pierre j. verlinden - eupvsec · 3 cost of pv modules recent manufacturing cost is comparable for...
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Perspectives for cost decline in the PV industry
EU PVSEC 2016, MunichIEA PVPS Task 1Enhancing PV Competitiveness with Energy StorageJune20th, 2016
Pierre J. Verlinden
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Cost of PV modules
Learning Rates:
c‐Si: 22.8%
CdTe : 16.3%
CIGS : 8.1%
Crystalline Si technologies benefit from standardization (tools and processes) and larger experience (cumulative production)
[1] Kersten et al., 26th EUPVSEC, p4697, 2011.[2] Photon International, 2011‐2014[3] ITRPV 2014, http://www.itrpv.net/[4] Cost data from financial reports of various companies[5] Verlinden et al. 29th EUPVSEC, 2013
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Cost of PV modules
Recent manufacturing cost is comparable for silicon wafer‐based and thin films technologies.
Learning rate (LR) for c‐Si, CdTe and CIGS is 22.8%, 16.3% and 8.1% respectively.
Update 2016:
Crystalline Si < ~ 0.40 $/W
CdTe < ~ 0.50 $/W
0.56 $/W (2014)0.58 $/W
0.76 $/W
Mod
ule
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Cost of PV modules (Projection to 2020)
Recent manufacturing cost is comparable for silicon wafer‐based and thin films technologies.
Learning rate (LR) for c‐Si, CdTeand CIGS is 22.8%, 16.3% and 8.1% respectively.
Assuming 20% annual production growth yields prediction of cost in 2020: 0.64 (CIGS), 0.42 (CdTe) and 0.34 (c‐Si) $/W
Reducing cost (material, labor, Capex, etc.) while improving efficiency is key.
0.34 $/W (2020)
0.42 $/W
0.64 $/W
Mod
ule
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2014 Cost of Multi‐Si Modules is about 12% of 2007 cost
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2011 2012 2013 2014
Multi‐Si Module Manufacturing Cost
Module
Cell
Wafering
Ingot & Casting
Si Cost
…. and still going down at a rate greater than 10% p.a.
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Drivers to cost reduction
Current cost trend ‐12% p.a. The main drivers are: Standardization of the entire supply chain, processes, tools, materials,…
CAPEX– Manufacturing tools made in China
Efficiency improvement– About +5W per year in module power: => cost ‐2% p.a.
Economies of scale, lines running at capacity, ….
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Other drivers
Wafer: Increased size of mc‐Si ingot: G5 => G6 => G7…. Increased quality and yield
Cell: Productivity improvement: batch size, wafer size, …AutomationReduction of Ag usage
Module:Automation Frameless J‐Box, cables, connectors
Packaging
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Conclusions
Learning Curve analysis based on sales price and real manufacturing cost shows that the learning rates of Si, CdTe and CIGS are significantly different (LR: Si > CdTe > CIGS)
Crystalline Si Technology will keep its cost advantage Module efficiency continues to improve (about 2% rel. p.a.) After 2011, cost continued to decrease at a rate > 12% p.a. Silicon feedstock cost reached a “bottom value” Cost reduction rate is similar in every part of the process Main drivers in cost reduction: Standardization of the entire
supply chain, Capex reduction, productivity enhancement, efficiency improvement
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Acknowledgements:• Thanks to all the members of the Crystallization,
Solar Cells and Modules R&D teams at Trina Solar• This work is supported by the National High‐Tech
R&D Program (863 program) of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the P.R. China under project number 2012AA050303.