planetary defense coordination office (pdco) update...2016/06/30 · planetary defense coordination...

Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) Update

Lindley Johnson Program Executive / Planetary Defense Officer

Science Mission Directorate NASA HQ

June 30, 2016

2

Chelyabinsk Event – 15 February 2013

• Natural object entering Earth’s atmosphere – Large meteoroids = small asteroids – Interest in any larger than 1 meter in size

• Entry velocity much higher than re-entering space debris • Characteristic ionization trail and detonation • Chelyabinsk Event largest and most documented in recent decades

– 17-19 meters in size, energy release equal to approximately 440 kilotons at 23 km altitude

February 15, 2013 1613 citizens injured ~$30 million damages

National Interest in Asteroid Hazard

“The Administration places a high priority on tracking asteroids and protecting our planet from them, as evidenced by the five-fold increase in the budget for NASA’s NEOO program since 2009. The United States has an effective program for discovering larger NEOs, but we need to improve our capabilities for the identification and characterization of smaller NEOs.”

John Holdren, Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy, Science advisor to President Barack Obama

Congressman Lamar Smith (R-Texas) — Chairman of U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology

General William Shelton — then-Chief of the U.S. Air Force Space Command

“Threats from Space: A Review of U.S. Government Efforts to Track and Mitigate Asteroids and Meteors, Part 1’’ Congressional Hearing by the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (19 March 2013), post-Chelyabinsk event

Planetary Defense Coordination Office Mission Statement:

Lead national and international efforts to: • Detect any potential for significant impact of planet Earth by natural objects • Appraise the range of potential effects by any possible impact • Develop strategies to mitigate impact effects on human welfare

4

Planetary Defense Coordination Office

This new office was recently established at NASA HQ to coordinate planetary defense related activities across NASA, and coordinate both US interagency and international efforts and projects to address and plan response to the asteroid impact hazard.

Lead Program Executive Planetary Defense Officer Public Communications Policy Development

Mitigation Research Program Officer(s)

Interagency and Emergency Response

Program Officer(s)

NEO Observation Program Program Manager Program Scientist


– Minor Planet Center/IAWN – Center for NEO Studies @ JPL – Catalina Sky Survey – Pan-STARRS – LINEAR/SST – IRTF – GSSR – NEOWISE – ……..

– SMPAG – ARM Gravity Tractor Demo – AIDA – Short Warning Mitigation – ……..

– Interagency coordination – Emergency Response planning – Interagency exercise

Associate Administrator, Science Mission Directorate

Administrator Associate Administrator

Planetary Science Division Program Director

Legacy Program (1998)

Detection and tracking of natural objects – asteroids and comets – that approach within 28 million miles of Earth’s orbit

US component to International Asteroid Warning Network Has provided 98% of new detections of NEOs since 1998 Began with NASA commitment to House Committee on Science in May 1998 to

find at least 90% of 1 km and larger NEOs That goal reached by end of 2010

NASA Authorization Act of 2005 increased scope of objectives: • Amended National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958 (“NASA Charter”) to add:

‘‘The Congress declares that the general welfare and security of the United States require that the unique competence of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration be directed to detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and characterizing near-Earth asteroids and comets in order to provide warning and mitigation of the potential hazard of such near-Earth objects to the Earth.’’

• Made NEO detection, tracking and research 1 of 7 explicitly stated purposes of NASA! • Provided additional direction: “…plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue,

and characterize the physical characteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue within 15 years [by 2020]”

NEO Observations Program

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

An asteroid one kilometer in size, were it to collide with our planet at about twenty kilometers per second, would penetrate the atmosphere in less than ten seconds and cause catastrophic damage to any country and have long term effects with global consequences. It is for that reason the initial objective of our program was to discover at least ninety percent of these natural objects of one kilometer or larger within the ten year period from 1998 to 2008. The average annual budget of the program has been about four million US dollars. However, the US Congress has since provided NASA additional direction to investigate systems to extend the search down to objects of only 140 meters in size and attempt to achieve ninety percent completeness of this effort by the end of 2020. A plus-up to the budget is proposed in the FY2012 budget submittal to Congress.

