pfc energy 50 changes in market capitalization growth...

2012 Rank

2011 Rank Company Name

Market Cap ($US billion)

% Share Price Change (YoY) Primary Business HQ Country Ticker/Exch

123456789

ExxonMobilPetroChina

Royal Dutch ShellChevron

BPEcopetrolPetrobras

TOTALGazpromCNOOC

394.6264.5222.6211.6132.1126.6124.7121.9112.396.7

0%-7%-6%0%

-3%43%

-17%0%

-8%24%

Integrated IOCIntegrated NOCIntegrated IOCIntegrated IOCIntegrated IOC

Integrated NOCIntegrated NOCIntegrated IOC

Integrated NOCIntegrated NOC

USChina

NetherlandsUSUK

ColombiaBrazil

FranceRussiaChina

XOM US601857 CH

RDSA NACVX US

BP LNECOPETL CB

PETR4 BZFP FP

GAZP RU883 HK

11121314151617181920

9171113141016211820

SinopecRosneft

SchlumbergerEni

StatoilConocoPhillips

OccidentalLUKOIL

BGSuncor

96.593.492.088.179.370.462.156.356.050.4

-4%25%-1%17%-3%3%

-20%29%

-23%12%

Drilling & Oilfield ServicesIntegrated IOC

Integrated NOCE&PE&P

Integrated IOCIntegrated IOCIntegrated IOC

ChinaRussia

USItaly

NorwayUSUS

RussiaUK

Canada

600028 CH ROSN RU

SLB USENI IM

STL NOCOP USOXY US

LKOH RUBG LNSU CN

21222324252627282930

23193225242228294031

RelianceGDF SUEZ

BHP Billiton*Enterprise

ONGCE.ON

AnadarkoImperial Oil

Enbridge NOVATEK

50.349.645.345.141.937.337.136.534.734.6

18%-26%10%6%1%

-14%-5%-4%14%-7%

R&MGas/Utilities

OtherMidstream/Infrastructure

Integrated NOCGas/Utilities

E&PIntegrated IOC

Midstream/InfrastructureE&P

IndiaFrance

AustraliaUS

IndiaGermany

USCanadaCanadaRussia

RIL INGSZ FPBHP AUEPD US

ONGC INEOAN GR

APC USIMO CNENB CN

NVTK RM

31323334353637383940

4234392633

TransCanadaPhillips 66**

EOG ResourcesHalliburton

SurgutneftegazCanadian Natural

ApacheDominion

National Oilwell VarcoHusky

33.433.232.732.231.631.630.729.829.229.1

20%-1%12%

-24%-15%-4%-3%21%

Midstream/InfrastructureR&ME&P

E&PE&P

Gas/UtilitiesEquipment & EPC

CanadaUSUSUS

RussiaCanada

USUSUS

Canada

TRP CNPSX USEOG USHAL US

SNGS RMCNQ CNAPA US

D USNOV USHSE CN

41424344454647484950

4347413627353044

WoodsideCentrica

Kinder MorganFormosa Petrochemical

TNK-BPSasol

RepsolCenovus

RWETenaris

29.028.228.228.227.927.725.425.325.324.7

13%22%-8%-4%

-31%-10%-34%

0%17%11%

E&PGas/Utilities

Midstream/InfrastructureR&M

E&PGas/Utilities

Equipment & EPC

AustraliaUKUS

TaiwanRussia

South AfricaSpain

CanadaGermany

Luxembourg

WPL AUCNA LNKMP US6505 TTTNBP RU

SOL SJREP SMCVE CNRWE GR

PFC Energy 50

For over 25 years, PFC Energy has provided analytical

services and subscription products to the world’s

leading oil, gas and service companies, governments

and the financial sector.

Our expertise includes:

• Market and geopolitical analysis

• Competitive analysis and benchmarking

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• Strategies for changing competitive environments

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www.pfcenergy.com [email protected]

Top 15 Alternative Technologies

2012 Rank 2011 Rank Company NameMarket Cap ($US billion)

% Share Price Change (YoY) Est P/E Debt/Capital HQ Country Ticker/Exch Technology

