peter saunders and christopher snowdon presentation to the rsa. july 2010

8/9/2019 Peter Saunders and Christopher Snowdon Presentation to the RSA. July 2010.

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A critique ofThe Spirit Level

Peter Saunders(author: Beware False Prophets)

Chris Snowdon(author: The Spirit Level Delusion)

Debate at the Royal Society of Arts, London,

22 July 2010


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HAPPINESS/EQUALITY


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HAPPINESS/GNI ($)


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Quality of life index

1. Health: Life expectancy at birth (in years). Source: US Census Bureau2. Family life: Divorce rate (per 1,000 population), converted into index of 1 (lowest divorce rates) to 5

(highest). Sources: UN; Euromonitor3. Community life: Variable taking value 1 if country has either high rate of church attendance or trade-

union membership; zero otherwise. Source: World Values Survey4. Material well being: GDP per person, at PPP in $. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit5. Political stability and security: Political stability and security ratings. Source: Economist Intelligence

Unit

6. Climate and geography: Latitude, to distinguish between warmer and colder climates. Source: CIAWorld Factbook7. Job security: Unemployment rate (%.) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit8. Political freedom:Average of indexes of political and civil liberties. Scale of 1 (completely free) to 7

(unfree). Source: Freedom House9. Gender equality: Measured using ratio of average male and female earnings. Source: UNDP Human

Development Report


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There is no evidence for an explanation sometimes

proffered for the apparent paradox of increasing incomes

and stagnant life-satisfaction scores: the idea that an

increase in someones income causes envy and reducesthe welfare and satisfaction of others. In our estimates,

the level of income inequality had no impact on levels of

life satisfaction.

The Economist Quality of Life index (2005)


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Now that good data on income inequality have become available

for 16 western industrialised countries, the association between

income inequality and life expectancy has disappeared.

Prof. Johan Mackenbach, Professor of Public Health, University of

Rotterdam

Income inequality and population health: Evidence favouring a

negative correlation between income inequality and life expectancy

has disappeared, British Medical Journal, 2002 (Editorial)


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Although there are many puzzles that remain, I conclude that there

is no direct link from income inequality to ill-health; individuals are

no more likely to die if they live in more unequal places.

Prof. Angus Deaton, Professor of Economics and International

Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School and the Economics

Department at Princeton

Health, inequality and economic development, Journal of Economic

Literature, May 2001


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The preponderance of evidence suggests that the relationship

between income inequality and health is either non-existent or too

fragile to show up in a robustly estimated panel specification. The

best cross-national studies now uniformly fail to find a statistically

reliable relationship between economic inequality and longevity.- Andrew Leigh, Professor of Economics, Australian National

University, Christopher Jencks, Malcolm Wiener Professor of Social

Policy, Harvard Kennedy School, Timothy Smeeding, Distinguished

Professor of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin.

Health and economic inequality in W. Salverda et al (eds), TheOxford Handbook of Economic Inequality2009


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LIFE EXPECTANCY


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LIFE EXPECTANCY


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LIFE EXPECTANCY


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OBESITY


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OBESITY


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The evidence presented in the book is mostly a series of

scatter diagrams with a regression line drawn through

them. If you remove the bold lines from the diagram, the

pattern of points mostly looks random, and the datadominated by a few outliers.

John Kay, Professor of Economics at London Business

School, Financial Times 2009


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1. OUTLIERS:

Income Inequality and HomicideIfBritain became as equal as [Scandinavia] homicide rates could fall by 75%With USA: R2 = 0.22, p=0.025


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1. OUTLIERS:

Income Inequality and HomicideIfBritain became as equal as [Scandinavia] homicide rates could fall by 75%With USA: R2 = 0.22, p=0.025 Without USA: R

2 = 0.10, p=0.159(not significant)


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1. OUTLIERS:

Inequality and Childhood ObesityWith USA: R2 = 0.306; p = 0.008

Without USA: R2 = 0.084;

p = 0.129 (not significant)


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1. OUTLIERS:

Inequality and Life expectancyWith Japan: R2 = 0.154, p= 0.036. Without Japan: R

2 = 0.057,

p = 0.148 (not significant)


