photovoltaics in the developing world

Pergamon 0360-5442(95)00118-2

Energy Vol. 21, No. 5, pp. 385-394, 1996 Copyright © 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0360-5442/96 $15.00 + 0.00

P H O T O V O L T A I C S I N T H E D E V E L O P I N G W O R L D

I. CHAMBOULEYRON Instituto de Fisica Gleb Wataghin, Universidade Estadual de Campinas-UNICAMP, P.O, Box 6165,

13083-970 Campinas, S.P., Brazil

(Received 10 July 1995)

Abstract--We discuss the use of photovoltaic systems in the developing world and the problems hindering their widespread use. Three countries are considered when referring to Latin America, namely, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. They each have different approaches to the dissemination of stand-alone PV power. Brazil relies entirely on the free market. Mexico has launched one of the world's largest rural electrification programs under the jurisdiction of the public electric utility. In Argentina, the approach combines a government policy and decisive intervention by the private sector. An official PV policy is essential for the successful implementation of photovoltaics in developing countries. The role of regional centers for the dissemination of solar technologies is discussed.

1. INTRODUCTION

During the past several decades, a large variety of PV systems have been installed in the Third World. Their uses include telecommunications, charging batteries, refrigeration, water pumping, cathodic pro- tection, fence electrifications, automatic signaling, to name the most common applications. During the 1970s and 1980s, most of the systems were installed as demonstration units, generally donated by international aid agencies or through help-to-poor programs of advanced countries. The few efforts made to build PV-powered rural grids failed as a result of system unreliabilities, lack of administrative experience and other non-technical issues. In a number of developing countries, there now exists a private market for photovoltaic systems, including lighting, battery charging, and power for fans, radio, TV, and video. There is a consensus that the implementation of PV power to satisfy the basic energy needs of the poor of the world, who are generally not connected to the distribution network, will be difficult to achieve.

The largest developing countries manufacture different components for solar electricity systems. India, China and Brazil dominate the market from wafer production to complete systems. Sri Lanka, Argentina and Mexico assemble PV panels with imported solar cells. Most countries, however, rely fully on ready-made systems. It is not our purpose here to present a complete account of PV activities in the developing world. The developing world is highly heterogeneous in its social, economic and cultural characteristics, as well as in the energy policies adopted by governments with different political philosophies. An abundant literature exists in specialized journals and in proceedings of international PV conferences on the successes and failures of PV power around the world.

Why is the highly convenient PV technology not used in places where it is the most convenient energy solution? Brazil, Mexico and Argentina have not only the largest economies in Latin America but also represent different approaches to the dissemination of stand-alone PV power in the developing world. The Brazilian PV private market is a free enterprise without intervention by major utilities or the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy. The lack of a supportive public policy has resulted in the development of a small private market. Mexico, on the other hand, has launched one of the world's largest rural electrification programs under the aegis of the major Mexican electric utility. This program has high priority in the government. The Mexican utility accepts the value of PVs as a cost-effective and reliable power source and installs PV systems wherever they are competitive. In Argentina, there is support from the government with decisive intervention of the private sector. The objective is to develop a good private market. The only action of the Argentine Secretary of Energy is to prepare business units that may develop into concessions for electricity supply to areas not covered by the grid. This approach should lead to a very large PV market. The final section of this paper deals with estab-

385

386 I. Chambouleyron

lishing regional centers which, according to the philosophy of successful International Agricultural Research Centers, may constitute an important trust for dissemination of photovoltaics.

2. ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT

The amount of energy required per capita to foster or maintain development depends on the existing systems, local resources, the social and economic model chosen by a country, and other factors. 1 Most countries now rely on local or imported fossil-fuel to supply a large fraction of their commercial energy needs, although it became clear after the oil crisis that supply disruption, either for political reasons or resource exhaustion, was likely to develop in the future.

