physicaland)economic)effects)of) distributedpvgenerationon...
TRANSCRIPT
Physical and Economic Effects of Distributed PV Generation on California’s Distribution System
i4Energy and Berkeley Energy and Climate Institute Energy Research Symposium
September 17, 2013
Michael A. Cohen (presenter), Paul A. Kauzmann & Duncan S. Callaway Energy and Resources Group, UC Berkeley
http://www.pge.com/mybusiness/edusafety/systemworks/electric/currentgrid/ 2
Net metering: * Setting aside externalities and market transformation goals, paying
rooftop PV generators retail rather than wholesale rates appears to be a subsidy, because it allows these customers to benefit from the power grid while paying less (or nothing) for it.
* But could PV have other benefits for the distribution system that would justify some of this “subsidy”?
* Or could PV actually have negative effects on the system (e.g. voltage fluctuations) that make net metering even more of an overvaluation than it initially appears?
Motivation
3
1. The energy value of PV appears to be far larger in magnitude than any economic effect that it has on the distribution system.
2. The capacity investment deferral benefit appears to be smaller but potentially meaningful; necessary modeling assumptions lead to uncertainty.
3. Other effects we examined appear to be very small, but we were not able to assign an economic value to all areas of concern with the available data.
Key Findings
4
The Method
5
Physical Results
Economic ResultsPost-processing
Energy value
Value of capacity deferral
Value of avoided/added maintenance
Locational Marginal Price
(LMP) of energy [CAISO]
Regulator maintenance
budget [PG&E]
GridLAB-D
Energy use
Peak load
Transformer loss of
insulation life[IEEE Std. C57.91]
Regulator operations/current dutyModel runs
Vary: • Location
(weather)• PV penetration
PV production
data [SolarCity]
"Taxonomy feeders" for CA[PNNL]
Current loading of feeders and projected load growth [PG&E]
Inputs Outputs
Weather data
[NREL/LBNL] Voltage
profiles Voltages out of ANSI standard
Changes in transformer lifetime
Incidence of reverse power flow
Feeder R1-12.47-1 Scale: 1in = 200.0ft Created by Michael A. Cohen ([email protected]) using glm2dot.rb version 0.1 on Thu Feb 23 21:19:36 -0800 2012
cap1
cap2
cap3
load1
load2
load3
load4
load5
load6
load7
load8
load9
load10
load11
load12
load13
load14
load15
load16
load17
load18load19
load20
meter1
meter2
meter3
meter4meter5
meter6
meter7
meter8
meter9
meter10
meter11
meter12
meter13
meter14
meter15
meter16
meter17
meter18
meter19
meter20
meter21
node613
node1
node270
node271
node2
node3
node21
tn554
tn555tn556
node4
node25
node5
node6
tn548
tn549
tn550
node28node7
node29
node8
node9
tn542
tn543tn544
node10
tn545
tn546tn547
node11
node31
node12
node13
node34
node14 node38
node15
node16
tn535
tn536tn537
node17
tn538
tn539tn540
node18
node43
node20node19
node47
node22
node23
tn510
node24
tn486
tn471
node26tn551
tn552tn553
node27tn506
tn507
node30
tn562
node32
node33
node35
node36
node37
node40
node39tn564
node41
tn508
node42
tn501
tn492
node44
tn498tn499
tn500
node128
node45
node127
node130
tn482
node46 tn480
node48
tn532tn533
