piketty's capital and inequality of income and wealth · 2018-03-06 · piketty’s historical...
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Piketty’s Capital andInequality of Income and Wealth
Jay Coggins
Department of Applied EconomicsUniversity of Minnesota
January 15, 2015
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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U.S. income distribution, 2011
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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That’s the length of five of these
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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U.S. income distribution, 2011
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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A few important points
I like markets
Some inequality is unavoidable and desirable
The question is, how much is too much?
Economists have no special expertise here. It’s a moralquestion
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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What do people mean by “inequality”?
“There is a relentless decades-long trend that I want to spendsome time talking about today. That is a dangerous andgrowing inequality and lack of upward mobility that hasjeopardized middle-class America’s basic bargain. That if youwork hard, you have a chance to get ahead. I believe this is thedefining challenge of our time.”
–Barack Obama, December 3, 2013
“I fall into the camp that income inequality is the biggestproblem we face.”
–Gina Raimondo, RI governor-elect, December 29, 2014
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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How do economists measure inequality?
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Inc share
A
B
Population share
Lorenz curve (red) showscumulative income sharesGini coefficient is area Adivided by A + BRange is from 0 (perfectequality) to 1 (perfectinequality
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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As inequality falls, Lorenz curve shifts
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Inc share
A
Population share
If income is more equal,Lorenz curve shiftsleftwardAnd Gini coefficient falls asarea A shrinksU.S. Gini is 0.48 as of 2013
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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There are many measures of inequality
Gini coefficient
Atkinson index: 1 −(∑
i y1−εi /N
)1/(1−ε)/µ
Theil index:∑
i
(yiµ · ln yi
µ
)95/50 ratio of thresholds
90/10 ratio of thresholds
Ratio of the mean to median income
Which does Obama have in mind?
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Gini doesn’t show dangerous, growing inequality
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Poverty doesn’t show dangerous, growing inequality
2013 poverty threshold, family of four: $23,707
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Mean income is pulling away from median, slowly
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Gini here and in other rich countries
Source: OECD, 2013, www.oecd.org/social/inequality.htm
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Poverty here and in other rich countries
Source: OECD, 2013, www.oecd.org/social/inequality.htm
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Piketty and Saez changed the conversation
Thomas Piketty Emmanuel SaezParis School of Econ UC-Berkeley
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Other inequality measures based on survey data
Census Bureau’s annual Current Population Survey, or
Federal Reserve’s tri-annual Survey of Consumer Finances
There are serious drawbacks to survey data:
Very hard to get richest to respondSo inequality is understated using survey data
The action really is at the top, for income and wealth alike
P-S innovation: U.S. tax-return data back to 1913
topincomes.g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/
No sign of inequality problem without Piketty-Saez data
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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High inequality means top 1% income share
Source: World Top Incomes Database, topincomes.g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Top income shares, U.S. and other countries
Source: World Top Incomes Database, topincomes.g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Top 1% income share is one point on Lorenz curve
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Inc share
•
}1% share
A
B
Population share
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Top share insensitive to redistribution
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Inc share
•
}
Population share
Blue line equalizes incomeamong 99%Gini shrinks dramatically,but top 1% shareunchangedPiketty-Saez measure isradically differentBut it has come to mean“inequality”
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Piketty’s book is much aboutwealthAnd mostly about top shares“Three facts” from a recentPiketty lecturewww.aeaweb.org/webcasts/
2015/Capital.php
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Piketty’s fact number 1
“In 1900–1910, income inequality was higher in Europe than inthe United States. In 2000–2010, it is a lot higher in the UnitedStates.”
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Top 10% income share, U.S. and Europe
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
30
35
40
45
50
%to
pde
cile
into
tali
ncom
e U.S.Europe
Source: Piketty Capital, 2014, Figure 9-8. (Europe includes Germany, France, U.K., Italy, Sweden)
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Piketty’s fact number 2
“Wealth inequality is always a lot higher than income inequality.”
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Top 10% wealth share, U.S. and Europe
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
60
70
80
90
100
%to
pde
cile
into
tali
ncom
e
U.S.Europe
Source: Piketty Capital, 2014, Figure 10-6
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Top 10% income and wealth shares, U.S.
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
40
60
80
%to
pde
cile
into
tali
ncom
e
U.S. wealthU.S. income
Source: Piketty Capital, 2014
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Piketty’s fact number 3
“Wealth inequality is less extreme today than a century ago,although the total capitalization of private wealth relative tonational income has now recovered from the 1914–1945shocks.”
