phosphates prices hit plateau; top producers cautious · pdf file · 2017-05-15400...

© Copyright 2016 Profercy Phosphates SC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 01

9 March 2017

Published by

Profercy Phosphates SC

Editor Tom Jago

World Producer Position

Tabulation comment: Our global

DAP, MAP producer stock change call

for end-March is still for a slim build of

67,000t. With most of this in Jordan,

and very little elsewhere, buyers are

on the run to secure coverage into

April and even some into May. This is

still without any buying move by India.

Phosphates prices hit plateau; Top producers cautious

on next step, recognising they need to bring India out

World phosphates markets are tired of the break-neck price acceleration seen over

the last 90 days. Traders are not interested in new position-taking, fearing that

producers – now with the best cash margins for over a year – would likely abandon

any notional umbrella support as soon as Chinese producers start to show large

surplus avails for export. At the same time, many importers are also pulling back,

now satisfied on prompt needs, now tempted back to fresh deferral. This is showing

up in slower markets in the US, Europe, Latin America and China. The world

market is now waiting to view early skirmishes in the traditional Q2 China vs India

DAP battle. The Indian stance on “no import interest” is not convincing many

observers as tenders come and go, each one with tighter shipment and validity

windows. The latest from NFL requests 3-day validity, suggesting this time it is

seeking sharp and serious prompt offers. As per our notes last week, Indian Q2

phosacid imports have been settled at $590pt P2O5 cfr India; now for US acid as

well as Moroccan. This gives a local DAP cost equivalent to imports at $400pt cfr.

One-minute briefing

• MAP flat in Brazil and Argentina at 395-410pt cfr Brazil, Argentina; Softer in the US

• Pakistan pays up for DAP over last done, but gets better deal on April than March

• Europe DAP prices repeat recent port terminal price peaks, but on lower volumes

• NOLA DAP dives as Russian cargoes arrive: But big US exports offset import hike

• China “lianghui” political summits focus more on agriculture than industrial pollution

• Our take on this is that support for the ag-sector will, for the near-future, prevail…

• ...over any new moves to force closures or clean-ups in the phosphates sector

• As the issue of balancing ag-sector needs vs. contamination risks to waterways…

• …continues in China, US EPA news shows MissPhos is out of clean-up funds

While this is now expected to be followed by smaller suppliers in South Africa, Israel and Vietnam, the issue is more complex for IFFCO as it is both a seller via its jvs in Jordan & Senegal and a buyer for DAP and NPK output in India

World DAP MAP NP snapshot

Exporter +/- Kt

USA +15

Mexico +10

Russia +15

Lithuania -4

Morocco +8

Tunisia +15

Saudi Arabia +5

Australia +13

Jordan +45

China port warehouse -55

Stock change end Mar +67

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

Soyb

ean

c/b

u

DA

P $

pt

& C

orn

c/b

u

DAP vs crops close-up: DAP prices flatten out after sharp spikeTraders & importers lose confidence; Producers taking cautious approach

CME Soybeans futures DAP fob Tampa DAP fob NOLA (metric equiv) CME Corn futures

Beans slip back into $10.10s/bu, as corn holds in the high $3.60s/bu....

DAP off at NOLA as import cargoes arrive; Tampa export values hold

© Copyright 2017 Profercy Phosphates SLAll rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or

transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 02

US DAP, MAP Balance

Exporter Destination Kt

Mosaic Brazil 85

India (system) 0

C America, Carib 32

Mexico 12

Canada 0

Australia 55

Japan 26

Colombia 22

PCS (in Feb 12kt) 0

Local sales Southeast producers 420

Total excl MES 695

Est. Production

Mosaic* (excl MES) 415

former CF 145

PCS Aurora 115

White Springs 35

Total 710

Stock change end March +15

* Mosaic, DAP, MAP & MES output is seen

continuing at 80-85% rates through Q1,

but with some slow-down impact of grade

switching MAP to MES.

