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Photovoltaics 2016 -

Markets, Manufacturing and Technology

Dr. Arnulf Jäger-Waldau

AMREN-2 Symposium,

EMRS Spring Meeting 2016,

5 May 2016, Lille, France

Content

• Markets

• PV Manufacturing

• Technology Trends

• Conclusions

2

Markets

Annual PV Power Installations

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e

An

nu

al In

stal

led

PV

Po

we

r [G

Wp

]

Year

Rest of EU

France

United Kingdom

Italy

Germany

Rest of World

China

United States

Japan

Cumulative PV Power

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e

Cu

mu

lati

ve In

stal

led

PV

Po

we

r [G

Wp

]

Year

Rest of EU

France

United Kingdom

Italy

Germany

Rest of World

China

United States

Japan

Uncertainties in Market Statistics Most statistics use nominal DC peak power (Wp) under

standard test conditions (1000 W irradiance and standard nominal 25ºC) for reasons of consistence.

Not all countries report DC peak power (Wp) for solar PV systems, but especially for larger scale system the utility peak AC power, which is relevant for the transmission operator. Even in the EUROSTAT statistics the two capacities are mixed.

Some statistics only count the capacity which is actually connected or commissioned in the respective year for the annual statistics, irrespectively when it was actually installed.

Some countries don't have official statistics on the capacity of solar PV system installations or sales statistics of the relevant components.

Cumulative PV Power in the EU

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016eNREAP

Cu

mu

lati

ve P

ho

tovo

ltaic

Po

wer

[GW

p]

Rest of EU

Greece

United Kingdom

Czech Republic

Belgium

France

Spain

Italy

Germany

Annual Installed PV Power in the EU

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

An

nu

al

Ph

oto

vo

ltaic

In

sta

llati

on

s [

GW

p] Rest of EU

GreeceUnited KingdomCzech RepublicBelgiumFranceSpainItalyGermany

Cumulative Photovoltaic Power in EU

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NREAP 2020N cont.

2020real cont.

2030N cont.

2030real cont.

Cu

mm

ula

tive

Ph

oto

volt

aic

Po

we

r [G

W]

Year

Rest of EU

Greece

United Kingdom

Czech Republic

Belgium

France

Spain

Italy

Germany

Manufacturing

PV cell and thin film production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e

An

nu

al

Pro

du

cti

on

[G

W]

Year

Rest of World

United States

Malaysia

Japan

Europe

Taiwan

PR China

Uncertainties in Production Statistics

Only a limited number of companies report production figures for solar cells or thin film modules.

Shipment figures can include products from stock, already produced in the previous year.

Some companies report shipments of "solar products" without a differentiation between wafers, cells or modules.

The increasing trend towards Original Equipment Manufacturing (OEM) increases the potential of double counts.

Capacity Expanison

Capacity Expansion

Nameplate Capacity End of 2013: ~ 62 GW End of 2014: ~ 88 GW

Operational Capacity End of 2013: ~ 45 GW End of 2014: ~ 66 GW

Announcements 2015 c-Si cells: ~ 15 GW Thin films: ~ 5.1 GW Integrated cell/module: ~ 7.1 GW

Capacity Expansion

Technology (in order of announced MWs)

• PERC • "standard c-Si technology" • CdTe • CIGS • HJ • Bifacial

Capacity Expansion

Where are the new plants build (top 5 in order of announced MWs)

• India • South Korea • China • Thailand • Malaysia

Technology Trends

Thin Films

Commercial CdTe modules Q1/2012 (12.4%) Q1/2016 (16.2%) +30.6%

Commercial CIGS modules 2010: between 7 and 11% 2015: between 12 and 15.1%

Commercial silicon tf modules 2010: between 5 and 8% 2015: between 5 and 11%

Crystalline Silicon

Polysilicon Siemens Process 2014: 65–120 kWh/kg FBR 2014: 20– 30 kWh/kg

Power Output per Wafer mc : 2011 (4.02W) 2014(4.33W) +7.7% mono : 2011 (4.27W) 2014(4.63W) +8.4%

Polysilicon consumption of wafers mc : 2011 (5.92g) 2014 (5.00g) –15.5% mono : 2011 (5.71g) 2014 (4.52g) –20.8 %

Crystalline Silicon

Average Cell Efficiency mc : 2012 (17.0%) 2014(17.8%) +4.7% mono: 2012 (18.6%) 2014(19.4%) +4.3%

Average Module Efficiency (no ARC) mc : 2012 (15.1%) 2014(15.7%) +4.0% mono: 2012 (15.6%) 2014(16.4%) +5.1%

Average Module Efficiency (ARC) mc : 2012 (15.4%) 2014(16.0%) +3.9% mono: 2012 (15.8%) 2014(16.7%) +5.7%

Crystalline Silicon

Emerging Production Technologies • Passivated Emitter Rear Cells (PERC) • 4 and 5 busbar solar cells (4BB, 5BB) • Heterojunction Solar Cells • Bifacial Solar Cells

Possible Efficiency Gain • PERC: 4-5% relative, 0.7 – 1.0% absolute • 4BB: about 0.3% absolute

Conclusions

Conclusions

• PV technology has made significant progress. In all technologies the progress has been greater than predicted in various roadmaps.

• Further material reduction per Wp ongoing.

• PV cell and thin film capacity still larger than demand, but no longer completely disconnected.

• Shift of PV production.

23

Thank you for your attention!