Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro“Brazilian Power Sector Planning”

Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPEInternational Colloquium

“Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power

Developments”

“Metodologias de Avaliação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade: A Experiência Internacional na

Expansão do Sistema Eletroenergético”.Recife, PEJuly 15th, 2009

Energy Planning in Brazil

HYDROELECTRIC PREDOMINANCE

LONG TRANSMISSION LINES

INTENSIVE CAPITAL

LONG TERM INVESTMENTS

HIGH INCERTANTIES

MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES

COMPLEMENTARY GENERATION

SEASONALITY

Brazilian Power Sector Planning

RISK ANALYSIS

FAIR TARIFF

DIVERSITY

INTEGRATION

ENERGY SECURITY

NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING

NATIONA ENERGY OUTLOOK

TEN YEARS ENERGY PLANNING

AUCTIONS

Crude Oil and Natural Gas

Electric PowerTransmission

Biodiesel

PROGRAMMING VIEW

SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM STUDIES (10 YEARS AHEAD)

STRATEGY VIEW

LONG TERM STUDIES (30 YEARS AHEAD)

Planning Process

 SOURCES 2005 2015 2030

Large Hydro Power Plants 68.6 99.0 156.3

Thermal Power Plants 16.9 24.3 39.9

Natural Gas 8.7 13.0 21.0

Nuclear 2.0 3.3 7.3

Coal 1.4 2.5 6.0

Other 4.8 5.5 5.5

Alternatives 1.4 5.5 20.3

Small Hydro 1.3 2.3 7.7

Wind - 1.4 4.7

Biomass 0.1 1.8 7.9

Imports + Other 13.6 13.3 8.4

TOTAL 100.5 142.1 224.9

Scenarios for Electricity 2030 (GW)

Source: PNE 2030

Source: Balanço Energético Nacional. EPE, 2006

44.5

13.3

6.0

55.5

86.7

94.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Brazil (2005)

World (2003)

OECDCountries

(2003)

Renewables

Non - renewables

Energy in Brazil – Renewable Sources Share

Energy Integration

NATURAL ENERGY INFLOW (p.u.)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

SUDESTE

SUL

NORDESTE

NORTE

ITAIPU

BELOMONTE

TAPAJÓS

MANAUS

MADEIRA

João Pessoa

Jacui

Porto Alegre

Florianópolis

Curitiba

São Paulo

Rio de Janeiro

Paraíbado Sul

Uruguai

Vitória

BeloHorizonte

Itaipu

Grande

Paranaíba

Paraná/Tietê

Campo Grande

Iguaçu

Tocantins

Belém

São Francisco

Parnaíba

São Luís

Teresina

Fortaleza

Natal

Recife

Maceió

Aracajú

SalvadorCuiabá

Goiânia

Brasília

Paranapanema

Argentina

SE/CO - 190

S - 18

NE - 52N - 12

Source: ONS – oct/2007

Storage Capacity (GWmed)

Storage Capacity Evolution

Maximum Storage / Demand

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

ma

i/08

ma

i/09

ma

i/10

ma

i/11

ma

i/12

ma

i/13

ma

i/14

ma

i/15

ma

i/16

ma

i/17

ma

i/18

ma

i/19

ma

i/20

ma

i/21

ma

i/22

ma

i/23

SUDESTE

SUL

NORDESTE

NORTE

ITAIPU

B.MONTE

TAPAJOS

MANAUS

MADEIRA

4.0

00 k

m4.0

00 k

m

Long Transmission Lines

2008

2012

JirauS.Antônio

Araraquara N.IguaçuAtibaia

Cuiabá

Teles Pires

500 km

Connecting Madeira, Belo Monte and Teles Pires Plants

B.MonteItacaiunas

Manaus

Transmission Lines Distribution

Planned SystemExisting System

Hydro Power Plants

São Francisco River 4317 MW

PA I, II, III

A. SALES

PA IV

Hydro Power Plant Life-Cycle in Brazil

Installing Hydro Power Plants

ENTREPRENEURANEEL

MMEANEELEPE

EPEENTREPRENEUR

INVENTORY STUDIES AND INTEGRATED

ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION

FEASIBILITY STUDIES AND STUDIES ON

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

OPERATION CONSTRUCTIONBASIC PROJECTAUCTION

PRIORLICENSE

INSTALLATIONLICENSE

OPERATIONLICENSE

RENEWAL OFOPERATION

LICENSE

2 years 1.5 year > 50 years4 years1 year0.5 year

QUALIFICATION

Hydro Generation - Criteria and Procedures

Recommended Level of ActionLow Intermediate High

Special

Socio-environmental Analysis Category 1Category 2Category 3Category 4

Process Analysis CompatibleSmall delay

Delay

Socio-environmental Analysis Scheme

A B C D E

Assessment Scale (Level of Impact)