Mexico balance DAP, MAP

Q4

Fertinal Local 56

C America 37

Colombia 17

Helm Brazil 33

Nitron Uruguay, Arg 35

Q1 17

Fertinal Local 35

Nitron Europe 60

Nitron Arg, Uruguay 30

Fertinal Chile 65

Total 368

Production Estimate Kt

Q4 195

Q1 ops basis OCP rock blend 185

Total 380


Fertinal has a busy Q1 2017, and has little

carry -over pressure end March

´

China China local: Domestic phosphates market conditions are mixed across the

various regions, and product categories, headed into peak season. After a

rapid, 90-day re-fill run from early December to early March, distributors now

have to sell their last-minute length into usage. This is affecting DAP, NPKs,

and MAP differently. (details below).

• For NPKs in central, eastern and southern China, local movement is

ramping up, and prices are buoyant. But for local MAP - used as NPK

feedstock – NPK producers are holding back – first selling strong into the

downstream pick-up. For DAP, with the major application period for in the

north and northeast about a month away, distributor re-fill has cooled off.

• Local MOP-based 15-15-15 prices have picked up to RMB1,985-1,995pt

in the main central and eastern China markets, for an equivalent around

$290pt fot. The market is now into main-season movement from factories

to distributors.

• MAP 11-44 prices, however, are down, as the same NPK producers

selling out their first wave of stock are cautious into a fresh wave of feed-

stock refill. With the entire ag-sector seeing living cautiously on stock

management, NPK producers sense an opportunity to pull back on blend-

stock refill before the next wave of local demand comes firm for the end

product NPKs. This has left powder 11-44 down around RMB100pt

($14.50) to a new range at RMB1,825-1,930pt fot ex works (mid/high

$260s).

• DAP is little changed in the earlier range of RMB2,760-2,820pt ($400-

410) fot ex inland store across Northeast, North and Eastern markets.

Central China markets are reckoned around RMB$2,720s pt fot ex inland

warehouse. These reflect factory netbacks around RMB2,470-2,520pt

($357-365pt fot) fot ex works at the prime producing areas of Yunnan,

Guizhou & Hubei.

China export: DAP producers are in a stand-off on DAP, the first real test of

the G6+2 notional target of $370pt fob on full cargoes for Q2 loading. The first

short into South Asia – likely a part-lot to complete new business into

Pakistan – is a major talking point.

• Export netbacks: Trader offers for DAP into Central America (see Latin

America section) fit with firm producer offers at around the $370pt fob

level. But there is still controversy over recent rumours coming from

Pakistan, where the supposed trader short noted above would need in the

low $360s pt fob to break-even, but perhaps with some earlier length to

average down. There is time to resolve this sale to Pakist, but for now,

most producers are projecting a firm stance. Dark DAP from Hubei - one

of Pakistan's preferred DAP origins – are still firm at $370pt fob China.

• Producer projection: DAP producers are trying to project a confident

stance on events during March and 1H April, into the main wave of

distributor DAP sales into usage. For now, there is no trader engagement

on fresh positioning- most with little faith in producers to defend any new

positions they might feel encouraged to take.



Russia DAP, MAP balance

Phosagro sales Kt

Phosagro West Europe 68

Brazil (M, D, NPKs) 45

Uruguay (M, D,) 16

E Eur (M, NP, NPK) 45

Local, FSU (M, NPK) 195

Distributor USA (D, M) 40

IPL (MoU) India (D, NPK) 0

South Africa 0

Traders Argentina (25) 0

container SE Asia (D, NPKs) 10

Eurochem sales Kt

Eurochem E Eur, Baltic (M, D) 25

West Europe 22

Local, FSU (MAP) 45

USA (M combo) 16

Brazil Tocantins 41

Trader Argentina (MAP) 28

Uralchem sales Kt

Uralchem Local MAP, NPK 14

E Europe MAP 10

Total Sales 620


Phosagro Cherepovets D 85

Cherepovets M 95

Balakovo M 65

NP/NPKs (all units) 195

Eurochem Fosforit 95

Belorechensk M 75

Uralchem 25

Total avail 635


Lithuania balance DAP

Lifosa March Kt

Eurochem Germany 18

France 22

Benelux 15

Baltic, East Eur 14

Total sale 69


March 65

Total avail 65

Stock change end March -4

• Tactics: The leading DAP producers are expected to take a cautious

approach on April/May export offers, first keen to see India’s cards on

subsidy and retail price limits. There is one more G6+2 meeting yet to

take place in late March, and this will be the decisive test on common

price targets. As usual, producer co-operation on DAP is likely to be

tighter than it is on MAP.