Energy-consumption levels corresponding to various levels of development have been estimated by Cook. 2 The consumption rate ranges from a minimum of 2000 kcai/day (i.e. the energy content of a primitive man's daily diet) to around 200,000 kcal/day. Figure 1, adapted from Cook's estimation, shows energy consumption corresponding to different stages of development. Many regions of the world still have energy consumption-levels corresponding to primitive stages of human society. Most developing countries have a highly uneven geographical distribution of per capita energy consumption, which is not apparent in the averages displayed in Fig. 1. In nearly all Third World countries, this uneven energy consumption is the result of the existance of relatively large industrial or urban centers amid poor and backward rural regions. This energy deficiency not only refers to transportation, lighting and home comfort, but often includes a calamitous lack of drinking water and food for millions of human beings who suffer from illiteracy, disease and isolation. In many developing countries, this tragic situation is also present in the suburbs of large urban centers. However, rural areas generally lack energy to a greater extent than cities. 3 When speaking of energy needs, we refer to man's use of specific energy sources external to him which allow satisfaction of either direct energy needs (caloric, mechanical, electric) or indirect needs, such as the energy content of goods and services necessary for subsistence and development? In this paper on PV in developing countries, we refer mainly to the direct energy needs of the population.

TECHNOLOGICAL MAN

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100 DEVELOPING WORLD IDUSTRIAL

i ° ADVANCED j

1 106

~ I.IUNTING MAN

~ FARLY MAN

MAN

l o l o l o lo l o PAST ~ TIME (years) --- PRESENT

Fig. 1. Daily per capita energy consumption as calculated by Cook 2 for six stages of human development. Early man used only the energy of the food he ate. The. controlled use of fire by hunting man added about 5000 kcal/day. Primitive agriculture incorporates crop and animal energy. The use of water and windmills are incorporated in advanced agriculture (Europe, around 1400 A.D.). Industrial man had the steam engine and technological man electricity and internal combustion engines. The developing world is represented by the

dotted area.

Photovoltaics in the developing world 387

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Fig. 2. Per capita electricity consumption for different countries of the world vs a human development index (HDI, United Nations). There is near saturation of the HDI for electric energy consumption at about 3000 kWh.

The line has been drawn as a guide for the eye. Source for electricity consumption: OECD data.

Electricity plays a major role in economic development. Figure 2 shows the per capita annual consumption of electrictiy vs a human development index 5 including three essential elements of human life, namely, longevity, literacy and per capita income, properly adjusted for local purchasing-power factor. A correlation exists between both variables although a saturation occurs at a consumption level of around 2000-3000 kWh/yr.

Which role may solar electricity play in the developing world? Figure 3 shows the physical quality of life index (PQLI) vs energy consumption. 6'7 The PQLI focuses on three measures of well being: infant mortality rate, life expectancy, and literacy. These indicators are assumed to reflect the most basic desire of people: to live longer with better health and opportunity. The PQLI consolidates these three, ranked from 1 to 100, into a composite index on the basis of the countries of the world having the worst and the best performance. All other countries are ranked accordingly. A clear correlation exists between the PQLI and energy consumption, the most striking fact being the sharp rise in PQLI as energy consumption increases from its lowest values. The benefits are more than proportional in the low consumption side of the curve, an indication of the kind of impact any extra energy may have on the living conditions of the poor. The maximum affordable price of electricity at this side of the PQLI curve is certainly higher than that of the advanced countries, because of the increased return of the generated kWh in terms of human well being and productivity.

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Fig. 3. Daily per capita consumption of energy vs the physical quality of life index.


3. COUNTRY STUDIES AND A NEW INITIATIVE

Numerous papers have been published in recent years on the dissemination of PV systems in different countries or regions of the Third World.t These contributions include figures on installed power capacity and preferred configurations, as well as, in some cases, a critical assessment of their performance. The present paper does not intend to update these studies but to address the important question of the strategy (lato sensu) of PV power use. With this idea in mind I have selected a few examples referring to the dissemination of PVs in the biggest countries of Latin America: Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. These are representative of different philosophies concerning the use of PV. The discussion is comp- lemented with the consideration of a new initiative aimed at the fostering of the widespread use of solar technologies in the Third World.

3.1. Photovoltaics in Brazil

Brazil is a vast country with an area of around 8 million km 2. An enormous number of villages, rural settlements and farms are not connected to the electric grid. Nearly 35 million people live in the countryside where solar radiation exceeds 5 kWh/day. PV electricity could be used as a privileged source to pump water, and to power classrooms, vaccine refrigerators, street and domestic lights, rural telephone lines, producing an important impact on the quality of life of the rural poor. Despite the above, the use of PV systems in rural Brazil is marginal. An attempt will be made to disclose the very many barriers which hinder the widespread use of stand-alone PV systems in rural Brazil.

