Ph. D. Completion and Attrition:

Baseline Program Data

Robert SowellCGS Annual Meeting

December 7, 2007

Ph.D. Completion Project Goals:

• To study doctoral student completion and attrition patterns at a specifically selected set of Research and Project Partners institutions.

• To give deans context to lead conversations about what attrition and completion patterns actually are at their universities, and what practices could be implemented to improve these patterns.

• To empower graduate deans to develop interventions that are tailored to disciplines, departments, and programs at their universities.

Ph.D. Completion Project Funding provided by Pfizer Inc and the

Ford Foundation 29 Research Partner institutions received

grants 25 Project Partner institutions are

currently participating in various project aspects (unfunded)

Institutions participate in one or both project phases: • Phase I (2004-2007)• Phase II (2007-2010)

Data Requirements

Completion and attrition data by program

Aggregate demographic completion data by broad field

Factor assessments for each institution and program

Student Exit Surveys

Categories of Potential Interventions

Selection/Matching Mentoring and Advising Financial Support and Structure Program Environments Research Experiences Curricular and Administrative

Processes and Procedures

New CGS Publication

“Ph.D. Completion and Attrition: Analysis of Baseline Program Data from the Ph.D. Completion Project”

Number of Programs and Entering Students in Baseline

Data# of

Programs

# of EnteringStudents

Engineering 54 9,496

Life Sciences 66 6,925

Math & Physical Sciences

78 15,262

Social Sciences 65 9,671

Humanities 67 7,759

All Fields Total 330 49,113

Cohort Definitions for Baseline Data Analysis

A-Cohorts (10-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1992-93; 1993-94;

1994-95• 12,135 students (313 programs)

B-Cohorts (7-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1995-96; 1996-97;

1997-98• 11,697 students (320 programs)

C-Cohorts (4-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1998-99; 1999-2000;

2000-01• 12,125 students (323 programs)

Overall Ten-Year Completion Rates

4.5

10.5

22.5

36.1

45.5

50.9

54.656.6

020

4060

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

om

ple

tio

n R

ate

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Overall Ten-Year Attrition Rates

6.6

13.8

19.9

23.6

25.4

2728.4

29.530.2 30.6

010

2030

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates by Broad Field

010

2030

4050

6070

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Co

mp

leti

on

Ra

te

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Engineering Life Sciences

Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences

Humanities

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

56.8

53.7

48.2

40.9

29.3

63.662.9

55.954.7

49.3

Ten-year Attrition Rates by Broad Field

510

1520

2530

3540

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Engineering Life Sciences

Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences

Humanities

NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

020

4060

8010

0C

um

ula

tive

Rat

es %

STEM Fields Social Sciences & Humanities

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Note: 10-Year Cohorts include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Continuing Completion Attrition

By Year 10, Percentage of Continuing Students Plateaus in SEM, but Not SSH Fields

Ten-Year Completion Rates for Mathematics

& Physical Science Disciplines0

1020

3040

5060

70C

um

ula

tive

Co

mp

leti

on

Rat

e

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year

Chemistry Computer and Information Sciences

Mathematics Physics and Astronomy

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Mathematics

& Physical Science Disciplines5

1015

2025

3035

4045

50C

um

ula

tive

Att

riti

on

Rat

e

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Chemistry Computer and Information Sciences

Mathematics Physics and Astronomy

NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates by Institution Type

010

2030

4050

60C

um

ula

tive

Co

mp

leti

on

Rat

e

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Private Public

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates by Cohort Size

010

2030

4050

60C

um

ula

tive

Co

mp

leti

on

Rat

e

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Small Medium

Large

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Small: 1-7Medium: 8-14Large: 15+

Seven-Year Completion Rates Over Time:

A- and B- Cohorts, SEM vs. SSH Fields

35.7

35.8

50.6

51.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Cumulative Completion Rate

SSH Fields

SEM Fields

NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

A-cohorts B-cohorts

Four-Year (Early) Attrition Rates Over Time:

A-, B- and C-Cohorts

20.2

24.2

23.6

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Attrition Rate

NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

A B

C

Four-Year Attrition Rates Over Time:

A-, B- and C-Cohorts, SEM vs. SSH

20

16.6

20.2

19.3

22.0

26.6

26.5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Attrition Rate

SSH Fields

SEM Fields

NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

A B

C

Four-Year Continuing Rates Over Time:

A-, B- and C-Cohorts

21

72.7 7.1 20.2

67.5 8.3 24.2

65.9 10.5 23.6

0 20 40 60 80 100Rates

C

B

A

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Continuing Completion Attrition

Trend of Decreasing Attrition and Increasing Continuing Student Rates at

Four Years

22

75 6.5 18.5

73 6.8 20.2

70.1 8.1 21.9

68.5 8.6 22.9

66.6 8.1 25.2

67.3 8.2 24.4

66.5 8.8 24.6

67.5 9 23.5

63.8 13.4 22.8

0 20 40 60 80 100Rates

2000-01

1999-2000

1998-99

1997-98

1996-97

1995-96

1994-95

1993-94

1992-93

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Continuing Completion Attrition

Future Questions to be Addressed in the Ph.D.

Completion Project How do completion patterns vary by ethnicity, gender and citizenship?

Why do students say they complete (or not)? What are the perceptions about graduate school of completers and non-completers?

What is the impact of the six categories of interventions? How does efficacy vary across broad field and for which populations?

Can we project ultimate completion and time to degree from our completion and attrition data?

Future Ph.D. Completion Project Publications

Baseline demographic data (publication expected March 2008)

Student exit surveys (publication expected late fall 2008)

Promising practices, policies and activities

Publications based on 2007 and 2009 data submissions (2008-2010)

Final “Best Practices” report (2010)