• Local coal & ammonia: The impact of lower coal production during the

summer months May to September will be important in determining coal

prices, and in turn, the impact on captive ammonia prices.

• MAP as always is a more disparate market, with less producer cohesion.

Offers are in range for small lot export quotes in a lower range either side

of $300pt fob for 11-44 and at +/- $340pt fob for 10-50.

• Port inventories are heard inching back up, but are still at historically

slim levels – around 315,000t for DAP and 110,000t for MAP.

• Last done for any big cargoes out of China are for MAP 10-50 to

Australia ranging $358-360pt fob. There have been no big DAP-only

cargoes done ex China for almost 2 months. Since then, only minor lots

of DAP have traded to SE Asia markets ranging $370-385pt fob, these for

specific brands/colours to Vietnam, so not comparable with markets such

as Pakistan or India.

250

300

350

400

450

500

$ p

t fo

b T

amp

a

DAP $pt fob Tampa: Early 2017 export price surge

Mosaic holds export DAP at $375 fob, but Argentina netback is higher

The current 2017 recovery has shades of 2013-14 bull-run. In 2 months, US export prices have reversed 12 months of previous loses



Morocco DAP, MAP, NP/Ks

OCP sales Kt

OCP Brazil 105

1 x Feb carry Ethiopia 145

Feb carry USA 55

Mar USA 110

Benin NPKs, DAP 37

Nigeria NPKs, DAP 48

Mali NPKs 42

Other W Africa 36

Feb carry West Europe 45

Mar West Europe 95

E Europe, Balkans 38

Turkey 0

N Africa (MAP) 16

Local 85

Trader Argentina 25

Total Sales 887

Production Estimate* Kt

March all Jorf grades 635

Feb carry to Mar 260

Total avails 895


OCP still has a big program to complete

by end March. Production should ramp up

by month end with the addition of JPH III.

Tunisia balance

Sales Mar Kt

GCT Italy allocation 12

Turkey 0

UK, Ireland 8

France, Spain 5

Local 10

Total sale 35


Mar More stable rates 50

Total avail 50


GCT is still heard at below-capacity DAP

rates at Gabes. Operational stability is

improving but overall, rates are still

below 50% total capacity load.

SE Asia, Pacific Vietnam: Chinese export sales volumes are said to have dropped off as

sellers hold price offers on recognised brands/colours in the low $390s pt cfr

bagged HCMC. Exporters are testing buyers on recent deferral, projecting

there is time in hand, and patience to wait.

Indonesia: Petrokimia Gresik is reckoned to have awarded on cargo of

20,000t light coloured DAP for early April loading heard in the low $380s pt

cfr, though exact specs on this are unclear. It is thought that in the tender

Gresik had bid on a larger volume for up to 40,000t.

• Gresik NP, NPK exports: As per our earlier reports, export business for

2 x 30,000t of NP20-20 and a panamax of of 15-15-15 to India – both

linked with IPL – may have left Gresik short of near-term P avails.

Australia: The intended late-February US panamax of MAP, DAP and MES

that Mosaic has under contract with a Koch is heard to have rolled into early

March, shipping this week on the MV Pindos.

Taiwan: TFC was in the market for 3,000t MAP 10-50 powder (and 300t of

technical MAP 12-61) for arrival 5-10 April. Offers were heard in the low/mid

$330s pt cfr, in a tier below offers elsewhere for gMAP.

South Asia Pakistan: Meetings are on-going in Karachi this week with several regular

importers curious if a supposed $378pt cfr import business last heard from

Quantum to Fauji for 30,000t Chinese DAP can be repeated. The next moves

are thought to be in preparation by 3 buyers for April shipments totalling

around 100,000t. DAP.

• Spot trade: Despite scrapping its tender for late March shipment DAP in

the face of offers ranging $383-385pt cfr, a stop-gap solution is reckoned

to have been found, with business rumoured settled with Quantum for a

smaller volume near 30,000t for open-origin DAP (likely Chinese). This is

said to be for much later shipment into late April, and priced around $378

pt cfr Karachi. If DAP prices do start to fall from current peaks, there may

be scope for Australian DAP to be positioned in as cover.

