petrobras opportunities in a new oil & gas scenario · 2017. 5. 4. · petrobras pipeline and...
TRANSCRIPT
Petrobras opportunities
in a new oil & gas scenario
Pedro Parente, CEO of Petrobras
Fonte: Bloomberg
Major corruption scandal: Car Wash
Challenging economic scenario
Huge fiscal imbalance
Deep and prolonged recession
Exchange rate volatility
Political transition
The Brazilian scenario
in 2016
—
Unemployment Rate (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
jan/15
fev/15
mar/
15
abr/
15
mai/
15
jun/15
jul/
15
ago/15
set/
15
out/
15
nov/15
dez/
15
jan/16
fev/16
mar/
16
abr/
16
mai/
16
jun/16
jul/
16
ago/16
set/
16
out/
16
nov/16
dez/
16
jan/17
Source: PNAD Contínua
Industrial capacity utilization
687072747678808284
% 4
-quart
ers
movin
g
avera
ge
Source: FGV
12,6
2
External and domestic judicial disputes
High levels of debt, with concentrated maturities
Regulatory framework
Obligatory participation in pre-salt
Local content requirements
Very low internal motivation level, due to the
corruption scandal
Other risks related to the business not addressed
at that time
At the same time, Petrobras faced its
own challenges
—
3
2006 2016
17
2006 2016
21
26
(*) Operating cash generation Gross Debt
Petrobras
60
Operating cash generation Gross Debt
Peer group average of Exxon, BP, Chevron, Shell
Source: Evaluate Energy and Companies Reports
Rapid increase of gross debt, reaching more than 6 times the level of 2009, and much above
the industry level. Ratio net debt/OCG(*) reaching more than 5 times at the end of 2015
—
132
118
Gross Debt relative to Cash Generation
(US$ billion)
Gross Debt relative to Cash Generation
(US$ billion)
4
Peer group average of Exxon, BP, Chevron, Shell Petrobras
Interest payments
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.7
7.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.3
Source: Evaluate Energy and Companies reports
Four folds higher interest payments, compared to 2009, and almost 6 times the peer group
average
—
Interest payments (US$ billion) Interest payments (US$ billion)
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
jan/15
mar/
15
mai/
15
jul/
15
set/
15
nov/15
jan/16
mar/
16
mai/
16
jul/
16
set/
16
nov/16
jan/17
Source: Bloomberg
Credit Default Swap (Brazil 5 yrs)
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
55.000
60.000
65.000
70.000
jan/15
mar/
15
mai/
15
jul/
15
set/
15
nov/15
jan/16
mar/
16
mai/
16
jul/
16
set/
16
nov/16
jan/17
Source: Bloomberg
Bovespa Index
Since the political transition, financial indicators have anticipated improvements in the
Brazilian economy
—
6
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
jan/15
mar/
15
mai/
15
jul/
15
set/
15
nov/15
jan/16
mar/
16
mai/
16
jul/
16
set/
16
nov/16
Source: Central Bank
4,16
9,00
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
jan/15
abr/
15
jul/
15
out/
15
jan/16
abr/
16
jul/
16
out/
16
jan/17
abr/
17
jul/
17
out/
17
Source: Centrak Bank/Focus*
IPCA (% 12 months) Selic rate (%)
* The numbers for 2017 and 2018 are market forecasts collected by the central bank
The drop in inflation has allowed interest rates to fall, which could positively impact
consumption and investment
—
Inflation and Interest Rate Household Debt (% income)
7
1,9
3,0
0,5
-3,8 -3,6
0,48
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: BCB/Focus Forecasting
GDP annual real growth (%)
Some important economic measures have been implemented and others are being discussed
Government spending cap
Labor reform
Social security reform under discussion in Congress
Economic activity is starting to recover after a deep recession
—
8
Focus forecast
Petrobras Strategic Plan 2017-2021
—
An integrated energy company focused
on oil and gas that evolves with
society, creating high value, with a
unique technical capability
Our Vision
—
10
Safety is our priority
—
