petrobras´ business plan - at a glance | ceo josé sergio gabrielli de azevedo - thomson reuters...

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1 PETROBRAS’ BUSINESS PLAN AT A GLANCE José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO November, 1st 2011 Thomson Reuters Asia

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Page 1: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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PETROBRAS’ BUSINESS PLAN AT A GLANCE

José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO

November, 1st 2011

Thomson Reuters Asia

Page 2: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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1.855 1.971 2.004 2.100

321 317 334 435

618

1.120

111 132 144 141

180

246

99 96 93

96

125

142

2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International

2,386 2,516

6,418

3,993

1,148 543

Pre-Salt

’00

0 b

oe

/day

2,772

845 Transfer of Rights

13

+10 Post-Salt Projects

+8 Pre-Salt Projects

+1 Transfer of Rights

+ 35 Systems

Added Capacity

Oil: 2,300,000 bpd

2,575

3,070

4,910

Petrobras’ production targets…

Page 3: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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… will call for critical resources …

Critical Resources Current Situation

(Dec/10)

Delivery Plan (to be contracted) Accumulated Value

By 2013 By 2015 By 2020

Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 15 39 37 (1) 65 (2)

Supply and Special Vessel 287 423 479 568

Production Platforms (SS and FPSO) 44 54 61 94

Others (Jacket and TLWP) 78 80 81 83

(1) The contracts for two rigs reallocated from international operations expire in 2015 (2) Long-term demand will be adjusted according to new assessments

Water Depth 2006 2008 2010

Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11

1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21

Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15

2011 2012 2013

+2 +1 +1

+10 +13 +1

Supply Vessel Drilling Rig FPSO

DRILLING RIGS UNDER CONTRACT

Page 4: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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US$ billion

… that will be increasingly built in brazil …

57,30% 59,70%

63,10% 59,90%

64,00% 66,00% 67,20% 68,50%

72,80%

57,00%

62,20%

70,00%

74,30% 75,40% 75,60% 75,60% 74,60% 76,10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Investments in Brazil Total Investments Local Content (target) Local Content (actual)

Page 5: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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2 Jack-ups under construction (P-59 and P-60) in São Roque (BA)

Inclusion of 900 new suppliers per year in Petrobras' Corporate Vendor List

13 new shipyards currently under construction, raising the total number to 50*

... as already happens with platforms at the new shipyards

*Source: Sinaval

Recently built platform:

P-57: BrasFels – RJ Capacity: 180 thous. boe/day Value: US$ 1.2 billion Delivered two months ahead of schedule

8 FPSOs (Pre-salt - P-66; P-67; P-68; P-69; P-70; P-71; P-72; P-73 ): Ecovix – Rio Grande (RS)

P-61: Brasfels (RJ) P-62: Jurong (ES)

P-63: QUIP (RS)

FPSO Cidade de Paraty: Brasfels (RJ) - modules and integration

FPSO Cidade de São Paulo: Brasfels (RJ) - modules and integration

Under Construction:

Under Construction:

Under Construction: P-55: Estaleiro Atlântico Sul – PE (hull) /QUIP- RS (modules)

P-58: Estaleiro Rio Grande –RS , UTC Engenharia S/A – RJ e EBE – RJ.

P-56: Brasfels (RJ)

Page 6: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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Pre-salt’s development will require new infrastructure

Page 7: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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Petrobras holds an outstanding resources base …

Million boe

Potential increase

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

Onshore 0-300 m 300-1500 m > 1500 m Pre-salt's Recoverable Volume Transfer of Rights

Page 8: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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125,0148,9

224,7 224,7

91,4 67,0

31,4 30,926,1 26,1

13,6 13,6

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Scenario A Scenario B

FX rate (R$/US$) 1.73 1.73

Brent (US$/bbl)

2011 – 110 2011 – 110

2012 – 80 2012 – 95

2013– 80 2013– 95

2014 – 80 2014 – 95

2015 – 80 2015 – 95

Leverage (average)

29% 26%

Net debt/ Ebitda (average)

1.9 1.5

ARP (R$/bbl) 158 177

… and our business plan is mostly funded by operating cash flow

40% of capex in US$ (vs 37% in the previous plan)

Scenario A Scenario B

US$ 256,1 US$ 255,6 US$ 256,1 US$ 255,6

Debt amortization

Investiments

Divestments and reestructurings

Cash

Debt

Operating cash flow (after dividends)

Sources Uses Sources Uses

Page 9: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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181

2.004 2.100

3.070

4.910

1.393 1.798 1.811

2.205

3.217

1.036

2.147 2.208

2.536

3.095

1980 2010 2011 2015 2020

Oil and NGL production - Brazil Throughput - Brazil Oil products demand (2 scenarios)

3.327

2.643

To meet the increase in oil products demand in Brazil we will expand our refining capacity ...

ABREU E LIMA 230 kbpd

(2012)

COMPERJ (1st train) 165 kbpd

(2013)

PREMIUM I (2nd train) 300 kbpd

(2019)

PREMIUM II 300 kbpd

(2017)

COMPERJ (2nd train) 165 kbpd

(2018)

PREMIUM I (1st train) 300 kbpd

(2016)

(th

ou

san

d b

pd

)

Page 10: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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... as well as our ethanol production

273%

1,5

Pbio + Partners

5,6

16%

735

855

Biodiesel supply (thousand m3)

2011 2015

Ethanol supply (million m3)

2011 2015

Market-share Pbio+Partners:

2011: 5,3% / 2015: 12%

1,9

1,3

0,6 0,3

Ethanol Ethanol Logistics Biodiesel R&D

47%

7%

32%

14%

Market-share Pbio+Partners:

2011: 28% / 2015: 26%

US$ 4.1 billion

Page 11: Petrobras´ Business Plan - At a Glance | CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Thomson Reuters Asia

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