• Last done in Pakistan for DAP was a Sabic sale to Engro, in retrospect

heard done at $370pt cfr, instead of the $375pt cfr first indicated. While

the latest Fauji deal is $8pt higher, buyers see the outcome as a buyer

victory compared to the prompt shipment offers in the tender.

• NP20-20 tender: A Fauji a tender closing 8 March (valid 15 March)

seeking 30,000t dark NP20-20 is reckoned to have received 3-4 offers of

Chinese material in the high $250s-260pt cfr Karachi.

More Pakistan next page



Saudi balance DAP, MAP

Q3

Ma’aden India DAP (7 lots) 265

Pakistan 28

Yara, Brazil MAP 75

LDC Brazil MAP 65

Sabic India (4 lots) 110

CIL, ZIL, GSFC

East Africa 30

Indagro, Brazil 40

Q4

Ma’aden India (5 lots) 168

Trader Sudan DAP 17

Brazil 43

Pakistan (3 lots) 86

Tanzania, Moz 26

Vietnam 17

Australia 36

Sabic India (DAP 4 lots) 114

Trader Sudan DAP 15

Indagro Brazil MAP 40

Trader Kenya DAP 25

Q1

Ma’aden India (DAP 2 lots) 65

Nitron Argentina, Urug 30

Yara Brazil 95

Tanzania, Moz 20

Ameropa Australia 35

LDC Australia 30

BADC Bangladesh 2 lots 65

Sabic India (DAP 3 lot) 75

Pakistan (Feb) 25

Kenya 25

SE Asia 25

LDC Brazil 25

Pakistan (Mar) 25

Total sale 1740


Q3 50/50 DAP, MAP 615

Q4 50/50 DAP, MAP 605

Q1 Turnaround 515

Total avail 1735

Stock change end March -5

Ma’aden and Sabic are both sold out

through end March

• NP20-20 value comparison to DAP: Working on a nutrient-equivalent

basis (and valuing N at the current Chinese urea export equivalent for a

notional $250-255pt cfr Pakistan, or $5.5/unit N) - the total value of 20

units of N would be around $110pt cfr. This is at a time when Pakistan is

already having trouble exporting its urea surplus. Basis the sharpest

NP20-20 price indicated at $258pt cfr Karachi, the P2O5 in the NP20-20

breaks out at $7.4/unit P2O5. This is substantially above the $6.06/unit

P2O5 in DAP at last done $378pt cfr, net N at the same value as above.

This calculation suggests DAP is still the cheapest form of concentrated

phosphate fertilizer net its 18 units N content valued at the current

merchant price of urea.

Bangladesh: As expected, BADC is due to lift its next cargo of DAP under

G2G finance from Ma’aden in early April. This further extends near-term

Ma’aden export commitments on DAP.

Nepal continues to ramp up its regular DAP import purchasing, with a fresh

AICL tender closing 10 March for 20,000t DAP for likely June delivery to AICL

warehouses on the Indian/Nepal border. As usual, these trade route involves

DAP shipped into EC India.

India: Buyers in India have been closely tuned into events in Pakistan – as

above. News of the first apparent trader short in South Asian DAP markets

market is a big issue, triggering expectations/hopes for downside scope on

offers to India. Recent March/April shipment indications to India have all

repeatedly been in the $380s pt cfr.

• New NFL tender: A quick, fresh move has been made by NFL, re-

tendering DAP via a new tender closing 28 March but with

uncharacteristically short validity of just 3 days. This tender is for just one

lot of 50,000t to ship by 10 May to the East Coast, instead of the previous

quantities of 2 x 50,000t. This one-at-a-time cargo approach perhaps

suggests NFL reckons it may get lower offers on more volume further out.

• Indian DAP import affordability calculations remain theoretical with no

postings on subsidy nor on retail prices. As per our Update late last week,

the major state election ongoing in Uttar Pradesh should be resolved by

next weekend (11 March), opening the way for clarity on these issues.

Our break-even DAP call - if all current pricing factors remain unchanged

– is noted below

• Indian forex gains & average DAP importer break-even have

continued through into early March, with the Rupee up a further fraction

week-on-week to Rs66.72/$1 ahead of presstime. Assuming a retail

ceiling compromise is reached at Rs21,000pt, and subsidy is rolled over

at Rs8,945pt average Indian DAP importer break-even will be in the mid

$365pt cfr.