Source: Petrobras and subsidiaries
HSE: Health, security and environment
Reduction
36% on the Total Recordable Injury
Frequency Rate (TRIFR*)
TO
1.4
in 2018
FROM
2 .2 in 2015
1.6 in 2016
Safety metric
On going assessment of safety
procedures
Stricter rules and enforcement
of HSE procedures in all
supplier contracts
Systemic treatment of HSE
issues
“Commitment to Life” Program
11
On going training program on
HSE Golden Rules
FINANCIAL
Reduction in
LEVERAGE Net Debt/EBITDA
TO
2.5 by 2018
FROM
5.1 in 2015
3.5 in 2016
Increased capex productivity
Increased opex efficiency
Partnerships and divestments
New pricing policy
DRIVERS
Strategic Plan: financial target and drivers
—
12
13
A new boost for partnerships —
Petrobras is intensifying its partnerships… —
...with operators ...with service companies ...with research institutions
18
Total area:
149,000 km² SANTOS BASIN
CAMPOS
BASIN
CAMPOS BASIN Cutting edge
technological
development
Lower research
costs
Faster production
growth
Lower CAPEX
Lower lifting cost
Competitive
breakeven
This is boosting produtivity in upstream activities
—
19
SANTOS BASIN
Technological partnerships help the company to overcome challenges
—
Canada
USA
Europe
Japan
Australia Argentina
16
COMPANIES AND SUPPLIERS
Partnerships with more than 62 universities and 25 R&D
institutions worldwide
Partnerships with 120 Brazilian universities
Process safety, integrity and reliability of
plant and equipment
Opening up new exploratory frontiers
Reduce breakeven oil prices and operating
costs
Fostering the company's environmental and
social values
Transition to low carbon matrix
Increase process safety and plant integrity & reliability of management capabilities to ensure operational continuity
Provide technology and technological capability to back up exploratory efforts
Boost E&P profitability by cutting CAPEX and OPEX
Provide technology to satisfy environmental legislation and social responsibilities, while ensuring cost optimization
Boost capabilities and identify new business opportunities in the long term, while transitioning to a low carbon energy matrix
CO2
Main technological focuses of the 2017-2021 Business Plan
—
17
Downstream in Brazil: 6th largest market for oil consumption worldwide
long-position in crude oil, short-position in oil products, and far from main markets
Petrobras is also interested in finding partners for downstream activities, maintaining its
integrated supply chain strategy —
18
Crude Oil
Oil Products
Privileged geographic position for
spreads
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2017 2021 2025 2030
917 997 1097 1225
529 476 493 527
863 956
1023 1093
Brazilian oil product market
(Million bpd)
2.3 2.4 2.6
2.8
Diesel Others Gasoline
Petrobras refining capacity —
LUBNOR
REMAN RPCC
RNEST
RLAM
REGAP
REDUC
REVAP
RPBC
REPLAN
RECAP
REPAR
SIX
REFAP
PRSI
Distillation Capacity:
> 2.2 MM bpd
Refineries:
14
19
Petrobras pipeline and terminal infrastructure —
Terminals:
48
Pipelines:
7.517 km Operation supporting vessels:
180
20
TRANSPORTE MARÍTIMO
OLEODUTO
GASODUTO
TERMINAL GNL
TERMINAL TERRESTRE
TERMINAL AQUAVIÁRIO
GASODUTO BRASIL/BOLÍVIA
(GASBOL) DUTOS DE ESCOAMENTO
REFINARIA
UNIDADE DE PROCESSAMENTO
DE GÁS NATURAL
PLATAFORMA
Partnerships and divestments
2017-2018
US$ 21 B
2015-2016
Partnership and divestment program took off last year and will continue to be our focus
—
Strategic Partnership
with Total
US$ 13,6 B
Strategic Partnership
with Statoil
21
Strategic Partnership
with Galp
Petrochemicals
Biofuels
Gas Pipelines
Gas Distributors
Foreign assets
Strategic Partnerships
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS —
22
Macroeconomic risks
Geopolitical risks
Material changes in market conditions
Other Petrobras risks
Judicial disputes
Class action, DoJ, SEC
Labor and tax issues
Regulatory and environmental licensing risks
