Ph.D. Study in Economics:Completion & Labor Market

Outcomes

Wendy A. Stock, Ph.D.Professor and Co-Department Head

Department of Agricultural Economics & Economics

Two Studies

1. Graduate Education2. Labor Market Outcomes

Graduate Education Study

Goal Identify factors associated with attrition & completion

Tier1 2 3 4 5 Total

Program Rank 1-6 7-15 16-30 31-48 >48 -Number of programs 3 6 7 6 5 27Number of students 103 149 144 127 66 586

First year attrition rate 2.9<

12.8 10.6 22.0>

22.7>

13.7

Second year attrition rate 10.7 4.7<

22.0>

17.3 15.2 13.8

Third year attrition rate 1.0 3.4 2.1 3.1 9.1>

3.2Fourth year attrition rate 0.0 2.7 2.8 2.4 0.0 1.9

Fifth year attrition rate 0.0 1.3 2.8>

0.0<

1.5 1.2

Total two year attrition rate 13.6<

17.4<

32.6>

39.4>

37.9>

27.5

Total five year attrition rate 14.6<

24.8<

40.4 44.9>

48.5>

33.8

Still in program rate 52.4>

43.6 33.3 31.5<

34.8 39.1

Ph.D. completion rate 33.0 31.5 26.2 23.6 16.7<

27.1

Table 1 - Ph.D. Program Attrition and Completion Rates, by Program Rank

Attrition, still in program, and completion rates are all calculated relative to the original population of entering students (N=586), and are reported as percentages. The > and < superscripts indicate that the rate is statistically different from the rate for the rest of the sample at the 0.05 significance level (two-tailed tests).

Race & Ethnicity

Total: 586White: 278Not Reported: 188Asian :83Other: 31Black: 6

Race & Ethnicity

Total: 586Non-Hispanic: 380Not Reported: 170Hispanic: 36

1

mean

Program Characteristics dY/dX a z-stat. dY/dX a z-stat.

Tier 1 or 2 0.44 -0.210** -3.90 -0.216** -3.70Tier 3 or 4 0.46 - - - -Tier 5 0.10 -0.155** -2.39 -0.137* -1.66First-year class size 26.39 0.000 0.05 0.000 -0.07Faculty-student ratio 0.27 0.144 0.47 0.109 0.31Private university 0.42 -0.049 -0.71 -0.054 -0.73Terminal master's degree offered 0.15 -0.054 -0.71 -0.052 -0.61Seminar attendance required 0.59 0.081* 1.66 0.086* 1.64Core exam pass required 0.65 0.060 1.31 0.023 0.46No shared offices 0.17 0.233** 2.30 0.160 1.51Individual advisers assigned 0.32 0.055 1.10 0.062 1.13

dropout

years 1-5years 1-2

Table 2 - Predicting Attrition, probit regressions(Dependent Variable = 1 if student dropped out)

dropout2 3

Other Factors associated with ↓ Attrition

•Quantitative & Verbal GRE Scores

•Undergraduate degree in econ/math

•Attended foreign or top-50 foreign undergrad

•Having financial aid in the first year

Program Characteristics Mean dY/dX a z-stat.

Tier 1 or 2 0.44 -0.132* -1.66

Tier 3 or 4 0.46 - -

Tier 5 0.10 0.092 0.90

First-year class size 26.39 0.013** 2.17

Faculty-student ratio 0.27 0.623 1.43

Private university 0.42 0.127 1.37

Terminal master's degree offered 0.15 0.097 0.88

Seminar attendance required 0.59 -0.039 -0.58

Core exam pass required 0.65 0.028 0.43

No shared offices 0.17 -0.247** -2.75

Individual advisers assigned 0.32 0.023 0.36

Program-level two year attrition rate 0.28 -0.632* -1.64

Percent of dissertations essays 67.20 0.002 1.36

More than five years full financial aid usual 0.21 -0.057 -0.79

Hard completion time limit 0.23 0.016 0.13

Soft completion time limit 0.46 0.073 0.97

Pre-thesis research required 0.46 -0.116* -1.67

Topic seeker meetings with faculty 0.42 0.028 0.43

Table 4 - Predicting Completion, probit regression(Dependent Variable = 1 if student completed Ph.D. within five years)

Other Factors associated with ↑ Completion

•Male

•Attended Top-60 liberal arts undergrad

•Attended foreign or top-50 foreign undergrad

•Not undergrad in econ

Career Outcomes Study

GoalDocument initial, early, mid-

career outcomes for Ph.D.s in economics

Career Outcomes Study

Longitudinal Data on graduating class of 1996-97

Three Waves: 1997, 2003, 2008

(1) (2) (3)

2008 Respondents

2003 Respondents

1997 Repondents

(n = 207) a (n = 302) a (n = 483) b

Employment CharacteristicsPercent unemployed 0.0 1.3 2.7Percent of employed with full-time job 97.0 96.0 95.5Percent of employed with permanent job 96.1 81.8 80.6Percent of employed with job in U.S. 82.0 79.5 74.9Distribution by employment sector (percentage):

Percent of employed in academe 56.8 62.6 57.9Percent of employed in business/industry 15.0 12.1 17.0Percent of employed in government, international organizations, research organizations 27.1 25.3 25.1

Percent of Academics with Tenure 78.5 - -Source : Authors' surveys.a Sample size varies by row, reported n is maximum. All reported data are based on at least five observations.

Table 2 - Employment Outcomes of 1996-97 Economics Ph.D. Graduates

2008 Responses

2003 Responses

1997 Responses

All 2008 respondents (N = 174)

The position is:a

related to my field 4.5 4.4 4.4

commensurate with my education & training 4.4 4.4 4.4

similar to what I expected to be doing when I began my Ph.D. program 3.6 3.7 3.6

Had knownb

0.87 0.87 -

a Reports mean response to question based on the scale: 5 = strongly agree, 1 = strongly disagreeb Reports percent responding "yes" to: Had you known then what you know now, would you still have enrolled in a Ph.D. program in economics?

Table 9 -Economists Opinions about Current Job

Ph.D. Study in Economics:Completion & Labor Market

Outcomes

Wendy A. Stock, Ph.D.Professor and Co-Department Head

Department of Agricultural Economics & Economics