• While this looks the closest spread for almost 2 months between

market prices and affordability, any hint of trader success in shorting

against China will probably end up in more Indian import deferral. At the

start of a season, industry-wide deferral can be “engineered” by the DoF

by holding back on the retail and subsidy decisions



Middle East, Africa Saudi Arabia: Sabic is maintaining a bullish line on the near-term outlook,

noting interest from India for Q2, as well as ongoing talks for DAP to SE Asia

(where offers of Chinese DAP are still thin).

• Enriched NPs: Ma’aden is heard looking at some trials of various

enriched NP formulas ahead of the now-announced Ethiopian NPS

tender (see next section).

• Other DAP markets: DAP netbacks to East Africa are rated $378-390pt

fob RAK. A formula-tied Ma’aden DAP cargo is expected to load for

Bangladesh in early April. With half the MPC facility running on MAP, this

further delays the next available DAP cargo for either Pakistan or India.

Iran TSP: ASSC is closing a tender in early May for 100,000t TSP to ship in

three lots July/August. Renewed political tensions and a call for new

sanctions may complicate matters on this tender.

Morocco: Having sold 80,000t MAP for late-March loading just ahead of the

Carnaval break, OCP has followed this up with indications of around 50,000t

fresh MAP business at the same prices netting the mid $380s pt fob Jorf.

• Moroccan TSP has been sold for March shipment at $295pt cfr Brazil.

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

$ p

t cf

r

Indian phosacid vs India DAP, NOLA DAP 2010-17

Phosacid $pt P2O5 cfr India DAP cfr India DAP pst NOLA barge

DAP still buoyant at NOLA. Indian import DAP is still unmoved, but now far below market prices. India buyers still seem to take have the view that their deferral will weaken the market.

Indian import acid settled at $545-550pt P2O5 cfr India for Q1 2017, the lowest since Q4 2009, but rising to $590pt P2O5 cfr for Q2

World DAP, MAP price increases to date have taken place with just one part-cargo of Jordanian of DAP so far purchased by India. NOLA is off this week.

Ethiopia: EABC has now floated a

new tender closing 20 March for

84,425t of NP19-38 7SB. This is

heard to be for relatively prompt

arrival in two lots during April/May,

according to l/c opening.

Supply options: As noted

opposite, Ma'aden is expected to

be a supply candidate featuring in

the mix this time around. It is

understood that trial quantities of

Saudi 19-38 (7S) have already

been offered to South America as

NPK blend-stock.

As the Russian domestic

market, East Europe and Central

Asian go into peak local 2017-18

pre-season campaigns - it remains

to be seen if Phosagro will offer.

May-July is also a typical period

for Russian turnarounds to start



Australia balance DAP, MAP

Q4

Quantum India/Pak combo 55

Pakistan 40

IPL Local Auz (2 lots) 65

Thailand 25

Vietnam 20

Q1 ‘17

IPL Local Auz, NZ 215

Thailand 18

Vietnam 14

Total sale 452


Q4 230

Q1 ‘17 235

Total avail 465


Jordan balance DAP

JPMC Q4 Kt

Helm Turkey (3 lots) 32

Ameropa Turkey (2 lots) 45

Iraq/Kurdistan 12

JPMC Q1 ‘17 Kt

Turkey (2 lots) 36

Iraq/Kurdistan 22

India part lot 28

Total sales 175


Q4 Low rates 105

Q1 Low rates 115

Total avails 220


Europe West Europe: Local markets have flattened out for DAP at Benelux, German

and French Atlantic ports at $415-420pt fca/fot In the Med, offers are

indicative around $410-412pt cfr Spain and Southern France. TSP is heard

holding its earlier gains at $315-320pt fot/fca in NW Europe terminals.

North America US export: Offers from Mosaic into various Latin American markets are

heard flat with last week at $375pt fob Tampa for end March/April shipment.

Mosaic has repeated this level on 7,000t DAP sold for export to Latin America

for April shipment.

• Data: The latest Department of Commerce figures distributed by TFI

show MAP and MES exports for the period July 2016 – Jan 2017 are up

59% to 1.92m metric tonnes, while those for DAP are down 11% to

937,000t also metric (more in US S&D section, next page).

