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  • CLIMATE CHANGE reason for hopePeter Barrett peter.barrett@vuw.ac.nz

    Nelson 14 November 2017

    mailto:peter.barrett@vuw.ac.nz

  • 2

  • CLIMATE CHANGE reason for hope

    Growing up 1940-62 Science years 1962-2006 Film making years 2006-13 Observations over last decade Reason for hope

    Science clear on need for action now Technology making renewable energy a better economic option Society globally, nationally, locally is responding NZs opportu ity

    Time to find out what you are doing here in Nelson

    3

  • Waikato dairy farm 1940-56

  • Koromatua farm 1940-56

    Transantarctic Mountains 1962-2003

    King Country caving 1955-61

    Offshore coring 1972-99King Country 1956-62 Canaan 1960-62

  • Transantarctic Mountains 1963-90

  • Mt Fridtjof Nansen +

    + C Surprise

    Mt Wade +

    + Mt Betty

    NZARP Nov-Dec 63

    Axel Heiberg Gl

    + Mt McKellarMt Sirius +

    + Graphite Pk

    USARP Nov 66-Jan 67

    safe landing site

    + Mt

    Kirkpatrick

    Features from 1966-68 Beacon-Ferrar stratigraphy and maps Extent/nature of Pagoda Tillite Tillite on Mt Sirius Vertebrate find on Graphite Pk

    Nov 67-Jan 68

    NZARP Southern Party December 1963

  • Glomar Challenger in 1973 drilling into Ross Sea floor at 78Sfinding that Antarctic glaciation began over 25 million years ago

  • Nature, 1978271, 321-324

    Rafter 1957 ODT

    Bull 1962 OSU

  • Offshore coring 1972-99

    C

    R

    P

    Cape Roberts Project 1997-99 Earths temperature through time

    ANDRILL

    Alex Pyne

  • Peter Barrett, Antarctic Research Centre

    Victoria University of Wellington

    The second great climate shift in the

    last 65 million years?

    CLIMATE CHANGE AND GOVERNANCE

    Te Papa, Wellington, New Zealand

    March 24-26 2006

  • 12

  • THIN ICE the Inside Story of Climate Science

    Thursday 26 May, 2016, VUW School of Languages and Literature and the NZ Centre for Literary Translation

    A David Sington/Simon Lamb filmA University of Oxford-Victoria University of Wellington-DOX London Production

    Science Documentary Project

    with special thanks to the 40 scientists who took part in the project,

    and the Thin Ice Advisory Board

    Concept: Peter Barrett & Simon Lamb, Wellington and Oxford

    Production:

    Simon Lamb, Director/Producer/Photographer David Sington, Producer/Director, London

    Catherine Fitzgerald, Co-Producer, Wellington

    Peter Barrett, Executive Producer, Wellington Philip England, Executive Producer, Oxford

    David Fairhead, Editor, London Philip Sheppard Music, London

    Website and distribution:

    James Franklin, Assemble.com Suzanne Harle, Green Planet Films, CA

    Suze Keith, Marketing, Wellington Gary Ward, VicLink, Wellington

    2006-13

  • Map of world with filming locations

    (use later to show Earth Day screening locations

    www.primap.com

    Filming locations

    ~40 scientists

    Mostly 2007-2009

    120 hours of interviews

    Run time 73 mins

    ~40 short video clips

    GLOBAL SCREENING EARTH DAY April 22, 2013 - 200 sites on all 7 continents ~100,000 internet views from 100 countries

    - subtitles now in Chinese, English, French, German, Italian, Malaylam, Maori, Polish, Portuguese, Spanish, Russian

    2015 - 56 min version made for American Public TVover 400 broadcast events across the US

  • PARIS December 2015

    15

  • SITUATION: CO2 still increasing by 2 ppm/year (cycle varies 8 ppm/year) though emissions flattened out in 2014 next slide.

    Slide: Tim Naish, ATCM talk, Beijing, May 2017

    Annual average CO2 levels rose

    from 394 ppm in mid 2013

    to 404 ppm in mid 2017.