3.1.1. Local expertise, energy policy, and economic constraints. A reasonable amount of local R&D and industrial capacity has been developed in Brazil, the total investment amounting to several million US dollars. However, up to now the country has failed to establish any kind of global policy related to the use of PVs in stand alone applications. Economic constraints do not seem to have been the major problem for the dissemination of PV. Despite the unfavourable economic situation, and frequent economic and political crises in the last two decades, energy matters have always received governmental attention. Several attempts to establish a Brazilian solar program have been made in the last decade but they were never given a high priority.

An important barrier for the widespread use of PV in Brazil, and in many developing countries, is related to the social structure of the country. Life expectancy is much lower than in developed countries. Most of the Brazilian poor live in large cities where they have access to conventional energy sources, however, their basic housing, medical, and educational needs are often not fulfilled. In other words, the most urgent problems of a very large sector of the population are not of an energy nature. Govern- ment priority generally focusses on the cities at the expense of rural communities, for economic, social and political reasons. In the long term, however, the lack of basic modern comforts in the countryside will certainly contribute to increasing rural migration to large cities, worsening the overall picture.

The main customer of solar systems in Brazil is, and will continue to be, the public sector (communications). The Brazilian PV private market is small and basically depends on communication systems (TV and radio links). It is the opinion of the author that a clear political will, in the sense of providng the rural Brazilian poor with their basic electricity needs, is necessary to increase the PV business. A market study made on two Northeastern states indicates that big opportunities for decentralized power exist# Figure 4 shows one of the main findings of this market study. The figure indicates the competitiveness limit of PV power vs grid extension for the conditions prevailing in Northeast Brazil. The calculation assumes 20 $/Wp installed and $5000/km of extended grid. It is clear from Fig. 4 that Brazil, having a very small population density over most of its territory, should consider PVs in a more systematic way. Very recently, renewed interest in PV has appeared. Representatives of some Brazilian electric utilities and research groups started discussing the key issues of renewable energy. Their aim is twofold, on the one hand to share their experience on development projects and to study the social impacts of PV power in small villages. On the other hand, the group tries to call the attention of policy makers to the convenience of renewable energy solutions for many of the far-from-the-grid potential users. Some projects, which are essentially based on donations of PV modules, have been undertaken. 9

tSee, for example, the proceedings of the most recent international conferences on photovoltaic solar energy conversion sponsored by the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE-USA), the European Union and Japan.


0

$0

10

$

PHOTOVOLTAICS /

G R I D E X T E N S I O N

i I I I $0 100 500 1000 $000

D E M A N D (kWh/month)

Fig. 4. Competitiveness limit between PVs and grid extension for an isolated consumer in a demand vs dis- tance-to-the-grid plot. Conditions prevailing in northeast Brazil have been assumed, i.e. $20/Wp installed and

$5000/km of extended grid.

Summarizing, the dissemination of PV systems is hindered by well known constraints: the price of the solar kWh, the high initial investment required, and the low price of fossil-fuels. Besides those barriers, Brazil faces other more serious constraints, i,e. its social structure, the economic and political instabilities, the lack of trained manpower, and the lack of an appropriate commercialization and maintenance network. Last but not least, Brazil has failed up to now to develop the political will, and the corresponding commitment at the highest official level, to run a program on direct solar energy conversion to assist the population living in isolated regions of the country.

3.2. New sources of energy in Mexicot

The electric utility and the oil derived fuels networks are state owned in Mexico. Conventional energy has been largely subsidized in recent decades, a situation representing an extra barrier to the dissemination of renewables. The electric utility grid feeds 90% of the population. The remaining Mexicans, some 8.2 million people, live in 80,000 small villages. Most of these villages, as frequently found in Third World countries, represent low electric loads and are spread over large areas far from the grid. The situation led the Mexican government to launch a program to provide the villagers with a reasonable infrastructure which includes electric power for the most basic needs. PRONASOL (an acronym for Programa Nacional de Solidaridad), as the program is called, is a complement to the rural electrification programs of the public utility and installs, across the country, small hydro, wind and PV generators in different settlements not included in the short-term plans of grid extension. Today over 13,000 small PV systems for lighting individual houses have been installed.