Known Near Earth Asteroid Population

Start of NASA NEO “Program”

As of 6/26/2016 14,474 Also 107 comets 1707 Potentially HazardousAsteroids Come within 5 million miles of Earth’s orbit

872 157 PHAs

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Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status

*Harris & D’Abramo, “The population of near-Earth asteroids”, Icarus 257 (2015) 302–312, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2015.05.004

*

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2015.05.004



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Initial Objective Accomplished

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*Study to Determine the Feasibility of Extending the Search for Near-Earth Objects to Smaller Limiting Diameters Report of the Near-Earth Object Science Definition Team, August 22, 2003, http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/neoreport030825.pdf

Impact Devastation None City Region Continent Global

KT Impact Killed Dinosaurs

1908 Tunguska

2013 Chelyabinsk

*

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/neoreport030825.pdf



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To meet Current Objectives

> 1 km Objective Accomplished

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If Population >= 140 meters in estimated size is ~ 25,500 = 100%

NASA’s NEO Search Program (Current Survey Systems)

Catalina Sky Survey

UofAZ Arizona & Australia

Minor Planet Center (MPC) • IAU sanctioned • Int’l observation database • Initial orbit determination http://minorplanetcenter.net/ Center for NEO Studies @ JPL • Program coordination • Precision orbit determination • Automated SENTRY http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ Pan-STARRS

Uof HI Haleakula, Maui

NEO-WISE

JPL Sun-synch LEO

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LINEAR/SST

MIT/LL Soccoro, NM

Status of Minor Planet Center

• With PSD support, PDCO has begun discussions to attach MPC as a functional node to the Planetary Data System Small Bodies Node (SBN)

• Working with SBN and CfA to have MPC on better footing by 2017 • PSD requested and just received proposal from SBN for MPC support

beginning FY2017 • Anticipated benefits: 1. Ensure the MPC’s critical output is directly tied with NASA’s permanent archive of

planetary data. 2. Provide a closer tie, which can be enhanced by added links in the archive, between

the dynamical results produced by MPC and the physical results normally archived by PDS. Both are critical for understanding the hazard from NEOs and the two, complementary data types are needed by many researchers

3. Provides support to permanently archive physical observations submitted to MPC 4. Provide greater flexibility to hire staff to support MPC functions 5. Increases international collaboration through PDS’s participation in IPDA and in

other relevant IAU Working Groups

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Growth in Capability

15 As more capable telescopes are added, discoveries include more <140 meter NEOs

Discoveries for Current Objective

16 Discoveries of >140 meter NEOs is now about 1/3 of the total each year

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Update on Upgrades

Catalina Sky Survey - Large-format camera upgrades for both survey telescopes. These camera upgrades will increase the field of view by a factor of 2.4x on the 0.7m Schmidt and 4.0x on the 1.5m. The latter was in operation for June 2016 and tripled the average monthly NEO discovery rate. Pan-STARRS – PS-1 continues NEO search operations for 90% of its time. PS-2 found 5 NEOs in Fall 2015 during commissioning, but is now completing upgrades to bring it to full operational status, including a new focal plane for its CCD camera. Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) - ATLAS-1 on Haleakala is now fully operational and routinely discovering new Near Earth Asteroids – 9 so far in 2015. It is still fitted with a corrector lens that has known optical problems, but a fix is in work. ATLAS-2 telescope to be delivered by August 2016 and installed in the Mauna Loa dome. http://www.fallingstar.com/updates.php

2016 HO3: A Quasi-moon for Earth

“Red Spot, Jr.” (Oval BA)

On 27 April 2016, the Pan-STARRS 1 survey telescope on Haleakalā, detected a “quasi-moon” of the Earth. This companion, designated 2016 HO3, is probably a small asteroid between 40 to 100 meters in size.

Although looking from the Earth it may appear to orbit the planet, it actually is in a co-orbit with Earth about the Sun.

The Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS 1) on Maui.