1 4 Cosan 4.7 56% 31 35% Brazil CZZ US Biofuels

2 2 Acciona 4.3 -11% 85 63% Spain ANA SM Wind

3 1 GCL Energy 3.1 -28% 61 67% Hong Kong 3800 HK Alt. Electricity

4 5 First Solar 2.7 -12% N/A 13% US FSLR US Solar

5 3 Goldwind 2.1 -30% 483 43% China 002202 CH Wind

6 7 Abengoa 1.7 -27% 10 86% Spain ABG SM Alt. Electricity

7 6 Vestas 1.2 -48% N/A 44% Denmark VWS DC Wind

8 8 SMA Solar 0.9 -55% 5 13% Germany S92 GR Solar

9 13 Ormat Technologies 0.7 26% N/A 50% Israel ORA US Geothermal

10 9 SunPower 0.7 -12% N/A 42% US SPWR US Solar

11 14 Suzlon 0.6 4% N/A 73% India SUEL IN Wind

12 10 Gamesa 0.6 -43% N/A 42% Spain GAM SM Wind

13 15 Motech 0.4 -47% N/A 40% Taiwan 6244 TT Solar

14 11 GT Advanced Technologies 0.4 -59% 3 43% US GTAT US Solar

15 12 Meyer Burger 0.4 -53% N/A 16% Switzerland MBTN SW Solar

• Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers in $US• P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2012• Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet

Capturing Value from North American Price Differentials

The greatest gainers from North American price differentials were refiners with inland assets that could add significant value to discounted crudes: HollyFrontier (+105%), Marathon Petroleum (+84%), Tesoro (+83%) and Valero (+57%).

In E&P, EOG Resources attracted investors with its high oil to gas ratio, resulting in a 20% share price gain in 2012. Midstream/Infrastructure companies able to play these spreads posted the strongest performance: Sunoco Logistics

(+26%), Magellan Midstream (+23%) and Plains All American (+21%) captured additional value by controlling links between unconventional plays and coastal demand centers, while peers without such connections lost substantial value.

Data. Experience. Insight. Solutions.

50The Definitive Annual Ranking of the World’s Largest Listed Energy Firms

JANUARY 2013

PFC Energy 50 Combined Value Unchanged

• The combined market capitalization of the PFC Energy 50 was $3.5 trillion, a slight 0.8% decline from 12 months previously. Although market cap for the group as a whole has generally followed the price of crude, these indices disconnected during the 2008-10 financial crisis. In 2011-12 they converged again but at a “new normal” of generally lower company valuations.

• The most dramatic value increase of recent years has been posted by the Colombian traded NOC Ecopetrol, which gained the #6 position at $126.6 billion, posting a 44% rise in market cap for the year and 250% since joining the list in 2007 at $36.6 billion.

Mixed Bag for IOCs and NOCs

• Among IOCs, the strongest share price performance came from LUKOIL (+29%), Husky (+21%) and Eni (+17%). The loss of its assets in Argentina resulted in a 34% share price decline for Repsol in 2012. Other negative performance came from TNK-BP (-31%), Sasol (-10%) and Shell (-6%).

• The combined value of the top five NOCs on the PFC Energy 50 remained steady at $725 billion, following a 17% drop from 2010 to 2011. Unlike previous years when NOCs trended up or down together, 2012 performance was highly differentiated. Second to Ecopetrol’s 43% gain in share price, Rosneft posted a 25% share price increase following a year of bold strategic moves and CNOOC gained 24%.

Refining & Marketing is Back—Especially in North America

• The Top 15 Refining & Marketing companies posted a 40% average increase in market capitalization, led by North American players HollyFrontier (share price up 105%) and Tesoro (+83%). Well-positioned refiners are earning higher returns than during the mid 2000s “golden age” of refining.

North American Energy Reset Aids Volumes More than Value

• The unconventional oil and gas story in North America continues to impact company values in new and surprising ways. Differentials between coastal and inland crude prices widened in 2012 as a lack of infrastructure to move crude to global markets created discounts as wide as $30-50/bbl between more landlocked oil and WTI/Brent.

• While North American oil and gas production has posted impressive volume growth and attracted substantial investment, value creation has been more elusive. The Top 15 E&P list, which is dominated by companies with substantial North America portfolios, many with gas-heavy weighting, showed an average decline of 4% in share price as markets continued to punish weak gas prices.

• The Midstream/Infrastructure segment, a top performer in 2011, posted roughly flat performance in 2012. The average 23% gain of the top three performers (Sunoco Logistics, Magellan Midstream, Plains All American) was offset by the average 21% decline for the three weakest performers (Buckeye Partners, Williams Companies and Boardwalk Pipeline Partners). Geography played a key role, with companies linking to the Bakken Shale and Canadian oil sands outperforming competitors.

Spin-Offs Continue

• ConocoPhillips spun off its downstream business as Philipps 66 in 2012, following the trail blazed by Marathon in 2011. The resulting smaller and more focused companies are leaders in their segments, with ConocoPhillips holding pole position in the E&P segment and Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum both in the top five Refining & Marketing companies.

