perils of Perception survey. The results highlight how wrong people across 38 countries are about some key issues and features of the population in their country

ARE NOTPERCEPTIONS

REALITY…

NOT AS BAD AS…THINGS ARE

THEY SEEM…


MURDER RATE

4Perils of Perception | 2017

85%76%76%

62%60%59%

53%53%52%52%51%

49%48%

44%43%

41%41%40%

38%38%

36%36%35%35%34%34%34%33%32%

23%

11%18%

12%24%

23%26%

27%23%26%

36%28%

35%31%

35%32%

32%34%34%

34%34%

34%39%

44%28%

36%40%

31%31%

42%30%

4%3%

3%10%

11%7%

14%12%

13%8%

16%8%

13%10%19%

19%21%

19%17%

22%21%

19%10%

21%24%

20%28%

18%14%

32%

1%3%

9%5%6%

8%5%

13%8%

4%5%

8%9%

11%7%

8%4%

7%11%

7%8%7%

11%16%

6%5%

7%18%

12%16%

-29% +57% 0% +44% -29% -11% -50% -42% -11% 0% -60% -39% -31% -11% -9% -46% -54% -50% -47% -50% +6% -29% -10% -68% -25% -46% -78% -40% -33% -65%

South AfricaMexicoBrazilPeruIndiaArgentinaIndonesiaIsraelUSASwedenColombiaItalyNew ZealandFranceDenmarkNetherlandsSerbiaSpain AustraliaHong KongCanadaGreat BritainBelgiumPolandHungaryNorwaySingaporeJapanGermanyChina

Do you think the murder rate in [COUNTRY] is higher, lower, or about the same as it was in 2000?

Only a small minority of people in most countries think the murder rate has declined in their country since 2000, despite that being true in most countries, and the overall rate across these countries having declined by 29%.

Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for full details of all sources.

% change(-29%)Country

don’t know(average = 15)(average = 30)

lowerabout the samehigher(average = 7)(average = 46)


TERRORISTDEATHS


123 270 4227 2159 24 41 4322 3468 311 62 1 77 51 36 10138 8174 554 523 7 6 6 5 7 0 137 10 236 190 348 8 7 10 2 3 438 814 31 12 10269 1792 60 4 443 209 34 19 1218 2803 2585 44 139 3 5 0 7 0 158 0 171 798 4 0 0 0 8222 110 3 2

65%60%

51%49%

47%45%

44%44%42%41%41%40%

38%37%36%36%35%

34%33%

31%31%

29%28%28%27%26%

24%23%

21%20%19%18%17%

15%

13%18%

27%27%

29%32%34%

32%25%

32%38%

37%28%

29%38%

36%45%

27%30%

37%38%

22%35%

23%32%35%40%42%

31%34%

44%51%

26%48%

6%10%

7%17%

15%14%

8%18%

26%12%

13%10%

12%22%

13%13%

7%22%

21%23%

19%37%12%38%

26%26%22%

14%33%

28%25%

16%47%

23%

16%12%

16%7%

10%9%

14%7%7%

15%7%

14%22%

13%14%

15%13%

17%16%

8%12%12%

25%11%

14%13%14%

21%15%

18%12%

15%10%

15%

FranceTurkeyBelgiumPhilippinesGreat BritainNorwayGermanyIndiaIndonesiaAustraliaSwedenSouth KoreaBrazilUSACanadaNetherlandsDenmarkIsraelMalaysiaColombiaItalySpain JapanRussiaSouth AfricaChileSingaporePolandArgentinaChinaHong KongNew ZealandPeruHungary

less(average = 19)(average = 33)

In the 15-year period after the September 11th attacks (2002-2016) do you think there were more, less, or about the same number of deaths caused by terrorist attacks in [COUNTRY] compared with the 15 year period before the September 11th attacks (1985-2000)? The 15-year period after the September 11th attacks we are asking you to think about is from 2002 to 2016 and does not include 2017.