Plot of the librating orbit of 2016 HO3 over 60 years (1960-2020) relative to the Earth, presented in a rotating frame centered on the Earth and projected onto the ecliptic plane. From this perspective, this near-Earth asteroid appears to orbit the Earth; however, it actually orbits the Sun on a path very close to the Earth’s. 2016 HO3 never approaches closer than 14 million km nor ventures further than 40 million km away. It takes the Earth 365.24 days to orbit the Sun. 2016 HO3 currently makes one circuit in 365.93 days (about 16 hours longer than Earth). In terms of ∆v [the energy required to launch and rendevous a spacecraft], 2016 HO3 might make an interesting target to visit, as it is accessible every year at less than 7 km/sec despite a 7.7°inclination with the ecliptic.

50 x 106 km


Rapid Notification Process

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NEOO Survey and Alert Process

Survey, Detect,

& Report

Correlate, Determine Rough Orbit

Possible New PHO?

Routine Processing

Publish Results

Yes

Potential Impact?

Resolve Result

Differences Publish Results

No

Precision Orbit and Follow Up Observations

Impact Still

Possible?

Observations and Update Orbit

Publish/ Update Results

No

No

Yes

Yes

Iterate

Survey Systems Minor Planet Center Ctr NEO Studies @ JPL *

* In parallel with NEODyS

Radar Alerts to

PDCO • MPC - PHO

of interest • MPC -

possible close approach

• CNEOS - reports potential for impact

• CNEOS -publishes probability of impact

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Depicted here is a flow chart showing the process we use to assess and predict whether a newly discovered object is an impact hazard. It includes our survey systems used for the search, the Minor Planet Center, and the JPL Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS), whose high precision orbit predictions are mirrored by the NEO Dynamic Site of the University of Piza, Italy. Starting at the upper left, our survey systems detect the small objects moving across the field of background stars and report their observations to the MPC. There, all observations collected world-wide are either correlated with known objects or determined to be a new discovery and a rough orbit is determined. With the initial orbit, it is determined whether it is a potentially hazardous object or just another common small body of the solar system. If it is a PHO, a rough estimate is made by the MPC of whether it poses a threat of impacting the Earth. Most thankfully do not and are routinely processed and cataloged. If the object is potentially an impactor, the CNEOS is alerted to perform more precise orbit determination and the network is requested to provide follow-up observations. If a potential impact is determined to be real by the precision orbit determination, PDCO is alerted at NASA Headquarters, and maximum possible observations are requested of the survey and follow-up network. The object is also assessed for possible observation by planetary radar, which would provide the most precise parameters if the object is observable by those limited systems. The orbit is iterated on as quickly as new data becomes available, and the CNEOS compares its predictions with NEODyS, providing a valuable verification and validation of the resulting information. All information collected and determined on the object and its orbit is published by both the MPC and CNEOS on their websites.

“Close Approaches” in 2015

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Object Close-Approach (CA) Date CA Distance RelativeDesignation Nominal Velocity Size

# YYYY-mmm-DD HH:MM ± D_HH:MM (LD/AU)* (km/s) (meters)1 (2015 SK7) 2015-Sep-22 21:44 ± < 00:01 0.07/0.00018 13.7 5 - 122 (2015 VY105) 2015-Nov-15 02:40 ± < 00:01 0.09/0.00023 17.4 3 - 73 (2015 DD1) 2015-Feb-17 07:38 ± < 00:01 0.10/0.00026 8.2 2 - 44 (2015 HD1) 2015-Apr-21 08:17 ± < 00:01 0.15/0.00040 16.0 10 - 225 (2015 YJ) 2015-Dec-13 21:19 ± 00:03 0.19/0.00048 16.7 5 - 126 (2015 PK) 2015-Aug-06 03:10 ± 00:03 0.21/0.00053 16.3 5 - 127 (2015 VU64) 2015-Nov-06 23:09 ± < 00:01 0.26/0.00067 4.5 2 - 48 (2015 DQ224) 2015-Feb-18 01:21 ± 01:42 0.28/0.00072 15.0 3 - 79 (2015 EO6) 2015-Mar-12 00:31 ± < 00:01 0.28/0.00073 23.8 2 - 4

