REVERSE ENGINEERING OF LOCAL & INTERNATIONAL SURVEYS ON CORRUPTION IN THE PHILIPPINESA Project funded under the Transparent Accountable Governance (TAG) Project of The Asia Foundation with support from the United States Agency for International Development

April to June, 2006

BackgroundSeveral studies and surveys showing the Philippines as one of the most corrupt countries have been many times over quoted in media. These reports have painted the image of a graft-ridden country and a government seemingly powerless over corruptionThe most prominent of these agencies which regularly conducts studies on corruption in the Philippines are: Social Weather Stations, Inc.Pulse Asia, Inc.Ibon Foundation, Inc.Makati Business ClubPolitical Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) Ltd.Transparency International (TI)

RationaleThere is a need to review current studies and surveys being conducted measuring corruption in the Philippines. It would be important to know what their methodologies are, who their key respondents are, how they gather the data and how they analyze their data sets. It would be pertinent to mine the data generated by these studies and surveys. The information culled will aid both government and non-government agencies in zeroing in its efforts to address corruption on segments of the population most sensitive to this issue. It will give better directions as to where concentrated efforts to curb corruption are vital. It will pro-actively identify factors affecting perceptions of corruption and facets of corruption in the country and serve as a beacon to anti-corruption efforts.

Methods UsedGathering of materials, reports, raw data (both soft and hard copies if made accessible) from these respective institutions:Social Weather Stations (SWS)Pulse Asia Inc.IBON Foundation, Inc.Makati Business Club (MBC)Political Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) Transparency International (TI)

Methods Used (continued)Data gathering on whats available on the internet. The following websites were sources of many materials:www.sws.org.ph/www.pulseasia.com.ph/www.ibon.org/www.mbc.com.ph/www.asiarisk.com/ww1.transparency.org/www.transparency.ph/

Methods Used (continued)In-depth interviews with the following key informants:Mr. Robert Broadfoot, PERC Managing DirectorJudge Dolores Espanol, Transparency Intl RP Chapter Mr. Antonio Tujan Jr., Ibon Foundation, Inc. Ms. Rosario Bella Guzman, Ibon Foundation, Inc. Executive Director Mr. Edward Gacusana, MBC Sr. Research Associate & CAC Proj. CoordinatorMr. Michael Mundo, MBC Sr. Research Associate & Chief EconomistMs. Linda Luz Guerrero, SWS VP & Chief Operating OfficerMr. Jay Sandoval, SWS Director of Sampling, Processing & Data Archiving GroupMs. Germie Caron, SWS Field SpecialistMr. Jojo Carlom, Pulse Asia Statistics SupervisorMs. Zon Langrio, TNS-Trends Field Director Mr. Angel Almojuela, Asia Research Organization (ARO) President

Methods Used (continued)Review of written reportsSWS Survey of EnterprisesPulse Asia Ulat ng Bayan visualsPERC reportsTransparency International reportsFurther statistical analysis of raw data made available by:SWS and Pulse Asia

CaveatIn the course of talking with key informants from these various research institutions, some have expressed plans to further modify and make improvements in their methodologiesSince the review of the surveys included in the study was from April to June 2006, any changes and improvements made by the various research institutions in their methods of data gathering data processing and data analysis after this period cannot be reflected hereThe study does not intend to conclude which survey is more superior than others; rather it intends to give illumination on how these surveys are done and how the survey data can help in further advancing means of curbing corruption

SURVEYS ON CORRUPTION IN THE PHILIPPINES WITH VOTING-AGE ADULTS AS RESPONDENTS

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Methods

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Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Data Gathered

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Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Statistical Tools Used

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Highlights of Findings

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Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Public Dissemination

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Comments on SWS Methods Allocation for non-quota provinces in Balance Luzon & Visayas should be reconsidered because this can slightly skew the sample since sampling done is not at the regional levelUrban area coverage using landmarks as starting points should be reviewed because it may tend to concentrate samples in urban centersSWS Urban coverage:Starting points are the ff: Municipal or brgy hall Public elem. school Brgy. Capt.s house Catholic church or chapel A separate group of Spot checkers (and not the Field Anchors) should be assigned to do quality control checks

LuzonVisayasMindanaoReg 11Reg 62Reg 91CAR/Reg21Reg 71Reg 101Reg 32Reg 81Caraga1Reg 43Non-quota1Reg 111Reg 51Reg 121Non-quota2ARMM1PROVINCES1056

