plano isd 10-year enrollment projections

© Copyright Metrostudy 20083Q08

Plano ISD Quarterly Economic and

Housing Analysis 3Q10

with 10‐year Enrollment Projections


Economic Conditions• DFW continues to lead the nation in annual job growth.

• Unemployment rate has dropped slightly over the last year as migration

to the DFW area slows employment gains.

– National unemployment rate at 9.2% (9.5%)*

– Texas unemployment rate at 7.9 % (8.1%)*

– DFW MSA unemployment rate at 7.9 % (8.3%)*

– Collin County unemployment rate at 7.2% (7.7%)*

• Texas is ranked 1st in annual SF permits at 69,031,Florida a distant 2nd

with 32,200 permits (August 2010)

• Apartment occupancy now exceed 91% on average as they benefit from

new residents.

• Regional starts saw a dramatic decline, down 21% from 2Q, following the

end of the tax credit. Primarily in the under $200K price point.

• Starts will likely remain down until 2nd

or 3rd

Quarter of 2011.

• New Home Closings increased as the last of the homes purchased using

the tax credit were closed.

• Plano ISD actually saw an increase in new home starts.

* Texas Labor Market Information –

September 2010 (September 2009)


Plano ISD

Foreclosures

3Q09: 2023Q10: 196


Plano ISD New Housing ActivityPlano ISD New Housing Activity

• Closing remained high following the tax credit expiration.• Increase in starts activity may be short lived as inventory remains high.

Starts 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Closings 2006 2007 2008 2009 20101Q 226 158 106 47 80 1Q 223 179 162 86 632Q 251 135 120 44 65 2Q 217 200 142 103 913Q 165 208 115 94 84 3Q 196 166 163 95 914Q 203 123 67 59 - 4Q 181 167 119 95 -Total 845 624 408 244 229 Total 817 712 586 379 245


Plano ISD Housing ActivityPlano ISD Housing ActivityBy Price PointBy Price Point

Regional decline in starts not felt in

Plano ISD as the upper price points have

fared better than those below $200K


3Q10 Annual Closings

Rank Subdivision Status Elementary Zone Middle School Zone High School ZoneSenior High School

Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings Occ. Models F/V U/C VDL Future Total

1 Morgan Crossing ACTIVE HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 29 0 58 10 149 0 2 1 4 53 2092 Suncreek Townhomes ACTIVE BEVERLY HENDRICK CLARK PLANO EAST 23 6 33 5 132 2 7 0 9 0 1503 Rolling Ridge Estates ACTIVE HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 21 9 26 16 492 1 4 5 43 53 5984 Oakpoint Estates Townhomes BO MCCALL BOWMAN WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 8 0 23 1 101 0 0 0 0 0 1015 Trails of Glenwood ACTIVE MCCALL BOWMAN WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 46 16 21 14 71 3 8 22 56 346 5066 Avignon on Windhaven ACTIVE BRINKER RENNER SHEPTON PLANO WEST 20 2 16 5 45 3 2 7 82 64 2037 Preston Villages Addition ACTIVE HIGHTOWER FRANKFORD SHEPTON PLANO WEST 21 7 15 0 34 2 0 11 13 57 1178 Oakpoint Estates ACTIVE MCCALL BOWMAN WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 3 0 15 0 127 0 2 0 0 0 1299 Hunters Landing (Murphy) ACTIVE BOGGESS MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 12 3 14 5 397 1 0 5 41 0 44410 Pointe West ACTIVE BARKSDALE RENNER SHEPTON PLANO WEST 11 3 13 2 26 1 3 3 13 0 4611 Town Homes at Legacy Town Center ACTIVE BRINKER RENNER SHEPTON PLANO WEST 19 5 13 7 167 0 7 0 115 82 371

TOTALS 213 51 247 65 1,741 13 35 54 376 655 2,874

Top 10 Subdivisons - 3Q10 (Ranked by Annual Closings)


3Q10 Future Inventory

Rank Subdivision Status Elementary Zone Middle School

Zone High School ZoneSenior High School

Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings


1 Trails of Glenwood ACTIVE MCCALL BOWMAN WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 46 16 21 14 71 3 8 22 56 346 5062 Parkway Heights Future SCHELL OTTO WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 171 1713 Creekside Estates (Wylie) ACTIVE HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 9 5 9 0 465 1 1 5 96 163 7314 Collinwood Farm Future BRINKER RENNER SHEPTON PLANO WEST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 137 1375 Stinson Highlands Future HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 121 1216 Lucas Farms Future HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 105 1057 Town Homes at Legacy Town Center ACTIVE BRINKER RENNER SHEPTON PLANO WEST 19 5 13 7 167 0 7 0 115 82 3718 Avignon on Windhaven ACTIVE BRINKER RENNER SHEPTON PLANO WEST 20 2 16 5 45 3 2 7 82 64 2039 Parkway Heights Townhomes Future SCHELL OTTO WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 5910 Estates at Creekside Future HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 58