Alternative Technologies Still Weak

• With reduced subsidies for wind and solar power and highly competitive gas prices, alternative technologies have lost much of their investment appeal. The combined value of the Alternative Technologies PFC Energy Top 15 was $24 billion, a 22% decline from 2011 and 69% below the $78.7 billion seen in 2010.

www.pfcenergy50.com

Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates as of 12/31/2012

Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates as of 12/31/2012 • Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers in $US • Prices for thinly traded companies are as of year’s last trade • Changes in market capitalization may differ from changes in share price due to mergers, share repurchases and other factors

* BHP Billiton is ranked based on a value of 23% of the company’s total market capitalization, representing the contribution of its petroleum segment to total EBIT in the 12 months ended 6/30/2012.

** Phillips 66 was spun off from ConocoPhillips in 2012

No one industry sector stands out for one- and three-year market capitalization growth, although infrastructure companies continued their positive performance after a particularly strong three years. European utilities saw a pronounced retreat in

market capitalization, feeling the combined effect of sluggish European economies and European deregulation, the effects of which has eaten into many of these companies’ traditional business models. Of special note, Ecopetrol (+44% in the

last year alone, with +37% over the last three) benefited from continually favorable above-ground conditions in Colombia.

Changes in Market Capitalization Growth

1-YEAR GROWTH IN MARKET CAPITALIZATION

DRILLING & OILFIELD SERVICES

EQUIPMENT & EPC

GAS/UTILITIES

MIDSTREAM/INFRASTRUCTURE

NOVATEK

OccidentalCanadian

Natural

Enterprise

Centrica

E.ONRWE

GDF SUEZ

LUKOIL

Reliance

Repsol

TNK-BP

Enbridge

Kinder Morgan

Ecopetrol

Rosneft

Petrobras

-60% -20% 20% 40% 60%

Data source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates as of 12/31/12

% SHARE PRICE CHANGE (YOY) FOR NORTH AMERICAN PLAYERS

75% 100%50%-25%-50% 25%0%

GAS HEAVY PORTFOLIOS

LARGE, LINKED NETWORKS

REGIONAL NETWORKS

EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION

INFRASTRUCTURE

REFINING & MARKETING

BRENT-WTI

CLEARBROOK-WTI

DIFFERENTIALS VS. WTI

WESTERN CANADA-WTI

Circle size indicates market cap Data source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates