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Comments on Pulse Asia MethodsIt may help to try and acquire the latest precinct maps of urban areas since 1990 COMELEC maps are still being usedReconsider random selection of barangays since populations may now greatly vary among barangays in a municipalityMonitoring of substitution rates may be necessary

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Comments on IBON Survey Methods There is a great need to be cautious of results from surveys IBON conducts because of the following: Province selection does not consider population size No uniform instructions on how to select sample households Lack of a systematic means to select respondents in a household Little quality control mechanisms Having volunteers as interviewers may be disadvantageous to quality accomplishment of questionnaires Individual personal translations in the vernacular languages by interviewers can lead to biases No substitution or replacement rules Tendency to be a haphazard survey of housewives (not adults)

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Voting-Age Adults: Comments on TI Surveys conducted by ARO Sample dispersion tends to be limited because of: restricted number of provinces, cities/municipalities, barangays covered shorter intervals applied between households when selecting them greater number of households are included in a specific sample area

Sample bias is for urban areas given that population sizes here are bigger and thus have a greater probability of being included.

Generalizations on the validity of the surveys SWS, Pulse Asia and ARO surveys can be considered scientific, valid measures of corruption with the following caveats: SWS results in urban areas would tend to be affected given their area coverage method here Pulse Asia results can be affected by high substitution rates ARO results should only be interpreted at the national level and its results may tend to reflect urban sentiments

IBON surveys cannot be claimed to represent opinions of Filipino adults

Insights from Data Results Statistical runs from available raw data indicate the ff: Trust in institutions is critical to managing public perceptions on anti-corruption efforts Media reports on corruption and media access have significant impacts on perceptions Younger adults are more susceptible to negative perceptions on corruption The upper and middle class tend to be most affected and most pessimistic about ability to resolve corruption Surveys by and large do not have an exhaustive framework for critically looking into all possible predictors of opinions on government anti-corruption efforts Survey items usually included are dependent on clients or sponsors (or even the institutions) priority needs for monitoring and are often restricted because of limited funding sources

SURVEYS ON CORRUPTION IN THE PHILIPPINES WITH BUSINESS LEADERS AS RESPONDENTS

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or ExpatriatesIndependent Institutes: TI CPI Sources for RP data

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Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or ExpatriatesIndependent Institutes: TI CPI Sources for RP data (continued)

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Methods

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Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Statistical Tools Used

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Highlights of Findings

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Highlights of Findings

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Highlights of Findings

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Public Dissemination

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Comments on SWS Methods Simple random sampling instead of a panel survey every round should be considered Should consider the use of weights when aggregating responses of the different study areas May want to pursue the use of the sealed-envelope technique in interviewing especially for sensitive issues on corruption

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Comments on MBC Methods May want to improve method of collecting data; there is a need to ensure that those who answer the forms are the MBC members and are not accomplished by secretaries or assistants Although response rates are decent, there is a need to ensure that profile of sample reflects actual demographics of MBC members; Those who did not respond may be significantly different from those who responded Should consider a more advanced method of tabulating responses to improve quality control Should consider archiving their data Can possibly make generalizations about MBC members opinions but not necessarily all businessmen

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Comments on PERC Methods Demographics like nationality, sector, industry, media access and sources of information or basis for opinions should also be monitored. Items like incidences of actual bribery experience or first-hand stories can also be included. Reports should be qualified as opinions of regional managers who are mostly based in HK and Singapore and/or Philippine expatriates Although response rates are decent, there is a need to ensure that profile of sample reflects actual demographics of regional managers and Philippine expatriates Reports tend to mix analysts expert opinion with data culled from surveys

Surveys on Corruption conducted among Businessmen or Expatriates: Comments on TI-Phil. Methods Since independent institutions are the sources of the data, the differences in methods & target respondents may have its effects But these effects seem to be negligible when scores were standardized, averaged and subjected to beta transformations as well as correlations to create a more reliable index, thus validating the reliability of the results It would be great if they could include predictors of perceptions or variables measuring impact of media attention and sources of information in their analysis of the results Varying cultural contexts across countries may have its effects on how incidences of corruption are reported