3.2.1. The Mexican approach to rural PV. The prerequisites for a successful program were ident- ified first and correspond with what we have previously called the political will: (a) a commitment at a very high level to work toward the satisfaction of the basic electric needs of the poorest Mexicans; (b) the allocation of a corresponding budget for such a purpose; and (c) the determination to use renewables as the basis of the program.

The determination to use renewable energy for rural electrification in an oil exporting country is based on the assumption of proven reliability. Thus, ensuring the sustainability of the systems has been the first consideration taken into account which led the program's managers to start installing individual home PV illumination systems. Such systems include one PV module ( -50 W), one car-type battery, one electric charge controller, and several fluorescent lamps, not exceeding a total power of 60 W. Later on larger village-sized systems were installed. Implementation of this program includes the follow- ing steps: (a) community identification (small and disperse, far from the grid, and other social, economic and political criteria which, in some cases, may take precedence). (b) System promotion because poten-

tThe analysis of the use of PV in rural Mexico has been extracted from "Renewable Energy Systems in Mexico", by A. M. Martinez, J. M. Huacuz, and M. Bauer, in Ref. 10.

£EY 21:5-D


tial users know nothing about PV (the systems must be wanted by the users). One of the most effective ways of promotion is the installation of one or two sample systems in a community. (c) Once potential users are convinced that they want a PV system, they may make a formal request through their local government. They commit themselves to look after the system, to make good use of it, and to contribute toward its cost or installation according to their means. (d) Approved petitions are developed into engineering projects (only for the more complex projects) which have to comply with technical specifications. (e) The technically approved projects are normally offered as integral packages including system design, construction and commissioning, infrastructure and user training. (f) Once completed, the systems are monitored and their performance is compared with the original technical specifications. Deficiencies must be corrected by the contractor before he receives the final payment.

How is the operation being financed? There are two types of financing: (a) productive uses (agro- industrial and similar applications) and (b) quality of life improvements for basic electricity needs. Projects aimed at productive purposes must show economic viability in order to obtain funding which comes in the form of loans under preferential terms and conditions. Specific financial schemes have been developed by Mexican banks. Projects falling in the category of power for basic needs are supported by government grants. Federal money amounts to 50% of the total project cost. The State government provides 30%, while the remaining 20% comes from a combined effort of the local community and the individual user. The last share varies according to the economic capability and may be contributed with local construction materials, labor or equipment transportation. In either case the community has to develop internal financial mechanisms, such as the creation of a revolving fund, for purposes of operation, repair and maintenance of the systems and for future expansion of the generating capacity.

3.2.2. Problems and perspectives. The PV industry is in its infancy in Mexico. Although most balance-of-system components are locally manufactured, modules are largely imported. PRONASOL has fueled the PV market, today increasing at a rapid pace. A number of problems have surfaced along the program. Among the important ones is the fact that for some companies, quality and reliability seem to be less important concepts than the number of systems sold. For larger systems turn-key projects are sometimes preferred, which leave little room for technology-user interaction. These limitations are certainly not unique to the Mexican case and have plagued the whole developing world. The Mexican program includes a series of actions to overcome such limitations: creation of awareness of the fragility of the market, technology transfer from foreign companies to Mexican industries, development of stan- dards and technical specifications, and technical support to new PV industries.

Other problems have been detected in the technology-user interaction. The Mexican scheme of rural electrification is a complex process involving utilities and government bodies on the supply end, and the users on the demand side. In between there are industries, regulatory bodies, financing institutions, and so forth. According to Mexican specialists, such a complex interaction threatens the sustainability of PV as a viable option more than cost, efficiency, or other purely technological issues. The key issue in the dynamics of the interaction is the weakest link, i.e. the user, whose attitude determines the success or the failure of the program. He is not an object but the one who defines the uses to be given to solar electricity and must understand the very special characteristics of PV power. He should also play a role in operating and maintaining the system. Other critical implementation factors include the promotion and installation of the systems, which require skillful technicians not easily available in developing countries.

