pharma launch adoption stall case - at least the kool aid tasted good
DESCRIPTION
Getting a product to market is not the challenge meeting financial expectations now that's the problem! Increasingly pharmaceutical new product launches are failing to gain traction in the market and failing to meet revenue expectations. The story contained in this presentation, although it dates back 11 years, could have been written today, as many recent product launches have followed the same path as the brand in this presentation.TRANSCRIPT
New Product LaunchAdoption Stall Case Study(At Least the Kool Aid Tasted Good)
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The Case: Pre-launch
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The Love Affair BeginsDecember 6th 2001
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Watson Establishes the Revenue Goal
The OAB market in the United States alone grew from just $40 million in 1997 to around $1 billion in 2002 (2400% growth)
$200 million peak annual sales demonstrates they are planning to be a 3rd /4th line agent.
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How Can We Fail?“If all we get is a small percentage”
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Does this not suggest a high rate of treatment failure?
Do physicians understand this?
To what degree do they care?
How does persistency impact Rx behavior?
Here’s a Problem
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Our Solution!“We win… at least in a clinical trial”
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We Win!“Or do we?”
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How does this compare to the competition?
Detrol LA = 80% Reduction
6.25% worse performance versus Detrol LA
But Wait We Work!
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Position on the Basis of Side Effects
Let me know when you are sure!?!?!
Oxybutynin is not the Gold Standard Detrol LA is.
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Same Old Approach
Potential vs.Probable
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Same Old Approach
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Mass TargetingPotential versus Probable Targeting
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The Mass Gets BiggerPotential versus Probable Targeting
The Case: The Launch
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If we launch it they will come!
Traditional Approach:Pre-launch Promotion
Offensive Defensive
Guerilla Flanking
Offensive Defensive
Guerilla Flanking
Strategic MatrixStrategic Matrix
?
What problem is Oxytrol Targeting?
(x-sell)
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Communication to PhysiciansPositioned as a First Line Therapy
Metric Placebo (n=114) Uni-Det (n=125) Oxytrol (n=122)
Mean incontinence episodes / day 5.0 to 2.9 -(42%) 5.0 to 1. (-80%) 4.7 to 1.9 (-60%)Complete continence 22% 39% 38%Micturition frequency decrease 1.4 episodes/day 2.2 episodes/day mean of 1.9 episodes/dayAverage void volume increase 32 mL/void 29 mL/voidQuality-of-life scores significantly improved significantly improvedsystemic adverse events 15 29 (23.2%) 23 (18.8%)Anticholinergic adverse effects 7.30% 4.10%Constipation 5.70% 3.30%Localized Skin Reactions 7 7 32 (26%)Treatment Discontinuation 2 (1.6%) 13 (10.7%)
12 (10%) due to skin
2% typical with Estraderm
Metric Placebo (n=114) Uni-Det (n=125) Oxytrol (n=122)
Mean incontinence episodes / day 5.0 to 2.9 -(42%) 5.0 to 1. (-80%) 4.7 to 1.9 (-60%)Complete continence 22% 39% 38%Micturition frequency decrease 1.4 episodes/day 2.2 episodes/day mean of 1.9 episodes/dayAverage void volume increase 32 mL/void 29 mL/voidQuality-of-life scores significantly improved significantly improvedsystemic adverse events 15 29 (23.2%) 23 (18.8%)Anticholinergic adverse effects 7.30% 4.10%Constipation 5.70% 3.30%Localized Skin Reactions 7 7 32 (26%)Treatment Discontinuation 2 (1.6%) 13 (10.7%)
12 (10%) due to skin
2% typical with Estraderm
However…However…
$200 million peak annual sales demonstrates they are $200 million peak annual sales demonstrates they are planning to be a 3rd / 4th line agent.planning to be a 3rd / 4th line agent.
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Communication to Salesforce vs.Communication to Physicians
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First Month
Oxytrol Promotion initiated in May 2003.
Good initial uptake!?
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Early Warning Sign of TroubleEarly Warning Sign of Trouble
Seven weeks Post Launch (Mid June 2003)Source: Watson Pharma
2,299 Rxs1% NRx share
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co - 10 July 2003
….the key catalyst for Watson`s upcoming quarterly results remains the Oxytrol launch (May 19) and overall earnings execution. Script numbers indicate that Oxytrol has achieved about 2.1% market share as of last week. This is a decent achievement, but sales (even including inventory build) likely won`t hit our estimate of $9M for Q2, part of which will be shifted to Q3.
Prescription Data for Specialty Companies: Week Ended Aug. 1
Source: Raymond James
Total prescriptions for Watson’s branded patch for incontinence, Oxytrol, were 2,791 in the week endedAugust 1, up from 2,605 the prior week. Watson launched Oxytrol in April and began promoting it in May.We project $35 million in 2003 Oxytrol sales this year, within a range of $25 million to $40 million thecompany is targeting.