Generalizations on the validity of the surveys Not all the surveys follow strict probability methods for respondent selection Caution should be exercised for results of surveys whose response rates may be decent but are not validated with demographics of population under study Results should be qualified (or understood) as responses of a particular segment or type of businessmen and this differs for every institution conducting the surveys The consistency of patterns in responses across institutions (even if they have different types of respondents & methods) somehow gives validity to the perceptions on corruption levels in the country

Insights from Data Results Media reports have a big impact on perceptions Word of mouth by colleagues and friends also affect perceptions When looking at the 2005 TI-CPI RP data, the high-low range of scores is 2.3 to 2.8, indicating variability in responses and RP ranking may actually be between 97 to 130 (117) but scores are still relatively low Status of high profile corruption cases easily gets the attention of analysts, businessmen, and expatriates Systems and efforts that will help sustain decreasing incidences of bribery in public transactions should be maintained

THE NATIONAL INTEGRITY SYSTEM (NIS)

A study by Transparency International- Philippines2006

BackgroundThe concept of the National Integrity System (NIS) has been developed and promoted by TI as part of its holistic approach to countering corruption. The NIS consists of the key institutions, laws and practices that contribute to integrity, transparency and accountability in a society. When it functions properly, the NIS combats corruption as part of the larger struggle against abuse of power, malfeasance, and misappropriation in all its forms. The NIS approach provides a framework with which to analyze both the extent and causes of corruption in a given national context, as well as the adequacy and effectiveness of national anti-corruption efforts. By diagnosing the strengths and weaknesses of a particular integrity system, an evaluation based on the NIS can help inform anti-corruption advocacy and reform efforts.

Background (continued)ExecutiveLegislaturePolitical PartiesElectoral Commissions Supreme Audit Institution Judiciary Public Sector Police and ProsecutorsOmbudsmanAnti-corruption agenciesMediaCivil SocietyPrivate SectorRegional and Local GovernmentInternational InstitutionsPublic ProcurementThe main pillars of the NIS are considered to be the following:

What is the National Integrity SystemTIs National Integrity System (NIS) country studies are qualitative reports that provide a detailed and nuanced assessment of anti-corruption systems at country level. Via these studies, TI aims to provide an overview of the National Integrity Systems in countries from all regions of the world. The studies provide both benchmarks for measuring further developments in these countries, and a basis for comparison among countries. TI believes it is necessary to understand the provision for and capacity of National Integrity Systems to be able to diagnose corruption risks.

TI-Philippines: Goals of the NIS ProjectThe Philippine Chapter of TI is the one spearheading the studyTheir goals are toUndertake a survey regarding the basic state pillars and bring recommendations on how to reduce corruption in this institutions Publish the survey in National Integrity System Study in English language Promote results of National Integrity System Study trough mass media Stimulate broader public discussion on anti-corruption issues Strength the rule of the lawImprove accountability and transparency of the public sector

TI-Philippines: Project ActivitiesInvestigation of the corruption phenomenon on the ground i.e. in 11 basic state pillars (Government, Parliament, Judiciary, Prosecutors, Police,) Printing of the National Integrity System Study Media presentation Distribution of the Study

TI-Philippines: Methods UsedDr. Gabriella Quimson (of the Griffith University) is the consultant of TI Philippines on this project. She had accepted a 6-month project with AUSAID.In a recent interview via phone (to Australia) she says she would not yet be in a position to disclose details on methodology and results until the project is completely finished and TI gives the go signalA focus group discussion was held in late June 2006 to present the initial results to various stakeholders but this did not prove to be productive enough for concrete validation of resultsAccording to a 2-page summary of the initial results, the study utilized institutional research and news reports to gather data for the study and interviews were no longer conductedThe report has not been finalized and a summary of findings is the only available release on the studyA second draft of the report is being prepared and more FGDs for validation of results will be conducted among stakeholders in the coming months

Comments on the TI-Philippines Method for the NIS Study The failure of Dr. Quimson to be there during the presentation of initial results has been a great factor in the inability to explain in great detail the methods used and conclusions reached by TI-Phils for the study The initial plan to conduct in-depth interviews would have been a good parallel method together with institutional research and gathering of data from news reports (the latter was cited as the method used based on the 2-page summary released) It would be essential to get hold of a copy of the full report before any comprehensive assessments of the methods and the findings of TI Phils for the NIS study can be madeA second draft of the report is being prepared and FGDs will again be held to present the results to various stakeholders before the report is finalized -- which can shed better light on methods used