Tampa DAP/MAP line-up – February (plus MES in combo)*

Vessel Kt Destination Load

KN Forest 48 Australia 2

Nord Savannah 33 Maceio 3

Regalica 15 Colombia 5

Century Venus 12 C America 5

Liberty Island 32 Brazil 10

Oslo Bulk 2 6 C America 12

CS Calvina 27 Mexico 16

Iyo 9 C America 18

Century Venus 7 C America 21

King Island 26 Brazil 23

Ultra Esterhazy 38 Brazil 25

Nord Mykonos 36 Brazil 27

Total 287

US domestic: NOLA DAP has slipped further this week to $325-326pst fob

barge. This coincides with the arrival of two Russian import cargoes at New

Orleans. As per our earlier report, the big 500,000t MAPD, DAP and NPS

import increase so far this fertilizer year means a zero-sum balance in view

of around 600,000t more exports of US MAP and MES in the same period.

NOLA MAP prices are marginally lower at $360-365pst fob barge.

• Historic DAP/MAP spread: One curiosity of the recent pricing action is

that DAP prices have been hit much harder than MAP, opening up an

historic $35-40pt spread to MAP. The situation in any case looked

unusual because over half of the import tonnes landing now and through

late March are MAP. Some see the importance of DAP index pricing



• From P7: (there is no MAP index) as a more

powerful price-driving force than any of the current

market fundamentals.

US import: Phosagro has a further fresh cargo of

45,000t MAP/DAP to the US for early March loading.

This follows an end-February lot shipping on the MV

Josco Runzhou, to make a total 90,000t Russian

material due into NOLA in late March. A similar

volume that loaded in 1H February is now poised to

discharge from the MV Trenta and MV JPO Dorado at

NOLA over the next 10 days.

• Total to date this season: Along with 2 further

panamaxes set to load out of Morocco in 1H

March, total July 2016 – March 2017 imports of

MAP, DAP and enriched NPs to the US will be

around 1.63m tonnes

US internal S&D: The import total above is a massive

500,000t, or 44% increase on the 1.12m tonnes DAP,

MAP and NPs imports for the same period a year.

But, this year a surge in US exports had already seen

exports for the same grades up 630,000t in the same

comparison for the period July-December 2016. Even

with the gradual pull-back in US exports seen in Q1

this year, exports are still likely to be around 500-

550,000t ahead year on year.

• Zero sum: This means there is no net supply gain

from the big import volumes this season. Instead,

these have basically neutralised an

unprecedented export surge as Mosaic seeks

offshore market share for its big surge in MES

production.

• Going forward: This therefore tees up a little-

changed local S&D for concentrated

phosphates going into another big crop-plant year

2017-18. The details of this will be apparent in

USDA’s first big planted acreage intentions report

at the end of this month.

250

280

310

340

370

400

430

460

490

520

550

$p

t m

etr

ic &

sh

ort

Brazil MAP & NOLA DAP : Q1 rally comparison 2016 vs 2017

Series3

Series5

MAP pt cfr Brazil

DAP pst fob NOLA

The current Brazil MAP surge has gone from $320 cfr to $398 cfr, much sharper than the Q1 2016 ramp upUS import arrivals (the latest from Russia) triggger a decline at NOLA



Latin America Brazil: The first signal of OCP price caution has

emerged this week with reports of 40-50,000t

Moroccan MAP sold in the mid high $390s pt cfr – flat

with last done. This comes after Brazilian imports of

Russian MAP have already reached $403-405pt cfr

• From the US: Mosaic looks to be continuing with

its small-volume shipment program to its Brazil

system, sending various handy-size lots to

numerous ports in the NE and South. The Tampa

program to Brazil is starting March with a 23,000t

MES, MAP combination to Aratu.

Argentina: Profertil has been back in the market

taking 30-35,000t of YUC 11-52 at $410 pt cfr,

reckoned to be the first time Chinese export 11-52 has

achieved parity with Atlantic origins in this market.

Central America: Incofe is heard to have settled a

minor lot of Chinese DAP at $386-387 pt cfr

Guatemala. The buyer was also shown Chinese 10-50

MAP at $364-365 pt cfr, and for MAP 11-44 at around

$318pt cfr. These are in handy-size combination

shipments with N products. The price levels are in line

with Chinese DAP export demands around $370pt fob

China (more below), and as such, are competitive with

Tampa material.

