PLAN FORMULATION FOR HYDROPOWER

IUGLS Plan Formulation Workshop, Jan 13, 2010

Topics

Prices Peaking and ponding model and

assumptions Existing plan results Hydroplan goes bust Next steps and recommendations

Prices Preliminary SVM prices Prices based on hourly Ontario market

data, 2002-2009 Draft report from Synapse gives many

options 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 With or without projected CO2 Price Peak/Off-Peak pattern Broken out for each plant/location

Prices

Synapse, 2030, No CO2 price

Peaking and Ponding

SVM now has Peaking and Ponding module (worksheets ‘P&P1’ and ‘P&P2’)

Power, energy and $ calculation on P&P sheets replace the old monthly calculations, but those are still there for validation and testing

Takes monthly side channel flow, determines peak and off-peak flow, applies peak and off-peak prices to determine value of energy produced

Assumptions U.S. Gov’t: No peaking, no ponding Cloverland

Capacity: 860 cms Minimum: 90 cms in summer, 305 in winter

Brookfield Capacity: 1140 cms Minimum: 250 cms (somewhat arbitrary)

Monthly flow allocation first, then P&P Assume set number of peaking days per

month 5x16 peak period, all other hours are off-

peak

How does it work Calculate how much water is needed for

full peaking If there is enough then

peak flow=capacity Off peak flow set to maintain monthly

allocation If allocation is not enough, either

shorten the peak period to fewer hours or reduce the peak flow (option, I usually assume shorter peak period, but have not tested)

Actual operations are messier and this might overestimate the extent of P&P

Ex: 77A, Feb1902, Hydropower= 1805 cmsCountries split flow evenlyUS Gov’t takes first 405 cms of US share20 peaking days320 peak hours, 352 off-peak

Monthly = 903 cms Full P&P: 1140 cms for 320 hrs 687 cms for 352 hrs

405 cms

Monthly = 498 cms Partial P&P: 860 cms for 233 hrs 305 cms for 439 hrs

Side-channel flows from SVM?

Summary of Plans ResultsSynapse 2030 peak/off-peak prices, No CO2 price

Synapse 2030 peak/off-peak prices, No CO2 price

Building Hydropower Plans Objective: build a plan that targets peak

and off-peak flows to chase electricity prices

Basic strategy Treat peak and off-peak periods separately Try to release capacity during peak periods Release more if Superior is really high, less if

really low Adjust off-peak based on lake level Monthly release is the weighted average of

the two Initial work seemed promising but there were

mistakes

The Rule Curves HydroPlan categorizes Superior level

based on relation to PP monthly percentiles1. Very high (above 80th percentile)2. High (60th to 80th percentile)3. Average (40th to 60th percentile)4. Low (20th to 40th percentile)5. Very Low (below 20th percentile)

The Rule Curve HydroPlan v1.0 set a year type each

December based on the December Lake Superior Level1. Very high (above 80th percentile) – release PP

flows2. High (60th to 80th percentile) –release hydro

capacity3. Average (40th to 60th percentile) – Peak and

Pond 4. Low (20th to 40th percentile) –Peak and Pond

when prices are high5. Very Low (below 20th percentile) – Peak and

Pond when prices are high

Lesson #1 Assumed we could target pretty low off-

peak flow, around 900 cms Results in monthly flow of about 1620

cms Because of allocation rules, this limits

peaking and ponding at Cloverland Minimum flows for full peaking:

Winter ~ 2070 cms Summer – 1840 cms

Or should we question the allocation rules?

HydroPlan results

They’re bad

Let’s look at two decent plans:Bal3 and PreProjectUsing Synapse prices without CO2 Price

…with CO2 price

The Key is “Spill” (flow in excess of plant capacity)

The Key is “Spill” (flow in excess of plant capacity)

The Key is “Spill” (flow in excess of plant capacity)

Conclusions

Key values for full peaking Winter 2070 cms Summer 1840 cms

Try to release at least those amounts as often as possible

Try to avoid more than about 2450 cms Forecasting may be important to decide

when to increase above 2070/1840 (this is essentially increasing off-peak flow) to avoid high Superior levels