Very few people in most countries think deaths from terrorist attacks are lower in recent years, despite that being the case in most countries.

don’t know


Actual 1985 -

2000Countryabout the samemore

(average = 14)(average = 34)

Actual 2002 -

2016


IMMIGRANTPRISONERS


+32%+31%

+28%+27%

+25%+25%

+23%+22%+21%+21%

+20%+19%+18%+18%+18%

+17%+16%+16%+16%

+15%+14%+14%+14%+13%

+12%+11%+11%+11%

+9%+8%+8%

+3%+2%

+1%+1%

-14%-46%

Out of every 100 prisoners in [COUNTRY], about how many do you think were born in a foreign country?

Most countries greatly overestimate the proportion of prisoners in their country that are immigrants, with the Netherlands, South Africa, France and the USA particularly likely to guess too high.

NetherlandsSouth AfricaFranceUSANew ZealandArgentinaGreat BritainPeruAustraliaSingaporeMexicoDenmarkRussiaBrazilChilePhilippinesNorwayIndiaIndonesiaColombiaItalyJapanGermanyTurkeySpain PolandHungaryChinaBelgiumSerbiaSouth KoreaIsraelMalaysiaSwedenMontenegroHong KongSaudi Arabia

Avg. guess(28)

Actual(15)


Country too high% point differencetoo low

51 19.137 6.349 21.732 5.227 1.931 6.234 11.824 2.140 18.730 9.921 1.247 28.023 4.318 0.421 3.417 0.450 33.817 1.516 0.615 0.848 34.419 5.645 31.316 2.140 28.212 1.016 4.911 0.454 45.011 3.511 3.542 38.931 29.132 30.916 15.116 29.926 72.0


TEENAGEBIRTHS


+41+40+39+39

+34+34

+31+30

+27+26+25

+24+23

+22+19

+18+18+17+17+17+16+16

+15+15+15+14+14

+13+11+11+11+10+10+10

+8+8+7

too highAvg. guess

(20)Actual

(2)What percentage of women and girls aged 15 to 19 in [COUNTRY] do you think give birth each year?

% point differencetoo low


All countries overestimate teenage births, and many are hugely wrong, particularly in Latin America and South Africa.

But even countries with very low levels of teenage births overestimate significantly. For example, actual rates are under 1% in Canada and France but the average guess is that one in five teenagers get pregnant each year.

BrazilSouth AfricaColombiaMexicoPeruPhilippinesArgentinaChileJapanMalaysiaIndonesiaIndiaTurkeyUSACanadaRussiaGreat BritainFranceAustraliaNew ZealandItalyHungaryGermanyMontenegroPolandBelgiumSpain SerbiaNetherlandsChinaSingaporeSwedenIsraelHong KongSouth KoreaDenmarkNorway

48 6.744 4.444 4.945 6.239 4.840 6.337 6.435 4.827 0.427 1.430 4.926 2.326 2.724 2.120 0.920 2.319 1.418 0.918 1.219 2.317 0.618 1.816 0.616 1.216 1.315 0.815 0.815 1.912 0.412 0.711 0.411 0.611 0.910 0.38 0.28 0.48 0.6

Country


AND AUTISMVACCINES


44%44%

31%30%30%

29%28%

27%25%24%23%22%22%

20%20%19%19%19%18%17%17%17%16%16%16%

14%14%14%14%14%12%12%11%10%10%10%9%

8%

30%36%

47%35%35%

35%33%

40%24%

51%32%

50%36%

48%35%

29%50%52%

23%38%

48%39%

32%31%31%

44%38%

28%47%

27%63%

36%40%

35%28%

42%51%

39%

26%20%

22%34%34%

36%39%

34%52%

25%45%

28%42%

32%45%

52%31%30%

59%45%

35%45%

52%53%53%

42%48%

58%39%

59%25%

52%49%

54%62%

48%40%

53%


Country% saying true % saying false% saying don’t know

Do you think the following statement is true or false?

Some vaccines cause autism in healthy children

Nearly six in ten people across the countries as a whole say they are unsure or believe that there is a link between vaccines and autism in healthy children, despite the claim being widely discredited.