Seven weeks Post Launch (Mid June 2003)Source: Watson Pharma
2,299 Rxs1% NRx share
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co - 10 July 2003
….the key catalyst for Watson`s upcoming quarterly results remains the Oxytrol launch (May 19) and overall earnings execution. Script numbers indicate that Oxytrol has achieved about 2.1% market share as of last week. This is a decent achievement, but sales (even including inventory build) likely won`t hit our estimate of $9M for Q2, part of which will be shifted to Q3.
Prescription Data for Specialty Companies: Week Ended Aug. 1
Source: Raymond James
Total prescriptions for Watson’s branded patch for incontinence, Oxytrol, were 2,791 in the week endedAugust 1, up from 2,605 the prior week. Watson launched Oxytrol in April and began promoting it in May.We project $35 million in 2003 Oxytrol sales this year, within a range of $25 million to $40 million thecompany is targeting.
+21%, but…Re-fill RateIs low
ExperienceTrial Issue
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2nd Month
Source: Goldman Sachs Annual Healthcare Conference June 2003
Evidence of Adoption Stall exists
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Oxytrol brought in $23 million in revenues in 2003, which was well short of original expectations of $50 million….
The already-crowded market will become more so as two additional companies enter the fray later this year, which may well mean Watson won't sell $50 million worth of the drug this year either.
FY 2003 Results
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7.1%
8.9%
3.8%
Under performing
3rd Month
Week ending March 15 2004
This Data suggest growth is due to category growth not organic growth
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7.1%
8.9%
3.8%
1.4% Growth
Week endingApril 15 2004
(3.4%) Growth
4th Month
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The Hole Get DeeperEarly 2004
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As a result of this refocusing effort, the Company intends to terminate its contract sales force agreement with Ventiv Health, Inc. in the primary care area.
"As we approached the one year anniversary of the launch of OXYTROL(R), it was appropriate that we evaluate our efforts and assess the current competitive environment," continued Dr. Chao. "While we have had success with OXYTROL(R) in the specialty urology and OB/GYN markets, we have faced challenges in the primary care market."
This is Success?June 28th, 2004
Specialty TRx TRx Growth March April
URO 18,792 18,881 0.47%
OB/GYN 7,866 7,800 (0.83%)
PCP 17,043 17,639 3.49%
Specialty TRx TRx Growth March April
URO 18,792 18,881 0.47%
OB/GYN 7,866 7,800 (0.83%)
PCP 17,043 17,639 3.49%
??
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Still Drinking the Kool AidJune 28th, 2004
2004 Sales Tracking
Q1 = $8.0 millionQ2 = $8.7 millionQ3 = Sales force reductions = sales probable revenue drop
2004 Sales Company Projection = $55 millionOur Projection = ~$33 million Revised Company Projection = $47 million
which requires 81% growth rest of year !?!?!
2004 Sales Tracking
Q1 = $8.0 millionQ2 = $8.7 millionQ3 = Sales force reductions = sales probable revenue drop
2004 Sales Company Projection = $55 millionOur Projection = ~$33 million Revised Company Projection = $47 million
which requires 81% growth rest of year !?!?!
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NewsAugust 3rd, 2004
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14% Growth
2% Growth
Since April 2004
Share Growth FLATCategory Growth
Sales Curve Dips After 17 MonthsSeptember 16th, 2004
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Salesforce De-motivatedOctober 10th, 2004
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Oxytrol(R) sales of $9.8 million for the three months and $24.3 million for nine months ended September 30, 2004
NewsOctober 27th, 2004
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JP Morgan ConferenceJanuary 11th, 2005
0% Growth
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Sales of Watson's OXYTROL(R) product increased $4.2 million to $13.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2004, compared to $9.6 million in the prior year period.
$23 million 2003 sales - $50 million target
$38.1 million 2004 sales - $1.4 billion US market 2004(3% share of revenue)
FY 2004 Results
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FY 2004 ResultsNo Growth
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Also in urology, our OXYTROL® productachieved $43 million in sales, a 13% increase from 2004.
FY 2005 ResultsShare Shrinks / Growth from re-fills
2005 OAB Mkt Stats
Market Size = $2.5 billionGrowth = 10.8%
2.2% Share 2.2% Organic Growth
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FY 2006 / 2007 / Results
No Reported Sales
Brand segment selling and marketing expenses decreased during the year ended December 31, 2006 as compared to the prior year due to lower product spending for Oxytrol® during the current year.
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2008 Results
Oxytrol (oxybutynin transdermal system) had annual sales of approximately $39 million in the U.S., based on IMS sales data ending August 2008 5 years post launch!
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