perspectives on growth in salmon...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dag Sletmo, DNB Foods & Seafood
Aqua Nor, 19. August 2015
Perspectives on growth in salmon farming
[email protected], tel +47 95286134
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Growth has been
fantastic…
…but it’s slowing
Global harvest, Atlantic salmon
3-year average growth rate, global harvest Atlantics
Source: Kontali
Source: Kontali, DNB
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Why is growth important?
Feed the world Grow or stagnate It’s in our DNA! Make more money!
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Growth is not always profitable A common misconception among investors and companies
Source: World Bank
..but have been catastrophic for the owners Airlines have grown tremendously..
Source: Bloomberg
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Salmon farming is still a young industry Development in investor perceptions over time
Chaotic growth
(pre 2008)
Cyclical growth
(2008-2014)
New Dawn
(2014-)
Low & stable growth:
Better margins + lower volatility =
higher company valuations
Source: Fiskeridirektoratet, SSB, DNB
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high low
hig
h hydro power,
downtown hotelsairlines, shipping
low salmon farming
now
salmon farming
beforeEX
IT B
AR
RIE
RS
ENTRY BARRIERS
Increasing barriers to entry Value grabbing vs value creation
Higher cost for marginal production A more attractive market structure
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Is a blessing in disguise turning into a curse..? Sea lice issues helped curb growth
Sea lice – initially a blessing in disguise for investors..?
Restricts growth
Boosts prices
Boosts cost
Industry reputation at risk with
regulators and consumers
Positive price impact may erode since long- term
and short-term price elasticities are very different
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Why has growth slowed? Sustainability is the key issue
• Full capacity utilization in
• Norway, Chile, UK, Canada
• Governments reluctant to issue new licenses
due to sustainability issues
• Not opening up «new» provinces
• Increasing density within each province
• Less debottlenecking potential
• Base effect
Average annual growth 85 thousand tons
Reaching full capacity utilization
Source: Marine Harvest, Kontali
Source: Kontali, DNB
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Sustainability challenges
•Sea lice threat to wild salmon
•Escapee threat to wild salmon
Sanitary challenges
•SRS and sea lice
•High production cost
Political and capacity challenges
•Lack of good unused sites
•Difficult regulatory and political processes
Political challenges
•Perceived as environmental threat
•But fresh Gov’t report recommends new legislation and
growth
Supply restrictions Governments in all main regions are restrictive
«License to grow»:
The industry must find
ways to operate
sustainably, and
convince authorities
and consumers it can
do so, in order to be
permitted to grow
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Demand has not slowed down A lost opportunity
• Growth in demand has increased
• Emerging markets a larger share of mix
• New packaging has opened new distribution
channels
• Extremely few industries have more attractive
long- term demand fundamentals than salmon
farming
• The main potential «restriction» on
demand will be a lack of supply; markets
are not developed in a vacuum
Demand growth yoy, Atlantic salmon
Source: NMBU
Global middle class, billion people
Source: OECD
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How to fix the problem: pushing the envelope Biological capacity isn’t an absolute; it’s a function of regulation and technology
Sustainability
It has been done
before:
Faroe Islands’ new
veterinary system
following its ISA
crisis helped create
new harvest peaks
in combination
with superior
biological
performance.
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New technology can lift biological capacity Combining cutting-edge research and industrial know-how Existing and potential technologies:
• Offshore
• Closed cage
• Submerged cage
• Large smolt
• New vaccines
• Genetics
• Sterile fish
• Oceanographic studies and optimal site locations
• Lice treatment
• Omega 3; optimize use and new sources
• Etc..
New technologies
Production cost (including capital cost)
Source: Nofima, DNB
Source: Nofima, DNB
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New regulations (& industry cooperation) Doing the right things, it’s not just about technology
• Focus on sustainability and effectiveness
• Regulate what they should and nothing else
• Linking capacity growth to sustainability
• Large zones
• Individual company basis
• Encouraging technology development
through market mechanisms
• “One company one fjord” & fire gates
• Industry coordination (GSI, ASC)
• Etc..
Source: DNB
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Sustainability Do the right things and let the world know about it
• Planet
• Farmed salmon performs well in terms of key
parameters such as water consumption and
carbon footprint
• Biodiversity
• Threat to wild salmon in Norway (escapes, sea
lice)
• Sea bottom, herring, cod, sea mammals
• Economics
• Disease in Chile impacts cost very negatively
• Antibiotics use in Chile a market risk
• Access to marine ingredients for feed
Key sustainability parameters in protein production
Source: Marine Harvest, Aftenposten
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Why does salmon farming get so much attention? It’s a very young and very successful industry
Aquaculture production has in <100 years reached the level
beef spent 8 000 years achieving
8 000 years
Agricultural history time line
Source: Wikipedia, DNB
Source: iLaks
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There are real sustainability issues in salmon farming
Production cost NOK/kg
Source: SINTEF, Kontali Source: FHI
Multi resistant sea lice Public opinion
Source: Aftenposten Innsikt
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Optimal growth: not too fast, not to slow…
Growing too quickly
puts downward
pressure on prices due
to weaker market
balance
Growing too quickly
puts pressure on
biology and
increases cost
$
Growing too slowly
is a missed
opportunity for
value creation & for
feeding the world
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Salmon is good for both you and for the planet
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DNB’s perspective..
• We believe in growth
• But it has to be sustainable!
• We support consolidation
• We are proud to be the only
financial partner in the NCE
Seafood Innovation Cluster
Source: Seafood Innovation Cluster
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…and we are optimistic!
• Collaboration between companies
• Publicly funded research available to all
• Sharing best practice
• Egalitarian work ethos
• Workers apply their skills and are
autonomous
• Workers solve problems without instructions
and help make many small innovations all
the time
-Findings by social anthropologist Marianne E. Lien
Factors behind Norwegian salmon farmers’ success Norway’s cultural traits vs global average
Source: Hofstede Center
• We focus on helping the group rather than ourselves
• We are not hierarchical and we communicate directly
• We dare to state our opinion and defend it
…and we have a high level of trust
Salmon farming is built on innovation
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A road map for growth
Farmed Atlantic salmon harvest
A few years
with very
limited or no
growth due
to
restrictions
in Norway
and Chile?
Industry and governments
lift biological capacity
through technological and
regulatory innovation, but
still supply growth below
growth in demand?
Source: Kontali, DNB
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Thank you for your attention