peter bishop - futurist

UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight Professionals

The Forecasting Enterprise

Honolulu HISeptember 13, 2010 Slides – tech.uh.edu/faculty/bishop/documents

Click on NASBLA_0913.pdf

Slides – tech.uh.edu/faculty/bishop/documents Click on NASBLA_0913.pdf

Dr. Peter BishopFutures Studies

University of Houston


The Agenda

The Lesson -- Understanding Change

The Changes– Globalization

– Energy-Environment

– Technology

– Governance

The Challenge of the 21st century


Understanding Change


Sociology and Social Change

Tables of contents from the 10 highest ranked sociology textbooks on Amazon.com– Average of 15 sections in each book (15 weeks in

a semester)– Three did not have a chapter on social change– Seven did…

» 7% of the chapters» 3% of the pages

No social change textbook in print for a years


Four Basic Attributes

Levels

Sources Horizons

Rates

ChangeChange


Sources of Change

…but within limits

Predict…

INBOUNDChange that happens to us

Anticipate…Prepare

Control…

OUTBOUNDChange we create ourselves

Influence…Act


Transactional Environment

Levels of Change

STEEPSTEEPPolitical

EnvironmentalTechnologicalEconomic

Social

Demographic

Cultural



Out-Bound Change

Political

EnvironmentalTechnological

Economic

Demographic

Cultural


Horizons of Change

Hours-Days

Weeks-Months

Years-Decades

Present Future


Rates of Change

Continuous change• gradual improvement over long periods

• usually preserves the framework/context

Discontinuous change• sudden change to new levels

• usually destroys the framework/context

• always involves short-term loss


Past Disruptions

Airlines

Automobiles

Telephones

Television

Health care

Retail

Utilities

The Common ElementDestruction of MonopoliesAppearance of Competition

The Common ElementDestruction of MonopoliesAppearance of Competition

Newspapers

Military

Elections

Schools?


S-Curve

The Real Shape of Change

1

Old eraNo problem!

2

TransitionWhat is going on here?

3 New eraWhew!


Speed

Successive Eras

Biking

Motoring

Flying

Law of dim

inishing

returns

Inherent capacity

for perfo

rmance

Punctuated Equilibrium

Punctuated Equilibrium

Boating


Eras in Information Technology


x

The Gap

0

1

0

1

Old era

New eraTransitions inevitability

create problems...

…but problems are investments toward a better future.


The Gap

0

1

Old era

Transitions inevitability create problems...

xNew era

0

1

…yet no guarantees that the future will better…


The Gap

0

1

Old era

xNew era

0

1

…or even something worse occurs.

Overshoot and collapseOvershoot and collapse


Change and Stability

Nothing

changes

everything



Levels of Change

STEEPSTEEPPolitical

EnvironmentalTechnologicalEconomic

Social

Demographic

Cultural


Globalization


World Economic Growth

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

GD

P

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

GD

P p

er capita

World GDP (3.9%/yr)

GDP per capita (2.2%/yr)

Trilliion 1990$ 1990$

Source: Angus Maddison, University of Georgia, http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_09-2008.xls


World and U.S. Trade

$-

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

$-

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

World Trade (10%/yr)

US Imports (9.8%/yr)

US Exports (8.6%/yr)

Trillion$ Trillion$

Source: World Trade Organization, http://stat.wto.org/StatisticalProgram/WsdbExportSp.aspx?ContentType=.xls&Language=E


World Trade


Share of World Economy

Developed countries are now sharing

the world economy with developing countries.

Developed countries are now sharing

the world economy with developing countries.


Increasing Rate of Globalization

Jose Cordeiro, Thinking about the Unthinkable, Olomouc University, 2010


U.S. Manufacturing

Manufacturing output is up…

Manufacturing output is up…

…but employment is down…

…but employment is down…

…because productivity is up…

…because productivity is up…

…and foreign goods are cheaper.

…and foreign goods are cheaper.