as of 12/31/12

2012 Rank

123456789

TOTALGazpromCNOOC

394.6264.5222.6211.6132.1126.6124.7121.9112.396.7

0%-7%-6%0%

-3%43%

-17%0%

-8%24%

USChina

NetherlandsUSUK

ColombiaBrazil

FranceRussiaChina

XOM US601857 CH

RDSA NACVX US

BP LNECOPETL CB

PETR4 BZFP FP

GAZP RU883 HK

11121314151617181920

9171113141016211820

SinopecRosneft

SchlumbergerEni

OccidentalLUKOIL

BGSuncor

96.593.492.088.179.370.462.156.356.050.4

-4%25%-1%17%-3%3%

-20%29%

-23%12%

ChinaRussia

USItaly

NorwayUSUS

RussiaUK

Canada

600028 CH ROSN RU

SLB USENI IM

STL NOCOP USOXY US

LKOH RUBG LNSU CN

21222324252627282930

23193225242228294031

RelianceGDF SUEZ

ONGCE.ON

Enbridge NOVATEK

50.349.645.345.141.937.337.136.534.734.6

18%-26%10%6%1%

-14%-5%-4%14%-7%

R&MGas/Utilities

E&PIntegrated IOC

IndiaFrance

AustraliaUS

IndiaGermany

ONGC INEOAN GR

APC USIMO CNENB CN

NVTK RM

31323334353637383940

4234392633

ApacheDominion

33.433.232.732.231.631.630.729.829.229.1

20%-1%12%

-24%-15%-4%-3%21%

E&PE&P

CanadaUSUSUS

RussiaCanada

USUSUS

Canada

SNGS RMCNQ CNAPA US

D USNOV USHSE CN

41424344454647484950

4347413627353044

WoodsideCentrica

TNK-BPSasol

RepsolCenovus

RWETenaris

29.028.228.228.227.927.725.425.325.324.7

13%22%-8%-4%

-31%-10%-34%

0%17%11%

E&PGas/Utilities

Equipment & EPC

AustraliaUKUS

TaiwanRussia

South AfricaSpain

CanadaGermany

Luxembourg

PFC Energy 50

JANUARY 2013

Spin-Offs Continue

www.pfcenergy50.com

EQUIPMENT & EPC

GAS/UTILITIES

NOVATEK

OccidentalCanadian

Natural

Enterprise

Centrica

E.ONRWE

GDF SUEZ

LUKOIL

Reliance

Repsol

TNK-BP

Enbridge

Kinder Morgan

Ecopetrol

Rosneft

Petrobras

-60% -20% 20% 40% 60%

75% 100%50%-25%-50% 25%0%

REGIONAL NETWORKS

INFRASTRUCTURE

BRENT-WTI

CLEARBROOK-WTI

WESTERN CANADA-WTI

as of 12/31/12

2012 Rank

123456789

TOTALGazpromCNOOC

394.6264.5222.6211.6132.1126.6124.7121.9112.396.7

0%-7%-6%0%

-3%43%

-17%0%

-8%24%

USChina

NetherlandsUSUK

ColombiaBrazil

FranceRussiaChina

XOM US601857 CH

RDSA NACVX US

BP LNECOPETL CB

PETR4 BZFP FP

GAZP RU883 HK

11121314151617181920

9171113141016211820

SinopecRosneft

SchlumbergerEni

OccidentalLUKOIL

BGSuncor

96.593.492.088.179.370.462.156.356.050.4

-4%25%-1%17%-3%3%

-20%29%

-23%12%

ChinaRussia

USItaly

NorwayUSUS

RussiaUK

Canada

600028 CH ROSN RU

SLB USENI IM

STL NOCOP USOXY US

LKOH RUBG LNSU CN

21222324252627282930

23193225242228294031

RelianceGDF SUEZ

ONGCE.ON

Enbridge NOVATEK

50.349.645.345.141.937.337.136.534.734.6

18%-26%10%6%1%

-14%-5%-4%14%-7%

R&MGas/Utilities

E&PIntegrated IOC

IndiaFrance

AustraliaUS

IndiaGermany

ONGC INEOAN GR

APC USIMO CNENB CN

NVTK RM

31323334353637383940

4234392633

ApacheDominion

33.433.232.732.231.631.630.729.829.229.1

20%-1%12%

-24%-15%-4%-3%21%

E&PE&P

CanadaUSUSUS

RussiaCanada

USUSUS

Canada

SNGS RMCNQ CNAPA US

D USNOV USHSE CN

41424344454647484950

4347413627353044

WoodsideCentrica

TNK-BPSasol

RepsolCenovus

RWETenaris

29.028.228.228.227.927.725.425.325.324.7

13%22%-8%-4%

-31%-10%-34%

0%17%11%

E&PGas/Utilities

Equipment & EPC

AustraliaUKUS

TaiwanRussia

South AfricaSpain

CanadaGermany

Luxembourg

PFC Energy 50

JANUARY 2013

Spin-Offs Continue

www.pfcenergy50.com

EQUIPMENT & EPC

GAS/UTILITIES

NOVATEK

OccidentalCanadian

Natural

Enterprise

Centrica

E.ONRWE

GDF SUEZ

LUKOIL

Reliance

Repsol

TNK-BP

Enbridge

Kinder Morgan

Ecopetrol

Rosneft

Petrobras

-60% -20% 20% 40% 60%

75% 100%50%-25%-50% 25%0%

REGIONAL NETWORKS

INFRASTRUCTURE

BRENT-WTI

CLEARBROOK-WTI

WESTERN CANADA-WTI

as of 12/31/12

Segment Share Price Leaders

Top 15 Exploration & Production

2012 Rank

% Share Price Change (YoY) Est P/E Debt/Capital HQ Country Ticker/Exch

1 - ConocoPhillips 70.4 3% 9 31% US COP US

2 1 Occidental 62.1 -20% 11 16% US OXY US

3 5 BHP Billiton 45.3 10% 12 30% Australia BHP AU

4 3 Anadarko 37.1 -5% 18 40% US APC US

5 4 NOVATEK 34.6 -7% 8 23% Russia NVTK RM

6 7 EOG Resources 32.7 20% 22 31% US EOG US

7 2 Canadian Natural 31.6 -24% 14 26% Canada CNQ CN