nonsignificant

lowsignificance

significant highsignificance

extremelysignificant

Impacts assessed

Two letters represent the assessment N N

socioeconomic and cultural dimension

Physic-biotical dimension

Classification of the projectsaccording to the assessment

Socioeconomical Dimension

A B C D E

A 1 1 2 3 4

B 1 1 2 3 4

C 2 2 2 3 4

D 3 3 3 4 4

E 4 4 4 4 4Ph

ysic

-bio

tic D

ime

nsi

on

Environmental Assessment of Hydroelectric Supply

•Physic-biotical environment•socioeconomic-cultural environment

Required Level of Action

Process Assessment

Compatible Small delay Delay

1 Low Low Intermediate

2 Low Intermediate Intermediate

3 Intermediate Intermediate High

4 High High High

Soc

io-e

nviro

nmen

tal

Cla

ssifi

catio

n

Viabilização da oferta hidroelétrica

Special Level of ActionAll projects with constraints to be qualified for taking part in the energy auctions

Hydro supply classification according to the level of action

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mt.

CO

2 e

q.

Óleo Combustível Gás NaturalÓleo Diesel Carvão MineralTOTAL

Accumulated value 2008-2017

Thermal Power Plants: 296 Mt CO2eq

Accumulated value 2008-2017

Thermal Power Plants: 296 Mt CO2eq 39 MtCO2eq.)

Fuel oilDieselTotal

Natural gasCoal

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG)

2 8152 615

1 548

620 541424

26334 14 39

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

USACh

ina

Europe

Unio

nIn

diaJa

pan

Russ

ia

Sout

h Af

rica

Arge

ntina

Braz

il 200

8

Braz

il 201

7

Countries

Mt.

CO

2

GHG Emission(due to electricity production)

Biomass

possible expansion areas for the growing of sugar cane

Source: MME and MAPA apud Silvestrin in Theme Meetings at the EPE, 2006

Expansion Perspectives for Sugar Cane Production

The Ministry of the Agriculture is identifying the Brazilian land appropriated to produce sugarcane without impacting the environment.

Harvest106

ton/year 106

ha

2007 495 6.9

2010 570 7.5

2015 715 9.1

2030 1,140 13.9

Source: Tolmasquim et al (2005)

Technical Potential of Sugarcane Bagass

Production of sugar cane (millions of tons)

 

Technical Potential(TWh / year)

Generation technology Harvesting system 400 700 1.000

Backpressure cycle (current)

Without recovery 8.1 14.2 20.3

With recovery 116 20.4 29.1

Optimum backpressure cycle

Without recovery 24.3 42.6 60.8

With recovery 34.9 61 87.2

Condensation and extraction cycle

Without recovery 46.4 81.3 116.1

With recovery 77.5 135.6 193.7

Gasification of biomass and combined cycle

Without recovery 96.1 168.2 240.3

With recovery 142.2 248.8 355.5

Wind Power

Brazilian Wind Power Potential

• Brazilian Power Sector

•The estimated generation potential is about 31 GWmed, as much as 59% of the current energy market

•Taking into account the new technologies of wind power plants and the last wind measuring in Brazil (e.g. Atlas Eólico do Espírito Santo, Jun, 6th 2009), the total installed capacity can be higher than 300 GW.

Sources: Kuik, 2002 Kujava, 2003, apud Tolmasquim et al (2005)

1985 1989 1992 1994 1998 2000

Ø 112m4.500 kW

Ø 46m600 kW

Ø 37m500 kW

Ø 30m300 kW

Ø 15m50 kW

Ø 70m1.500 kW

Evolution of Wind Power Technology

Nuclear Energy

Source: INB, AIEA

Country 103 ton Share

Cazaquistan 957 21.0%

Australia 910 19.8%

South Africa 369 8.0%

USA 355 7.7%

Canada 332 7.2%

Brazil 309 6.7%

Namibia 287 6.3%

Subtotal 3,519 77.0%

Remainder 1,069 23.0%

World 4,588 100%

In 2003, the 77% of the conventional resources, with cost under US$ 130/kg U, were located in 7 countries (Brazil is the 6th)

