perun - software demonstration - martin dubrovsky ([email protected]) mirek trnka...
TRANSCRIPT
Introduction to this afternoon
(several experiments will be made)
main window of PERUN
Window 2: Directories and lists
Window 3: Parameters of Met&Roll
Window 4: importing weather data
Seasonal analysis (AG-01)
Meteo input:
- observed data
- 1 year
- no forecast
- no scenario
Seasonal analysis (AG-01) - graph 1
Multi-year analysis (AG-02)
Meteo input:
- observed data
- 40 year
- no forecast
- no scenario
Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 1
Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 2
Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 3
Sensitivity analysis (AG-03): precipitation
Meteo input:
- observed data
- 40 year
- no forecast
- no scenario
Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 3
Sensitivity analysis (AG-03): soil
Meteo input:
- observed data
- 40 year
- no forecast
- no scenario
Seasonal analysis (AG-03) - graph 3
Probabilistic seasonal forecast of crop yields (AG-04)sensitivity to the lead-time
Meteo input:
- observed till day0-1
- synthetic since day0
- 10 re-runs
- no forecast
- no scenario
Crop yield forecasting (AG-04) - graph 3
Weather forecast - type 1
* weather forecast
METHOD = 1
...averages... ..std. deviation..
@JD-from JD-to TMAX TMIN PREC TMAX TMIN PREC
99121 99130 17 6 30 2 2 10
99131 99140 14 4 60 3 3 20
99141 99150 21 10 10 4 4 10
@
Weather forecast - type 2
* weather forecast
METHOD = 3
...averages... ..std. deviation..
@JD-from JD-to TMAX TMIN PREC TMAX TMIN PREC
99121 99130 1 1 1.2 1 1 1
99131 99140 0 0 1.0 1 1 1
99141 99150 -1 -1 0.9 1 1 1
@
Climate change impacts on crop yields (AG-05.exp)
Meteo input:
- synthetic
- scenario
- 99 years
- no forecast
Makkink!!!
Climate change scenario
@original file =WIE-A2H.sc
MONTH DTR PRE RAD TMN TMP TMX VAP WND
--- + * * + + + * *
0 0.341 -2.568 2.626 1.284 1.454 1.625 6.600 0.766
1 -0.054 8.354 -3.884 1.233 1.206 1.178 9.298 -0.335
2 0.101 3.694 -3.544 1.315 1.365 1.416 10.467 0.542
3 0.239 3.377 -0.458 0.902 1.022 1.141 6.012 0.582
4 0.100 6.025 1.216 1.080 1.130 1.180 6.175 0.620
5 0.128 2.539 2.726 1.230 1.294 1.358 6.932 0.152
6 0.308 -7.229 3.895 1.224 1.378 1.532 5.971 1.372
7 0.699 -13.576 3.812 1.524 1.874 2.223 6.308 2.994
8 1.164 -15.628 6.828 1.666 2.248 2.831 4.757 2.650
9 0.958 -9.463 7.242 1.516 1.995 2.474 4.673 0.439
10 0.174 1.774 1.424 1.292 1.379 1.466 8.211 -0.138
11 0.265 -2.996 -0.404 0.951 1.084 1.216 7.023 -0.835
12 0.010 7.344 -3.748 1.472 1.477 1.482 10.945 1.612
Climate change impacts - graph 3
(3 climates) x (2 ambient CO2)
Now350
Now535
HadCM3 350
NCAR 350
HadCM3 535
NCAR 535
Multi-site analysis - 1
# multi-station analysis
@idx soil rdmsol wav wght
CZ01 CZ01.awc 132 15.6 56
CZ05 CZ05.awc 133 14.2 67
CZ06 CZ06.awc 127 13.4 70
CZ09 CZ09.awc 87 7.5 44
CZ13 CZ13.awc 111 9.5 181
CZ19 CZ19.awc 129 13.1 45
***
Multi-site analysis - 2
# multi-station analysis
@idx soil crop wea lat lon RDMsol WAV idsol weight
c001 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB BTUR 49.16 16.70 132 15.6 0 714
c002 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CASL 49.85 15.67 132 15.6 0 252
c003 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CERV 49.78 17.54 132 15.6 0 0
c004 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CHEB 50.07 12.39 132 15.6 0 0
c005 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CHUR 49.07 13.61 132 15.6 0 0
c006 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB DOKS 50.46 14.17 132 15.6 0 760
c007 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB DOMA 49.53 16.25 132 15.6 0 31
c008 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HAVL 49.61 15.58 132 15.6 0 0
c009 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HNEV 50.30 15.72 132 15.6 0 126
c010 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HOLE 49.32 17.57 132 15.6 0 137
c011 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HRAD 50.18 15.84 132 15.6 0 0
c012 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HUMP 49.55 15.55 132 15.6 0 0
c013 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HUSI 49.04 13.99 132 15.6 0 0
PERUN - notes on installation
?. Delete C:\MADSOFT\PERUN directory
1. Open CD:\PERUN
2. Run “installPerun.bat”
3. find and run “c:\madsoft\perun\perun.exe”
4. Open experiment: AG-01.exp and START