planetary and societal risks
TRANSCRIPT
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations
MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin dotEarth, New York Times
Sybil SeitzingerInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
Deborah RogersInternational Human Dimensions Programme on Global
Environmental Change
Gisbert GlaserSenior Policy Advisor
International Council for Science
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations
Planetary and societal risks
Why we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil SeitzingerExecutive Director
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
Antarctic ice core
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
Carbon dioxide
MethaneModern humans appear in Africa
Carbondioxide
Temperature
Methane
Antarctic ice core
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
Carbondioxide
MethaneBeyond natural
boundaries
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
IGBP Climate-change indexGlobal carbon dioxide Arctic sea-ice minimum
Global surface temperature Global sea level
IGBP Climate-change index
The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure
Population
US Bureau of the Census (2000) International databaseIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Total real GDP
Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago PressIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Foreign direct investment
World Bank (2002) data and statisticsIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Damming of rivers
World Commission on Dams (2000)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Water use
Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water ResourcesIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Fertiliser consumption
International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Urban population
The State of the World’s Cities (2001)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Paper consumption
Pulp and paper international (1993)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Motor vehicles
Global environmental outlook (2000)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Telephones
Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World BankIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
International tourism
World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trendsIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Shrimp farm production
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Domesticated land
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Planetary response
Atmospheric CO2 concentration
Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Atmospheric N2O concentration
Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Atmospheric CH4 concentration
Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Northern hemisphere average surface temperature
Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Ozone depletion
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Tropical rainforest and woodland loss
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Natural climatic disasters
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Fisheries exploitation
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Coastal zone nitrogen flux
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Biodiversity loss
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Great acceleration
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
“Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”
Ban Ki-Moon
A resilient Earth System
Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament
Photograph by Annie Griffiths BeltNational Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.
Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?
Climate Change
Ocean Acidification
Ozone Depletion
Global Freshwater Use
Rate of Biodiversity Loss
Phosphorus
Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
Land System Change
Chemical Pollution
Nitrogen
Rockström et al. 2009
2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum
“The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”
Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity
Planetary Stewardship2020 2040 20502030
New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012
Planetary and societal risks
Why we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil SeitzingerExecutive Director
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programmewww.igbp.net