TOTALS 94 28 59 26 748 7 18 34 349 1,306 2,462

Top 10 Subdivisons - 3Q10 (Ranked by Future Inventory)


Top Subdivisions: 3Q10 Inventory

1/3 of all new construction is occurring in Trails of Glenwood and Preston Villages Addition



Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings


1 Trails of Glenwood ACTIVE MCCALL BOWMAN WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 46 16 21 14 71 3 8 22 56 346 5062 Preston Villages Addition ACTIVE HIGHTOWER FRANKFORD SHEPTON PLANO WEST 21 7 15 0 34 2 0 11 13 57 1173 Avignon on Windhaven ACTIVE BRINKER RENNER SHEPTON PLANO WEST 20 2 16 5 45 3 2 7 82 64 2034 Rolling Ridge Estates ACTIVE HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 21 9 26 16 492 1 4 5 43 53 5985 Southridge Estates Addn. (Parker) ACTIVE HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 12 5 6 2 31 1 3 5 53 0 935 Creekside Estates (Wylie) ACTIVE HUNT MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 9 5 9 0 465 1 1 5 96 163 7315 Hunters Landing (Murphy) ACTIVE BOGGESS MURPHY MCMILLIEN PLANO EAST 12 3 14 5 397 1 0 5 41 0 444

TOTALS 141 47 107 42 1,535 12 18 60 384 683 2,692



Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings


1 Trails of Glenwood ACTIVE MCCALL BOWMAN WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 46 16 21 14 71 3 8 22 56 346 5062 Lexington Park at Rice Field ACTIVE MENDENHALL OTTO WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 0 0 4 0 5 1 8 0 84 0 983 Town Homes at Legacy Town Center ACTIVE BRINKER RENNER SHEPTON PLANO WEST 19 5 13 7 167 0 7 0 115 82 3714 Suncreek Townhomes ACTIVE BEVERLY HENDRICK CLARK PLANO EAST 23 6 33 5 132 2 7 0 9 0 1505 Villas of Stoney Hollow ACTIVE HICKEY BOWMAN WILLIAMS PLANO EAST 19 6 10 7 12 1 5 4 25 0 47

TOTALS 107 33 81 33 387 7 35 26 289 428 1,172

Top 5 Subdivisons - 3Q10 (Ranked by Homes Under Construction)

Top 5 Subdivisons - 3Q10 (Ranked by Finished Vacant Inventory)


Trails of Glenwood

Leads all subdivisions

71 Homes now occupied

Currently 22 homes under constructionVDL now stands at 56

New lot deliveries could be expected.(346 future)

Image date: December 2009

Preston Village Addition (Townhomes)

Leads all subdivisions

34 Homes now occupied

Currently 11 homes under constructionVDL now stands at 13

Future section will include 57 townhomes


Sub Totals by Elementary CampusElementary School

Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings Occ. Models F/V U/C

Total Inventory VDL Future Total

ALDRIDGE Total 1 0 3 0 22 0 1 0 1 28 0 51ANDREWS Total 0 0 0 0 1,346 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,346BARKSDALE Total 11 3 15 2 417 1 3 3 7 13 22 459BARRON Total 0 0 0 0 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 103BETHANY Total 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 76BEVERLY Total 23 6 33 5 1,264 2 7 0 9 9 0 1,282BOGGESS Total 12 3 14 5 1,567 1 0 5 6 41 0 1,614BRINKER Total 39 7 29 12 1,225 3 9 7 19 197 301 1,742CENTENNIAL Total 4 3 4 0 1,407 0 0 4 4 36 0 1,447DAFFRON Total 0 0 0 0 452 0 0 0 0 0 0 452DAVIS Total 0 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 78DOOLEY Total 2 1 4 2 439 0 0 2 2 5 50 496FOREMAN Total 0 0 0 0 122 0 0 0 0 0 0 122GULLEDGE Total 0 0 0 0 406 0 0 0 0 0 0 406HAGGAR Total 3 1 13 3 899 2 1 1 4 62 0 965HAUN Total 0 0 0 0 989 0 0 0 0 0 0 989HEDGECOXE Total 0 0 0 0 123 0 0 0 0 0 0 123HICKEY Total 19 6 10 7 973 1 5 4 10 45 0 1,028HIGHTOWER Total 21 7 15 0 626 2 0 11 13 13 57 709HUFFMAN Total 0 0 0 0 241 0 0 0 0 0 0 241HUNT Total 85 24 114 33 1,740 5 12 23 40 248 637 2,665JACKSON Total 0 0 3 0 307 0 1 0 1 20 0 328MATHEWS Total 0 0 0 0 2,284 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,284MCCALL Total 57 16 59 15 1,253 3 10 22 35 56 346 1,690MENDENHALL Total 0 0 4 0 1,019 1 8 0 9 84 0 1,112MILLER Total 7 4 4 0 1,450 1 1 4 6 4 0 1,460MITCHELL Total 0 0 0 0 727 0 0 0 0 0 0 727RASOR Total 0 0 12 6 819 0 0 0 0 92 0 911SAIGLING Total 0 0 0 0 219 0 0 0 0 0 0 219SCHELL Total 2 1 4 1 1,120 0 0 2 2 41 230 1,393SIGLER Total 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 7 20SKAGGS Total 0 0 0 0 930 0 0 0 0 0 0 930STINSON Total 3 2 1 0 1,544 1 0 2 3 25 60 1,632WELLS Total 0 0 0 0 362 0 0 0 0 0 0 362WYATT Total 0 0 0 0 1260 0 0 0 0 0 0 1260Grand Total 289 84 341 91 27,822 23 58 90 171 1,019 1,710 30,722

