PetroMall

Petroleum Risk Management in the 21st Century – not just HSE

Greg Coleman, Graham Scotton ,

Brian Smart

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Risks • Risks to be managed occur during

exploration, appraisal, development, operation, decommissioning, abandonment

• Risks include lack of return on exploration costs, drilling and development cost overshoot, less than optimum reservoir management reducing recovery factor, well integrity, security, and of course HSE

PetroMall PetroMall approach to Risk Management

• Knowledge = “what do I do?”(box ticking) is not enough

• Understanding = “I know what to do and why” is really required

• The latter underpins the evolution of risk management in a TQM-like manner which should engage everyone

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What does a Company know and understand?

What can a Company do?

Nothing

Everything it should

Everything it needs

Typical Service Company Services

Typical Training Company Services

Position of Operating Company

Positioning of a company’s human capital related to Risk Management

PetroMall Now consider New Frontiers – doubly so

• Clair - new location + fractured basement :– understanding may be limited - the comfort from knowing that we’ve done this before, or let’s see what others have done, is not necessarily there

• Hence the need to consult widely and in these times efficiently. What understanding is already “in the bank” in Universities, e.g. Heriot-Watt?

Clair

PetroMall Bank of output from industry and Research Council funded research

• Relevant research done at HWU for over 20 years • Ahead of its time • Funded by typically 1% of the industry • Understanding developed probably applied by 50% of that

1% - hence we end up with 0.5% usage • Some understanding in the public domain – but where?

What is the relevance? • But all understanding created by the University resides

with the University – this is a large resource underpinned by the experts and research groups that developed it

• Take Petroleum Rock Mechanics as an example

PetroMall HWU’s Petroleum Engineering Rock Mechanics

• Consider the stress sensitivity of the reservoir – petroleum rock mechanics. A development story going back almost 40 years.

• Hence bank of HWU rock mechanics projects –

outputs of understanding cost about 5million GBP

• Specific risk addressed here – possible lower

recovery factor due to water injection activating a preferred fracture set

PetroMall The Geological Setting of Clair

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The Conceptual Model

• The reservoir consists of blocks or layers of intact rock bounded by discontinuities

• The reservoir is naturally stressed in an anisotropic manner

• We alter these stresses by changing the pore pressure and temperature

• The ground reacts

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Thinly-bedded interval in the Annot Sandstone.This interval is underlain and overlain by more ‘massive’ sandstones.

PetroMall The Three Graces by Canova 1817 (for the Duke of Bedford)

Image courtesy of Uk-camelot

Beauty, charm and joy

PetroMall The Great Sphinx, Giza by? ?BC

Image courtesy of Usuario Barcex

PetroMall HWYH-394

Key:

Drilling-induced tension cracks

All from STAR

Bed boundary

Fracture

Unclassified, possible stylolite

PetroMall Build the

conceptual model:-

The Reservoir

“Intact” Rock - Matrix

Discontinuities

PetroMall sv

Anisotropic

Stress State

sh

sH

sh sv> sH >

Build the

conceptual model:-

The Stress State

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s

v sh sH

sh

Reservoir

Regional

Stresses

sh sh sH

The Assembled Conceptual

Model

PetroMall The large scale effects predicted

Wells lost by

shear

Wells lost due to

axial compression

Fault activation

influencing seals and

compartmentalisation

Fracture activation

influencing sweep

efficiency

PetroMall Workflow – Populating the Conceptual Model with Data

PetroMall

Fluid Flow Simulator

Stress-Analysis

Simulator

Change in Pore

Pressure,

Temperature,

Saturations

Change in

Effective Stresses

Rock Movements,

Change in Stress and

Strain

Change in

Permeability

More realistic simulation

results; real and

geological time

Reservoir and o/b

stresses, strains and

displacements; real and

geological time

Coupled

Modelling

PetroMall Modeling of Large Scale Effects

Vertical Section of Reservoir being depleted

Rock movement vectors (red > green > blue)

Bounding Faults

(VISAGE Output)

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sh

sH

sh

sH

Injector

Producer

Anisotropic stress state controls fracture opening and flood front development on injection

Plan view

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Movie – fracture opening

PetroMall Movie – Flood front development

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A couple of “gems” in the Bank

The True Triaxial Cell

Angle of Internal Friction versus Porosity

y = -1.3045x + 49.54

R2 = 0.7722

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

Porosity (%)

Ang

le o

f In

tern

al F

rict

ion

Series1

UTMN 1307

HRDH 704

HWYH 325

HWYH 394

HWYH 399

Rock Mechanical/Petrophysical Property Correlation (at stress)

Direct shear testing with confining stress

PetroMall So the understanding is there –

how do we get at it?

• By creating an intelligent social business network for the industry, linking the industry, academic researchers and consultants.

• By offering a community of experts, focused collaboration and timely, relevant responses

PetroMall PetroMall values route map

Challenge how world petroleum is understood by asking the best questions

Share knowledge, insights, ideas to stimulate relevant responses to a range of critical topics, such as risk management

Ground what’s been learned so members & clients understand the relevance of the scientific data

Practice with newfound grounded expertise, back in industry

Change so everyone gains… challenge from the outside, share and ground within PetroMall, then practice back in industry

in

expert,

stimulating,

focused

ways

Industry

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Academia

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Conclusions

• There is a significant bank of understanding available, within universities and consultants resources

• Access to this could help with the development of new frontiers

• Intelligent social business can accelerate and ensure the quality of access

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Acknowledgements

• Colleagues in PetroMall

• Former colleagues in Heriot-Watt University

• VIPS Ltd