10 (2015 GU) 2015-Apr-12 05:36 ± < 00:01 0.29/0.00074 11.7 5 - 1211 (2015 TC25) 2015-Oct-13 07:32 ± < 00:01 0.29/0.00074 4.4 3 - 712 (2015 ET) 2015-Mar-10 16:42 ± < 00:01 0.33/0.00084 12.4 12 - 2613 (2015 UM52) 2015-Oct-22 19:19 ± < 00:01 0.34/0.00087 7.9 7 - 1814 (2015 AQ43) 2015-Jan-14 13:20 ± < 00:01 0.41/0.00105 12.5 5 - 1215 (2015 BE511) 2015-Jan-20 13:06 ± < 00:01 0.42/0.00108 9.5 5 - 1216 (2015 GL13) 2015-Apr-16 07:53 ± < 00:01 0.48/0.00124 14.0 5 - 1217 (2015 LF) 2015-Jun-08 23:49 ± < 00:01 0.51/0.00132 16.8 12 - 2618 (2015 WP2) 2015-Nov-20 01:43 ± < 00:01 0.60/0.00154 12.8 2 - 419 (2015 BP513) 2015-Jan-18 17:09 ± < 00:01 0.62/0.00160 7.8 12 - 2620 (2015 VP64) 2015-Nov-05 09:15 ± < 00:01 0.73/0.00187 20.5 5 - 1221 (2015 CH13) 2015-Feb-11 06:17 ± < 00:01 0.73/0.00189 15.3 5 - 1222 (2015 KW121) 2015-May-23 18:02 ± < 00:01 0.74/0.00191 21.1 15 - 3023 (2015 XY261) 2015-Dec-15 13:52 ± < 00:01 0.75/0.00193 11.9 10 - 2224 (2015 JF1) 2015-May-15 11:52 ± < 00:01 0.81/0.00208 13.8 5 - 1225 (2015 HG182) 2015-Apr-14 19:17 ± 00:01 0.86/0.00220 17.9 5 - 1226 (2015 FM118) 2015-Mar-28 02:49 ± < 00:01 0.92/0.00238 8.8 5 - 1227 (2015 FU344) 2015-Mar-16 05:50 ± < 00:01 0.99/0.00255 10.0 1 - 3

* LD= Lunar Distance, AU = Astronomical Unit = Distance to Sun

Closer than Geosynchronous

All objects detected that passed between Earth & Moon’s orbit in CY 2015

“Close Approaches” to date in 2016

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Closer than Geosynchronous

All objects detected that passed between Earth & Moon’s orbit thru April CY 2016

Object Close-Approach (CA) Date CA Distance RelativeDesignation Nominal Velocity Size

# YYYY-mmm-DD HH:MM ± D_HH:MM (LD/AU)* (km/s) (meters)1 (2016 DY30) 2016-Feb-25 19:59 ± 00:02 0.04/9.6e-05 17.4 2 - 42 (2016 AH164) 2016-Jan-12 03:35 ± < 00:01 0.07/0.00018 8.6 3 - 73 (2016 EF195) 2016-Mar-11 04:35 ± 00:20 0.08/0.00021 10.1 20 - 504 (2016 AN164) 2016-Jan-14 14:55 ± < 00:01 0.10/0.00025 13.2 2 - 45 (2016 GN134) 2016-Apr-04 13:52 ± < 00:01 0.15/0.00038 13.9 2 - 46 (2016 CM194) 2016-Feb-13 07:48 ± < 00:01 0.20/0.00052 12.0 8 - 187 (2016 AQ164) 2016-Jan-10 14:15 ± < 00:01 0.27/0.00070 14.2 3 - 78 (2016 DB) 2016-Feb-15 04:50 ± < 00:01 0.32/0.00083 9.5 5 - 129 (2016 CG18) 2016-Feb-06 13:30 ± < 00:01 0.39/0.00101 4.9 5 - 12