In spite of the above mentioned problems, the overall balance is highly positive. In order to reinforce the program a strategy, contemplating both the supply and the demand sides should be strengthened. The reinforcement of local institutions and industries is a priority of the program, together with the promotion of commercial and marketing activities. On the demand side, the consumption patterns of the regions and their projections should be considered, as well as the social, cultural and environmental aspects. PRONASOL is considered a successful development program.

3.3. Photovoltaics in Argentina'~

Argentina is also a relatively highly electrified developing country. However, a significant fraction of the population of Argentina, roughly 10% living in the rural areas, has no access to electricity. Moreover, a considerable amount of public services in the countryside, like schools, first aid dispens-

tThe author is indepted to A. Fabris, Secretaria de Energia, Buenos Aires, Argentina, for fruitful discussions and for documents used in writing this section.


aries, potable water stations, police stations, etc., are not electrified. Figure 5 indicates the present and near future coverage of the grid in Argentina. The electrified area spreads essentially over the pampas

where most of the Argentines live. It is important to note that the most optimistic scenario of grid extension, as shown in Fig. 5, will leave more than 2 million people without access to electricity because of purely economic and technical reasons. This is because these rural settlements are geographically isolated, many times by difficult physical barriers, and represent very small electric loads to the distribution network. The same analysis applies to most of the essential public services just mentioned. A recent census indicates that approximately 3500 rural schools do not have any kind of energy supply.

The depicted situation indicates that in situ electric generation is the only economic solution to satisfy the energy needs of these isolated populations and services. Recent data of rural Argentina show that 80-90% of all the energy consumed goes to food preparation, freely collected wood being used for such a purpose. The needs of lighting are normally satisfied using kerosene lamps, candles, as well as dry cells and acid batteries. People with a TV set use lead acid batteries. The largest fraction of the money spent on electricity by rural people goes to dry cells and battery recharging. The expense is, in

BOLIVIA

PARAGUAY

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BRA,~IL

URUGUAY

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I

GRID-CONNECTED

NON-ELECTRI~'I ~:l

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Fig. 5. The electrified area of Argentina is shown. Only the region corresponding to the pampas is well covered by the grid. The Northern, Western and, especially, the Southern (Patagonia) regions of the country are much less well covered because large fractions of these regions are less favorable from an economic perspective. Future availability of electricity may permit important economic activities. Most people living in the areas not

covered by the electric grid (around 3 million people) do not have access to electricity.


most cases, higher than that of connected-to-the-grid inhabitants of similar income. The data also show that, in order to obtain such small amounts of electricity, the rural families are disposed to make a considerable economic effort, an indication of the importance attributed to electricity in their ordinary life. This electric power can be generated in situ with the use of photovoltaic systems. Wind generators are not viable in Northern and Western Argentina because of the lack of a convenient wind regime, and diesel generators are not preferred because of maintenance problems and because of the need for a frequent provision of fuel. A considerable experience with PV generators exists in Argentina. They have proven to be reliable under the most varied circumstances.

3.3.1. The approach. The above considerations led the Argentine government to conclude that some kind of off-grid electric service should be offered to the disperse population. The accent put on the word service is to emphasize that electricity is to be supplied in a permanent way. This is the opposite to the philosophy of "donations" of generation equipment (conventional or not) to the population who afterwards is responsible for its operation and maintenance. The last scheme, except in a very few occasions, has not been successful in Argentina. It has to be remembered at this point that, up to a few years ago the whole electric sector was privatized in the country. The policy change is a revolution in Argentina, where the provision of electricity was traditionally considered a governmental responsibility.

Within the new electric policy, the foreseen scenario for PV power includes private companies fur- nishing the electric service (in some cases linked to the potable water service) to dispersed dwellings and villages having less than 500 inhabitants, who are going to pay for the service. The generation and operation costs of the delivered solar PV kWh will not be translated as such to the electric tariff. They will be partially absorbed by the Argentine government through two (already existing) taxes paid by grid-connected consumers called Electric Development Fund and Compensatory Fund for Final Con- sumers of Electricity. The private company, which may also be a cooperative of consumers or a foun- dation, must comply with a series of regulations intended to protect the customer. The service is to be offered in specific and predetermined regions of variable economic size. Once the conditions for the concession of the electric service in a region are established, an auction for bids is made and the concession given to the best offer. An electric energy regulatory office is created to mediate between interested parts in case of conflict. The initial investment is the entire responsibility of the grantee company who receives the concession for a relatively long period of time. Let us now consider an example.