Phosphoric acid India: Following our report last week on a Q2 deal for

Moroccan acid at around $590pt P2O5 cfr India. This

has now become the market price for Q2, and heard

repeated now heard done for US material. The Q2

acid price above gives a cash cost for local acid-route

DAP production at $400pt cfr equivalent.

• No. 1 subsidy-determining factor: This Q2 acid

settlement was one of 3 issues earlier standing in

the way of an Indian subsidy posting, and news

on retail price caps. The two others are an

ongoing election in the key farming (and DAP-

using) state of Uttar Pradesh, and scope for

outside market turbulence on forex markets after

next week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve

on US interest rates.

Industry news Local press reports have emerged reporting that the

Mississippi Phosphates Environmental Trust - which

has been managing the site of the former DAP plant -

has become insolvent. This is having spent its full

initial value of $12m and a further $500,000 given by

the State of Mississippi’s Pollution Emergency Fund.

Detail: From 11 February this year, the US

government Environmental Protection Agency has

assumed temporary control of wastewater treatment

operations at the former MissPhos facility. Currently,

waste-water treatment is occurring at a rate of

approximately 2 million gallons per day. These actions

are being taken in coordination with the Mississippi

Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ). The

plant produced DAP for around 60 years up to

December 2014 after closing under Chapter 11

bankruptcy protection, leaving more than 700 millions

of acidic, contaminated waste-water.

Since DAP production ceased at MPC, EPA Region

4, the U.S. Department of Justice and MDEQ have

worked with multiple parties to negotiate a sale of the

property with the objective of allowing for beneficial

reuse of the facility. The measures taken by EPA will

maintain environmental stability at MPC while

negotiations continue.

PHOSACID MGA $pt P2O5 Q1 ‘17 Q4 ‘16

Morocco fob 495-690 495-695

India cfr 30d (see note) 545-550 580

West Europe cfr 725-770 755-775

Brazil cfr 740-750 740-750

$545-550pt P2O5 cfr India is the final price for Moroccan and

Jordanian acid in Q1 2017; Isolated spot cargoes from Jordan

and Mexico traded in Q1 at $515-525pt P2O5 cfr India, but these

now are likely to be subject to retrospective review

INPUTS (+/- $pt of DAP) Mar (Feb) +/-

Ammonia cfr Tampa 320 (250) +15.6

cfr Morocco 330 (315) +3.4

cfr India 370 (360) +3.4

Sulphur plt cfr Tampa Q1/Q4 75 (69.55) +2.3

cfr N Africa Q1/Q4 85-87 (70) +6.5

spot ex-warehouse China 118 (114) +1.5



PHOSPHATE ROCK $ P2O5 Q1 2017

Morocco fob 31-33% 88-100

China fot 29-31% 53-60

Syria fob 29-30% n.m.

Peru fob 30% 54-70

Algeria fob 29-30% 62-64

Tunisia fob 29-30% n.m.

Egypt fob 30-31% 45-50

Egypt fob 27-28% 40-43

Jordan fob 34-36% 90-95

Togo fob 35-36% 95-110

Russia fob 38-39% 152-155

Russia domestic del ($ equ.) 38-39% 135-145

India cfr 29-30% 54-65

India cfr 33-34% 105-107

NPK, NP $ BULK 9 Mar 2 Mar

16-16-16 fob FSU 270-285 270-285

16-16-16 fob FSU China netbk. n.m. n.m.