SUBDIVISION ATTENDANCE ZONE REPORT ‐ 3Q10


*Yellow box = largest grader per year*Green box = second largest per year

Enrollment History

School Year Households Population Enrollment Student per HH Annual Closings Enrollment Growth New Home Yield

2005/06 119,727 313,685 53,255 0.44 NA NA NA

2006/07 120,636 316,066 52,998 0.44 909 ‐257 ‐0.283

2007/08 121,362 317,968 53,683 0.44 726 685 0.944

2008/09 121,996 319,630 54,203 0.44 634 520 0.820

2009/10 122,399 320,685 54,939 0.45 403 736 1.826

2010/11 122,739 321,576 55,336 0.45 340 397 1.168

Student Housing Analysis

Year (Oct.) EE/PRE‐K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Percent2004/05 1,547 4,003 4,026 4,043 4,040 4,074 4,000 4,047 3,960 4,037 4,156 3,657 3,566 3,263 52,4192005/06 1,557 4,024 4,133 4,044 4,140 4,037 4,222 3,928 4,069 4,048 4,184 3,802 3,573 3,494 53,255 836 1.6%2006/07 1,524 4,039 4,096 4,114 3,973 4,093 4,034 4,126 3,912 4,078 4,154 3,734 3,654 3,467 52,998 ‐257 ‐0.5%2007/08 1,662 3,850 4,157 4,131 4,148 4,065 4,151 4,067 4,131 3,959 4,271 3,717 3,733 3,641 53,683 685 1.3%2008/09 1,704 4,007 4,017 4,172 4,192 4,195 4,075 4,180 4,097 4,199 4,141 3,795 3,705 3,724 54,203 520 1.0%2009/10 1,844 4,014 4,194 4,091 4,205 4,254 4,247 4,098 4,174 4,187 4,359 3,832 3,783 3,657 54,939 736 1.4%2010/11 1,788 3,903 4,102 4,229 4,148 4,199 4,307 4,220 4,199 4,217 4,333 4,103 3,791 3,797 55,336 397 0.7%

PLANO INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT - GRADE LEVEL ENROLLMENT


Enrollment Projections

*Yellow box = largest grader per year*Green box = second largest per year

As the district approaches build‐out enrollment

swings may occur but generally a change of less

than 1% can be expected.