tn534
node49
node50
tn526tn527
tn528
node53
node51
node52
tn529
tn530 tn531
node54
node55
tn523
tn524
tn525
tn561
tn560
node56
tn514
tn515
tn516
node57
tn517
tn518tn519
node58
node60
tn520
tn521tn522
tn541
node59tn509
node61
tn511tn512
tn513
node62
node79 node68
node63
tn502
tn503
tn504
node69node64
tn494
tn495tn496
node70
node65tn487
tn488
tn489
node66
tn477tn478
tn479
node67
tn472tn473
tn474
node72
node74tn462tn463
tn464
tn505
tn493
tn485
node71
tn481
node73
tn468
tn470
node78
node75
node76tn451
tn452
tn453 node77
tn444
tn445
tn446
node404
tn461
node80node84
node81
tn557tn558
tn559
node82
tn565tn566
tn567
node86node85
node83
node88
tn573
tn574tn575
tn563
tn570
tn568
node87
tn569
node91
node106
node89node93
node90
node97
node611
node92
tn577
tn576
tn582
node94 tn587
node95
node96
tn584
node98
tn592
node99
node100
tn593
node101
tn594
node102
node103node105
node104
tn589
tn596
node107
tn578
node108
node116
node109
node110
tn586
node111
node112
node115
tn591
node113
node114
tn595
tn598
tn597
node117
tn580
node119node118
node120
tn585
tn571
node121
tn579
node125
node122
node123
tn583
node124tn588
tn590
tn581
node126tn572
tn484
node129
tn475
node131
tn465
tn466tn467
node134
tn455 tn456
tn457
node132
node133
tn428
tn429
tn430
node141
node139
node135tn448
node137
node136
tn454
tn449
node138
tn460
node140
tn407tn408
tn409
node163node167
node174
node142
tn431
node143
tn432
node144
tn434
node145
tn433
node146
tn435
node147
tn436
node149
node148
tn437
node151
node150tn450
node158
node152
tn406
node153
tn410
tn420node154
node162
node159
node155
node156
tn416
node157
tn422
tn439
tn405
node160
tn415
node161
tn427
node164
node165
node166
tn400
node168
tn401
node170
node169
node171
tn399
tn411
node172
tn398
node173
tn396
node182
node176
node175
tn384
tn385 tn386
node205
node202
tn379
tn380tn381
node177
tn394
node178
tn395
node179
tn397
node180
node609
tn392tn390
node181
tn391
node185
node183
tn421
node186
node184
tn443
node189
tn447
tn423
node187
tn440
node188
tn441
tn442
node190
node191
tn458
node193
node192
tn469
node195
tn483
node199
node194
tn476
node197
node196tn491
node198 node200
tn490
tn459
tn497
node201
node203 tn353
tn354tn355
node208
node204
node215
tn317
tn318tn319
node206tn382
node207
tn383
node212
tn346
node209
node210
tn347
node211
tn349
node213
node214
tn350
tn348
tn320
tn368
node216
node218
tn298tn299
tn300
node217
tn276
tn277
tn278
node334
node227
node535
node219
node223node220
tn297
node221tn316
node222
tn301
tn274
node224
tn270
node225
tn292
node226
tn328
node228
node229
tn247tn248
tn249
node232
node230
node610
tn279
node231tn289 tn195
node233 node237
node234
tn258tn259
tn260
node240
node326
node268
node235
node236
tn211
node239
node238
tn210
tn205
node241
node242node243
node244
node249
node246
node245
node248
node247tn303
node250
node260node257
node264
node252
node251node256
tn325
tn314
node253
tn315
node254tn340
node255
tn351
tn345
tn334
node258tn331
node259
tn330
node261
tn343
node262
tn333
node263
tn344
node265
tn332
node266tn327
node267
node269
node273
node272
node325
node316
node312
node306
node295
node303
node289
node285
node274
node275
node276tn284
node277
node280
node278tn291