8 6 Apache 30.7 -15% 8 27% US APA US

9 8 Woodside 29.0 13% 19 28% Australia WPL AU

10 - Cenovus 25.3 0% 16 33% Canada CVE CN

11 12 Marathon Oil 21.7 2% 11 27% US MRO US

12 9 Devon 21.1 -18% 13 34% US DVN US

13 11 INPEX 19.4 -16% 8 12% Japan 1605 JP

14 13 Tullow 18.6 -6% 21 17% UK TLW LN

15 14 Noble Energy 18.1 5% 23 34% US NBL US

Top 15 Ref ining & Marketing

2012 Rank

1 1 Reliance 50.3 18% 13 35% India RIL IN

2 - Phillips 66* 33.2 N/A N/A 28% US PSX US

3 2 Formosa Petrochemicals 28.2 -4% 88 51% Taiwan 6505 TT

4 3 Marathon Petroleum 21.4 84% 9 23% US MPC US

5 4 Valero 18.9 57% 9 29% US VLO US

6 6 SK Energy 15.1 33% 7 10% Korea 096770 KS

7 5 Indian Oil 12.0 3% 16 56% India IOCL IN

8 7 S-OIL 11.0 13% 9 42% Korea 010950 KS

9 - HollyFrontier 9.5 105% 6 17% US HFC US

10 9 Tupras 7.2 34% 10 47% Turkey TUPRS TI

11 10 Petrom 7.2 47% N/A 30% Romania SNP RO

12 12 PKN Orlen 6.9 63% 7 25% Poland PKN PW

13 - Tesoro 6.2 83% 10 25% US TSO US

14 8 Tonengen Sekiyu 4.9 -21% 3 63% Japan 5012 JP

15 13 Bharat Petroleum 4.7 43% 33 64% India BPCL IN

Top 15 Oilf ield & Drilling Services

1 1 Schlumberger 92.0 -1% 16 25% US SLB US

2 2 Halliburton 32.2 -1% 10 24% US HAL US

3 3 Baker Hughes 18.0 -18% 11 23% US BHI US

4 4 Seadrill 17.1 10% 17 63% Norway SDRL NO

5 5 Transocean 16.1 15% N/A 48% Switzerland RIG US

6 7 Ensco 13.8 23% 12 29% UK ESV US

7 8 COSL 11.0 32% 13 48% China 2883 HK

8 9 Diamond Offshore 9.4 27% 13 25% US DO US

9 10 Noble 8.8 14% 17 36% Switzerland NE US

10 6 Weatherford 8.6 -28% 17 50% Switzerland WFT US

11 11 H&P 5.9 -7% 11 6% US HP US

12 - CGGVeritas 5.3 33% 57 33% France GA FP

13 12 Core Laboratories 5.1 -5% 25 47% Netherlands CLB US

14 13 Nabors 4.2 -19% 7 44% Bermuda NBR US

15 - Rowan 3.9 0% 18 24% US RDC US

• Company names in bold blue indicate PFC Energy 50 ranking• Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers in $US• P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2012• Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet

Top 15 Equipment, Engineering & Construction

1 1 National Oilwell Varco 29.2 -3% 12 7% US NOV US

2 2 Tenaris 24.7 11% N/A 15% Luxembourg TS US

3 3 Saipem 17.1 -9% 13 45% Italy SPM IM

4 4 Keppel 16.2 26% 9 34% Singapore KEP SP

5 6 Cameron 13.9 10% 19 28% US CAM US

6 7 Technip 13.0 21% 19 35% France TEC FP

7 5 FMC Technologies 10.2 -22% 25 47% US FTI US

8 8 Fluor 9.8 14% 17 13% US FLR US

9 9 Petrofac 9.1 19% 15 5% UK PFC LN

10 11 Subsea 7 8.3 33% 11 13% UK SUBC NO

11 14 Sembcorp 7.7 39% 12 29% Singapore SCI SP

12 12 WorleyParsons 5.9 -6% 16 27% Australia WOR AU

13 - Oceaneering 5.8 14% 22 6% US OII US

14 15 Jacobs 5.5 3% 15 12% US JEC US

15 - AMEC 4.9 17% 14 13% UK AMEC LN

1 1 Enterprise 45.1 6% 17 55% US NOV US

2 3 Enbridge 34.7 14% 42 59% Canada TS US

3 2 TransCanada 33.4 7% 24 54% Canada SPM IM

4 4 Kinder Morgan 28.2 -8% 51 64% US KEP SP

5 6 Williams Companies 17.3 -21% 16 48% US FTI US

6 7 Snam 15.7 5% 16 69% IT SRG IM

7 9 Plains All American 15.1 21% 16 49% US PAA US

8 8 Oneok 11.9 -8% 15 52% US OKS UN

9 10 Energy Transfer Partners 10.9 -7% 18 54% US ETP US

10 11 Magellan Midstream 9.8 23% 24 59% US MMP US

11 15 MarkWest Energy Partners 6.4 -9% 47 49% US MWE US

12 14 Boardwalk Pipeline Partners 5.7 -11% 18 47% US BWP US

13 12 OGE Energy 5.6 -2% 16 52% US OGE US

14 - Sunoco Logistics 5.2 26% 12 54% US SXL US

15 13 Buckeye Partners 4.4 -30% 17 54% US BPL US

Top 15 Midstream/Infrastructure

• Company names in bold blue indicate PFC Energy 50 ranking• Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers in $US• P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2012 • Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet

Segment leaders saw higher share price growth in 2012 than the leaders of 2011—and the top three performers in each segment were all in positive territory. Further, all of the top performers posted relatively similar rises, reflecting general confidence in the market instead of specific companies outperforming peers.

