Determining the future course of action

Process

Forward looking

Pervasive-at all levels

Long term vs Short term

Objectives

Planning premises

Alternatives

Evaluating alternatives

Choice of alternatives

Supporting plans

Establishing sequence of activities

Commitment to a particular course of action believed necessary to achieve specific results

Standing - policies, rules, objectives

Single use – budget, targets

Long term vision of what organization seeks to do and why does it exist.

Focus is external

End results towards which activities are aimed

Good objectives should have SMART features:S- specificM-measurableA- achievableR-realisticT-time bound

Management by Objectives (MBO)

Strategies are complex plans for bringingorganizations from one position to other infuture period (determined in light of externalenvironment)

Policies are general statements which provide guidance in decision making

-Series of related tasks

-Establish a method for handling activities

Policies provide direction, procedure tell how to do

Based on facts

Stability

Flexibility

Minimum in number

Prescribed guidelines for conduct, action.

Planned actions integrated into unity, designed to bring about stated objective

Corporate - top management

Tactical - middle management

Operational – lower management

List your five most important personal objectives? Are they long term or short term?

Are the objectives verifiable?

Method Advantages Disadvantages

Estimation People in position estimate the number of people the firm will require in the next yr.

Incorporates knowledge of corporate plans in making estimates

May be subjective

Expert opinion Panel of experts forecast HR requirements for particular future business scenarios. For this method, there may be a single expert, or estimates of several experts may be pooled together

Delphi Experts go through several rounds of estimates with no face-to-face meeting

Incorporates future plans & knowledge of experts related to mkt., industry & technical development

Subjective, time consuming & may ignore data

Group brainstorming Face-to-face discussion based on multiple assumptions about future business direction

Generates lot of ideas

Does not lead to conclusion

Nominal group technique

Face-to-face discussion Group exchanges facilitate plans

Subjective which may ignore data

Simple averaging Simple averaging of viewpoints

Diverse view points taken

Extremes views are masked when averaged 17

Method Advantages Disadvantages

Trend analysis & projection

Based on past relationship between a business factor related to employment & employment level itself

Simple long-run trend analysis

Extrapolates past relationship between volume of business activity & employment levels into the future

Recognizes linkage between employment & business activity

Assumes that volume of business activity of firm for forecast period will continue at same rate as previous yrs

Ignores multiplicity of factors influencing employment levels

Regression analysis

Regresses employment needs onto key variables

Data driven

Uses multiple business factors

Difficult to use & apply

18

A decision is an act of choice by which an individual or organization selects one position or action from several alternatives

Strategic decisions

Tactical decisions

Specific objectives

Identification of problems: diagnosis, analysis

Search for alternatives

Evaluation of alternatives

Choice

Action

Results

Certainty-using deterministic model

Risk (information insufficient) ◦ -Priori probability (tossing coin)

◦ -Empirical probability

◦ -Subjective probability

Uncertainty◦ -maximax criterion

◦ -maximin criterion

◦ -Minimax criterion (minimising regret)

◦ -Insufficient reason criterion 9equal probability is assigned to each event)

Operations Research

Decision Tree

Game Theory

Queuing Theory