node279tn290
node281
node282
node283tn296
node284
tn312
node288
node286node287
node615
tn254
tn251
node290
node291
node294
node293
node614
tn252
node292
tn212
tn196
tn197
tn198
tn186
tn271
node296
tn281
node297
node299
tn269
node298tn273
tn285
node300
tn268
node301
node302
node304
node305tn305
node307tn250
node308
tn185node309
tn157
node310
tn139
node311
tn140
tn263node313
node315
node323
node314tn262
node317
node324
tn209
node318
tn207
node319
tn166
node320tn149
node321
node322tn116
node327
tn204
tn174
node328
tn144
node329
node330
tn241tn242tn243
node335
node331
tn238tn239tn240
node332
node337
node333tn267 tn280
tn244tn245
tn246
node336tn206
node338
tn235
tn236 tn237
node347node339
node340
tn216
node341
tn232
tn233
tn234
node342
tn226 tn227
tn228
node354
node343
tn229
tn230
tn231
node344
node345
tn223
tn224tn225
node358
node346node410
node359
node360
node353
node348
tn265 node352
node349
tn275
node350
tn286
node351
tn308
tn307
tn283
tn266
node355tn203node356
node357tn194
tn190
tn162
node419
node420
node361node365
node362node363node364
tn293
tn294
tn295
node367 tn309
tn310
tn311
node366node616
tn322
tn323tn324
node368
node370
node371
node369
node389
tn357
tn358
tn359
tn335
node372
node380
node373
tn337
node374
tn336
node381
node375
tn339
node376
tn338
node377
node383
node378
tn342
node379
tn341
tn321
tn352
tn329
node382
tn306
node384
tn360
node385
node387
tn361
node386tn369
node388tn365
tn356
node390tn362
tn363
tn364
node391
node394tn370
tn371tn372
node392
node393node396
tn376tn377tn378
node395
tn366
tn367
node397
tn373
node398
tn375
tn374
node399tn387
tn388tn389
node400
tn402
tn403
tn404
node401
tn412
tn413
tn414
node402node403
node405
tn424
tn425
tn426
node408
node406
tn417
node407
tn419
tn418
node409
tn438
node411
node412 node413
tn178 node414tn161
node415
tn145
node416
tn138
node417
tn126
node418
tn118
tn101
node421node423
node422
tn214
node434
node433
node424tn264
node425
tn272
node427
node426tn287 node430
node429
tn304
node428
tn288
tn282
tn302
node431
tn313
tn326
node432tn253
node437node435
node436
tn187
tn188tn189
node458
tn182tn183
tn184node439
node438
tn217
tn218
tn219
tn261
node440
tn220 tn221
tn222
node441
node442 node444node443
tn213
tn215
node445
tn200
tn201
tn202
node446
node451
node447
node448
tn170
node449tn155
node450
tn150
node452
tn171
tn172
tn173
node453
tn167
tn168
tn169
node454
tn163 tn164
tn165
node455
tn158
tn159
tn160
node456
tn152tn153
tn154
node457tn130
tn131
tn132
node459
tn146
tn147
tn148
node460
tn134tn135 tn136
node461
tn123
tn124tn125
node466
node462
node463
tn102
tn103
tn104
node464
tn86
tn87tn88
node465
tn73
tn74
tn75
node474
tn51tn52
tn53
node467
node468
tn115
node470
node469tn117
node471
tn99
node472
tn91
node473
tn81
tn62
node477
node480
node475
node478
node476
node479
node503
tn34
tn59
node481node482tn37
node483
tn58
node484
node485
tn68
tn67
node487
node486
node489
tn84
node488 tn71
node495
tn83
node490
tn90
node492
node491
tn94
node493
tn109
tn96
node494
tn114
tn127
node496
tn89
node498
node497
node499
tn98
tn93
node500
tn110
node501tn112
node502
tn119
tn143
node511
node504
node505
tn28
node506
tn22
node507
tn20
node508
tn16
node510
node509tn26
tn14
node512
tn33