Nuclear Energy in the World: Uranium Resources - 2003

Exploration Cost Reserves Generation Potential

< 40 US$/kg U 66,200 t U3O8 8,000 MW

< 80 US$/kg U 177,500 t U3O8 21,000 MW

< 80 US$/kg U(Inferred resources included )

309,370 t U3O8 35,000 MW

Assumptions

Lifetime: 40 years

Capacity Factor: 85%

Nuclear Power Potential in Brazil

Source: IEA (2004)0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

NUCLEAR

WIND

BIOMASS

HYDRO POWER

SOLAR PV

NATURAL GAS

OIL

COAL

LIGNITE

* Taking into account the lifecycle emissions

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

[g CO2-equiv. / kWh] (*)

Auction of “New” Energy

Ten Years Energy Planning

Technical Assessment of Energy Sources

Utilities’ Commitment to Buy Energy

List of Plants Qualified to Sell

Energy

Energy Auction

The Auction Process

Power Purchase Agreement from New Plants Law 10.848/2002

AA-1A-2A-3A-4A-5

Purchase in “A-3”

Auctions of “A-5” and “A-3”PPA with a term of 15 to 35 years

Hydro Plant Paulo Afonso/Bahia

Purchase in “A-5”

limited to 2% of the load from “A-5”

Power Auctions

Power Auctions PPA

João Pessoa

Porto Alegre

Florianópolis

Curitiba

São Paulo

Rio de Janeiro

Vitória

BeloHorizonte

Campo Grande

Belém

São Luís

Teresina

Fortaleza

Natal

Recife

MaceióAracajú

SalvadorCuiabá

Goiânia

Brasília

BILATERAL CONTRACTS

10

General DataInstalled Capacity : 3,150.4 MWTurbine: BulboUnities: 44 Unity Power Potential:71.6 MWFirm Energy: 2,218 MWmed

Energy AuctionDecember 10th, 2007

Energy Price - ACR78.87 R$/MWh or 46.95 US$/MWh*

Illustrative Design

Site

*1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$

Santo Antônio Hydro Power Plant - Madeira River

General DataInstalled Capacity : 3,300 MWTurbine: BulboUnities: 44 Unity Power Potential:75 MWFirm Energy: 1,975.3 MW médios

Energy AuctionMay 19th, 2008

Energy Price - ACR71.37 R$/MWh or 42.48 US$/MWh *

*1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$

Jirau Hydro Power Plant – Madeira River

Historical of Energy Auction

2005 2006 2007

dec/05 – 1º “New” Energy Auction

jun/06 – 2º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)

oct/06 – 3º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)

2008

jun/07 – 1º Alternative Energy Auction

jul/07 – 4º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)

oct/07 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)

dec/07 – 1º SP Auction - UHE Sto Antônio

38

may/08 – 2º SP Auction - UHE Jirau

- 1º Reserve Energy Auction

jul/08 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)

oct/08 – 6º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)

2009

39

aug/09 – 7º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)

oct/09 – 3º SP Auction - UHE Belo Monte

nov/09 - 2º Reserve Energy Auction

dec/09 – 8º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)

2009 - Energy Auction

Annual Capacity Growth (MW)

SOURCES 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TOTALHYDRO 0 707 1 984 1 733 657 2 461 1 986 5 397 7 342 6 536 28 805SMALL HYDRO 0 1 207 1 103 155 30 414 875 320 320 0 4 423NUCLEAR 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 350 0 0 0 1 350FUEL OIL 0 304 1 732 1 440 426 3 618 0 0 0 0 7 520NATURAL GAS 371 110 216 496 564 1 677 0 0 0 0 3 434DIESEL 0 859 174 0 -564 -553 0 0 0 0 -83COAL 0 0 350 700 350 360 0 0 0 0 1 760BIOMASS 20 655 2 360 59 0 114 0 0 0 0 3 208WIND 0 771 378 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 149OTHERS 0 490 0 0 0 0 0 900 0 0 1 390TOTAL 391 5 103 8 298 4 582 1 463 8 091 4 211 6 617 7 662 6 536 52 955

CHALLENGE

To supply energy at fair prices

to develop the countryfollowing the principles of

sustainable growth

Empresa de Pesquisa Energética - EPEAv. Rio Branco nº 1 11º andar Centro Rio de Janeiro

Thanks for your attention!