SUGGESTIONS

Suggestions TO GOVERNMENT Govt agencies have to have a clear, comprehensive and inter-linked plan for combating corruption and disseminate to the public in simple laymans terms Govt institutions should aggressively & unceasingly trumpet gains in anti-corruption efforts in the tri-media A regular TV, radio, newspaper blitz or peryodikit in barangays on anti-corruption programs & updates should be sustained Hotlines for reporting cases of corruption should be propagated and popularized School curricula should incorporate values which would foster a society intolerable to corruption Linkages and joint efforts of religious and civic organizations with govt should be popularly disseminated Strong grassroots (barangay level) support to create a continuing momentum for anti-corruption efforts Broadcast or publish names of people with cases of graft and resolution (updates) reached on these cases

Suggestions TO GOVERNMENT Actively encourage business to participate in anti-corruption activities (sit in bidding and awards committees, contribute to anti-graft funds, etc.) and acknowledge their anti-corruption efforts Have a database of members of the business community, regional managers (especially in HK and Singapore), expatriates & their respective networks and create a regular means of updating them of governments anti-corruption efforts through an email system or newsletter distribution Follow through the corruption fund they are willing to put up in order to strengthen anti-corruption efforts and plan with them who, how and where it should be disbursed Set-up a regular schedule of meeting with business or be included in their forums where govt can inform them of recent actions, solicit their assistance and suggestions Know where businessmen are susceptible to corruption and focus anti-corruption efforts there [Mine the survey data] Transactions to watch out for: local & national govt permits and licensing, income payments, import/export regulations, receivables from govt [simplifying processes and transactions will greatly help] Sectors to watch out for: construction, defence, import/export, logging & lumber Agencies to focus on: BIR, BoC, DPWH, AFP, PNP, DENR, LTO Make business groups & networks realize the importance of promoting strong private sector (business) ethics to help prevent corruption

Suggestions to the PRIVATE/BUSINESS SECTOR Continue to be active in anti-corruption efforts especially in sectors vulnerable to corruption (construction, defence, import/export, logging & lumber) and in crucial agencies (BIR, BoC, DPWH, AFP, PNP, DENR) Take steps to make the plans for an anti-corruption fund realizable Undertake mechanisms for policing own ranks against corruption by practicing strong business ethics and corporate governance within their spheres of influence Be more diligent in demanding for receipts, always issuing receipts, keeping one set of books only, and paying taxes honestly

Suggestions to SURVEY RESEARCH COMPANIES Be more transparent and comprehensive in reporting research methods used for studies made public Consider archiving data results so that they may be validated and/ or mined by other interested partiesContinually assess, evaluate and improve methods of research (from sampling to questionnaire design to data processing and analysis) so that credibility and integrity will be protected Be meticulous in applying error margins and confidence intervals when interpreting survey data results [Note: Standard error margins and confidence intervals used are applicable only to methods using simple random sampling (SRS) and therefore allowances should be made for multi-stage methods] Exercise caution in reporting survey findings and making generalizations and conclusions when non-probability methods are used

Suggestions to MEDIA Take pains to report properly survey methods used and survey results; being wary of sound bites which may be misleading Exercise more responsibility in doing further research on studies on corruption rather than taking everything at face value as reported by the survey firms Consider good news (positive actions, improved efforts, encouraging updates) in the battle against corruption equally as important to report and publish as the negative news on corruption Give as much space and airtime to positive developments and news in the fight against corruption as a means to encourage integrity champions and honest officials & employees in government Focus reports not only on corrupt national officials but also against corrupt local executives, corrupt businessmen and corrupt private individuals

Suggestions to CIVIL SOCIETY Continue efforts to help the public sector in its difficult task of fighting corruption by: Assisting in info-dissemination on ways to prevent corruption Propagating gains in anti-corruption efforts Being critical of government lapses but proactive in its efforts and suggestions to help curb corruption Being active in joint efforts with government like participation in Biddings and Awards Committees (BACs) Explore other creative means of participation in boosting anti-corruption efforts especially those that will encourage integrity champions and honest government officials and employees Aid in gathering evidences not only against corrupt national officials but also against corrupt local executives, corrupt businessmen and corrupt private individuals

END OF PRESENTATIONMaraming Salamat po!