Partnerships and divestments below target
Top Risks
—
23
Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate** (TRIFR) change over the past year
—
Petrobras TRIFR
24 * Data for 2015 is year to date (YTD) * *TRIFR = number of reportable injuries per million man-hours
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Dez2015*
Jan2016
Feb2016
Mar2016
Apr2016
May2016
Jun2016
Jul2016
Aug2016
Sep2016
Oct2016
Nov2016
Dec2016
Jan2017
Feb2017
Série1 Linear (Série1)TRIFR Trendline
Net Debt / EBITDA*
FINANCIAL
*Adjusted EBITDA
Total Recordable Injury Frequency
Rate*
SAFETY
2.3 2.2
1.6
2015 2014
-24%
2016
-30%
4.71 5.11
3.54
2016
-31%
2014 2015
-25%
* TRIFR = Number of reportable injuries per million man-hours
Indicators show that we are moving towards the 2017-2022 Business Plan target
—
13
0
1
2
3
4
2017 2021
Oil+ NGL Brazil
Oil + gas International
2.52
3.34
2.07
2.77
Natural gas Brazil
2.62
3.41
Oil , NGL and Gas production (million boed)
Also committed to boosting production
—
26
Lifting Cost*
(US$/boe)
2014 2015 2016
14.1
11.7
10.3
-27%
-11%
*Brazil + International
Lifting Cost in Pre-Salt
< 8.0 US$/boe
While reducing production and refining cost
—
Refining Cost
(US$ thousand/UEDC1)
1 Unit of equivalent distillation capacity
-37%
-16%
2014 2015 2016
0,49
0,37
0,31
27
28
In a nutshell…
* Source: EvaluateEnergy
Safety 24% decrease of TRIFR (Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate) yoy
Progress in the efficiency of
investments and costs
In 2016, reduction of:
32% in investments, without reduction of the production curve increased capex productivity
6% in manageable operating costs
6% in SG&A
20% in the workforce
Records in oil and natural gas production
Average oil production in Brazil reached a historic annual record in 2016 (2,144 kbpd)
Production target was met for two consecutive years
Petrobras became recently a net exporter, with exports growing 12% in the 4Q16
29
In a nutshell…
* Source: EvaluateEnergy
Constant improvement of economic and
financials results
Free cash flow positive for the 7th quarter in a row and 162% above 2015
Operating income of R$ 17 Billion in 2016 (vs loss of R$ 12 Billion in 2015)
2016 yoy increase of 16% of adjusted EBITDA
Petrobras posted the highest operating cash flow among its peers companies, as well as the highest EBITDA margin (31% vs 18% on average*)
Acceleration of deleverage
process
6% decrease in gross debt US dollars and 22% in Reais
Pre-payment and amortization of debt with proceeds from divestments and operating cash flow
31% reduction in Net Debt/adjusted EBITDA, from 5.11 to 3.54
Partnerships Successful conclusion of US 13.6 billion in deals in 2015-2016
US 21 billion target kept for 2017-2018
New systematic for divestments fully endorsed by the Court of Accounts
Note: Considers 16 institutions
B+ BB-
B3 B2
B1
May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
Investment Grade
S&P
Moodys
Credit Agency Ratings
21% 14% 14% 20% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
79% 86% 79% 60%
47% 38% 31% 31% 31% 25%
13%
7% 20%
40% 50% 56% 56% 56% 63%
75%
May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell Side Recommendation – Rating for Petrobras shares
Improvements are seen by credit agencies and in sell side recommendations
—
30
Petrobras 5-Year Bond since 2015 – bid yield
First LM*
* LM: Liability Management
Second LM*
Third LM*
4,99%
Source: Bloomberg
Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17
Consistent reduction in the cost of debt
—
31
Petrobras Market Value vs Brent (01/01/2015=100)
Petrobras Market Value
Brent
Despite lower oil prices,
Petrobras shares rose
significantly in value during 2016
67%
-1%
Source: Bloomberg
Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17
Increased market value shows confidence in Petrobras recovery
—
32
Thank You!
Pedro Parente