planning ues: residential single family and manufactured home heat pump water heaters christian...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Planning UES: Residential Single Family and Manufactured Home Heat Pump Water Heaters Christian Douglass Regional Technical Forum 7/21/2015](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062423/5697c0011a28abf838cc27c2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Planning UES: Residential Single Family and Manufactured Home Heat Pump Water Heaters
Christian DouglassRegional Technical Forum
7/21/2015
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2
Presentation Overview
Today we are seeking a decision from the RTF on the following residential HPWH measure updates:• Savings and costs – related to new
efficiency tier and baseline definition• Research strategy – proposed addition to
existing strategy
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3
Measure OverviewMeasure Developers NEEA, Ecotope
CAT Review Christian Douglass
Tech Sub-Com Review Yes (6/18/2015)
R&E Sub-Com Review Yes (7/8/2015)
Notes • Measure last updated in November 2014• Current measure does not sunset until the end of
2015; however,• request to add new Tier 3 measure• additional research need identified for
research strategy• would like to address baseline issue, so
measure status can be set to “Active”
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4
Subcommittee AttendanceTechnical Subcommittee
Christian Douglass, RTF Contract AnalystGeoff Wickes, NEEADane Christensen, NRELJim Maunder, Ravalli ElectricRick Knori, Lower Valley EnergyJanice Peterson, BPAAdam Hadley, RTF Contract AnalystJennifer Anziano, RTF ManagerGreg Kelleher, EWEBRobert Weber, BPAMike Baker, SBWMark Johnson, BPAAaron Winer, CLEAResultDave Baylon, EcotopeSarah Widder, PNNLDavid Murphy, BPA
R&E SubcommitteePhilip Kelsven, BPAMark Jerome, CLEAResultJames Domanski, CLEAResultBen Larson, EcotopeGreg Kelleher, EWEBPeter Miller, NRDCJim Perich-Anderson, Puget Sound EnergyRachel Clark, Tacoma PowerDavid Hales, WSU Energy Program Jennifer Anziano, RTF ManagerChristian Douglass, Contract AnalystAdam Hadley, Contract AnalystMohit Singh-Chhabra, Contract Analyst
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5
Savings and Costs
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Scope of This Update
• Adding additional performance tier (Tier 3) based on new product in the market– Affects savings and costs for Tier 3 and Tier 2, since new product can
perform at either level based on user settings– New product is the only HPWH currently available at Tier 2 or Tier 3
• Revising current practice baseline definition– Affects savings and costs for all measures
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HPWH Market SnapshotEfficiency Tier Size (gal) ModelsTier 1 0-55 AO Smith SHPT-50
Rheem HB50>55 AO Smith SHPT-66
AO Smith SHPT-80Stiebel Eltron Accelera 220Stiebel Eltron Accelera 300
Tier 2 0-55 General Electric GEH50D*>55 General Electric GEH80D*
Tier 3 0-55 General Electric GEH50D**>55 General Electric GEH80D**
* Meets Tier 2 efficiency levels when set to default hybrid mode** Meets Tier 3 efficiency levels when set to Cold Climate Efficiency mode
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8
Tier 2 / Tier 3 Performance Update• Updated HPWH performance characteristics (e.g.