Some countries, particularly Montenegro and India, have very high levels of belief in the claim.

MontenegroIndiaTurkeySouth AfricaMalaysiaIsraelPhilippinesSerbiaSwedenSaudi ArabiaIndonesiaHong KongDenmarkSingaporeGreat BritainUSAChinaSouth KoreaNorwayPolandFrancePeruCanadaChileNew ZealandColombiaItalyMexicoRussiaAustraliaJapanGermanyNetherlandsBrazilArgentinaHungaryBelgiumSpain

(average = 20) (average = 42)(average = 38)


DIABETES


+38%+38%

+37%+35%

+34%+33%+33%

+31%+30%+30%+29%+29%

+27%+27%+27%

+26%+25%+25%+25%+25%

+24%+24%+23%+23%+23%+22%+22%+22%+21%+21%+21%+20%

+18%+16%+16%+15%+15%

+11%

too highAvg. guess

(34)Actual

(8)Out of every 100 people aged 20-79 in [COUNTRY], about how many do you think have diabetes?

% point differencetoo low


People in every country overestimate the extent of diabetes in their country, with some thinking nearly half of their population have the condition.

PhilippinesIndiaBrazilPeruIndonesiaSouth AfricaChileMexicoArgentinaItalyMalaysiaColombiaTurkeyAustraliaHungaryFranceBelgiumPolandSouth KoreaSingaporeGermanyIsraelSpain USACanadaGreat BritainSaudi ArabiaSerbiaJapanNew ZealandNetherlandsHong KongMontenegroChinaDenmarkSwedenRussiaNorway

45 747 947 1042 740 741 843 1047 1636 635 547 1839 1040 1332 534 731 530 531 629 435 1131 731 831 834 1130 727 542 2032 1027 628 726 628 829 1126 1023 720 524 917 6

Country


SUGAR


58%20%

12%12%12%

10%10%10%

9%8%

8%8%8%7%

5%5%5%5%5%4%4%4%4%4%4%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%2%2%

In which 3 of these countries do you think people consume the most sugar per person? Please rank your answers in order, using number 1 to indicate the country where people consume the most sugar per person.

The USA is correctly seen as the most sugar consuming country, but some countries are mentioned despite being lower down the ranking, like Great Britain and France.

USAGreat BritainGermanyFranceChinaMexicoCanadaBrazilAustraliaItalyIndiaTurkeyRussiaSpainJapanIndonesiaBelgiumSaudi ArabiaArgentinaMalaysiaNetherlandsHong KongSwedenColombiaSouth AfricaNew ZealandDenmarkChileSouth KoreaPolandSingaporePeruHungaryIsraelNorway

126 193 6

103 269 1651 2493 789 848 2596 458 185 35

35 2820 3270 1557 2015 3395 581 1273 1433 29

103 354 2286 936 2742 2683 1175 1359 1731 3157 1932 3056 2151 2315 3483 10

Grams per capita per day Rank% mentions of each country in top 3 across all participantsCountry



69%65%

62%60%

56%56%

54%54%

52%51%

49%48%47%

45%42%42%

40%40%

37%37%36%

35%35%34%

34%33%

25%22%22%

18%15%15%

4%

The USA, Canada, Great Britain and New Zealand are the most likely to correctly guess that the USA is the highest consumer of sugar per person.

USACanadaGreat BritainNew ZealandFranceIsraelAustraliaSpainColombiaSouth AfricaItalySwedenArgentinaJapanRussiaBelgiumDenmarkPeruChileHong KongSingaporeBrazilMexicoSouth KoreaGermanyPolandChinaIndonesiaTurkeyIndiaMalaysiaSaudi ArabiaHungary

126 189 893 683 1169 1615 3496 470 1536 2742 2658 1886 973 1457 2020 3295 575 1356 2159 1754 2232 3048 2593 731 31

103 257 1951 2415 3335 285 35

33 2981 1251 23

Grams per capita per day Rank% of people in each country who correctly guessed USA as number 1


Country


84%83%

73%70%

68%68%

65%64%

62%62%

60%58%57%56%56%

55%52%51%

50%49%

48%47%46%

44%43%43%42%

40%40%

37%37%

31%27%

20%

Mexico is most likely to name their own country in the top 3 highest sugar consuming countries in the world, closely followed by the USA.