Refining & Marketing companies did particularly well, with HollyFrontier (+105%), Marathon Petroleum (+84%) and Tesoro (+83%) leading the group. All of the top performing integrated IOCs and NOCs did well in 2012, with performance of the third highest company—Eni, which saw growth of 17%—equal to the top performer of 2011.

Top 15 Gas/Utilities

1 1 GDF SUEZ 49.6 -26% 10 47% France GSZ FP

2 2 E.ON 37.3 -14% N/A 44% Germany EOAN GR

3 - Dominion 29.8 -4% 18 63% US D US

4 3 Centrica 28.2 22% 18 49% UK CNA LN

5 4 RWE 25.3 17% 8 55% Germany RWE GR

6 5 Hong Kong & China Gas 23.7 31% 26 39% Hong Kong 3 HK

7 - KEPCO 18.3 29% N/A 41% Korea 015760 KS

8 6 Gas Natural Fenosa 17.9 5% 10 59% Spain GAS SM

9 8 Sempra 17.2 28% 16 54% US SRE US

10 7 Origin 13.2 -11% 13 29% Australia ORG AU

11 10 PETRONAS Gas 12.6 33% 28 13% Malaysia PTG MK

12 9 Tokyo Gas 11.8 0% 11 11% Japan 9531 JP

13 12 PGN 11.6 37% 14 33% Indonesia PGAS IJ

14 - EnBW 11.0 -21% 30 48% Germany EBK GR

15 - Chubu Electric 10.1 -28% N/A 68% Japan 9502 JP

Note: BHP Billiton is ranked based on a value of 23% of the company’s total market capitalization, representing the contribution of its petroleum segment to total EBIT in the 12 months ended 6/30/2012.

Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates as of 12/31/2012 Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates as of 12/31/2012

* Phillips 66 was spun off from ConocoPhillips in 2012

Some Barrels are Better than Others

The market valuation of Colombian traded NOC Ecopetrol has risen at an impressive rate since its IPO in 2007. From #33 on the PFC Energy 50 list five years ago with a market capitalization of $36.6 billion, the company has grown at a 28% compound growth rate to a valuation of $126.6

billion, putting it in #6 position this year. The charts above compare the valuations of the top 10 PFC Energy 50 companies with their proved reserves and oil equivalent production levels, providing a lesson in which barrels markets currently like better than others.

Sources: Bloomberg, S&P, PFC Energy estimates as of 12/31/2012

% SHARE PRICE CHANGE (YOY)

40%30%0% 20%10%

LUKOIL

Ecopetrol

Rosneft

INTEGRATED IOCS

INTEGRATED NOCS

PFC ENERGY TOP 10 (2012):MARKET CAP AND OPERATING COMPARISON

ECOPETROL: 2009-2012 HISTORIC VALUATION

PetroC

Dutch S

Chevro

Petrob

mkt cap ($bn)