3.3.2. The disperse electric market in the province of Catamarca. The present and foreseen electric coverage of the province of Catamarca is shown in Fig. 6. A significant fraction of the population has no electricity. A previous study shows that today a decentralized electric market in the province includes 6000 families and 277 public services of a varied nature: 120 public schools, 37 first aid posts, 30

l~l UI~I -.P.d.,l~,Ik., .It .Vd.~

Fig. 6. Present and near future electric coverage in the province of Catamarca. Catamarca is one of the poorest provinces of Northwestern Argentina.


police stations, 40 community potable water systems, and 50 other public services. This constitutes a business unit requiring an initial investment of US $7 million (assuming an investment of 15 $/Wp installed), the concession lasting for 15 years. The annual return rate, estimated from the invested capital and the cash flow is 25%. The minimum monthly tariff to be paid by consumers is 10 dollars and the price of the consumed kWh is $3, a tariff more than sufficient to cover the investment and maintenance costs. The minimum tariff corresponds in Catamarca to the energy delivered by a small PV module and suffices for a few hours/day electric lighting and some TV entertainment. The subsidy, coming from the governmental taxes, is 1 S/kWh and goes directly to the electric company. There is an additional per capita subsidy of 50 dollars/year. It has been estimated that, within a couple of years, the system may satisfy the basic needs of the disperse population with a simultaneous appropriate maintenance service. Moreover, job opportunities will be generated.

3.3.3. The national program. The program described in the above example should be extended to the whole country. Feasibility studies show that the satisfaction of the basic needs of most off-grid people, 1.1 million in the northern region, 0.2 million in the west, and 80,000 people in Patagonia, constitutes an important PV market in Argentina. The corresponding investment amounts to 314 million dollars, out of which the public sector contributes 100 million. This national PV program should be completed in 5 years.

Summarizing, Argentina has selected an approach which, although not fully based in the free market economy laws and mechanisms, includes the contribution of the private sector. While contributing to the satisfaction of the energy needs of the poorest, the program, as imagined, is also good business. It is also clear that a purely free market approach will never end in a PV program like this. A political will, like that of the Secretary of Energy, is necessary to give initial momentum to a decentralized energy program.

3.4. Centers of excellence for the dissemination of photovoltaics{ 3.4.1. Introduction. It is at present well recognized that the main obstacles to the widespread use

of PV are more in deficient energy policies, market development, mass production and financing, than in technological development, although PV technology continues to advance at a rapid pace. Demon- stration and pilot projects in developing countries have had little or no impact on bringing renewable energy into widespread use, although renewable energy technologies are now proven, reliable, environ- mentally benign, and cost-effective engineering solutions for the supply of energy in many circumstances, this being particularly true in the case of PVs. This situation led to the creation of new schemes to speed-up the widespread use of new and renewable sources of energy (NRSE) technology in the developing world. As particularly promising appears the implementation of regional centers which, much with the same philosophy as the International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR), may constitute an important thrust to the use of PV electricity.

3.4.2. Tasks. Regional Centers should perform research, dissemination and training directly related to NRSE and of high priority in terms of resource development, technological readiness, and economic competitiveness that are not adequately implemented by existing institutions.

(1) Research: the research activities proposed at the Centers concern essentially strategic, applied and adaptive research, primarily with the purpose of strengthening regional scientific and technologic capabilities rather than advancing the state of the art.

(2) Dissemination: among energy planners, decision makers and the general public, an insufficient understanding of renewable energy technology and its potential for application continues to be a serious barrier to its widespread use. But, even the best performing and most relevant renewable energy systems cannot be expected to take hold if they do not offer attractive economic and financial returns or where the policy environment is as inhospitable as it is in many developing countries. Newly established Regional Centers should undertake: (a) economic studies of the current and potential costs and benefits of renewable energy systems aiming at the identification of the leading technologies and applications; (b) policy studies to identify artificial barriers to the use of renewable energy technologies and rec- ommend corrective measures; and (c) the preparation of complete packages, tailored to the needs and markets of particular countries and regions, and covering sales, training, installation, maintenance and

tThis section has been extracted from "Network of Centers of Excellence on New and Renewable Sources of Energy", by 1. Chambouleyron and R. Dosik, in Ref. 10.


repair, of NRSE systems. The emphasis should be on commercializing these systems through existing market mechanisms wherever possible.