node513
node514
tn36
node515
tn41
node518
node516
node517
tn40
node520node528
tn44
tn61
node519tn79
node521
tn43
node526
tn39
node522
node524node523
tn46
tn45
node525
tn35
tn42
node527
tn50
node529
tn60
node530
tn82
node531node532
tn97node534
node533tn128
tn133
node536
node537
node538 tn208node543node539
tn191tn192
tn193
node541node540
tn175
tn176tn177
node545
node546
tn179
node542tn180
node544
tn199
tn181
node548
node556node547
node558
node550
node549
tn141
tn142
node551
tn120
tn121
tn122
node555node552
node553
node559
node554
tn113
tn111
tn129tn151
node557
tn156
tn137
node563
node560
node569
node566
node561node567
node562 tn76
tn77tn78
node574
node576
tn63
tn64
tn65
tn100
node564
tn106
node565
tn107
tn85
tn70
node568
tn72
node570
tn92
node571
tn95
node572
tn105
node573
tn108
node575tn69
node577
node590
node578
node584
node579
tn54
node580
tn55
node581
node582
tn47
tn66
node583
tn48
tn49
node585
tn57
node586
tn56
node587
node588
node589
tn38
tn80
node591
tn30
tn31
tn32
node592tn23
tn24 tn25
node593tn17
tn18tn19
node594
tn10
tn11
tn12
node595
tn7
tn8tn9
node596node599node597
node598
node604
tn6
tn5
node600tn4
node601
tn3node602tn2
node603tn1
tn13
node605tn21
node606tn29
node607
tn27
node608
tn15
tn393
tn255
tn256tn257
node612
node617
tm1tn599
tm2
tn600
tm3
tn601
tm4
tn602tm5
tn603
tm6
tn604
tm7
tn605
tm8
tn606
tm9
tn607
tm10
tn608
tm11
tn609
tm12tn610
tm13
tn611
tm14
tn612
tm15
tn613
tm16
tn614
tm17
tn615
tm18
tn616 tm19
tn617
tm20tn618
tm21
tn619
tm22tn620
tm23
tn621
tm24
tn622
tm25
tn623
tm26
tn624
tm27
tn625
tm28tn626
tm29
tn627
tm30tn628
tm31
tn629
tm32
tn630
tm33tn631
tm34 tn632
tm35tn633
tm36
tn634
tm37tn635
tm38
tn636
tm39tn637
tm40 tn638
tm41
tn639
tm42
tn640
tm43
tn641
tm44
tn642
tm45tn643
tm46
tn644
tm47tn645
tm48
tn646tm49tn647
tm50
tn648
tm51tn649
tm52
tn650tm53tn651
tm54
tn652
tm55
tn653
tm56
tn654
tm57
tn655
tm58tn656
tm59tn657
tm60tn658
tm61 tn659
tm62tn660
tm63
tn661
tm64tn662
tm65
tn663
tm66
tn664
tm67
tn665
tm68
tn666
tm69
tn667
tm70
tn668
tm71
tn669
tm72tn670
tm73
tn671
tm74
tn672
tm75tn673
tm76
tn674
tm77
tn675
tm78
tn676
tm79tn677
tm80tn678
tm81tn679
tm82
tn680
tm83
tn681
tm84tn682
tm85tn683
tm86tn684
tm87tn685
tm88tn686
tm89
tn687
tm90tn688
tm91
tn689
tm92
tn690
tm93tn691
tm94
tn692
tm95
tn693
tm96
tn694
tm97
tn695
tm98
tn696
tm99 tn697
tm100
tn698
tm101tn699
tm102tn700
tm103tn701
tm104tn702
tm105tn703
tm106
tn704
tm107
tn705
tm108
tn706
tm109
tn707
tm110tn708
tm111
tn709
tm112
tn710
tm113
tn711
tm114
tn712
tm115tn713
tm116tn714
tm117tn715
tm118tn716
tm119
tn717
tm120
tn718tm121
tn719
tm122
tn720
tm123tn721
tm124
tn722
tm125
tn723
tm126
tn724
tm127
tn725
tm128
tn726
tm129
tn727
tm130tn728
tm131
tn729
tm132
tn730
tm133
tn731
tm134tn732
tm135
tn733
tm136tn734
tm137
tn735
tm138
tn736
tm139
tn737
tm140tn738
tm141
tn739
tm142
tn740
tm143
tn741
tm144
tn742
tm145tn743
tm146tn744
tm147tn745
tm148tn746
tm149
tn747
tm150
tn748
tm151
tn749
tm152
tn750
tm153
tn751
tm154
tn752
tm155
tn753
tm156
tn754
tm157
tn755
tm158tn756
tm159tn757
tm160tn758
tm161tn759
tm162 tn760
tm163
tn761
tm164
tn762
tm165
tn763
tm166
tn764
tm167
tn765tm168
tn766
tm169tn767
tm170
tn768
tm171
tn769
tm172
tn770
tm173