% of people who picked their own country in the top 3


MexicoUSAGreat BritainMalaysiaAustraliaCanadaBrazilChileSouth AfricaIndiaGermanyIndonesiaTurkeyNew ZealandFranceDenmarkArgentinaIsraelSpainHungaryRussiaSwedenSaudi ArabiaItalyNetherlandsSouth KoreaPeruChinaColombiaBelgiumPolandSingaporeJapanHong Kong

Country

93 7126 193 633 2996 489 848 2559 1742 265 35

103 215 3335 2883 1169 1675 1373 1415 3470 1551 2320 3286 981 058 18

103 331 3156 2151 2436 2795 557 1932 3057 2054 22

Grams per capita per day Rank


ALCOHOL


43%31%

28%19%

16%12%

10%8%

8%7%

6%6%6%

5%5%5%5%4%4%4%4%4%

3%3%

3%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%

RussiaUSAGermanyGreat BritainFrancePolandMexicoItalySpainAustraliaBrazilSerbiaChinaNetherlandsSwedenDenmarkCanadaHungaryJapanSouth KoreaNorwayBelgiumArgentinaColombiaChileNew ZealandMontenegroSouth AfricaTurkeyHong KongIndiaPeruPhilippinesSingaporeIsraelSaudi ArabiaIndonesiaMalaysia

Rank

Litres of pure alcohol per

capita per yearIn which 3 of these countries do you think people consume the most alcohol per person? Please rank your answers in order, using number 1 to indicate the country where people consume the most alcohol per person.

% mentions of each country in top 3 across all participants


Russia is seen as the booziest nation in the world, when actually they only rank 7th out of the 38 countries. Very few people pick out the actual top country, Belgium.

Countrymentioned

10.12 78.82 13

11.03 310.66 611.5 2

10.71 55.26 287.56 189.25 119.7 8

7.32 219.09 125.78 268.68 157.3 22

9.64 98.1 16

10.88 47.55 199.33 105.97 2512.6 17.93 174.38 307.16 238.7 14

6.56 247.38 201.45 352.86 323.07 315.38 274.52 291.79 342.62 330.09 370.09 370.52 36


12.6 17.55 197.32 214.38 308.82 130.52 361.79 3411.5 29.7 8

4.52 2911.03 310.66 6

8.7 145.38 278.1 16

1.45 3510.12 77.93 175.26 287.56 189.25 117.16 237.38 202.86 323.07 312.62 330.09 37

10.71 55.78 269.64 99.33 10

10.88 49.09 126.56 24

5%3%

2%2%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%

Even Belgians are unlikely to pick themselves as the highest alcohol consumers. Only 5% do.

Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for full details of all sources. *indicates a value between 0 and 0.5

Country % of people in each country correctly guessing Belgium number 1

BelgiumJapanBrazilColombiaUSAMalaysiaSingaporeFranceAustraliaPhilippinesGermanyGreat BritainNew ZealandPeruCanadaTurkeyRussiaArgentinaMexicoItalySpainChileSouth AfricaHong KongIndiaIsraelIndonesiaPolandChinaDenmarkSouth KoreaHungarySerbiaMontenegro

Rank


capita per year


DenmarkGreat BritainPolandRussiaAustraliaSouth KoreaUSAChileMexicoHungaryBrazilSouth AfricaSerbiaFranceGermanyChinaColombiaNew ZealandSpainPeruMontenegroCanadaPhilippinesIndiaArgentinaBelgiumNetherlandsSwedenItalyTurkeyIsraelJapanHong KongSingaporeIndonesiaMalaysia

62%60%

59%59%

58%54%53%53%

50%49%49%49%

47%41%

36%35%35%

34%32%

29%28%

26%25%25%

23%21%

18%16%

13%13%

10%6%6%

5%4%4%

Denmark, Great Britain, Poland, Russia and Australia all have strong self-images as boozy nations, with around six in ten in each picking their own country as one of top 3 alcohol consumers.