COP curves, control schemes) in SEEM to reflect new Tier 2/Tier 3 product– Added Tier 3 performance characteristics and measures– Replaced current Tier 2 performance characteristics (based
on Airgenerate ATI) with those of new product– Kept Tier 1 performance characteristics the same
• Note: Performance characteristics were derived from lab tests of new product (i.e. not field tests)– This is relevant to the “Research Strategy” portion of
today’s presentation
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Current Practice Baseline Update
Electric Resistance Water Heater (ERWH) can meet minimum Energy Factor for tanks 0 – 55 gal in size
Tier 1 Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) needed to meet minimum Energy Factor for tanks > 55 gal
• Current HPWH measure is “Under Review” due to uncertainty in baseline• Subcommittee discussed current practice baseline during 6/18 meeting• Key issue discussed: where to set baseline efficiency for various tank sizes in
light of the recent federal standard
April 2015 Federal Standard
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10
Current Practice Baseline Update• At subcommittee, CAT proposed keeping baseline definition
simple and combining all tank sizes in a single baseline (and measure)– As a result, all HPWHs have some savings, even Tier 1 tanks >55 gal
• Why may there be savings for Tier 1 tanks >55 gal?– Strong arguments that the actual purchased HPWH size is not
necessarily equal to the tank size purchased in the counterfactual• Common to upsize a HPWH relative to a resistance tank (e.g. 50 gal
electric resistance to 60 gal HPWH)• Specific makes and models only come in certain sizes• Tank size is only one of many deciding factors (price, reliability, availability)
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Current Practice Baseline Update• Feedback from subcommittee (and implementers
group):– Overwhelmingly supported concept of keeping the
baseline definition simple– Majority of subcommittee supported the CAT proposal and
combining all tank sizes– Some programs uncomfortable incenting >55 gal Tier 1
tanks, and would rather assume Tier 1 as the baseline. This means effectively that:
• All large HPWH purchases would have been large tank purchases in the counterfactual
• All small HPWH purchases would have been small tank purchases in the counterfactual
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Current Practice Baseline Update: A Tale of Two Baselines
• In summary, we have two different program views of the baseline
• CAT’s proposal for today:– Include measure sets for both baselines, i.e. one measure set for “any
size tank” and one set for small (0-55) and large (>55) tanks separately• Part of measure specification will be that programs can use only one
measure set or the other• Proposal is pragmatic, not perfect
– Use future regional research that addresses this question, but not add to the existing RTF research strategy at this time
• Consistent with RTF direction provided in April of this year• Allows region to focus on more tangible research questions already
identified in the strategy
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Summary of Baseline AssumptionsCurrent Practice Baseline
Description
Measure Identifier
Current Practice Baseline Assumption
Explanation of Baseline Assumption% ERWH
% Tier 1 HPWH
% Tier 2 HPWH
% Tier 3 HPWH
Small Tank / Large Tank
0-55 gallon tank 98 2 0 0
- HPWHs approximately 2% of electric storage water heater market share in the Northwest (for tanks 0-55 gallons), per NEEA market data
>55 gallon tank 0 80 20 0
- Assume Tier 1 HPWH as minimum baseline efficiency per the April 2015 federal standard
- Assume fraction of Tier 1 versus Tier 2 HPWHs based on current distribution of models available (slide 7).
Any Size Tank N/A 94 6 0 0
- Estimates penetration of HPWHs in the total electric tank market (all sizes)
- Next couple of slides explain the derivation of the assumed values
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Any Size Tank Baseline: Explained• Starts with the following assumptions:
– Prior to the 2015 federal standard, eligible end users are choosing tank sizes in proportion to the RBSA stock
– HPWHs have a small fraction of market share (from NEEA market data) for both small and large tanks
0-55 gals >55 gals0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
HPWHERWH
Tank Size
Num
ber o
f End
Use
rs C
hoos
ing
a Pa
r-tic
ular
Con
figur
ation
1.5%
88.8%
0.1%
9.6%
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15
Any Size Tank Baseline: Explained
• Then assume:– After the 2015 standard, 50% of large tank end users will
purchase large HPWHs, while 50% will purchase one or more small ER tanks
• Why 50%? This ensures that the sensitivity to savings is less than +/- 10% (turns out to be about +/- 7.5%)
• If we choose a fraction at one of the extremes (i.e. 0% or 100%), the impact to savings can be closer to +/- 15%
– The typical choices across all tank sizes will then be comprised of 6% HPWHs (1.5% + 0.1% + 9.6% * 0.5) and 94% ERWHs (88.8% + 9.6% * 0.5)
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16Efficiency Tier Install Location Heating Zone HVAC Type Tank Size
Tier 1 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Any
Tier 1 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small
Tier 1 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Any
Tier 1 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small
Tier 1 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Any
Tier 1 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small
Tier 2 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Any
Tier 2 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small / Large
Tier 2 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Any
Tier 2 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small / Large
Tier 2 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Any
Tier 2 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small / Large
Tier 2 Conditioned Interior, Exhaust-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Any
Tier 2 Conditioned Interior, Exhaust-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small / Large
Tier 3 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Any
Tier 3 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small / Large