THE “GREAT EXPANSION” TO THE “GREAT INVERSION”

Family Income Growth by Quintile, 1947-1979

120%

101%107%

114%

94%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Lowest fifth Second fifth Middle fifth Fourth fifth Top fifth

Percent Change in After-Tax Income, 1977-1994

-16%-8%

-1% 4% 9% 14%25%

72%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

Lowest Second Middle Fourth 81-90% 91-95% 96-99% Top 1%

Income Q uintiles

Source: Congressional Budget Office Source: Economic Policy Institute

Knowledge Economy: Growing Divides

Slides: Professor Klineberg – Rice University


Effect of Globalization

Emmanuel Saez, Income and Wealth Concentration in a Historical and

International Perspective, 2004, http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/berkeleysympo2.pdf


Distribution of World Income


Energy


Fuel Type MJ/kg

HydrogenGasolinesNatural gasAnthraciteBituminous coalLignitesAir-dried woodCereal straws

114.044.0-45.033.0-37.029.0-31.022.0-26.012.0-20.014.0-16.012.0-15.0

From Energy: A Beginner’s Guide by Vaclav Smil

ENERGY CONTENT OF FUELS

1 MJ is the energy required to move a mid-size car about 650 yds1 kg is about 1 quart of gasoline.


U.S. Discovery and Production

UH FUTURES STUDIES: Preparing Foresight ProfessionalsSource: ASPO-USA; created by OilPoster.org

One possible scenario…


Slide from Robert L Hirsch


Texas oil 1930: 100 to 1 US oil 1970: 30 to 1 Wind today: 18 to 1 US oil today: 15 to 1 Ethanol ( Brazil) 8 to 1 Coal/gas to liquids 5 to 1 (est.) Oil sands: 3 to 1 Oil shale: 3.5 to 2-1 (Shell) Ethanol from corn: 1.5 to 1 (Gov’t) Electricity from coal: 0.35 to 1 Solar?, nuclear? cellulosic ethanol? H2?

Net Energy

Source: Cutler Cleveland, Boston Univ.


Net Exports Available


“It ain’t the size of the tank;

it’s the size of the tap”Unconventional petroleum

resources are huge.

How much by 2015? 2020?

Energy quality + net energy

+ net exports

In a horse race w/ depletionSource: Steve Andrews, “The Peak Oil Debate:The Peak Oil Debate:How Close How Close AreAre We?,” University of Houston, 2007. We?,” University of Houston, 2007.


Algae, CO2, and Biofuel

Algae 2020, Emerging Markets, http://www.emerging-markets.com/biodiesel/pdf/Algae2020NextGenerationBiofuelsStudyEmergingMarketsOnline.pdf


Environment


Are There Limits?

Lučka Kajfež Bogataj, Can Civilisation Cope?, Olomouc University, 2010


Concentrations have oscillated between 180 and

300 ppmv over the last 400K yrs

CO2 Concentrations

SIPPLE STATION, ANTARCTICA


Global Temperatures

Source: Schlumberger, http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/change.htm

Global Temperatures

Source: Michael Mann, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0805721105


Projected Temperature Increase

Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Understanding Climate Changehttp://www.uah.edu/inauguration/presentations/mosley.pdf


Abrupt Climate Change

Meridional Overturning Circulation (North Atlantic

Conveyer)

Rapid West Antarctic and/or Greenland Ice Sheet

Collapse

Volcanoes

Methane Hydrate and/or Permafrost Methane Instability

Biogeochemical (carbon source/sink)

Source: IPCC, 4th Assessment Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf


Implications

Impacts

Vulnerabilities• Ecosystems• Water• Food• Settlements• Health


The Future of Any Resource

Currentsupply

available

Current benefit level

Existing sources

Sources Supplies Benefits BehaviorsSources Supplies Benefits Behaviors

Currentbehavior

Future supply?

New supply

efficiency

?

New supply issues

Future benefit?

New demand

efficiency

?

New demand issues

Future sources?

?

Futurebehavior?

?


NBIC TechnologyInfo, Nano, Bio, Cogno


Waves of Creative Destruction

Era 1

Era 1Steam

Rail

Petroleum

Information

Law of dim

inishing

returns

Inherent capacity

for perfo

rmance


Changing of the Guard

Energy Society Oil Automobiles Aircraft Petrochemicals

Information Society Information

Communication

Finances

Media, Entertainment

Retail


The Reduction of...The Elimination of...


