peter ince u.s. forest service forest products laboratory madison, wi

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Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

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Page 1: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Peter InceU.S. Forest ServiceForest Products LaboratoryMadison, WI

Page 2: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Topics:

2010 RPA Forest Assessment

U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM)

FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM

Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs

Page 3: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

The U.S. Forest Service produces 50-year projections of forest resource trends in the RPA Assessment reports every five years:

Recent RPAAssessmentReports (2002, 2007)

Page 4: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

RPA research includes long-range modeling of trends in wood supply and demand

P

Q

S

D

Page 5: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Developing Long-Range

Forest Product Market

Projections for the 2010

RPA Assessment . . .

Approach:

Global Forest Products Model (GFPM)

U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM)

RPA Scenarios (based on IPCC SRES)

Linkages to other RPA Models . . .

Page 6: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

ForecastedWood Products and Timber Outputs

and prices

2010 RPA Models and Scenario Analysis IPCC Global

Scenarios

SocioeconomicVariables

BioenergyForecasts

ClimateForecasts

US Forest ProductsModule (USFPM)

Land Use Model

Translation / Downscaling

Translation /Downscaling

Forest area supply

CarbonAccounting

Ecosystem ServicesWildlife, Water, Recreation, Forage

LandscapeStructure

ForecastedForest Conditions

and Land Use

Timber harvest & supply

Domestic Macroeconomics

and DemographicsForecasts

Forest DynamicsModel

Global ForestProducts Model

Page 7: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

For the 2010 RPA Assessment, we developed the “U.S. Forest Products Module” (USFPM) within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM):

Page 8: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Rationale for global model & linkages:

Globalization of forest product markets

Global expansion of biomass energy

Forest impacts of global climate change

Global forest & market interactions

Page 9: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

RPA Assessment Objectives:

To Provide Long-Range Information (50-year projections) about the Status and Trends of the Nation’s Renewable Resources on Forests and Grasslands-----------------------------------------------

Special focus of 2010 RPA Assessment

IPCC Global Socioeconomic and Climate Scenarios . . . with global bioenergy outlook

Page 10: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Some basics about USFPM (U.S. Forest Products Module for 2010 RPA):

We built USFPM to run inside the GFPM (when we run USFPM we also run the global analysis)

USFPM expands what was originally a single region in the GFPM (USA among 180 other countries)

USFPM models timber supply, timber harvest, and forest product production in the three U.S. subregions (North, South, West):

Page 11: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

We model U.S. wood supply and demand at several market levels in USFPM . . .

Timber(standing trees, or stumpage)

Timber Product Outputs(delivered logs & chips)

Forest Product s

Harvest Mills

Page 12: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

We model “wood fuel feedstock” demand = harvested fuelwood and fuel residues. . .

TimberTPO

Harvest Mills

FuelwoodHarvest

Fuel Residues

Wood Fuel Feedstock

Page 13: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Compared to the GFPM, USFPM has a much more complete regional supply structure for wood and wood fiber, with base year (2006) timber supplies calibrated precisely to Forest Service regional FIA data and TPO data by species group:

GFPM

Industrial RoundwoodFuelwood

Other Indust. Rndwd.Other Fiber PulpWastepaper

USFPM

Softwood SawtimberHardwood SawtimberSoftwood Non-SawtimberHardwood Non-Sawtimber

Other Fiber PulpRecovered Paper

Softwood Ag. SRWCHardwood Ag. SRWC

Mill Residues

Sawlogs/Veneer logsOther Indust. RndwdHarvest ResidueFuel FeedstockPulpwood/Comp.

