peter wintoft swedish institute of space physics iugg, sapporo, japan, july 2, 2003 real time...
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![Page 1: Peter Wintoft Swedish Institute of Space Physics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003 Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices Peter Wintoft Swedish](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062409/56649d405503460f94a1ae75/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices
Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space Physics
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Why forecast indices?
• Summarized continuous information about time dependent phenomenon
• Used to drive models
• Large data sets available for– Analysis– Model evaluation– Model development
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Outline
• Some applications using geomagnetic indices• Real-time forecasts• The Lund Dst model
– Model evaluation
– Short term dynamics
– Long term dynamics
– Real-time operation
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Magnetospheric Specification Model
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html
- Kp
Input:
50 keV el.
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment
- Solar wind- Dst
Inputs:
http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html
10 keV to 5 MeV electrons10 keV to 1 MeV protons
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
SWRI
http://climatology.space.swri.edu/
Input: - Dst
Precipitating electron flux for energies 300 eV to 1MeV
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Stormshttp://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Kp Scale
5 G1
6 G2
7 G3
8 – 9- G4
9 G5
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Input: - Kp
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Kp for GIC forecasts
Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Real-time forecastsIndex URL
AE http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/ae.htmlhttp://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/vassi/rt/main.html
Dst http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/dst.htmlhttp://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/klimas/htmls/dst.htmlhttp://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/http://www2.crl.go.jp/uk/uk223/service/http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.htmlhttp://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index/http://www.iki.rssi.ru/apetruko/forecast/forecast.html
Kp http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/index.htmlhttp://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.html
Ap http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.htmlhttp://www.sepc.ac.cn/english/
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
Models Indices
http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
An element for continuously monitoring the solar wind
Solar Wind Monitor
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc
Kp at RWC-Sweden
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc
Dst at RWC-Sweden
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Matlab
Java
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Overall performance of different Dst models
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst
t
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Power spectrum
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Wavelet of Dst
27 d
0.5 y1 y
1.3 y
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Wavelet of predicted Dst
27 d
0.5 y1 y
1.3 y
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Effect of data gaps
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Future
• List of updated forecast models– ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!)– Plots, Data, Models– Evaluation
• Evaluation– RMS error and correlation (overall performance)– Skill scores (comparative overall performance)– Onset times– Long term dynamics– Real time performance
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Peter WintoftSwedish Institute of Space PhysicsIUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Indices
Power grid
Spacecraft