  • Fossil CO2 persists for a long time~40% projected to remain after 6000 years

    cf lifetime for methane ~12 years

    2000 2100 2200 3000 4000 5000 6000 CE

    1000 GtC - safe li it Allen, Nature, 2009

    Montenegro et al. 2007 Geophysical Research Letters

  • CO2 emissions may have peaked but need to be zero by 2050.TRENDS COMPARING COUNTRIES OTHER GHGs

    www.carbonbrief.org/what-global-co2-emissions-2016-mean-climate-change

    To include CO2

    equivalent from CH4

    and NO2,

    add ~20% for world.

    add 100% for NZ

    (blue dots to left)

    CO276%, CH416% rest8%

    Coal peaks but oil, gas rising US 4x, EU-China-NZ 2x global average

    Total

    Chart Title

    Per capita CO2 emissions (tC yr-1)

  • BUSINESS AS USUAL

    EXTREME EMISSIONS REDUCTION

    DeConto & Pollard 2016 Nature

    But new computer projections show we can avert catastrophic

    Antarctic ice sheet melt with extreme emissions reduction

    GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE

    RCP 8.5

    RCP 2.6

    2050

    0.41

    0.24

    2100

    1.70m

    0.50m

    15

    10

    SLR(m)

    5

    0

  • Global Action Dec 2015 Paris Agreement - signed Apr/in force Nov 2016

    Anti-Trump response to withdrawal in June, 2017- California and New York committed to pick up the slack

    - Mayors of >7400 cities globally o ed Tru ps decision on Paris Accord will spur greater local efforts to combat climate change.

    - 19 out of the G-20 nations reaffirmed their commitment to Paris Accord

    India plans nearly 60% of electricity capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2027. No new fossil fuel plants needed - Guardian, 22/12/2016.

    Global investment in renewables twice fossil fuels - Bloomberg 6/4/2016 Global renewable energy capacity boosted by a record amount in

    2016 - delivered at a markedly lower cost Guardian 6/6/2017

    Kentucky Coal Mining Museum now uses solar energy - John Oliver 18/6/2017

  • OECD review of our environmental performance over last de ade argui g stro gly for the tra sitio to ards a lo -carbon, greener economy

    GLOBE-NZ (cross-party group of 35 NZ MPs) released a report Net Zero i NZ from VIVID Economics - first ever to provide

    credible pathways for New Zealand to reduce its greenhouse

    gas emissions to zero before 2100

    New Zealand Action est four eeks for li ate a tio i o er te years (20 Mar-13 Apr)

    Generation Zero launched their campaign for a Zero Carbon Act to be introduced to Parliament as binding

    legislation now supported by Young Nats. On Aug 15 Wise Response launched its Climate Consensus

    Coalition Statement and Plan at Parliament for Zero Carbon

    Emissions by 2050

  • NZ organisations for solutions

    www.generationzero.org

    a youth-led organization founded to provide solutions for NZ to cut carbon pollution.

    www.wiseresponse.org

    a broad coalition of NZers calling on our Parliament to comprehensively assess

    imminent risks to New Zealand and to draw up plans to deal with them

    www.ourclimatedeclaration.org.nz

    This is not a petition. This is a Declaration of our commitment

    to a different kind of future.

    www.enviroschools.org.nz

    Fostering a generation of people who instinctively think and act sustainably.

    23

  • NZs is etter pla ed to ope ith glo al ar i g o account of its small size and location (mid-latitude,

    surrounded by ocean)

    We have more energy alternatives and technology options than almost any other country

    Ne Zealands ad antages

    SOLUTIONS (type/scale)

    - adapt and mitigate (reduce C emissions to zero)

    - national, local, personal

    - Live simply

    - Minimise waste

    - Eat less dairy/beef

    - Walk/bike/bus/train

    - Plant trees

    - Join a community group for local initiatives

    SOLUTIONS (what you can do - discussion)

    THANK YOU!