Dematerializing the World

Information from Paper

Communication from Mail

Libraries from Books

Money fromCurrency

Selling from Stores

Entertainment from Theaters

Meetings from Travel“All things solid melt into air.”

--Karl Marx and Frederick Engels, 1848“All things solid melt into air.”

--Karl Marx and Frederick Engels, 1848


Genetic Typing



Cost of Genetic Typing

Year Cost Time

2003 $1,000,000,000 13 years

2007 $100,000,000 4 years

2008 $1,000,000 2 months

2009 $10,000 4 weeks

2015? $100 1 day

85% improvement per year!85% improvement per year!Jose Cordeiro, Thinking about the Unthinkable, Olomouc University, 2010


But Why Stop at Medicine?

Agriculture Higher yields

Pest-resistant

Herbicide resistant

Lower water needs

Nitrogen fixation

More nutricious

Industry Materials

Manufacturing

Energy

Waste management

Computing


Human Cyborgs



Global Brain?



The Next Big Bang



Government


Contract with America

Lower taxes

Smaller government

Fewer regulations

More individual responsibility


Milestones of Government Role

Progressive EraAnti-trust

Child laborWorkplace safety



The New DealFDIC

Society securityMinimum wage

The New DealFDIC


The Great SocietyAFDC

Food stampsMedicare, Medicaid



Contract with AmericaBalanced budgetWelfare reform

(Immigration restriction)



????????


Another perspective





The New DealFDIC


The New DealFDIC










????????


So What?


Jim Dator, The Unholy Trinity Plus One

1. The end of cheap and abundant oil

2. Multiple environmental challenges

3. Global economic and fiscal collapse

Plus one -- Government. Or rather, the

lack of government–the lack of any kind of

formal, communal system that can help us

solve any of these three challenges.

Journal of Futures Studies, February 2009, 13(3): 33 - 48


The Resource/Disposal Process

Population

Affluence (standard of living)

Technology (Production, Consumption, & Disposal)– Amount produced, consumed and thrown away

– Efficiency of production and consumption

– Effectiveness of disposal

Usableresource

Population

Waste

Consume Throw away

I = P A T

Dispose

Physicalresource

Produce

Discover

Impact ImpactUsable

resource

Population

Affluence

Waste

Consume Throw away

I = P A T

Dispose

Physicalresource

Produce

Discover

ImpactImpact


IPAT Rates

1990-2010 2010-30

Total Per cap Per $GWP Total

Population 30% 20% (IDB)

Gross World Product 111% 63%

Energy 48% 14% -30%38% (IEA)

Irrigated land 27% 0%

Grain yield 42% 58%

(Harris 1996)

Grain 17% -10%

Meat 84% 108%


The Drama of the Future

Usableresource

Population

Affluence

Technology

Waste

Consume Throw away

I = P A T

Dispose

Physicalresource

Produce

Discover

Impact ImpactUsable

resource

Population

Affluence

Technology

Waste

Consume Throw away

I = P A T

Dispose

Physicalresource

Produce

Discover Recycle

Impact Impact

Population, Affluence, and Technology are all increasing?

Which will prove the more powerful?

Which will dominate the future?

Population, Affluence, and Technology are all increasing?

Which will prove the more powerful?

Which will dominate the future?


Multiple Pathways

Proactive Governance

Cooperative Frameworks

Appropriate Technology

Change of Mind (values, behavior)

Thomas Shauer, Club of Rome, Olomouc University, 2010

CollectiveCollective IndividualIndividual


A Final Word

Learning faster is the only

sustainable advantage

in an environment

of rapid innovation and

change.-- Arie de Geus, former Director Corporate Planning Royal Dutch Shell Group


For Additional Information

Phone 281-433-4160

E-mail [email protected]

Web houstonfutures.org

Dr. Peter C. BishopEducator, Facilitator, Futurist

Dr. Peter C. BishopEducator, Facilitator, Futurist



peter bishop - futurist

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