tn771
tm174
tn772
tm175
tn773
tm176
tn774
tm177
tn775
tm178tn776
tm179
tn777
tm180
tn778
tm181
tn779
tm182tn780
tm183
tn781
tm184
tn782
tm185
tn783
tm186tn784
tm187
tn785
tm188
tn786
tm189tn787
tm190 tn788
tm191
tn789
tm192
tn790
tm193
tn791
tm194 tn792
tm195
tn793
tm196tn794
tm197
tn795
tm198
tn796
tm199
tn797
tm200 tn798
tm201tn799
tm202
tn800
tm203tn801
tm204tn802
tm205
tn803
tm206 tn804
tm207
tn805
tm208
tn806
tm209
tn807
tm210
tn808
tm211
tn809
tm212tn810
tm213
tn811
tm214
tn812
tm215
tn813
tm216tn814
tm217tn815
tm218
tn816
tm219
tn817
tm220
tn818
tm221tn819
tm222tn820
tm223
tn821tm224tn822
tm225tn823
tm226tn824
tm227tn825tm228
tn826
tm229tn827
tm230 tn828
tm231tn829
tm232 tn830tm233
tn831
tm234tn832
tm235
tn833tm236tn834
tm237 tn835
tm238tn836
tm239 tn837
tm240
tn838
tm241
tn839tm242
tn840 tm243 tn841
tm244
tn842 tm245tn843
tm246
tn844
tm247
tn845
tm248
tn846 tm249
tn847
tm250
tn848
tm251tn849
tm252tn850
tm253tn851
tm254tn852
tm255
tn853
tm256
tn854
tm257tn855
tm258
tn856
tm259
tn857
tm260
tn858
tm261
tn859
tm262
tn860
tm263
tn861
tm264tn862
tm265tn863
tm266 tn864
tm267tn865
tm268
tn866
tm269
tn867
tm270tn868
tm271
tn869
tm272tn870
tm273tn871
tm274
tn872
tm275tn873
tm276
tn874tm277tn875
tm278
tn876
tm279tn877
tm280tn878
tm281
tn879
tm282tn880
tm283tn881
tm284
tn882
tm285
tn883
tm286
tn884
tm287
tn885
tm288tn886
tm289
tn887
tm290
tn888
tm291
tn889
tm292
tn890
tm293tn891
tm294
tn892
tm295
tn893
tm296
tn894
tm297tn895
tm298
tn896
tm299 tn897
tm300tn898
tm301tn899
tm302tn900
tm303
tn901
tm304tn902
tm305tn903
tm306
tn904
tm307
tn905
tm308tn906
tm309
tn907
tm310tn908
tm311
tn909
tm312
tn910
tm313
tn911
tm314
tn912
tm315
tn913
tm316
tn914
tm317tn915
tm318
tn916tm319
tn917
tm320
tn918
tm321 tn919
tm322
tn920
tm323tn921
tm324
tn922
tm325
tn923
tm326tn924
tm327
tn925
tm328tn926
tm329tn927
tm330
tn928
tm331tn929
tm332
tn930
tm333tn931
tm334
tn932
tm335
tn933
tm336
tn934
tm337
tn935
tm338tn936
tm339tn937
tm340
tn938
tm341
tn939
tm342
tn940
tm343
tn941
tm344tn942
tm345
tn943
tm346tn944
tm347
tn945
tm348
tn946
tm349
tn947
tm350tn948
tm351
tn949
tm352tn950
tm353tn951
tm354
tn952
tm355tn953
tm356
tn954
tm357tn955
tm358
tn956
tm359
tn957
tm360tn958
tm361tn959
tm362
tn960tm363
tn961
tm364
tn962
tm365tn963
tm366
tn964
tm367
tn965
tm368
tn966
tm369tn967
tm370
tn968
tm371
tn969
tm372
tn970
tm373
tn971
tm374tn972
tm375
tn973
tm376
tn974
tm377tn975
tm378
tn976
tm379
tn977
tm380
tn978
tm381tn979
tm382
tn980
tm383
tn981
tm384tn982
tm385
tn983
tm386
tn984
tm387
tn985
tm388
tn986tm389
tn987
tm390
tn988
tm391tn989
tm392
tn990
tm393tn991
tm394
tn992
tm395tn993
tm396
tn994
tm397tn995
tm398
tn996
tm399tn997
tm400
tn998
tm401tn999
tm402
tn1000
tm403
tn1001
tm404tn1002
tm405
tn1003
tm406
tn1004
tm407tn1005
tm408
tn1006
tm409tn1007
tm410
tn1008
tm411
tn1009
tm412
tn1010
tm413
tn1011
tm414
tn1012
tm415
tn1013
tm416
tn1014
tm417
tn1015
tm418
tn1016
tm419
tn1017
tm420
tn1018
tm421
tn1019
tm422 tn1020
tm423
tn1021
tm424
tn1022
tm425
tn1023
tm426
tn1024
tm427tn1025
tm428
tn1026
tm429tn1027
tm430
tn1028
tm431tn1029
tm432
tn1030
tm433
tn1031
tm434
tn1032
tm435
tn1033
tm436tn1034
tm437tn1035
tm438
tn1036
tm439tn1037
tm440
tn1038
tm441