Page 14: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

(GTR-WO-78)

FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM (corresponding to data in RPA “Forest Resources” report, GTR-WO-78 ): Sawtimber & Non-Sawtimber harvests (HW/SW) Timber Product Outputs per unit of timber harvest Harvest Residues per unit of timber harvest Fuel & Fiber (Mill) Residue outputs (HW/SW) Forest Inventories & Net Annual Growth (HW/SW)

Page 15: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

USFPM also allows “cascading” economic substitution of raw materials into fiber or energy products based on prices and costs – i.e. if demand or prices for fuel or pulpwood become high enough, they can consume higher value inputs:

Agric. SRWCSawlogs

Logging Residue

Pulpwood/Composite

Fiber Residue

Fuel Residue

Fuel Feedstock

60% of logging residue can be recovered and used for fuel feedstock, but this requires a price higher than current fuelwood price, to pay for residue recovery expense

Page 16: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

FIA/TPO data relevant to bioenergy in USFPM include . . .

Fuelwood Harvest & Logging Residue supplies, modeled as “by-products” of timber harvest activities in USFPM

Fuel Residue (mill residue) supply, modeled in USFPM as “by-products” of forest product production activities

Fuel Feedstock demand = Total wood demand for energy including fuelwood, fuel residues, and “cascading” supplies of pulpwood, SRWC, logging residues, etc.

Page 17: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Summary

USFPM model developed for 2010 RPA using FIA/TPO fuelwood harvest, fuel residue and logging residue data

USFPM also models potential “cascading” use of logging residues, pulpwood, Ag. SRWC, and even sawlogs for energy (but only if economical to do so)

The “Fuel Feedstock Demand” encompasses all wood demands for energy (not differentiated by end use)

Page 18: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

RPA Wood EnergyScenarios (IPCC)

Page 19: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

According to IPCC (and RPA scenarios), the peaking of global petroleum output will occur within the next couple of decades . . .

Page 20: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

IPCC (SRES): World petroleum output peaks during 2020-2030 in all three of our scenarios . . . Peaking of oil causes subsequent massive increases in bio-energy

0

50

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1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

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2100

Exa

jou

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(=10

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A1B

A2

B2

{

Page 21: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

RPA Scenarios: We calibrate U.S. demand growth for wood fuel feedstock to IPCC scenarios on biomass energy production, as shown here . . .

0

10

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2010

2020

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Exa

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(=10

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les)

A1BA2

B2

Projections calibrated to 6 EJ primary biomass energy in 2000 (as in B2 scenario)

~6X

~5X

~2X

Page 22: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

U.S. Fuel Feedstock Output by Source & A1B Projection (MMCM)

0

100

200

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060RW Harvest Fuel Residue SW Pulpwood HW Pulpwood Fiber Residue

Harvest Residue Howard RW TPO Fuel Residue

Massive (~6X) increase in U.S. wood fuel feedstock demand (2010-2060) is a feature of A1B scenario. Energy demands eat into pulpwood, mill residues & harvest residues . . .

Page 23: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

USFPM A1 Projection - Total U.S. Wood Harvest (MMCM)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Residue Removal

Agric. SRWC

Non-Sawtimber

Sawtimber

Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) more than triples(!) in A1 scenario, with expanding wood energy & net exports:

Page 24: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

USFPM A2 Projection - Total U.S. Wood Harvest (MMCM)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Residue Removal

Agric. SRWC

Non-Sawtimber

Sawtimber

Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lower in the A2 scenario, with lower wood energy and lower net exports:

Page 25: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

USFPM B2 Projection - Total Forest Biomass Supply (MMCM)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Residue Removal

Agric. SRWC

Non-Sawtimber

Sawtimber

Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lowest in the B2 scenario, with not quite a doubling in harvest by 2060:

Page 26: Peter Ince U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Madison, WI

Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs

USFPM calibrated to current FIA/TPO data (WO-GTR-78) does not require additional wood bioenergy data

However, if bioenergy use expands, future RPA models (2015 RPA?) may need more detailed wood energy data, such as harvest and residue volumes by more detailed wood energy categories (conventional fuelwood, wood for fuel pellets, wood biomass burned for electric power, wood biomass for liquid fuels, etc.)