Tier 3 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Any
Tier 3 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small / Large
Tier 3 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Any
Tier 3 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small / Large
Tier 3 Conditioned Interior, Exhaust-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Any
Tier 3 Conditioned Interior, Exhaust-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small / Large
Proposed Measure List Summary
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Updated Savings:Any Size Tank, HZ1
gas gas gas resist resist resist hp hp hp gas gas resist resist hp hpTier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3Uncond Garage Uncond
BasementCond Indoor, Non-Ducted Cond Indoor, Exhaust Ducted
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Current Proposed
kWh
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18
Updated Savings:Any Size Tank, HZ2
gas gas gas resist resist resist hp hp hp gas gas resist resist hp hpTier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3Uncond Garage Uncond
BasementCond Indoor, Non-Ducted Cond Indoor, Exhaust Ducted
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Current Proposed
kWh
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19
Updated Savings:Any Size Tank, HZ3
gas gas gas resist resist resist hp hp hp gas gas resist resist hp hpTier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3Uncond Garage Uncond
BasementCond Indoor, Non-Ducted Cond Indoor, Exhaust Ducted
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Current Proposed
kWh
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20
Updated Savings:0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, HZ1
gas
gas
gas
res
res
res
hp hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp
T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3Garage Base
mentIndoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
DuctedGar Base Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Current Proposed
kWh
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21
Updated Savings:0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, HZ2
gas
gas
gas
res
res
res
hp hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp
T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3Garage Base
mentIndoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
DuctedGar Base Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Current Proposed
kWh
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22
Updated Savings:0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, HZ3
gas
gas
gas
res
res
res
hp hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp
T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3Garage Base
mentIndoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
DuctedGar Base Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Current Proposed
kWh
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23
Updated Costs: Any Size Tank, All HZs
Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3Non-Ducted Exhaust Ducted
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Current Proposed
$
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24
Updated Costs: 0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, All HZs
Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3Non-Ducted Exhaust Ducted Non-Ducted Exhaust Ducted
0-55gallons >55gallons
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Current Proposed
$
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25
Updated TRC B/C Ratios:Any Size Tank, HZ1
gas gas gas resist resist resist hp hp hp gas gas resist resist hp hpTier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3
Uncond Garage Uncond Basement
Cond Indoor, Non-Ducted Cond Indoor, Exhaust Ducted
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Current Proposed
TRC
B/C
Ratio
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Updated TRC B/C Ratios:Any Size Tank, HZ2
gas gas gas resist resist resist hp hp hp gas gas resist resist hp hpTier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3
Uncond Garage Uncond Basement
Cond Indoor, Non-Ducted Cond Indoor, Exhaust Ducted
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Current Proposed
TRC
B/C
Ratio
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Updated TRC B/C Ratios:Any Size Tank, HZ3
gas gas gas resist resist resist hp hp hp gas gas resist resist hp hpTier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3
Uncond Garage Uncond Basement
Cond Indoor, Non-Ducted Cond Indoor, Exhaust Ducted
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Current Proposed
TRC
B/C
Ratio
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Updated TRC B/C Ratios :0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, HZ1
gas
gas
gas
res
res
res
hp hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp
T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3Garage Basement Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
DuctedGar Base Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Current Proposed
TRC
B/C
Ratio
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Updated TRC B/C Ratios :0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, HZ2
gas
gas
gas
res
res
res
hp hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp
T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3Garage Basement Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
DuctedGar Base Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Current Proposed
TRC
B/C
Ratio
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Updated TRC B/C Ratios :0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, HZ3
gas
gas
gas
res
res
res
hp hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp gas
gas
res
res
hp hp
T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3Garage Basement Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
DuctedGar Base Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust
Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Current Proposed
TRC
B/C
Ratio
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Delivery VerificationMeasure Specification
Delivery Verification Checklist
Component Specification Additional Notes HPWHsMeasure Identifiers
Efficiency Tier Tiers 1, 2, and 3 from NEEA's Northern Climate Heat Pump Water Heater Specification.