Country % of people who picked their own country in the top 3

9.64 910.66 610.71 510.12 7

9.7 89.33 108.82 137.16 235.26 28

10.88 47.32 217.38 209.09 1211.5 2

11.03 35.78 264.38 308.7 14

9.25 115.38 276.56 248.1 16

4.52 293.07 317.93 1712.6 18.68 157.3 22

7.56 181.45 352.62 337.55 192.86 321.79 340.09 370.52 36

Rank


capita per year


HEALTH RATING


+12%+1%

0-1%

-6%-9%

-10%-11%-11%

-12%-13%

-14%-14%-14%

-15%-15%

-16%-17%-17%

-18%-18%

-19%-19%

-20%-22%

-23%-26%

-28%-28%-28%

-29%-29%

-32%-35%

-41%

Avg. guess(53)

Actual(70)

When asked in a survey in [COUNTRY], out of every 100 people, about how many do you think said their own health was very good or good?

47 3558 5754 5438 3956 6256 6548 5865 7648 5955 6756 6952 6653 6757 7157 7261 7654 7041 5863 8057 7556 7438 5755 7448 6859 8135 5855 8142 7061 8948 7656 8559 8855 8755 9039 80

Country

JapanPhilippinesPeruRussiaMexicoGermanyPolandNorwayChileFranceChinaItalySouth AfricaSpainDenmarkNetherlands IndiaHong KongIsraelArgentinaBelgiumHungaryGreat BritainTurkeySwedenSerbiaSingaporeBrazilCanadaColombiaAustraliaUSAMalaysiaNew ZealandSouth Korea

Nearly all countries think people report their own health as much worse than they actually say in surveys, and some hugely so, particularly in South Korea and New Zealand.

too high% point differencetoo low



SUICIDE


+26%+24%

+18%+17%

+16%+16%

+11%+10%+10%

+9%+7%+7%

+5%+5%+5%+4%+4%+4%

+3%+2%+1%

+1%0

0-3%

-7%-8%

-10%-11%

-16%-17%

-30%-36%

Avg. guess(20)

Actual(17)

Out of every 100 deaths of women and girls aged 15 to 24 in [COUNTRY], about how many do you think were by suicide?

Country

South AfricaBrazilMexicoPeruColombiaPhilippinesItalyTurkeyUSAFranceSerbiaChileArgentinaCanadaMontenegroIsraelRussiaDenmarkHungaryGreat BritainGermanyBelgiumSpain PolandAustraliaSwedenNetherlandsNorwayNew ZealandSingaporeJapanSouth KoreaHong Kong

There is a real split in accuracy about the proportion of deaths by suicide among young women. Some countries hugely overestimate (South Africa and Brazil), some are pretty close, and some hugely underestimate the significance of the issue in their country (Hong Kong and South Korea).


26 0.629 4.325 7.323 6.223 7.220 3.520 9.520 9.623 12.927 17.711 4.122 14.918 12.726 21.211 6.315 10.816 11.816 12.112 9.021 18.518 16.821 20.017 16.313 13.126 28.926 32.816 24.319 29.326 37.318 34.125 42.414 44.114 50.0


In most countries we have used a source for the actual number of deaths that were by suicide that defines suicide as death by intentional self-harm (ICD-10 codes X60-X84). In the UK, we have used a source that defines suicide as death by intentional self-harm and also death caused by undetermined intent (ICD-10 codes Y10-Y34). This is because this is the definition of suicide used widely in the UK.


+26%+25%

+18%+18%

+17%+17%

+13%+7%+6%

+5%+4%

+4%+4%+3%

+2%+1%

-1%-1%

-3%-4%

-5%-5%-5%

-6%-9%

-12%-12%-12%

-13%-15%

-20%-21%

-24%

Avg. guess(20)

Actual(20)

Out of every 100 deaths of men and boys aged 15 to 24 in [COUNTRY], about how many do you think were by suicide?

