petri hakkarainen: the energiewende - the story so far

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies IASS in Potsdam

The German Energiewende – The Story So Far

Dr. Petri Hakkarainen Senior Fellow IASS Potsdam


What? – A Definition of the Energiewende

Much more than just a nuclear phase-out A complete transformation of the energy system of a highly industrialized

country Not just an exit from something, also an entry into something new An energy system based on renewables and energy efficiency – replacing

nuclear and fossil fuels All three corners of the energy triangle need to be taken into account Security of supply, competitiveness, sustainability Common denominators with European energy policy? 2020 targets for CO2 emissions, renewables and efficiency Roadmap 2050 and the “no-regret options” energy efficiency, renewables,

grid development


The German Electricity Mix in 2012

Lignite 25,7 % Oil 1,5 %

Hard coal 19,1 %

Natural gas 11,3 %

Renewables 22,1 %

Nuclear 16,1 %

Source: AG Energiebilanzen

Others 4,2 %


The German Electricity Mix in 2050

Renewables 80 %

Fossil fuels combined 20 %


The German Energy Mix in 2012

Natural gas 21,6 %

Nuclear 8,0 %

Hard coal 12,2 %

Lignite 12,1 %

Renewables 11,6 %

Oil 33,1 %

Source: AG Energiebilanzen

Others 1,4 %


The German Energy Mix in 2050

Renewables 60 %

Fossil fuels combined 40 %


When? – A Time Frame for the Energiewende

Commitment to a project spanning decades The Energiewende started well before 2011 and

will continue at least until the 2050s Long history of the nuclear phase-out Strong anti-nuclear movement from the 1970s Red-Green consensus with the industry in 2000 U-turns of the current government 2010/2011 Now the divisive nuclear issue is finally settled Support schemes for renewable energy sources First feed-in tariff in 1991 Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) in 2000 Long term vs. short term in the future


Why? – Goals and Motives of the Energiewende

In plain numbers, the main targets are clearly set Nuclear phase-out: completed by 2022 Share of renewables in electricity consumption: 80 % by 2050 Share of renewables in total energy consumption: 60 % by 2050 Reduction of electricity consumption: 25 % by 2050 (compared to 2008) CO2 emissions reduction: 80-95 % by 2050 (compared to 1990) However, difficult to define one or two overarching drivers Nuclear exit and climate protection? Increasing share of renewables? Energy independence? Industry policy? Jobs and growth? Decentralized energy generation? All of the above?


Where? – A Geography of the Energiewende

Spatial changes within Germany Locations of new and old supply Increasingly decentralized generation Germany’s location at the heart of Europe Central role in grid expansion Loop flows and the neighbouring countries Germany in the world Potential global impact of the example set Decoupling emissions from growth An energy system that can be “globalized”

Source: Bundesnetzagentur


How? – Solutions for the Energiewende

Wind and solar as the basis of the future energy system Problems resulting from intermittency: “overcapacity” required Grid extension and smart grids vs. storage technologies Flexibility and demand-side management Energy-only market vs. a new market design Current electricity market suits neither renewable nor conventional sources Role of capacity markets and strategic reserves

Need for more systemic thinking Focus has been predominantly on electricity supply – what about demand,

heat and transport? How to take the necessary steps now, but make sure that the system

remains open to adjustments in the future?


At What Cost? – A Price Tag for the Energiewende

The EEG as the victim of its own success Long-term cumulative effects of fixed 20-year tariffs Decreasing rates outweighed by increasing volumes and the PV boom Paradoxical effect on the market: wholesale price down, surcharge up A reform of the EEG urgently needed

Overall costs The “Altmaier trillion” probably exaggerated But the price tag for the next decades will be in the hundreds of billions Justice and equity: who pays, who is exempted, what is affordable? Costs or investments? Not just subsidies that are burned away An investment in future infrastructure and immediate electricity generation Learning curves vs. the cheapest technology today The alternative is not free either


Who? – Governance and Actors of the Energiewende

How many Energiewendes are there? Federal level and the Länder – plans not always compatible How deep does decentralization go? Municipalities, private individuals, energy cooperatives and “prosumers” Is it possible to manage an energy transition? Can there be a central master plan? Would an energy ministry solve the governance problem? “Gemeinschaftswerk” The Ethics Commission in 2011: the energy transition will only succeed

through a collective effort spanning all levels of politics, business and society

Could there be a European Gemeinschaftswerk ?


Conclusion – The Future Made in Germany?


Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Petri Hakkarainen Senior Fellow [email protected]

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Berliner Straße 130 D – 14467 Potsdam Web: www.iass-potsdam.de

http://www.iass-potsdam.de/




Source: BMU-DLR-IWES-IfnE (2012)

Predominance of Wind and Solar in Future Scenarios


Average Electricity Costs for Private Consumers


Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies

Inspired by the 2007 Nobel Laureate Symposium “Global Sustainability – A Nobel Cause” held in Potsdam

Founded in 2009, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research and by the State of Brandenburg

Rapid growth: now an international staff of over a hundred people working with a holistic and transdisciplinary approach to sustainability issues

Three main research areas and clusters: GCS: Global Contract for Sustainability (Prof. Dr. Klaus Töpfer) E3: Earth, Energy and the Environment (Prof. Dr. Carlo Rubbia) SIWA: Sustainable Interactions with the Atmosphere (Dr. Mark Lawrence)


Transdisciplinary Panel on Energy Change (TPEC)

Part of the GCS Cluster, “Plattform Energiewende” (TPEC) was launched in March 2012

TPEC’s mission is to help the Energiewende succeed by providing independent scientific guidance enabling a knowledge transfer between science,

politics, civil society and industry Priority areas in the first year: 1) future of the

renewables legislation, 2) CO2 emissions and the conventional power plants, 3) social balancing of the Energiewende, 4) demand-side management, 5) Europe

An interdisciplinary team with a diverse set of methods: Own research Thematic working groups and workshops “TPEC Bilaterals” series Public hearings IASS cooperation with acatech and MPG in the

new “Research Forum Energiewende”

petri hakkarainen: the energiewende - the story so far

Documents

kalevi sorsa foundation

energy system

german energy mix

energy triangle

energy independence

share of renewables

total energy consumption

european energy policy