10 (2016 EV28) 2016-Mar-08 05:06 ± < 00:01 0.40/0.00103 25.6 5 - 1211 (2016 FC1) 2016-Mar-14 14:27 ± < 00:01 0.44/0.00112 16.2 4 - 1012 (2016 FU6) 2016-Mar-25 19:19 ± 00:01 0.47/0.00120 10.3 4 - 1013 (2016 AN165) 2016-Jan-13 14:44 ± < 00:01 0.47/0.00120 11.0 8 - 1814 (2016 DA31) 2016-Feb-29 15:57 ± < 00:01 0.52/0.00133 13.8 3 - 715 (2016 GS134) 2016-Apr-01 05:56 ± < 00:01 0.52/0.00133 11.2 7 - 1516 (2016 EK1) 2016-Mar-03 18:06 ± < 00:01 0.53/0.00135 18.5 4 - 1017 (2016 CW264) 2016-Feb-10 11:38 ± < 00:01 0.55/0.00141 24.5 3 - 718 (2016 EL1) 2016-Mar-04 11:54 ± < 00:01 0.60/0.00154 20.1 7 - 1519 (2016 FE15) 2016-Mar-28 14:18 ± < 00:01 0.70/0.00180 12.3 5 - 1220 (2016 FW13) 2016-Apr-05 02:21 ± < 00:01 0.82/0.00210 10.5 3 - 721 (2016 DK2) 2016-Feb-26 07:19 ± < 00:01 0.83/0.00212 18.7 4 - 1022 (2016 EN157) 2016-Mar-10 02:47 ± < 00:01 0.84/0.00216 12.6 7 - 1523 (2016 GO206) 2016-Apr-06 20:02 ± 00:02 0.86/0.00220 22.5 13 - 3024 (2016 GO134) 2016-Apr-08 19:34 ± < 00:01 0.86/0.00222 15.3 10 - 2225 (2016 FZ13) 2016-Mar-23 03:54 ± 00:01 0.98/0.00252 4.5 5 - 1226 (2016 FN56) 2016-Mar-21 08:33 ± 00:21 1.00/0.00257 24.7 35 - 95

* LD= Lunar Distance, AU = Astronomical Unit = Distance to Sun

Planetary Defense Coordination Office Potential Impact Notification Process

Yes PDCO Drafts

Notification

PDCO Notifies SMD AA, NASA Administrator,

NASA Administrator informs Executive Office of the President (EOP),

OSTP

When EOP acknowledges, NASA OIIR disseminates

notification to Federal Agencies, NMCCs

NASA OLIA notifies US Congress

FEMA notifies Federal, state, and local emergency

response orgs If impact in US territory

If impact outside U.S. Department of State

notifies affected nation/ nations

Potential Impact!

NASA releases public

statement

Very Close Approach to Earth?

Potential Impact >1%

If Yes to either, then notification process

initiated

yes

yes

Object Detected,

Initial Orbit Determination

Made

No

Between Earth and Moon and Visible From Earth?

Note: Time taken to accomplish is directly proportional to time remaining to impact

Characterization Process

Observations Intermediate parameters

Objectives

Rough orbit

Precise orbit

Absolute magnitude

Density

Size

Albedo

Apparent magnitude

Mass Spectral type

Phase curves

Colors, Spectroscopy

Radar

Light curves Rotation, Shape

Additional astrometry

Initial detection, astrometry, photometry

Thermal infrared

Rough Approximation of Precise

Approximate

Area/Mass Ratio

Astrometry over months or years

25

Primary NEO Characterization Assets and Enhancements

25

NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF) • Increased call-up for Rapid Response • Improving operability/maintainability • Improve Instrumentation for Spectroscopy and

Thermal Signatures

Arecibo Observatory Goldstone Radar

Radar (Goldstone and Arecibo) • Increased time for NEO observations • Streamlining Rapid Response capabilities • Increased resolution (~4 meters) • Improve maintainability

Spitzer Infrared Space Telescope • Orbit about Sun, ~176 million km trailing Earth • In extended Warm-phase mission • Characterization of Comets and Asteroids • Thermal Signatures, Albedo/Sizes of NEOs • Longer time needed for scheduling

