petrobras´ business plan - at a glance | ceo josé sergio gabrielli de azevedo - thomson reuters...
TRANSCRIPT
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PETROBRAS’ BUSINESS PLAN AT A GLANCE
José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO
November, 1st 2011
Thomson Reuters Asia
2
1.855 1.971 2.004 2.100
321 317 334 435
618
1.120
111 132 144 141
180
246
99 96 93
96
125
142
2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International
2,386 2,516
6,418
3,993
1,148 543
Pre-Salt
’00
0 b
oe
/day
2,772
845 Transfer of Rights
13
+10 Post-Salt Projects
+8 Pre-Salt Projects
+1 Transfer of Rights
+ 35 Systems
Added Capacity
Oil: 2,300,000 bpd
2,575
3,070
4,910
Petrobras’ production targets…
3
… will call for critical resources …
Critical Resources Current Situation
(Dec/10)
Delivery Plan (to be contracted) Accumulated Value
By 2013 By 2015 By 2020
Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 15 39 37 (1) 65 (2)
Supply and Special Vessel 287 423 479 568
Production Platforms (SS and FPSO) 44 54 61 94
Others (Jacket and TLWP) 78 80 81 83
(1) The contracts for two rigs reallocated from international operations expire in 2015 (2) Long-term demand will be adjusted according to new assessments
Water Depth 2006 2008 2010
Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11
1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21
Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15
2011 2012 2013
+2 +1 +1
+10 +13 +1
Supply Vessel Drilling Rig FPSO
DRILLING RIGS UNDER CONTRACT
4
US$ billion
… that will be increasingly built in brazil …
57,30% 59,70%
63,10% 59,90%
64,00% 66,00% 67,20% 68,50%
72,80%
57,00%
62,20%
70,00%
74,30% 75,40% 75,60% 75,60% 74,60% 76,10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Investments in Brazil Total Investments Local Content (target) Local Content (actual)
5
2 Jack-ups under construction (P-59 and P-60) in São Roque (BA)
Inclusion of 900 new suppliers per year in Petrobras' Corporate Vendor List
13 new shipyards currently under construction, raising the total number to 50*
... as already happens with platforms at the new shipyards
*Source: Sinaval
Recently built platform:
P-57: BrasFels – RJ Capacity: 180 thous. boe/day Value: US$ 1.2 billion Delivered two months ahead of schedule
8 FPSOs (Pre-salt - P-66; P-67; P-68; P-69; P-70; P-71; P-72; P-73 ): Ecovix – Rio Grande (RS)
P-61: Brasfels (RJ) P-62: Jurong (ES)
P-63: QUIP (RS)
FPSO Cidade de Paraty: Brasfels (RJ) - modules and integration
FPSO Cidade de São Paulo: Brasfels (RJ) - modules and integration
Under Construction:
Under Construction:
Under Construction: P-55: Estaleiro Atlântico Sul – PE (hull) /QUIP- RS (modules)
P-58: Estaleiro Rio Grande –RS , UTC Engenharia S/A – RJ e EBE – RJ.
P-56: Brasfels (RJ)
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Pre-salt’s development will require new infrastructure
7
Petrobras holds an outstanding resources base …
Million boe
Potential increase
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
Onshore 0-300 m 300-1500 m > 1500 m Pre-salt's Recoverable Volume Transfer of Rights
8
125,0148,9
224,7 224,7
91,4 67,0
31,4 30,926,1 26,1
13,6 13,6
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Scenario A Scenario B
FX rate (R$/US$) 1.73 1.73
Brent (US$/bbl)
2011 – 110 2011 – 110
2012 – 80 2012 – 95
2013– 80 2013– 95
2014 – 80 2014 – 95
2015 – 80 2015 – 95
Leverage (average)
29% 26%
Net debt/ Ebitda (average)
1.9 1.5
ARP (R$/bbl) 158 177
… and our business plan is mostly funded by operating cash flow
40% of capex in US$ (vs 37% in the previous plan)
Scenario A Scenario B
US$ 256,1 US$ 255,6 US$ 256,1 US$ 255,6
Debt amortization
Investiments
Divestments and reestructurings
Cash
Debt
Operating cash flow (after dividends)
Sources Uses Sources Uses
9
181
2.004 2.100
3.070
4.910
1.393 1.798 1.811
2.205
3.217
1.036
2.147 2.208
2.536
3.095
1980 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil and NGL production - Brazil Throughput - Brazil Oil products demand (2 scenarios)
3.327
2.643
To meet the increase in oil products demand in Brazil we will expand our refining capacity ...
ABREU E LIMA 230 kbpd
(2012)
COMPERJ (1st train) 165 kbpd
(2013)
PREMIUM I (2nd train) 300 kbpd
(2019)
PREMIUM II 300 kbpd
(2017)
COMPERJ (2nd train) 165 kbpd
(2018)
PREMIUM I (1st train) 300 kbpd
(2016)
(th
ou
san
d b
pd
)
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... as well as our ethanol production
273%
1,5
Pbio + Partners
5,6
16%
735
855
Biodiesel supply (thousand m3)
2011 2015
Ethanol supply (million m3)
2011 2015
Market-share Pbio+Partners:
2011: 5,3% / 2015: 12%
1,9
1,3
0,6 0,3
Ethanol Ethanol Logistics Biodiesel R&D
47%
7%
32%
14%
Market-share Pbio+Partners:
2011: 28% / 2015: 26%
US$ 4.1 billion
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