□ Check whether unit is installed in an unconditioned garage/basement or a conditioned interior space.
If unit is installed in conditioned interior space,
□ Check whether heating system is a gas furnace, resistance type (electric furnace or electric zonal) or a heat pump.
Install Location Unconditioned garage, unconditioned basement, conditioned interior.
□ Check whether exhaust air is ducted to the outside.
HVAC Type Gas, electric resistance (electric furnace or zonal), heat pump. Applies only to conditioned interior installs.
□ Check the heating zone.
Exhaust Ducting Ducted or unducted. Applies only to Tiers 2 and 3 and only conditioned interior installs.
Note: Delivery verification guidance for efficiency tier is provided below.
Heating Climate Zone
Heating Zones (HZs) 1, 2, and 3
Savings Baseline Current Practice N/AImplementation and Product Standards
NEEA Northern Climate Heat Pump Water Heater Specification
The specification and qualified products list (QPL) can be found at http://neea.org/northernclimatespec.
□ Check that unit is listed on the Northern Climate Specification QPL for the claimed efficiency tier or the unit meets all efficiency requirements of the Northern Climate specification for the claimed tier.
□ If tier qualification is dependent on operation mode, check that operation mode is set to the one required by the claimed tier.
Sunset Date 7/31/2016Sunset factors: Review market shifts and baseline assumptions.
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Research Strategy
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Background
• Res HPWH measure already has existing research strategy that was adopted at April 2015 RTF meeting– Existing strategy deals with HVAC interaction factor– Not proposing to open up this part of the strategy for
discussion
• Since then CAT has put research strategy in a new Word document template– No longer simply slides in a slide deck– Desire for research strategies to be stand-alone documents
with consistency in appearance and content for sharing with stakeholders
• Today’s proposal is to add a second objective to the existing strategy
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Why do we need additional research?
• Up to this point, performance characteristics for all HPWH models within SEEM have been calibrated to field data to reflect “real world” performance and savings
• The problem is:– We know that new products entering the market may perform very
differently than those of the past– It is not sustainable ($$$) to collect field data for every new model
that enters the market
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Why do we need additional research?
• We cannot calibrate HPWH performance to the DOE lab tests that are already being performed for each new model– DOE draw patterns are somewhat artificial and not
reflective of in situ draw patterns– Evidence that manufacturers “design to the tests” for
higher rated COPs– Ecotope compared lab calibrated results to field calibrated
results for older GE tank and found significant underestimation of resistance element use and overestimation of heat pump use
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Proposed Research
Add an additional lab test to the existing
DOE test suite which uses “real world”
water draw patterns collected from field
data
Perform new lab test on two
older tanks for which we have
field data
Compare the calibrated
performance characteristics
resulting from the lab data to those resulting
from the field
If results compare well, use new lab
test moving forward to calibrate tank performance and energy savings
This is documented in more detail in the Research Strategy posted on the agenda.
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Subcommittee Feedback
• Proposal was shared with both the technical HPWH Subcommittee and the Research and Evaluation Subcommittee
• Both subcommittees were satisfied with the approach
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Proposed Motion
“For the Residential Single Family and Manufactured Home HPWH UES measure, I _________ move the RTF:
• Approve the measure updates as presented;• Adopt the revised research strategy;• Keep the Category at Planning;• Change the Status to Active;• Set the sunset date to 7/31/2016.”