10-26-26 fob FSU 295-300 295-300

20-20-0 fob East Europe 275-280 290-300

19-38-0 7S fob Morocco 280-281 280-281

10-26-26 cfr India 305-307 305-307

16-16-16 cfr China 305-310 305-310

9-25-25 cfr NW Europe 320-325 320-325

15-15-15 cfr W Africa 240-245 240-245

16-16-16 cfr SE Asia 330-345 330-345

16-20-0 cfr SE Asia 265-270 275-285

0-30-10 fot ex store Brazil 345-355 345-355

15-15-15 fot ex wks China* 290-300 288-300

15-15-15 (SOP) fot ex wks China 320-325 320-325

25-13-7 fot ex wks N China 265-268 265-268

10-10-20 fot ex wks S China 260-265 260-263

EU NPK, NP (inland €) 9 Mar 2 Mar

15-15-15 cif bulk Benelux 285-305 285-305

17-17-17 cif bulk France 305-310 305-310

0-25-25 cif France 330-340 330-340

8-24-24 del bgd Italy 315-325 315-325

20-10-10 del bgd Italy 315-320 315-320

8-24-8 del bgd Spain 300-310 300-310

20-10-10 del bgd UK £ 260-270 260-270

Speciality NPK, NP+S US$ Feb Jan

MKP fob China 945-960 925-940

MKP fot ex wks (local RMB) 6125-6180 6000-6050

MKP cfr West Europe 1115-1120 1085-1100

MKP cfr Brazil 1075-1090 1040-1050

Tech MAP 12-61-0 cfr EU* 770-785 755-765

UP 17-44 cfr West Europe 650-670 650-660

12-40-0 10S 1Zn fot Florida pst 375-380 353-355

MKP 0-52-34; UP = Urea Phosphate * Low-end Chinese

origin EU duty paid 6.5%

SSP $ BULK 9 Mar 2 Mar

Egypt fob 135-138 135-138

Spain fob ($ equiv) 135-140 135-140

Italy € fot bgd ex store 175-180 175-180

Brazil cfr 163-185 163-185

Brazil fot ex store inland 19-21% 235-243 235-243

Brazil ex-port store 18-21% 195-205 195-205

TSP $ BULK 9 Mar 2 Mar

Morocco fob 285-295 295-300

Tunisia fob 290-298 290-298

Mexico fob 308-310 308-310

China fob 265-285 265-285

Lebanon fob 285-290 285-290

Brazil cfr 295-298 310-315

Benelux. N France $ fob/fot 315-320 315-320

International Prices $/tonne bulk

Profercy Phosphates & NPKs pricing represents last-known spot

or contract sales. In the absence of new trades, competitive

indications will apply; i.e. highest bid in a rising market or lowest

offer in a falling market. Netbacks on contract sales, formula or

otherwise may feature. International quotes are for

4,000 tonne lots & above, rounded up to the nearest US$.

Italics = no recent business; n.m. = no market



DAP $ BULK 9 Mar 2 Mar

Tampa, US Gulf fob 375 375

Simulated net on Brazil, Arg spot* 375-381 375-381

Metric netback from NOLA 354-360 354-360

Netback on Mosaic India system** 338-340 338-340

NOLA fob barge (st) 325-326 330-345

Florida fot (st) 350 350

KSA fob 378-392 378-390

Baltic, Black Sea fob 372-380 372-380

Morocco fob 382-390 382-390

Metric netbk from NOLA 340-342 345-360

Tunisia fob 385-388 385-388

China fob 370-380 370-380

China fot bgd ex wks ($ equiv.) 357-365 357-365

Mexico fob 375-380 375-380

Jordan fob 355-365 355-365

India cfr spot 360-362 360-362

Pakistan cfr 377-379 376-378

Brazil cfr 392-395 392-395

Argentina, Uruguay cfr 408-410 408-410

Benelux, N France fob/fot 415-420 415-420

*Any-origin sales to Brazil, Argentina; *Mosaic India netback is now assessed basis prevailing retail values at Rs21,000 pt, subsidy still at Rs8,945pt; and net internal logistics, costs, taxes, forex

+China export tax at zero on DAP, MAP, NPs & TSP in 2017

MAP $ BULK 9 Mar 2 Mar

Baltic, Black Sea fob 378-382 378-382

Tampa fob 374-375 374-375

NOLA fob barge (st) 360-363 365-370

Morocco fob 384-388 382-388

KSA fob (formula netbk from Brazil) 370-377 370-377

China fob (10-50) 350-355 350-355

China fob (11-44) 305-308 305-308

Brazil cfr (11-52) 395-405 393-405

Brazil fot ex-port store (11-52) 435-460 435-460

Brazil cfr (11-44) 307-310 307-310

Brazil fot ex-store inland 120 d 485-495 485-495

phosphates prices hit plateau; top producers cautious · pdf file · 2017-05-15400...

Documents