perles vanadium [compatibility mode]
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VanadiumSupply
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
SourcesofVanadium201015%Magnetite Secondary
85%Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
SourcesofVanadium15%Magnetite coproductVSlag Magnetite primary VOres Secondary
27%
58%
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
VanadiumRawMaterialsbyCountryTotalFinalProductProduction68,090MTVin2010 China SouthAfrica Russia Venezuela Mexico India NewZealand MiddleEast USA Canada
50% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 6% 11%
25%
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
VanadiumFinalProductProductionbyCountryTotal68,090MTVin2010
52%
0% 1% 2% 8% 9% 11%Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
17%
China SouthAfrica Russia USA Europe Japan India Taiwan
VanadiumDemand
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
VanadiumDemandbyApplicationin2010 Total69,100MTV4% 3%
Steel Titanium Chemicals
93%
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
VanadiumConsumptionin2010Total69,100MTV5% 13% 2% 5% 11% 3%W.Europe E.Europe FSU N.America S.America China India OtherAsia
14%
44%
3%
Other
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
FinalProductNetImportsbyRegionin201010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
MTV
0
W.Europe
S.America
E.Europe
India
OtherAsia
China
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
SouthAfrica
N.America
FSU
GlobalVanadiumProductionandConsumption90 80 70 60 000MTV 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 ProductionGlobal ConsumptionExChina 2009 2010 2011
ConsumptionGlobal ProductionExChina
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
ChinaVanadiumProductionandConsumption40 35 30 000MTV 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 Production 2009 Consumption 2010 2011
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
FutureVanadiumSupply
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
ChinaVanadiumSupplyfromCoproductSlag60,000
50,000
40,000 MTV
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Pangang
Chengde
Kunming
Desheng
ChuanWei
Jianlong
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
WindimurraVanadium
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
WindimurraVanadium
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
WindimurraVanadium
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
WindimurraVanadium
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
WindimurraVanadium
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
WindimurraVanadium
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
WindimurraVanadium
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
VanadiumOxideSupplyfromCopoductSlagandPrimaryOre120,000
100,000
CAGR11.8%80,000
MTV
60,000
40,000
20,000
2010 2011Slag
2012PrimaryOre
2013
2014
2015
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
Vanadium Production vs. Consumption290.0Millions of Lbs. of V 2O5 per Year
270.0 250.0 230.0 210.0 190.0 170.0 150.0 130.0 1998
Global 12-Month Moving Average Annual Rates Through April 2011
Vanadium Consumption
Vanadium ProductionSource: Strategic Minerals Corporation
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2011
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
FutureVanadiumDemand
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
CrudeSteelProduction1980 20111,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 CompoundAnnualGrowthRates: 19802010 2.2% 19902020 3.0% 20002010 5.0% 19992007 7.0%
000MTper Year
2011productionestimatedat1,514,218MTbased onJanuary April2011actualresultsannualized
Source:WorldSteelAssociation2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
SpecificVanadiumConsumptionRatesvs.FeVPriceSpecificVConsumptionRateKgV/MTSteel 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 2007 N.America OtherAsia FSU 2008 E.Europe China India 2009 Other W.Europe LMBFeVPrice 2010 WorldAverage S.America $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $65.00 LMBFeVAveragePriceUS$/KgV $60.00 $55.00 $50.00 $45.00
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
ChangeinSpecificVConsumption Rate20072010AverageLMBFeVPriceUS$38.36/KgV100%
Global average 10% CAGR 2007-201080% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40%Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
7. AppendixNew uses Vanadium Redox Batteries
New technology applications to drive expansion in the vanadium pentoxide market
VRB systems use significant amounts of vanadium
Vanadium redox batteries are used for industrial applications The extremely large capacities possible from vanadium redox batteries make them well suited to use in large power storage applications such as helping to average out the production of highly variable generation sources such as wind or solar power, or to help generators cope with large surges in demand The limited self-discharge characteristics of vanadium redox batteries make them useful in applications where the batteries must be stored for long periods of time with little maintenance while maintaining a ready state. This has led to their adoption in some military electronics Extremely rapid response times also make them well suited to UPS type applications, where they can be used to replace lead-acid batteries and even diesel generators VRBs require significant amounts of high purity V2O5. For example, Cellstrom's CellCube FB10/100 is a 10 kilowatt/100 kilowatt hour VRB designed for uninterrupted power supply for households and factories and require approximately 1 tonne of V2O5 each. Cellstroms planned Cellcube 200/400, a 200 kilowatt/400 kilowatt hour VRB designed for solar and wind f arms, requires 5 tonnes of V2O5 per battery. Larger scale batteries for load levelling use in windfarms would require >100 tonnes of V each