PRODUCTION AT START OF YEAR (RIGHT) -$ / MBOE/DMARKET CAP AT YEAR END

RESERVES AT START OF YEAR (RIGHT) -$ / BOE

2009 2010 2011 2012

mkt cap ($bn)$/mboe/d

$/boe$/mboe/d

Woodside

BHP Billiton

PETRONAS Gas

Hong Kong & China Gas

CGGVeritas

Diamond Offshore

Sembcorp

Subsea 7

Keppel Corp

Sunoco Logistics

Magellan Midstream

Plains All American

HollyFrontier

Marathon Petroleum

Tesoro

Ormat Technologies

Suzlon

40% 60% 80% 100% 120%20%0%

83%63%

GAS/UTILITIES

OILFIELD & DRILLING SERVICES

EQUIPMENT, ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION

ALTERNATE TECHNOLOGIES

2012 Rank

8 6 Apache 30.7 -15% 8 27% US APA US

12 9 Devon 21.1 -18% 13 34% US DVN US

13 11 INPEX 19.4 -16% 8 12% Japan 1605 JP

14 13 Tullow 18.6 -6% 21 17% UK TLW LN

2012 Rank

5 4 Valero 18.9 57% 9 29% US VLO US

8 7 S-OIL 11.0 13% 9 42% Korea 010950 KS

13 - Tesoro 6.2 83% 10 25% US TSO US

6 7 Ensco 13.8 23% 12 29% UK ESV US

7 8 COSL 11.0 32% 13 48% China 2883 HK

11 11 H&P 5.9 -7% 11 6% US HP US

15 - Rowan 3.9 0% 18 24% US RDC US

5 6 Cameron 13.9 10% 19 28% US CAM US

8 8 Fluor 9.8 14% 17 13% US FLR US

10 11 Subsea 7 8.3 33% 11 13% UK SUBC NO

14 15 Jacobs 5.5 3% 15 12% US JEC US

15 - AMEC 4.9 17% 14 13% UK AMEC LN

6 7 Snam 15.7 5% 16 69% IT SRG IM

8 8 Oneok 11.9 -8% 15 52% US OKS UN

3 - Dominion 29.8 -4% 18 63% US D US

7 - KEPCO 18.3 29% N/A 41% Korea 015760 KS

9 8 Sempra 17.2 28% 16 54% US SRE US

40%30%0% 20%10%

LUKOIL

Ecopetrol

Rosneft

INTEGRATED IOCS

INTEGRATED NOCS

PetroC

Dutch S

Chevro

Petrob

mkt cap ($bn)

2009 2010 2011 2012

$/boe$/mboe/d

Woodside

BHP Billiton

PETRONAS Gas

CGGVeritas

Diamond Offshore

Sembcorp

Subsea 7

Keppel Corp

Sunoco Logistics

Magellan Midstream

Plains All American

HollyFrontier

Marathon Petroleum

Tesoro

Ormat Technologies

Suzlon

40% 60% 80% 100% 120%20%0%

83%63%

GAS/UTILITIES

2012 Rank

8 6 Apache 30.7 -15% 8 27% US APA US

12 9 Devon 21.1 -18% 13 34% US DVN US

13 11 INPEX 19.4 -16% 8 12% Japan 1605 JP

14 13 Tullow 18.6 -6% 21 17% UK TLW LN

2012 Rank

5 4 Valero 18.9 57% 9 29% US VLO US

8 7 S-OIL 11.0 13% 9 42% Korea 010950 KS

13 - Tesoro 6.2 83% 10 25% US TSO US

6 7 Ensco 13.8 23% 12 29% UK ESV US

7 8 COSL 11.0 32% 13 48% China 2883 HK

11 11 H&P 5.9 -7% 11 6% US HP US

15 - Rowan 3.9 0% 18 24% US RDC US

5 6 Cameron 13.9 10% 19 28% US CAM US

8 8 Fluor 9.8 14% 17 13% US FLR US

10 11 Subsea 7 8.3 33% 11 13% UK SUBC NO

14 15 Jacobs 5.5 3% 15 12% US JEC US

15 - AMEC 4.9 17% 14 13% UK AMEC LN

6 7 Snam 15.7 5% 16 69% IT SRG IM

8 8 Oneok 11.9 -8% 15 52% US OKS UN

3 - Dominion 29.8 -4% 18 63% US D US

7 - KEPCO 18.3 29% N/A 41% Korea 015760 KS

9 8 Sempra 17.2 28% 16 54% US SRE US

40%30%0% 20%10%

LUKOIL

Ecopetrol

Rosneft

INTEGRATED IOCS

INTEGRATED NOCS

PetroC

Dutch S

Chevro

Petrob

mkt cap ($bn)

