planning for adoption of electric buses … · electric bus projects in the us • key agencies...

April 7, 2020

Michael Groh, Sam Schwartz Consulting

Planning for Adoption of Electric Buses

1

Agenda1. State of the Electric Bus

Industrya. Growth of Electric Buses

b. Benefits of Electric Buses

c. Challenges

2. Electric Bus Technologiesa. Slow and Fast Charging

b. Charging Mechanisms

c. Real World Performance

3. Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses

a. Schedule Compatibility

b. Facilities Updates

c. Fleet Planning

d. Cost Projections

State of the Electric Bus Industry:

Growth of Electric Buses

Current State of Electric Bus Market• Battery-electric bus manufacturing and technology are still new but

progressing rapidly.

• Dozens of transit agencies in the US with electric bus experience – most with less than 10 buses

• Currently, six agencies in the United States are operating 10 or more electric buses.

• The industry is currently focusing on 40-foot standard bus designs. Offerings in the 60-foot articulated bus category are still limited.

• Electric bus manufacturers include New Flyer, Nova, Gillig, BYD, and Proterra.

INGENUITY. ACCESSIBILITY. INTEGRITY 5

Electric Bus Projects in the US• Key agencies with electric bus experience:

• King County Metro: 120 electric buses by 2020

• IndyGo: 34 buses, 18 more on order

• Antelope Valley Transportation Authority: 30 electric buses (two 60-foot), anticipated 100% conversion in 2019/2020.

• Foothill Transit: 37 buses, 100% fleet conversion by 2030

• California Air Resources Board mandate for transit agencies to transition to electric buses by 2040

• 425,000 electric buses deployed worldwide (99% in China)

Source: TCRP Synthesis 130: Battery Electric Buses State of the Practice, Union of concerned scientists 6

Electric Bus Growth

7Source: National Transit Database

68

10

16

27

35

44

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

US Transit Agencies with Battery Electric Buses

Electric Bus Growth

8Source: National Transit Database

52 52

81

114

148

251

329

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Battery Electric Buses in US


Benefits of Electric Buses

• Health benefits: eliminates tailpipe air pollution emissions

• Reduces noise to levels equivalent to a passenger car

• Reduces fuel costs and price uncertainty

• Long-term reduction of greenhouse gases

• Show leadership to decarbonize transportation sector

Benefits of Electric Buses

10Source: CTA

Electric Bus Emissions

11

Tra

nsit B

us G

HG

Em

issio

ns

Source: MJB&A


Challenges

• Early models had limited battery capacities

• Ambitious manufacturer claims not matched with real-world performance

• Need to anticipate impacts of cold weather, running heat/air conditioning, difficult terrain

• Thorough planning is needed before placing electric buses into service

Electric Bus Challenges

14

Electric Bus Technologies

15

Electric Bus Technologies:

Slow and Fast Charging

Two Strategies for Charger Power

SLOW CHARGING

AT GARAGESFAST CHARGING

ON-ROUTE

Larger Electrical

Requirement

Shorter

Charging Duration

Smaller Electrical

Requirement

Needs Longer

Charging Duration

17

Slow and Fast Charging (Example)

18

Bus Layover (10 minutes)

25-75* miles Bus Layover

(10 minutes)



25-75* miles

25-75* miles

25-75* miles

FAST CHARGING

ON-ROUTE

SLOW CHARGING

AT GARAGES

Bus Garage(2-5 hours)

150-200* miles or less

*”Real world” battery mileage vary based on technology and real-world conditions.


Charging Mechanisms

Charging Mechanisms

20

Photo credit: Autoblog.com Photo credit: ABB.com

Photo credit: electrive.com Photo credit: Siemens

Plug-in Conductive Charging

Continuous ChargingInductive Charging

Mechanisms: Plug-in Charging(Typically Slow/Garage Charging)

21Source: https://www.oppcharge.org/

https://www.oppcharge.org/

Mechanisms: Conductive Charging (Can be Fast or Slow)

22

Mechanisms: Inductive Charging(Typically Fast/On-route Charging)

Photo credit: electrive.com

Mechanisms: Continuous Charging

Trolleybuses require overhead catenary wire for most of their route.

This is also called In Motion Charging (IMC) when buses spend significant time off-wire.