Cellstroms cellcube FB 10-100 (4.5m x 2.4m x 2.2m), 10KW battery u sing 1 tonne V2O5
Prudent Energy manufactures VRB systems up to 10M W capacity
A 1 MW vanadium redox battery installed at Sumitomo Electric Industries in Japan
2
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
7. AppendixNew uses Vanadium Lithium Batteries
New technology applications to drive expansion in the vanadium pentoxide market
Lithium vanadi um phosphate batteries (Li thi um batteries incorporati ng a l ithi um vanadium phosphate (Li3 V2 (PO4 )3) cathode material ) produce higher voltages and improved energy for wei ght characteristics than tradi ti onal cathode lithium batteries. Thi s makes them particularly suited to appli cations such as electric cars and other applications where weight is an important factor
Auto makers are increasingly utilising vanadium in their electri c cars as the strong benefits of v anadium batteries are recogni sed The Subaru G4e, an el ectric concept car devel oped by Subaru is powered by lithium vanadium phosphate cel ls. BYD of Shenzhen, Chi na (which counts Warren Buffet amongst its l argest i nvestors), i s now in the process of constructing a pl ant in the vanadium producing regi on of China, with the i ntent of producing l ithium ferrous vanadium phosphate batteries (a combination of vanadium and iron phosphates) to supply the automotive market as quickly as possi ble. Further, GS Yuasa, a leading Japanese battery maker that has JVs with automakers such as Honda and Mitsubishi , has recentl y prototyped a new vanadium lithium cathode battery for use in electric cars DBE Energy, i n partnership with German utility Lekker Energi e, equipped an Audi A2 electric vehicl e with i ts new lithium-vanadium metal polymer battery and set a long distance record of 603 ki lometres (375 miles) travell ed on a single charge. DBE Energy clai ms the battery has a 97% effi ciency and can be fully charged within 6 minutes
Subaru G4e (above), which uses Lithium Vanadium Phosphate Cells (below)
GS Yuasa Lithium Vanadium Phosphate prototype battery
The record breaking vanadium lithium powered Audi A2 from DBE Energy and Lekker Energie
Vanadium lithium batteries provide electric cars with greater range, with one prototype recently travelling 603km on a single charge1
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
LondonMetalBulletinFeVMonthlyPrice19802010inflatedtoJune2010$180.00 $160.00 $140.00 $120.00US$/KgV
$100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $ Jan80 May81 Sep82 Jan84 May85 Sep86 Jan88 May89 Sep90 Jan92 May93 Sep94 Jan96 May97 Sep98 Jan00 May01 Sep02 Jan04 May05 Sep06 Jan08 May09 Sept.10Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
EconomicsofHSLAsteelvs.CMnsteel
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
VanadiumSteelMarketShare30.0% 25.0% %oftotalsteelproduced
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
FutureVanadiumPrices
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
2010VanadiumOxideCashCostCurve$8.00 $7.00 V2O5CashCostUS$/poundV2O5 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 1,000 4,000 7,000 10,000 13,000 16,000 19,000 22,000 25,000 28,000 31,000 34,000 37,000 40,000 43,000 46,000 49,000 52,000 55,000 58,000 61,000 64,000 67,000 70,000
Secondary
Primary
CoproductSlag
ProductionCapacityMTVMetal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
FeVPricevs.DemandGrowth$60.00 $50.00
FeVPriceUS$/KgV
$40.00
15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9%
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
SpecificVanadiumConsumptionRatesvs.FeVPriceSpecificVConsumptionRateKgV/MTSteel 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 2007 N.America OtherAsia FSU 2008 E.Europe China India 2009 Other W.Europe LMBFeVPrice 2010 WorldAverage S.America $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $65.00 LMBFeVAveragePriceUS$/KgV $60.00 $55.00 $50.00 $45.00
Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
ChinaRebar 2010production130millionMT 90millionMTGrade2(noV) 40millionMTGrade3(0.03%V)
July1,2011GovernmentDirectivetouse Grade3inallnewbuildingdesigns 90millionMTgrade2rebarproducedto grade3standardwouldconsumeadditional 27,000MTVperyear,equaltoabout40%of 2010globalvanadiumconsumption.Metal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
Summary Vanadiumconsumptiongrowthdrivenbygrowthin globalsteelproductionandincreasedspecific vanadiumconsumptionrates. Specificvanadiumconsumptionrategrewby10% CAGR20072010evenwithrelativelyhigh vanadiumprices.Potentialforsignificant accelerationinspecificvanadiumconsumption ratesinnearfuture Chinarebar Significantpotentialnewmarketsinenergystorage couldbeimportantinthenearfutureMetal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011
Summary Supplyofvanadiumfromlowcostcoproductslag andprimaryminedorewillgrowatmaximumrate of11.8%CAGR20102015 Verylittlechancetoseenewprimaryvanadium minesupplyotherthanWindimurrabefore2015. Basedonproductioncostspricesbelow US$30.00/KgVarenotsustainable. FerrovanadiumpricesaboveUS$60/KgV unsustainableduetosubstitution Longterm rationalpricebetweenUS$30/KgVand US$60/KgV Shortterm fundamentalsdontmatterMetal Bulletin Ferroalloys Conference Berlin Nov. 14, 2011