2009 2010 2011 2012

$/boe$/mboe/d

Woodside

BHP Billiton

PETRONAS Gas

CGGVeritas

Diamond Offshore

Sembcorp

Subsea 7

Keppel Corp

Sunoco Logistics

Magellan Midstream

Plains All American

HollyFrontier

Marathon Petroleum

Tesoro

Ormat Technologies

Suzlon

40% 60% 80% 100% 120%20%0%

83%63%

GAS/UTILITIES

2012 Rank

8 6 Apache 30.7 -15% 8 27% US APA US

12 9 Devon 21.1 -18% 13 34% US DVN US

13 11 INPEX 19.4 -16% 8 12% Japan 1605 JP

14 13 Tullow 18.6 -6% 21 17% UK TLW LN

2012 Rank

5 4 Valero 18.9 57% 9 29% US VLO US

8 7 S-OIL 11.0 13% 9 42% Korea 010950 KS

13 - Tesoro 6.2 83% 10 25% US TSO US

6 7 Ensco 13.8 23% 12 29% UK ESV US

7 8 COSL 11.0 32% 13 48% China 2883 HK

11 11 H&P 5.9 -7% 11 6% US HP US

15 - Rowan 3.9 0% 18 24% US RDC US

5 6 Cameron 13.9 10% 19 28% US CAM US

8 8 Fluor 9.8 14% 17 13% US FLR US

10 11 Subsea 7 8.3 33% 11 13% UK SUBC NO

14 15 Jacobs 5.5 3% 15 12% US JEC US

15 - AMEC 4.9 17% 14 13% UK AMEC LN

6 7 Snam 15.7 5% 16 69% IT SRG IM

8 8 Oneok 11.9 -8% 15 52% US OKS UN

3 - Dominion 29.8 -4% 18 63% US D US

7 - KEPCO 18.3 29% N/A 41% Korea 015760 KS

9 8 Sempra 17.2 28% 16 54% US SRE US

40%30%0% 20%10%

LUKOIL

Ecopetrol

Rosneft

INTEGRATED IOCS

INTEGRATED NOCS

PetroC

Dutch S

Chevro

Petrob

mkt cap ($bn)

2009 2010 2011 2012

$/boe$/mboe/d

Woodside

BHP Billiton

PETRONAS Gas

CGGVeritas

Diamond Offshore

Sembcorp

Subsea 7

Keppel Corp

Sunoco Logistics

Magellan Midstream

Plains All American

HollyFrontier

Marathon Petroleum

Tesoro

Ormat Technologies

Suzlon

40% 60% 80% 100% 120%20%0%

83%63%

GAS/UTILITIES

2012 Rank

123456789

TOTALGazpromCNOOC

394.6264.5222.6211.6132.1126.6124.7121.9112.396.7

0%-7%-6%0%

-3%43%

-17%0%

-8%24%

USChina

NetherlandsUSUK

ColombiaBrazil

FranceRussiaChina

XOM US601857 CH

RDSA NACVX US

BP LNECOPETL CB

PETR4 BZFP FP

GAZP RU883 HK

11121314151617181920

9171113141016211820

SinopecRosneft

SchlumbergerEni

OccidentalLUKOIL

BGSuncor

96.593.492.088.179.370.462.156.356.050.4

-4%25%-1%17%-3%3%

-20%29%

-23%12%

ChinaRussia

USItaly

NorwayUSUS

RussiaUK

Canada

600028 CH ROSN RU

SLB USENI IM

STL NOCOP USOXY US

LKOH RUBG LNSU CN

21222324252627282930

23193225242228294031

RelianceGDF SUEZ

ONGCE.ON

Enbridge NOVATEK

50.349.645.345.141.937.337.136.534.734.6

18%-26%10%6%1%

-14%-5%-4%14%-7%

R&MGas/Utilities

E&PIntegrated IOC

IndiaFrance

AustraliaUS

IndiaGermany

ONGC INEOAN GR

APC USIMO CNENB CN

NVTK RM

31323334353637383940

4234392633

ApacheDominion

33.433.232.732.231.631.630.729.829.229.1

20%-1%12%

-24%-15%-4%-3%21%

E&PE&P

CanadaUSUSUS

RussiaCanada

USUSUS

Canada

SNGS RMCNQ CNAPA US

D USNOV USHSE CN

41424344454647484950

4347413627353044

WoodsideCentrica

TNK-BPSasol

RepsolCenovus

RWETenaris

29.028.228.228.227.927.725.425.325.324.7

13%22%-8%-4%

-31%-10%-34%

0%17%11%

E&PGas/Utilities

Equipment & EPC

AustraliaUKUS

TaiwanRussia

South AfricaSpain

CanadaGermany

Luxembourg

PFC Energy 50

JANUARY 2013

Spin-Offs Continue

www.pfcenergy50.com

EQUIPMENT & EPC

GAS/UTILITIES

NOVATEK

OccidentalCanadian

Natural

Enterprise

Centrica

E.ONRWE

GDF SUEZ

LUKOIL

Reliance

Repsol

TNK-BP

Enbridge

Kinder Morgan

Ecopetrol

Rosneft

Petrobras

-60% -20% 20% 40% 60%

75% 100%50%-25%-50% 25%0%

REGIONAL NETWORKS

INFRASTRUCTURE

BRENT-WTI

CLEARBROOK-WTI

WESTERN CANADA-WTI

as of 12/31/12

pfc energy 50 changes in market capitalization growth...

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