Country

South AfricaBrazilColombiaPeruPhilippinesMexicoTurkeyFranceItalyUSAIsraelArgentinaSwedenMontenegroChileSpain CanadaSerbiaRussiaGreat BritainAustraliaNorwayGermanyBelgiumSingaporeNetherlandsHungaryNew ZealandPolandDenmarkJapanSouth KoreaHong Kong


27 1.129 3.324 5.522 4.322 4.326 8.520 6.624 16.920 13.624 19.316 11.119 15.325 21.712 8.822 20.716 15.926 26.512 13.015 18.825 28.430 35.321 26.018 23.121 27.318 27.016 27.612 23.729 41.515 28.215 30.127 47.113 34.114 38.4


In most countries we have used a source for the actual number of deaths that were by suicide that defines suicide as death by intentional self-harm (ICD-10 codes X60-X84). In the UK, we have used a source that defines suicide as death by intentional self-harm and also death caused by undetermined intent (ICD-10 codes Y10-Y34). This is because this is the definition of suicide used widely in the UK.

There is also a real split in accuracy about the proportion of deaths by suicide among young men. Again, some countries hugely overestimate (South Africa and Brazil), some are pretty close, and some hugely underestimate the significance of the issue in their country (Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan).


OWNERSHIPSMARTPHONE


+65%+63%

+52%+48%+47%

+45%+44%

+39%+38%+37%+36%+35%

+33%+27%

+25%+25%+24%

+22%+21%+20%+20%+18%+18%+17%+17%+17%+16%+15%+15%

+13%+12%+11%

+9%+3%+2%

-2%

Out of every 100 people in [COUNTRY], about how many do you think own a smartphone?

Nearly every country overestimates smartphone ownership in their country, with some incredibly high estimates, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines.

IndonesiaPhilippinesIndiaColombiaBrazilPeruSouth AfricaMexicoChinaArgentinaHungaryTurkeyChileMalaysiaItalySaudi ArabiaIsraelRussiaSpain JapanHong KongNetherlandsPolandGermanyFranceAustraliaSerbiaSouth KoreaBelgiumGreat BritainUSACanadaSwedenNorwaySingaporeDenmark

Avg. guess(84)

Actual(58)

Countrymentioned too high% point differencetoo low

85 2186 2374 2284 3585 3881 3680 3679 4189 5286 4882 4685 5089 5691 6491 6690 6590 6677 5588 6770 5092 7287 6981 6386 6982 6584 6867 5186 7282 6781 6981 6981 7081 7286 8392 9087 8985 21The ‘actual’ data for this question is based on a model by Newzoo. Ipsos opted to use a model based-approach as estimates of smartphone ownership vary significantly

across sources, and online surveys can provide high estimates due to the association between internet access and smartphone ownership. Please see http://perils.ipsos.com/ for full details of all sources.


FACEBOOK


+56%+53%+53%

+49%+45%

+41%+41%+39%

+37%+37%+36%

+33%+33%+32%

+30%+29%+29%

+27%+25%+25%+24%+23%+21%+21%+20%+20%+20%+19%+19%+18%+17%+17%+17%+17%+16%+16%+16%

Out of every 100 people aged 13 and over in [COUNTRY], about how many do you think have a Facebook account?

Every country significantly overestimates the proportion of their population with Facebook accounts, with some incredibly high estimates in some countries, particularly in India, Indonesia and South Africa.