tn1039
tm442tn1040
tm443
tn1041
tm444
tn1042
tm445
tn1043
tm446
tn1044
tm447
tn1045
tm448
tn1046
tm449
tn1047
tm450
tn1048
tm451
tn1049
tm452
tn1050
tm453 tn1051
tm454tn1052
tm455
tn1053tm456
tn1054
tm457tn1055
tm458tn1056
tm459
tn1057
tm460
tn1058
tm461
tn1059
tm462
tn1060
tm463
tn1061
tm464tn1062
tm465
tn1063
tm466
tn1064
tm467
tn1065
tm468
tn1066
tm469tn1067
tm470
tn1068
tm471tn1069
tm472
tn1070tm473
tn1071
tm474
tn1072
tm475
tn1073
tm476tn1074
tm477
tn1075
tm478
tn1076
tm479
tn1077
tm480
tn1078
tm481
tn1079
tm482
tn1080
tm483tn1081
tm484
tn1082
tm485
tn1083
tm486tn1084
tm487
tn1085
tm488
tn1086
tm489
tn1087
tm490
tn1088
tm491
tn1089
tm492
tn1090
tm493
tn1091
tm494
tn1092
tm495
tn1093
tm496
tn1094
tm497
tn1095
tm498
tn1096tm499
tn1097
tm500tn1098
tm501
tn1099
tm502
tn1100
tm503
tn1101
tm504
tn1102
tm505
tn1103
tm506 tn1104
tm507
tn1105
tm508
tn1106
tm509tn1107
tm510tn1108
tm511tn1109
tm512
tn1110
tm513
tn1111
tm514tn1112
tm515tn1113
tm516
tn1114
tm517tn1115
tm518tn1116
tm519tn1117
tm520tn1118
tm521
tn1119
tm522
tn1120
tm523
tn1121
tm524tn1122
tm525
tn1123
tm526
tn1124
tm527
tn1125tm528
tn1126
tm529 tn1127
tm530
tn1128tm531
tn1129
tm532 tn1130
tm533tn1131
tm534tn1132
tm535
tn1133
tm536
tn1134
tm537
tn1135
tm538
tn1136
tm539
tn1137
tm540
tn1138
tm541 tn1139
tm542
tn1140
tm543
tn1141
tm544
tn1142
tm545
tn1143
tm546
tn1144
tm547 tn1145
tm548 tn1146
tm549
tn1147
tm550
tn1148
tm551tn1149
tm552
tn1150
tm553 tn1151
tm554 tn1152
tm555
tn1153
tm556tn1154
tm557tn1155
tm558
tn1156tm559tn1157
tm560
tn1158
tm561tn1159
tm562
tn1160
tm563tn1161
tm564tn1162
tm565
tn1163
tm566tn1164
tm567tn1165
tm568tn1166
tm569
tn1167
tm570tn1168
tm571
tn1169
tm572tn1170
tm573tn1171 tm574
tn1172
tm575tn1173
tm576
tn1174
tm577tn1175
tm578
tn1176
tm579 tn1177
tm580
tn1178
tm581
tn1179
tm582
tn1180
tm583
tn1181
tm584
tn1182
tm585 tn1183
tm586tn1184
tm587
tn1185
tm588
tn1186
tm589
tn1187
tm590tn1188
tm591
tn1189
tm592
tn1190
tm593tn1191
tm594
tn1192
tm595
tn1193
tm596
tn1194
tm597
tn1195
tm598
tn1196
A Hypothetical Geography
6
Triplex Load
Triplex Meter
Simplex Load
Simplex Meter
FuseTransformer
Overhead Line
Switch
Underground LinePlain triplex node
Capacitor Bank
RecloserRegulator
Load
Meter
FuseTransformer
Overhead Line
Switch
Underground LinePlain triplex node
Capacitor Bank RecloserRegulator
7
Selecting PV Sites
8
PV/Meter Matching
9
The Method (2)
10
Physical Results
Economic ResultsPost-processing
Energy value
Value of capacity deferral
Value of avoided/added maintenance
Locational Marginal Price
(LMP) of energy [CAISO]
Regulator maintenance
budget [PG&E]
GridLAB-D
Energy use
Peak load
Transformer loss of
insulation life[IEEE Std. C57.91]
Regulator operations/current dutyModel runs
Vary: • Location
(weather)• PV penetration
PV production
data [SolarCity]
"Taxonomy feeders" for CA[PNNL]
Current loading of feeders and projected load growth [PG&E]
Inputs Outputs
Weather data
[NREL/LBNL] Voltage
profiles Voltages out of ANSI standard
Changes in transformer lifetime
Incidence of reverse power flow
(During Sept 2011 – Sept 2012, based on a weighted average of feeders and climates designed to approximate PG&E’s service territory.)