Photo credit: Wikipedia

Standardizing Chargers

Overhead charging standard (J3105) Plug-in standard (J1772)

Photo credit: insideevs.com

Photo credit: chargedevs.com

25

Agency Charging TypesAGENCY Plug-in Conductive Inductive Continuous

King County Metro X X X

Foothill Transit X X

New York City Transit X X

Antelope Valley Transit Authority X X

LADOT X X

Greensboro Transit Authority X X

SEPTA X

IndyGo X X

DART (Dallas) X X

Vineyard Transit Authority X X26

Pros/Cons of E-bus & Charger Types

Consideration Slow Charging

in Garages

Fast Charging

On-Route

Bus Cost ― Larger battery packs cost more. + Smaller battery packs cost less.

Charger Cost + Slow-chargers typically cost less to

purchase/install.

― Fast-chargers typically cost more

to purchase/install.

Garage Space ― Somewhat reduced garage capacity,

likely need for indoor storage.

+ Lessened garage capacity impact.

27

How will this technology evolve?

• Maintenance costs

• Battery prices

• Charging

• Bus prices

28


Real World Performance

Real World Performance

• Transit agencies should anticipate:• How much energy (kWh) is consumed per mile?

May increase 64% to 75% on very cold days due to heating

May increase on hot days due to aid conditioning

Also varies based on driver behavior (acceleration, braking)

• Battery capacity will degrade over time

• Not all of the battery capacity is usable (to avoid damage)

• There should be a minimum reserve capacity drivers do not go below (to avoid breakdowns)

30

Manufacturer claims will not tell the whole story!Source: TriMet/CTE

Battery Capacity

31Source: TriMet/CTE

Battery Capacity

32Source: TriMet/CTE

Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses

Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses:

Schedule Compatibility

Schedule AnalysisPurpose Determine whether electric buses can actually operate the transit

service they would be assigned

Methodology Obtain the schedules of trips that buses would be assigned to

operate Calculate each bus’s state of charge as it completes its schedule

Charge declines based on miles traveled

Charge increases if on-route charging occurs

Identify what service is difficult to electrify so agency can make changes

Repeat for various technologies being considered

INGENUITY. ACCESSIBILITY. INTEGRITY

4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 12:00 AM 2:00 AM

Example of Technology Assumptions

Considered 8 different scenarios with range of inputs:

Operation Analysis ScenarioMinimum layover

charge timeMaximum distance between charges

Analysis 1:

Fast-charge battery-

electric buses

1 4 minutes 25 miles FC




Analysis 2:

Slow-charge battery-

electric buses

5 - 150 miles SC

6 - 200 miles SC

7 - 250 miles SC

8 - 300 miles SC

Example Results: Service Eligible for BEB Operation

39

Example Results: Service Eligible for BEB Operation


Facilities Updates

Where Are On-Route Chargers Feasible?

Agency owns the layover space

There is space for the charging cabinet

Buses have dedicated bays (not back-to-back, not on street)

Identify locations that would be used the most by electric buses

More chargers can make more service eligible for BEBs

On-route chargers are very expensive…

Develop Network of On-Route Charger Locations

Garage Charging Impacts Capacity

43

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

9

8

82 3 4 5 6 71

Diesel Buses

Electric Buses

44

Equity Analysis

44

Deployment of electric buses should consider social equityof the areas that would benefit


Fleet Planning

Depends on lifetime of a bus. A bus fleet naturally turns over through one lifetime.

Example: The TriMet bus fleet naturally turns over from 2020 to 2036. Their bus lifetime is 16 years.

Replacing an Entire Fleet

Replacing the Fleet

660

694709

728749

778796

817836

855869

883897

911925

939953

967981

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

40-

foot

buses

Replacing the Fleet

660

694709

728749

778796

817836

855869

883897

911925

939953

967981

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Committed Diesel Fleet

New Electric Fleet

Committed Purchases Transition Period

40-

foot

buses

• What garage is each bus assigned?

• What size is each bus? (standard, articulated, other)

• Is a pilot period needed before agency stops buying diesel buses?