IndiaIndonesiaSouth AfricaPhilippinesRussiaPolandPeruColombiaGermanySaudi ArabiaBrazilItalyMexicoSouth KoreaHungaryMalaysiaTurkeyIsraelSpain ChileArgentinaMontenegroNetherlandsFranceCanadaJapanSerbiaBelgiumDenmarkAustraliaNew ZealandUSASwedenHong KongGreat BritainSingaporeNorway

Avg. guess(75)

Actual(46)Country too high% point differencetoo low

64 881 2873 2087 3851 673 3284 4483 4372 3467 3083 4776 4379 4660 2778 4884 5580 5280 5475 5085 6084 6074 5275 5468 4777 5638 1772 5271 5280 6177 5976 5975 5872 5582 6574 5883 6776 60



VEHICLES


+53%+51%+50%

+46%+46%

+43%+39%+39%

+37%+36%+35%

+30%+28%+27%+27%+27%+26%+25%

+21%+16%+15%+15%

+13%+12%+12%+10%

+8%+7%+7%

+2%+2%

0-1%

-4%-5%-6%

-13%-13%

For every 100 people in [COUNTRY], how many registered vehicles do you think there are?

Most countries significantly overestimate the number of registered vehicles in their country, although people in the US and Japan underestimate this.

PhilippinesSaudi ArabiaIndiaChilePeruSouth AfricaIsraelColombiaMontenegroIndonesiaSingaporeSerbiaMexicoBrazilHungaryHong KongChinaTurkeyRussiaNetherlandsGreat BritainDenmarkBelgiumFranceArgentinaSouth KoreaGermanyCanadaSpain New ZealandSwedenAustraliaMalaysiaNorwayPolandItalyUSAJapan

Avg. guess(66)



61 875 2462 1371 2460 1462 1975 3560 2169 3277 4153 1860 3062 3468 4064 3733 744 1849 2456 3573 5771 5667 5275 6377 6566 5456 4673 6571 6476 6976 7462 6075 7580 8070 7361 6579 8573 8558 72


& GODHEAVEN, HELL


+23%+19%

+18%+18%

+16%+16%+15%+15%

+14%+14%

+13%+8%

+8%+7%+7%

+5%+5%+5%

+3%00

-4%-5%

-6%-6%

-12%-12%

-13%-14%

-15%-17%

When asked in a survey in [COUNTRY], out of every 100 people, about how many do you think say they believe in heaven?

There are a wide range of different errors in guessesabout how many people believe in heaven, with some significantly overestimating belief (Japan), and some underestimating (South Africa).

JapanBelgiumSpain ArgentinaFranceCanadaChinaDenmarkSouth KoreaSwedenGreat BritainSerbiaIsraelAustraliaNorwayHong KongMexicoRussiaGermanyItalyUSATurkeyHungaryBrazilPolandPhilippinesIndiaColombiaIndonesiaPeruSouth Africa

Avg. guess(53)


42 1935 1649 3157 7540 2456 4029 1435 2044 3032 1845 3250 4258 5049 4237 3045 4061 5648 4331 2848 4865 6584 8842 4770 7656 6282 9456 6867 8085 9961 7667 84



+25%+24%

+20%+20%

+18%+18%+17%

+16%+15%

+13%+11%

+9%+8%

+8%+8%

+7%+7%+6%

+5%+5%+5%

0-1%

-2%-5%-5%-5%

-7%-9%

-11%-17%

When asked in a survey in [COUNTRY], out of every 100 people, about how many do you think say they believe in hell?

JapanSpain CanadaChinaBelgiumDenmarkGreat BritainFranceSwedenSouth KoreaAustraliaIsraelNorwayGermanyHong KongUSAColombiaSerbiaMexicoArgentinaRussiaHungarySouth AfricaItalyBrazilPolandTurkeyIndiaPeruPhilippinesIndonesiaJapan

Avg. guess(47)


37 1243 1948 2832 1227 924 638 2135 1924 942 2942 3152 4324 1620 1246 3860 5362 5545 3955 5052 5746 4140 4059 6042 4463 6851 5683 8852 5956 6574 8582 99


There are also a wide range of different errors in guessesabout how many people believe in hell, with some significantly overestimating belief (Japan and Spain), and some underestimating (Indonesia).