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Wealth-income ratios, U.S. and Europe
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
300
400
500
600
700
Wea
lth-in
com
era
tios
U.S.Europe
Source: Piketty Capital, 2014, Figure 5-2
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Basics of Capital
α: share of income from capital
β: capital/income ratio
r : rate of return on capital
s: savings rate
g: rate of growth in national income, sum of productivitygrowth and population growth
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Piketty’s “fundamental laws of capitalism”
1. α = r × β
If rate of return is 5% and capital/income ratio is 6, thencapital’s share of income is 30%
2. In the long run, β = s/g
If the savings rate is 12% and growth rate is 2%, thenβ = 6
3. r > g: the “central contradiction of capitalism”
If s fixed and r > g, then α and inequality tend to increase
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Piketty’s historical account in a nutshell
Except for 1910–1950, r > g has been true throughouthistory
Extraordinary inequality has been the resulting norm
r < g during 1910-1950, the wealthy lost, inequality fell
Now r > g again and is likely to remain so indefinitely
Rising inequality will persist into the future unless wedecide to restrain it
Piketty’s preferred solution: internationally harmonizedprogressive tax on capital
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Rate of return and growth rate, 0–2100
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0-1000 1000-1500 1500-1700 1700-1820 1820-1913 1913-1950 1950-2012 2012-2050 2050-2100
Ann
ual r
ate
of re
turn
or r
ate
of g
row
th
The rate of return to capital (after tax and capital losses) fell below the growth rate during the 20th century, and may again surpass it in the 21st century. Sources and series : see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c
Figure 10.10. After tax rate of return vs. growth rate at the world level, from Antiquity until 2100
Pure rate of return to capital (after tax and capital losses)
Growth rate of world output g
Source: T. Piketty, Capital
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Which parts are controversial, and why?
α = r × β is an accounting identity, not controversial
β = s/g is more than that
Holds in the long run, as a “steady state”Piketty treats s as fixed, which is not quite right
Most of the controversy concerns r > g
Can r > g be true over long stretches?If r > g is true, does it lead inevitably to higher inequality?
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Can r > g be true over long stretches?
Intuition suggests no:
If capital grows faster than the economy, capital becomesmore plentifulAs a result, its price r should fall
Standard growth models are not designed to answer thisquestion
Piketty’s data show that r > g is the norm
Many people are racing to answer the question
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Does r > g lead inevitably to higher inequality?
In a Solow growth model, increasing capital automaticallydrives wages up
Tyler Cowen says this is a worker’s paradise
Solow himself in TNR: “This is Piketty’s main point, and hisnew and powerful contribution to an old topic: as long asthe rate of return exceeds the rate of growth, the incomeand wealth of the rich will grow faster than the typicalincome from work.”
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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Piketty’s solution is also controversial
Internationally harmonized progressive tax on capital
Piketty argues that capital is easier to measure than isincome
Greg Mankiw is sure that a tax on capital will hurt workerstoo
Mankiw and others prefer a tax on consumption
Piketty: “A progressive consumption tax is a poorsubstitute for a progressive tax on inheritance and wealth”
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Piketty’s argument against a consumption tax
Piketty: “The biggest problem with a consumption tax isthat the very notion of consumption is not well defined fortop wealth holders. Billionaires consume power andinfluence, not only food and clothes. When the Kochbrothers finance political campaigns, should this beincluded in their personal consumption?”
“Billionaires can consume politicians. They can consumejournalists. Sometimes they consume academics.”
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Piketty’s solution is also controversial
“I see rankings of wealth everywhere in magazines. I don’tsee rankings of consumption. If you want to implement aprogressive consumption tax, this would be a totalitariannightmare, because you have to decide what isconsumption. When Bill Gates takes his private jet to ameeting, is this consumption? Is this investment?”
“A progressive tax on net wealth is more desirable, firstbecause net wealth is easier to define and monitor thanconsumption, and next because it is a better indicator ofthe ability of top wealth holders to pay taxes and contributeto the common good.”
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth
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My favorite assessment of Capital
“The theory that Piketty develops to interpret these data andmake predictions about the future is best viewed as a firstattempt to make sense of the evidence. Much like Marx, Pikettyplays the role of provocateur, forcing us to think about newideas and new possibilities. . . . [T]he extent to which r − g is thefundamental force driving top wealth inequality, both in the pastand in the future, is unclear. But by encouraging us to entertainthese questions and by providing a rich trove of data in which tostudy them, Piketty and his coauthors have made a tremen-dous contribution.”
– Charles Jones, “Pareto and Piketty: The Macroeconomics of TopIncome and Wealth Inequality,” NBER Working Paper 20742,Dec 2014
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Contact information
Jay CogginsUniversity of Minnesota
Ph: 612-625-9732cell: 651-308-1874
email: [email protected]
Jay Coggins Piketty’s Capital and Inequality of Income and Wealth