49

Also Consider

King County Metro – Seattle, WAPilot Program

• Started in 2016 with three fast charge electric buses running on two routes

• Strategy of leasing electric buses from different manufacturers

Type of E-Bus

• Fast Charge battery-electric buses (Proterra Catalyst)

• Legacy E-Bus Fleet:

• 174 Electric trolleys

• 11 Battery-electric buses

Transition Period

• Planning new zero emission bus garage

• Goal for zero-emission fleet by 2040

• Aims to purchase only zero-emission buses starting in 2020

50

Metropolitan Transportation Authority –New York, NYPilot Program

• Three-year pilot program started in 2018

• 10 electric buses running on the B32, M42, and M50 routes

Type of E-Bus

• Battery-Electric buses (New Flyer Excelsior CHARGE & Proterra)

Current Fleet

• 10 battery-electric buses

• 15 articulated electric models expected in October 2019

• MTA intends to order 60 all-electric buses depending on lessons learned from the pilot

Transition Period

• Aiming to transition to 100% electric fleet by 2040 51


Cost Projections

Costs to Analyze

Costs to Agency1. Fuel Use

2. Electricity Use

3. Maintenance

4. Vehicle Purchase

5. Charger Infrastructure

6. Savings from Incentives or Credits

Social Costs1. Emissions (Tailpipe and From Grid)

2. Noise

ingenuity. accessibility. integrity. 53

Building a Cost Model Create a “fleet progression” showing

what vehicles will be in use during your planning period

For each cost category you model, create a new tab that follows the structure of the progression

Accounting assumptions:

Inflation rate for future years

Discount rate for future dollars

Show one scenario or a range of possibilities?

Fleet ProgressionFLEET BUS GARAGE

ID TYPE 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

52 D P 54 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

55 D C 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

56 D M 39 39 33 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

57 D M 40 40 40 40 40 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

58 D P 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

59 D P 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 D C 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

61 D M 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

61 D C 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

59 D P 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62 D C 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

64 D C 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

65 D P 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 12 0 0 0 0 0 0

66 D P 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 0 0 0 0 0 0

67 C P 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0

68 D P 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 0 0 0 0 0

69 D C 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 0 0 0 0

70 D P 0 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 0 0 0

71 S M 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0

72 D M 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0

73 D C 0 0 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 0 0

74 S N 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0

75 D N 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0

76 D M 0 0 0 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0

77 S M 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0

78 D M 0 0 0 0 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 21

79 S M 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0

80 S N 0 0 0 0 0 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38

81 S M 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

82 S M 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

83 S M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

84 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

85 S P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

86 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

87 S C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

88 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

89 S M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

90 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

91 S C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44

92 S M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

93 S C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47

94 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28

95 S P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

96 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 61 61 61 61 61 61

97 S P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 65 65 65 65 65

98 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 18 18 18 18 18

99 S P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 52 52 52 52

100 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 31 31 31 31

101 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 59 59 59

102 S P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 26 26 26

103 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 59 59

104 S M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 21 21

105 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 59

106 S M 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 14

107 S N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73

Vehicle Purchase

41%

Maintenance42%

Fuel 1%

Electricity 5%

Charging Infrastructure 2%Credits

-9%

Costs by category for diesel fleet scenario

Costs by category for electric bus fleet scenario(50/50 Fast/Slow Mix)

Vehicle Purchase

30%

Maintenance59%

Fuel11%

Only costs and credit to TriMet are shown. Moderate assumptions are used. Analysis covers vehicles added 2020-36.

Fiscal Analysis:Costs by Category

Fiscal Analysis:Costs Over Time

56

$-

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

$160,000,000

$180,000,000

$200,000,0002

02

0

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

20

40

20

41

20

42

20

43

20

44

20

45

20

46

20

47

20

48

20

49

20

50

20

51

20

52

Projected Fleet Costs Over Time for Vehicles Added 2020-36

Diesel Scenario

50/50 Fast/Slow Scenario

Only costs and credit to TriMet are shown. Moderate assumptions are used. All

costs are shown in 2018 dollars.

-$300,000,000 -$200,000,000 -$100,000,000 $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000

Fuel Use

Electricity Use

Maintenance

Vehicle Purchase

Charger Infrastructure

Clean Fuel Credits

RIN Credits

CostsSavings

Electric Bus Cost Differences

57

Average of moderate assumptions are used. Analysis covers vehicles added 2020-36.

-$300,000,000 -$200,000,000 -$100,000,000 $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000

Emissions (Tailpipe)

Emissions (Power)

Noise

CostsSavings

Questions?

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