+15%+14%

+12%+8%

+7%+7%+7%

+6%+4%+4%+4%+3%

-5%-5%

-8%-8%-8%-9%

-10%-11%-11%

-12%-13%

-17%-17%

-18%-19%

-20%-21%-21%-22%

-31%

When asked in a survey in [COUNTRY], out of every 100 people, about how many do you think say they believe in God?

Avg. guess(59)


37 2243 2941 2946 3843 3657 5043 3622 1643 3959 5547 4349 4660 6570 7566 7451 5941 4968 7769 7988 9984 9588 10073 8675 9280 9780 9866 8556 7670 9170 9123 4566 97


SwedenJapanBelgiumSouth KoreaNorwaySpain DenmarkChinaGreat BritainCanadaFranceAustraliaRussiaIsraelUSAHungaryHong KongChileSerbiaPhilippinesTurkeyIndonesiaMexicoPeruColombiaBrazilPolandItalySouth AfricaArgentinaGermanyIndia

There are also a wide range of different errors in guessesabout how many people believe in God, with some significantly overestimating belief (Sweden and Japan), and some significantly underestimating (India).


MISPERCEPTIONSINDEX

THE


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

MISPERCEPTIONS INDEX – WHO’S MOST WRONG?

Sout

h Af

rica

Braz

il

Phili

ppin

es

Peru

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Colo

mbi

a

Mex

ico

Turk

ey

Saud

i Ara

bia

Arge

ntin

a

Italy

Chile

Japa

n

Mal

aysi

a

Fran

ce

Sout

h Ko

rea

Hun

gary

New

Zea

land

Net

herla

nds

Hon

g Ko

ng

Pola

nd

USA

Russ

ia

Ger

man

y

Aust

ralia

Chin

a

Sing

apor

e

Isra

el

Gre

at B

ritai

n

Belg

ium

Cana

da

Serb

ia

Mon

tene

gro

Spai

n

Den

mar

k

Nor

way

Swed

en

LEA

ST A

CCU

RATE

MO

ST A

CCU

RATE


38%35%

33%33%

31%31%

30%29%

28%28%

25%25%

24%22%22%21%21%21%21%

15%14%

14%14%13%

12%11%11%

10%10%

9%9%9%

8%7%

7%5%

4%2%

IndiaSerbiaPhilippinesPeruTurkeyMontenegroDenmarkIndonesiaMexicoRussiaArgentinaColombiaSouth AfricaSaudi ArabiaUSAMalaysiaChinaBrazilChileAustraliaFranceCanadaPolandIsraelItalySpainNew ZealandHungarySouth KoreaHong KongNetherlandsBelgiumSingaporeGreat BritainSwedenGermanyJapanNorway

Despite being among the least accurate, respondents in India, the Philippines and Peru are among the most confident in their answers.

In contrast Norway, Germany and Sweden come out among the most accurate in the Index, but are among the least confident in their answers.


Country confident in all of themIndex rank (highest rank = most wrong)

53534

11363268

2412719

2510232

1428173422301331191618202133292638271537

Thinking about all the answers you have given, how confident would you say you are…?


• These are the findings of the Ipsos MORI Perils of Perception Survey 2017. 29,133 interviews were conducted between 28th September – 19th October 2017.

• The survey is conducted in 38 countries around the world, via the Ipsos Online Panel system in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Great Britain, and the USA. The following countries used either online or face-to-face methodologies: Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway and Serbia.

• Approximately 1000 individuals aged 16-64 or 18-64 were surveyed in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Montenegro, Norway, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Great Britain, and the USA. Approximately 2000 individuals aged 16-64 were surveyed in Germany. Approximately 900 individuals aged 16-64 were surveyed in Netherlands. Approximately 500 individuals aged 16-64 were surveyed in Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Hungary, India, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Turkey.

• The “actual” data for each question is taken from a variety of verified sources. A full list of sources/links to the actual data can be found here.

• Where results do not sum to 100 or the ‘difference’ appearsto be+-1 more/less than the actual, this may be due to rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or not stated responses.

• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.


For more information, please contact:Bobby [email protected]@BobbyIpsosMORI

James [email protected]@grabowskijs

2017

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