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Brett C. Singer Vi H. Rapp Craig Wray Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Presented to Building America Stakeholders Meeting March 1-2, 2012 Physics and Statistics of Combustion Safety

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Page 1: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Brett C. SingerVi H. RappCraig Wray

Environmental Energy Technologies DivisionLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Presented to

Building America Stakeholders Meeting

March 1-2, 2012

Physics and Statistics of Combustion Safety

Page 2: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet.

Da Dt pLoss Dp Db

2008 ASHRAE Handbook – HVAC Systems and Equipment, Chapter 34

Page 3: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Da Dt pLoss Dp Db

Theoretical Draft

Flow Losses

Depressurization Boost

Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet.

Page 4: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Available draft can be broken down into several physical processes

Da Dt pLoss Dp

Page 5: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Da Dt pLoss DpBurner

Size

ApplianceEfficiency

VentDimension

Weather

Vent Location &

Material

Available draft can be broken down into several physical processes

Page 6: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Available draft can be broken down into several physical processes

Da Dt pLoss DpBurner

Size

ApplianceEfficiency

VentDimension

Weather

Vent Location &

Material

HeatOutputRate

Page 7: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Available draft can be broken down into several physical processes

Da Dt pLoss DpBurner

Size

ApplianceEfficiency

VentDimension

Weather

Vent Location &

Material

Buoyancy

Page 8: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Available draft can be broken down into several physical processes

Da Dt pLoss DpBurner

Size

ApplianceEfficiency

VentDimension

Weather

Vent Location &

Material

HeatLoss

Page 9: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Available draft can be broken down into several physical processes

Da Dt pLoss DpVent

Material

VentDesign (Bends)

BirdNest

Page 10: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Available draft can be broken down into several physical processes

Da Dt pLoss DpExhaust

Fans

CAZ Location

Envelope Tightness

Other Appliances

UsagePatterns

Page 11: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Available draft can be broken down into several physical processes

Da Dt pLoss Dp

Weather

Exhaust Fans

CAZ Location

Envelope Tightness

Other Appliances

UsagePatterns

Page 12: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Short term tests include some of the physical processes impacting draft

Test Physical ProcessesHouse depressurizationtest with pre-set criteriaDowndrafting test (Worst-Case Depressurization)Backdrafting test (Downdrafting test + Operation)Cold vent establishment pressure (CVEP) test

Page 13: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Short term tests include some of the physical processes impacting draft

Test Physical ProcessesHouse depressurizationtest with pre-set criteriaDowndrafting test (Worst-Case Depressurization)Backdrafting test (Downdrafting test + Operation)Cold vent establishment pressure (CVEP) test

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Page 14: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Short term tests include some of the physical processes impacting draft

Test Physical ProcessesHouse depressurizationtest with pre-set criteriaDowndrafting test (Worst-Case Depressurization)Backdrafting test (Downdrafting test + Operation)Cold vent establishment pressure (CVEP) test

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

CAZ Location

Page 15: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Short term tests include some of the physical processes impacting draft

Test Physical ProcessesHouse depressurizationtest with pre-set criteriaDowndrafting test (Worst-Case Depressurization)Backdrafting test (Downdrafting test + Operation)Cold vent establishment pressure (CVEP) test

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

BirdNest

CAZ Location

CAZ Location

Page 16: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Short term tests include some of the physical processes impacting draft

Test Physical ProcessesHouse depressurizationtest with pre-set criteriaDowndrafting test (Worst-Case Depressurization)Backdrafting test (Downdrafting test + Operation)Cold vent establishment pressure (CVEP) test

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

BirdNest

CAZ Location

CAZ Location

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

BirdNest

CAZ Location

Page 17: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Short term tests include some of the physical processes impacting draft

Test Physical ProcessesHouse depressurizationtest with pre-set criteriaDowndrafting test (Worst-Case Depressurization)Backdrafting test (Downdrafting test + Operation)Cold vent establishment pressure (CVEP) test

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

BirdNest

CAZ Location

CAZ Location

Exhaust Fans

Envelope Tightness

Vent Design

BirdNest

CAZ Location

All tests are impacted by weather at time of test

Page 18: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Continuous tests measure more physical processes but are expensive

Test Advantages DisadvantagesContinuous backdrafting

test

• Measures vent pressure• Measures appliance

status

• Does not measure spillage events.

• Cost

Continuous spillage test

• Measures CO/CO2

• Measures spillage zone Temperature

• Measures appliance status

• Thermal radiation• Cost

Page 19: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Continuous tests measure more physical processes but are expensive

Test Advantages DisadvantagesContinuous backdrafting

test

• Measures vent pressure• Measures appliance

status

• Does not measure spillage events.

• Cost

Continuous spillage test

• Measures CO/CO2

• Measures spillage zone Temperature

• Measures appliance status

• Thermal radiation• Cost

All tests require two visits, require data analysis, and may not capture weather effects

Page 20: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Time dependent parameters can be measured using statistical data

Weather

UsagePatterns

Page 21: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Time dependent parameters can be measured using statistical data

Weather

UsagePatterns

Shielding

Location

Page 22: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Time dependent parameters can be measured using statistical data

Weather

UsagePatterns

Shielding

Location

Meteorological Data

Page 23: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Time dependent parameters can be measured using statistical data

Weather

UsagePatterns

Shielding

Location

Meteorological Data

Number ofResidents

Resident’sAge

Time of Day

Location

Etc...

Page 24: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Time dependent parameters can be measured using statistical data

Weather

UsagePatterns

Shielding

Location

Meteorological Data

StatisticalDistributions

Number ofResidents

Resident’sAge

Time of Day

Location

Etc...

Page 25: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

We can simulate physics to better understand the statistics of failure

PhysicalProcesses

Weather

UsagePatterns

Probability Probability of Failure

Page 26: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

We can simulate physics to better understand the statistics of failure

PhysicalProcesses

Weather

UsagePatterns

Probability Probability of Failure

Appliance and Vent Specs Shielding

LocationTightness, Fans, CAZ

Household Info+ Safe or

Not?

Page 27: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Appliance and Vent Specs Shielding

LocationTightness, Fans, CAZ

Household Info+ Safe or

Not?

Probability Probability of Failure

Goal: Diagnostic Tool

Page 28: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Open Questions

• What is acceptable probability / frequency of spillage? This is a policy question.

• Assess for currently installed (often bad) exhaust fans, or assume what should be there?

• Assess for current occupants, or assume standard or high intensity occupant use patterns?

• Do we need separate measurement of CAZ air tightness – or is envelope tightness good enough?

Page 29: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Extra Slides

Page 30: Physics and Statistics of Combustion SafetyCombustion Safety. Available draft is draft supplied by the vent system at the flue gas outlet. D a D t

Termination location of chimneys and single-wall pipes