3.5¢/kWh
This is about 18% higher than the average weighted LMP of 2.97¢/kWh, illustrating that PV power has advantages in terms of timing and reduction of distribution system losses.
11
Energy Value of PV
12
Peak Load Reduction
!
!!
!
!!
!
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 15% 30% 50% 75% 100%PV Penetration
Nor
mal
ized
Peak
Loa
d
feeder!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
R1−12.47−1R1−12.47−2R1−12.47−3R1−12.47−4R1−25.00−1R3−12.47−1R3−12.47−2R3−12.47−3
region
!
BerkeleyLos AngelesSacramento
Based on some comparison of simulated and real real load shapes, it is probably optimistic to extrapolate Berkeley and Sacramento results to all of CA, although benefits that large (and larger) will probably materialize at some feeders.
Black shapes with dotted lines show means for each region (climate)
Capacity Benefit Scenarios
13
14
10 Year Capacity Benefit
When we levelize this (disregarding the most extreme deployment trajectories) we get values in the range of 0.26 – 0.69¢/kWh, or about 7 – 20% of the energy value, with the largest levelized capacity benefit at lower penetrations.
$0
$200
$400
$600
15% 30% 50% 75% 100%PV Penetration
NPV
of C
apac
ity B
enef
it (M
illion
s of
201
2 $)
PV deploymenttrajectory
All in Y1LinearLate ramp 1Late ramp 2Late ramp 3All in Y10
15
Voltage Regulator Operation
PV can affect tap change frequency, but the economic effects are small because overall regulator expenditures are relatively small (~$1.4M in 2012).
! !!
! !!
!
! ! ! !
!
!
!
5
6
7
8
0% 15% 30% 50% 75% 100%PV Penetration
Tap
Cha
nge
Cou
nt (T
hous
ands
)feeder!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
R1−12.47−1R1−12.47−2R1−12.47−3R1−12.47−4R1−25.00−1R3−12.47−1R3−12.47−2R3−12.47−3
region
!
BerkeleyLos AngelesSacramento
16
Voltage Regulator Operation
! ! ! ! !!
!
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0% 15% 30% 50% 75% 100%PV Penetration
Volta
ge R
eadi
ngs
Out
side
ANSI
Sta
ndar
d Ra
nge
feeder!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
R1−12.47−1R1−12.47−2R1−12.47−3R1−12.47−4R1−25.00−1R3−12.47−1R3−12.47−2R3−12.47−3
region
!
BerkeleyLos AngelesSacramento
Voltages outside ANSI standard range are rare in all simulated scenarios. Sometimes PV causes a small increase; at other times it could be beneficial if voltages tend to be low.
1. Based on its ability to reduce losses and defer capacity investments, (and the apparently small/uncommon negative effects) it seems justified to value PV energy at more than the wholesale rate.
2. The value of PV’s advantages is relatively small compared to the wholesale cost of energy, and of themselves they wouldn’t justify valuing PV at the full retail rate.
3. The exact value of PV estimated here is highly uncertain due to modeling limitations; in particular we believe more work on California-‐specific load models would be helpful.
Conclusions
17
This work was supported by the California Solar Initiative RD&D program and Robert Bosch LLC through its Bosch Energy Research Network program.
The following organizations and individuals provided invaluable data and/or insight; they do not necessarily endorse any findings described in this presentation.
PG&E: John Carruthers, Donovan Currey & Matt Heling PNNL: Jason Fuller and the GridLAB-‐D engineering team SolarCity: Eric Carlson, Justin Chebahtah & Karthik Varadarajan UC Berkeley Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF): Kevin Koy CIEE: Lloyd Cibulka, Alexandra (Sascha) von Meier UC Berkeley: Dan Arnold, Josiah Johnston, James Nelson, Ciaran Roberts, Michaelangelo Tabone and Shuyu (Simon) Yang LBNL: Emma Stewart
18
Thank You
19
A Caveat Regarding Load Profiles
! !
!! ! ! ! ! !
!
!
!
!
!!
!!! ! ! !
!
!
!
! !
!
!! !
!
!
!
!
!
!! ! ! ! !! ! ! !!
!
!
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Norm
alized LoadN
ormalized PV Power
0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00Hour Beginning (PPT)
Example day is Aug. 13, 2012, CAISO’s 2012 system peak day. Green circles are CAISO system load, blue circles are PG&E.