Coordinated Rapid Response to a New Near-Earth Asteroid Discovery and Flyby

Observations & data analysis: N. Moskovitz (Lowell Obs.), D. Polishook (Weizmann Inst.), M. Hinkle (NAU), B. Ryan (MRO), M. Brucker (Adler), K. Nault (Adler), V. Reddy (PSI), B. Burt (Lowell)

The near-Earth asteroid 2016 CG18 was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey on Feb 3, 2016 and flew by the Earth three days later at less than half the distance to the Moon. A coordinated response by astronomers was made from several observatories:

NASA’s Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) Gemini North Observatory Magdalena Ridge Observatory (MRO) Apache Point Observatory (APO)

IRTF and Gemini target-of-opportunity spectroscopic observations give clues to the composition and surface brightness. Light curve observations from APO and MRO show that this 4-9 meter object is an unusually slow tumbler for an object of its size, possibly the slowest measured to date at ~2 hours per revolution.

This campaign tested rapid response observing protocols and coordination for difficult, fast moving objects in preparation for future time-critical events similar to the discovery and impact of 2008 TC3. This effort also added critical data to the catalog of physical properties for potential Earth impactors as well as spacecraft-accessible targets for future exploration.

Complex lightcurve indicates the rate of tumbling

MRO

thermal emission?

Spectral observations indicate surface brightness, composition

Gemini IRTF

Planetary Defense Coordination Office Support to Emergency Response

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Credit: Tim Warchocki

Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP)

Atmospheric Entry & Airburst Modeling

• Entry Trajectories/Ablation • Energy Deposition

Surface Impact Effects Modeling

• Ground Damage • Tsunami Propagation

Physics-Based Impact Risk Modeling

• Quantitative Risk Metrics • Sensitivity to Uncertainty

Impact Risk Assessment Tools

Characterization • Physical Properties • Orbital Trajectories JPL Web

Deliverables • Mitigation Decision Tools • Near Real-Time Bolide Reporting System

US Gov. Surveillance System • Light Curves: New 600 Plus Existing

LLNL

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Focused effort to develop decision support information

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Chelyabinsk

30

Chelyabinsk

Fireball and Bolide Reports page (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/fireball/) now lists available data for 341 events from Jan 2005 to Jun 2016

Impact Emergency Response Exercise #2

30 Days prior to Impact Optical only tracking 40 to 60 meter object Impact Probability 100% Date/Time (UTC) 2021 Sep 5 17:02 Center Point Latitude 29.7 Longitude -95.3 Footprint size 1000 x 50 km Major axis Azimuth (deg) 130

EXERCISE

EXERCISE

US Interagency Coordination

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Planetary Impact Emergency Response Working Group (PIERWG) co-chaired with FEMA to develop guidance to prepare for any potential impact of our planet by a large natural object and coordinate responsibilities and resolve preparedness and operational issues relating to interagency response and recovery activities at the national level in preparation for a predicted or actual impact of an asteroid or comet that could affect the United States or its territories. Interagency Working Group (IWG) co-chaired with OSTP for Deflecting and Mitigating the Impact of Earth-bound Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) (DAMIEN) established by action of the Committee on Homeland and National Security (CHNS) within the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC). DAMIEN will consider the full range of needs for options to mitigate impacts from NEOs, including: detection, characterization, trajectory determination, and impact analysis; senior U.S. decision making, international cooperation and communications; long-term and short-term mitigation options, as well as quantification of success and risks from different mitigation options; public outreach and disaster planning, operations, and recovery. • Briefing to President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST)

http://www.tvworldwide.com/events/pcast/160520/default.cfm


Mitigation Research

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Options for In-space Deflection

• Multiple studies of impact threat deflection have cited three techniques as most viable: Kinetic Impactor, Gravity Tractor, Nuclear Explosive Device

• Making planetary defense credible requires a series of technology demonstrations and operational tests

• All techniques require some level of demonstration and validation before considered viable for implementation in impact emergency response