(3) Training: strongly coupled with the above activities, training programs should be planned and performed at different levels. The research activities performed at each Center will provide opportunities for training scientists and engineers at an international level. International workshops of 2-3 weeks typical duration should be organized around specific sources of energy or technology. It has been detected that one of the major barriers to the dissemination of the renewable energy technology is the lack of well-trained people to advertise the technology, to install the systems and to guarantee technical maintenance and repair. This problem is of concern to the NRSE Centers. The same philosophy applies to the training of economists and other specialists in dissemination programs and projects. As a complement to the above, seminars and conferences on relevant NRSE subjects should be organized at the Centers and in the countries of the region. The importance of the different training programs at the Centers cannot be overemphasized.

4. PERSPECTIVES AND CONCLUSIONS

The general overview presented in this work indicates that there is a very large potential market for PVs in the developing world. The forces of the free market economy, or just the dynamic equilibrium between supply and demand, have been unable to develop such a market in a consistent way. The case studies here discussed, as well as the development of PVs in other big developing countries, like India and China, indicate that an official commitment with the use of new and renewable sources of energy, at the highest possible level, is a necessary condition for the establishment of solid markets. The driving force for the dissemination of solar electricity may be of a public or private nature, or both. Past experience shows that most of the isolated people of developing countries are willing to pay for a few kWh which may considerably improve their quality of life. These enormous markets are still to be harvested.

Finally, the possibility of establishing new institutions which may help in creating a reasonable understanding of the use of renewable energy has been discussed. These Centers, of a regional nature, may contribute in a decisive way in developing a general awareness of the benefits derived from new energy technologies. In particular, they may help energy planners of developing countries to include renewables into the countries' energy policy. With a clear political will to improve the living conditions of the whole population through the benefits of modern technology the era of solar energy technology will have met the conditions for a successful start in the developing world.

Acknowledgements--The author is indebted to R. Dagnino and A. Furtado, Department of Science and Technology Policy, Instituto de Geoci~ncias, UNICAMP, for critical readings of the manuscript.

REFERENCES

1. R. Hill, I. Chambouleyron, and E. Omeljanovsky, eds., "Prospects for Photovoltaics: Commercialization, Mass Production and Application for Development", Advanced Technology Assessment System (ATAS), Vol. 8, United Nations Publications, New York, NY (1992).

2. E. Cook, Scient. Am. 9, 133 (1971). 3. I. Chambouleyron, Sol. Energy 36, 381 (1986). 4. V. Bravo, G. G. Mendoza, J. Legisa, C. Suarez, and I. Zyngierman, "A First Approach to Defining Basic

Energy Needs", United Nations University, Japan, UNUP-454 (1983). 5. Human Development Report, United Nations Development Programme, Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, U.K.

(1990). 6. P. F. Palmedo, R. Nathans, E. Bearsworth, and S. Hale, "Energy Needs, Uses and Resources in Developing

Countries and the Implications for U.S. Assistance", Brookhaven National Laboratory Development Country Energy Program, Vol. 1, Stony Brook, U.S.A. (1978).

7. I. Chambouleyron, in Energy and the Environment into the 1990s, pp. 205-213, Vol. 1, A. A. Sayigh, ed., Pergamon Press, London (1990).

8. I. Charnbouleyron, R. Dagnino, A. Muller, H. Mitlag, C. Maciel, G. Biasoto, and O. Frick, Proc. 1st Photovol- taic Science and Engineering Conf., pp. 493-497, Nippon Press Center, Tokyo (1984).

9. R. Ebisch, "National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Review", pp. 2-4 (Spring 1995). 10. Colloquium on "Renewable Energy for Environment and Development", Castel Gandolfo, Rome, Italy (6-8

December 1993).

photovoltaics in the developing world

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