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2.CULTURAL/HISTORICAL FACTORS:

Inequality and Womens statusWith Scandinavia: R2 = 0.211,p =0.016

Without Scandinavia:R2 = -0.030,p = 0.503 (not significant)


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2.CULTURAL/HISTORICAL FACTORS:

Inequality and Patents(NB: Unequal variances)With Scandinavia: R2 = 0.203,

p = 0.020

Without Scandinavia: R2 = 0.013, p =0.287 (not significant)


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WHY ITS CRUCIAL TO TEST FOR CULTURAL/

HISTORICAL FACTORS

Saunders tries to dismiss our evidence by variously excluding countries...

arbitrarily cutting out certain countries (Wilkinson and Pickett, The Guardian

website, 9 July 2010)

Japan, Scandinavia

Traditional agrarian latedevelopers

Folk tradition, strong

national/collective identity

Ethnic homogeneity, lowimmigration, little inter-

marriage with outsiders

State expresses ideal of

Peoples Home

UK and Anglo settler countries

Very early moderniser, earlydemise of feudalism

Weak family bonds, strongly

individualistic values

Heterogenous (esp. settlercountries), plural and

diverse

State distrusted as threat to

individual liberty


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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLES:

Inequality, Ethnicity and US homicidesHomicide and income inequality

R2=0.269, p


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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLES:Multivariate model predicting Homicide from income inequality,

ethnic composition and Deep South dummy variable

Model fit R2 =0.613,

p


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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLESInequality, Ethnicity and US infant mortalityInfant mortality and incomeinequality (R2 = 0.143, p=0.007)

Infant mortality and % African-American (R2 = 0.544 p


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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLESMultivariate model predicting infant mortality from income

inequality, ethnic composition and Deep South dummy variable Model fit R2 = 0.487,

p


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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLES

Once we control for the fraction of the population that

is black, there is no relationship between income

inequality and mortality across statesAngus Deaton, Professor of Economics & International Affairs, Princeton (Mortality,

inequality and race in American cities and states, Social Science & Medicine, 2003

Correcting" our US state analyses for the proportion of

black inhabitants is...racist because it implies the

problem is inherently the people themselves rather thantheir socioeconomic position.Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, Peter Saunderss sleight of hand, The Guardian

web site, 9 July 2010


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3. INFLUENCE OF THIRD VARIABLES

Once we control for the fraction of the population that isblack, there is no relationship between income inequalityand mortality across statesAngus Deaton, Professor of Economics & International Affairs, Princeton (Mortality,

inequality and race in American cities and states, Social Science & Medicine, 2003

The suggestion that the results in the US reflect theproportion of black people in each state is inaccurate andcontains a seriously racist slur... Correcting" our US state

analyses for the proportion of black inhabitants is...racistbecause it implies the problem is inherently the peoplethemselves rather than their socioeconomic position.Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, Peter Saunderss sleight of hand, The Guardian website, 9 July 2010


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4: Theory is refuted by trends over time

UK total crime 1960-2000 UK life expectancy 1979-2008

International life expectancy 1980-2000 International infant mortality 1980-2000

UK infant mortality 1961-2008


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5. The theory doesnt fit JapanWilkinson & Picketts inadequate, one-dimensional understanding of

social stratification leads to major problems in their account

John Goldthorpe, Analysing social inequality, European Sociological Review2009

How people see youmatters...social status [isone of] the most

important markers ofpsychosocial stress inmodern societies

The Spirit Level, 40-1

Japan is a society in whichhierarchical ranking permeatespersonal interactions morethan mostRon Dore, Taking Japan Seriously1987

Hierarchical ranking runsthrough Japanese life.... There

is no doubt that hierarchicaldifferences affect interactionbetween Japanese people intheir everyday lives. It isdifficult to know how tobehave unless one can placeother people in a hierarchicalorder in relation to oneselfJoy Hendry, Understanding JapaneseSociety, 3rd edn, 2003


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6.Different indicators, different findings...

Social misery is higher in

more equal societies

R=0.64, Adjusted R2 = 0.39, p

peter saunders and christopher snowdon presentation to the rsa. july 2010

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