• Requires ongoing program to reduce risks, validate performance models, prove out an integrated capability, and maintain readiness for potential operators and decision-makers

• International participation in any asteroid mitigation / deflection campaign is highly desirable if not essential to overall acceptability

National Research Council of the National Academies, “Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies Final Report,” 2010

Dia

met

er (m

)

Warning Time (yr)

ARM demonstrates the Gravity Tractor technique

Kinetic impactor is the most mature; probably most effective except for short-term warning

Short Warning NEO Mitigation Studies Joint NASA - DOE/NNSA Team

GSFC -Livermore-Los Alamos-Sandia Objectives

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• Investigate mitigation approaches for the class of potentially hazardous asteroids in the short time response scenario

• Impulse energies increase as time to impact lessens, so we computationally explore high energy momentum delivery approaches to deflection or disruption of the NEA threat

• Employ a full-system scenario analysis methodology for addressing the end-to-end mitigation mission design

• Parse the research into a series of case studies based on various design reference asteroid types

• Use probabilistic methods to describe the effectiveness of the proposed mitigation design reference mission

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Asteroid Redirect Mission: Three Main Segments

Infrared Telescope Facility Goldstone Arecibo

NEOWISE

IDENTIFY

REDIRECT

EXPLORE

Ground and space based assets detect and characterize potential target asteroids

Solar electric propulsion (SEP) based system redirects asteroid to cis-lunar space.

Crew launches aboard SLS rocket, travels to redirected asteroid in Orion spacecraft to rendezvous with redirected asteroid, studies and returns samples to Earth

Pan-STARRS

36 36

Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission Planetary Defense Demonstration Approach

14 days Characterization

85 days Boulder Collection

60 days + 30 day margin

Departure Planetary Defense Demo

Planetary Defense Demo 30 days (deflection + verify if needed)

Approach

Characterization

Boulder Collection

37


International Collaboration

38

May 12, 2014 39

Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA)

• The AIDA is a mission concept to demonstrate asteroid impact hazard mitigation with a kinetic impact spacecraft to deflect an asteroid

• AIDA would be a joint US and European mission: ‒ European rendezvous spacecraft, the Asteroid

Impact Mission (AIM) mission ‒ US kinetic impactor, the Double Asteroid

Redirection Test (DART) mission ‒ NASA has agreed with ESA to enter parallel

formulation concept studies in 2016 • The AIDA mission would intercept the secondary

member of the binary Near-Earth Asteroid Didymos in October, 2022

AIDA = AIM+DART

AIDA Mission Concept

Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment (AIDA) Mission - currently in parallel formulation studies with European Space Agency (ESA)

Double Asteroid Redirection Test (NASA) Kinetic Impactor

Asteroid Impact Mission (ESA) Rendezvous/Observer

Earth-Based Observations

(65803) Didymos a binary near-Earth asteroid

Overview for NEO Threat Response

International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN)

Space Missions Planning Advisory

Group (SMPAG)

Observers, analysts, modelers…

Space Agencies and Offices

United Nations COPUOS/OOSA

Inform in case of credible threat

Determine Impact time, location and severity

Potential deflection mission plans

Parent Government Delegations

United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space

Next meetings planned in conjunction with DPS/EPSC Oct 2016

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Establishment of the IAWN and SMPAG has been facilitated by the NEO Action Team-14 during the last year. The IAWN held its first meeting of the Steering Committee for the network in January at the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, MA, in the United States. The SMPAG had its formulation meeting last week, hosted by ESA at their operations center in Darmstadt, Germany.

42

International Asteroid Warning Network

Received ~20.6 Million Observations from 39 countries in 2015 (and one in space!)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Each red dot represents an observatory that submitted near-Earth Object data to the Minor Planet Center in 2012. We have a fairly broad and diverse observing network in place. Many of these are search assets, notably the cluster in the southwestern United States. Hawaii has a major active search program as well. While these observatories sent millions of observations to the MPC, NEOs represnted but a small fraction of the objects observed.

planetary defense coordination office (pdco) update...2016/06/30 · planetary defense coordination...

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