Year (Oct.) EE/PRE‐K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Percent2004/05 1,547 4,003 4,026 4,043 4,040 4,074 4,000 4,047 3,960 4,037 4,156 3,657 3,566 3,263 52,4192005/06 1,557 4,024 4,133 4,044 4,140 4,037 4,222 3,928 4,069 4,048 4,184 3,802 3,573 3,494 53,255 836 1.6%2006/07 1,524 4,039 4,096 4,114 3,973 4,093 4,034 4,126 3,912 4,078 4,154 3,734 3,654 3,467 52,998 ‐257 ‐0.5%2007/08 1,662 3,850 4,157 4,131 4,148 4,065 4,151 4,067 4,131 3,959 4,271 3,717 3,733 3,641 53,683 685 1.3%2008/09 1,704 4,007 4,017 4,172 4,192 4,195 4,075 4,180 4,097 4,199 4,141 3,795 3,705 3,724 54,203 520 1.0%2009/10 1,844 4,014 4,194 4,091 4,205 4,254 4,247 4,098 4,174 4,187 4,359 3,832 3,783 3,657 54,939 736 1.4%2010/11 1,788 3,903 4,102 4,229 4,148 4,199 4,307 4,220 4,199 4,217 4,333 4,103 3,791 3,797 55,336 397 0.7%2011/12 1,788 3,926 3,994 4,135 4,289 4,205 4,230 4,330 4,246 4,246 4,484 4,057 4,045 3,751 55,726 390 0.7%2012/13 1,788 3,938 4,008 4,024 4,172 4,349 4,247 4,274 4,370 4,281 4,464 4,137 3,968 4,003 56,023 297 0.5%2013/14 1,788 3,911 4,043 4,038 4,072 4,217 4,401 4,268 4,328 4,411 4,520 4,196 3,931 3,928 56,052 29 0.1%2014/15 1,788 3,911 4,000 4,085 4,089 4,121 4,265 4,402 4,315 4,392 4,564 4,229 3,951 3,893 56,005 ‐47 ‐0.1%2015/16 1,788 3,950 4,020 4,036 4,119 4,132 4,176 4,271 4,447 4,379 4,626 4,245 4,102 3,911 56,202 197 0.4%2016/17 1,788 3,963 4,051 4,060 4,096 4,172 4,186 4,188 4,322 4,483 4,619 4,249 4,106 4,061 56,344 142 0.3%2017/18 1,788 3,994 4,060 4,090 4,110 4,158 4,227 4,192 4,217 4,380 4,723 4,259 4,119 4,065 56,382 38 0.1%2018/19 1,788 4,033 4,104 4,101 4,138 4,170 4,223 4,224 4,214 4,285 4,617 4,380 4,070 4,078 56,425 43 0.1%2019/20 1,788 4,059 4,139 4,153 4,160 4,195 4,227 4,229 4,285 4,272 4,518 4,214 4,292 4,030 56,561 136 0.2%2020/21 1,788 4,090 4,167 4,182 4,215 4,222 4,255 4,229 4,252 4,322 4,505 4,141 4,173 4,249 56,790 229 0.4%

PLANO INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT - GRADE LEVEL ENROLLMENT


Enrollment Projections by Campus

• Brinker, Hunt and McCall

currently have the greatest

amount of projected future

housing.• Hunt McCall and Beverly

have had the most activity or

new home closings in the past

year• Many attendance zones

have matured and their

enrollment may fluctuate

during the next 10 years with

declines followed by

regeneration

PLANO ISD CurrentCampus Name 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16Plano Fami ly Li teracy 0 18 25 25 25 25 25 25Head Start 147 144 143 143 143 143 143 143Aldridge Elementary School 545 548 554 544 537 552 549 570Andrews Elementary School 747 743 750 762 752 742 740 768Barksda le Elementary School 644 651 666 634 624 621 609 574Barron Elementary School 622 457 459 469 463 467 469 437Beaty Early Chi ldhood 415 587 637 637 637 637 637 637Bethany Elementary School 438 423 374 356 339 339 333 333Betty Haun Elementary School 594 564 544 491 451 435 422 401Beverly Elementary School 613 609 591 578 572 555 546 548Boggess Elementary School 522 798 842 866 894 888 855 818Brinker Elementary School 655 668 647 641 629 607 601 598Carl is le Elementary School 541 558 543 555 547 537 540 527Centennia lElementary School 514 520 530 524 544 536 539 541Christie Elementary School 812 798 794 789 774 766 763 778Daffron Elementary School 650 638 638 634 645 615 604 598David McCal l Elementary School 657 474 521 529 568 607 612 621Davis Elementary School 395 429 439 455 455 472 470 447Dooley Elementary School 453 424 433 436 429 445 439 428Forman Elementary School 606 571 547 568 584 596 610 641Gul ledge Elementary School 613 562 591 588 594 597 606 613Harrington Elementary School 464 446 417 418 423 418 436 464Hedgcoxe Elementary School 531 512 459 442 434 410 393 382Hickey Elementary School 581 577 611 639 644 649 649 649Huffman Elementary School 567 598 660 686 693 716 693 696Hughston Elementary School 443 439 426 420 402 393 410 416Isacc Early Chi ldhood 0 598 554 554 554 554 554 554Jackson Elementary School 681 708 692 713 712 711 706 705John Hightower Elementary School 514 522 495 485 493 491 494 499Martha Hunt Elementary School 783 620 625 638 647 661 678 695Mathews Elementary School 712 691 626 599 578 573 517 492Meadows Elementary School 490 547 545 590 619 614 606 606Memoria l Elementary School 636 447 434 423 398 399 392 396Mendenha l l Elementary School 528 551 565 576 584 610 617 634Mi l ler Elementary School 604 594 576 536 526 518 514 506Mitchel l Elementary School 579 624 674 698 730 740 759 772Pearson Early Chi ldhood 0 434 384 384 384 384 384 384Rasor Elementary School 484 504 493 473 474 463 447 437Rose Haggar Elementary School 612 632 608 618 614 621 610 607Sa igl ing Elementary School 388 407 386 379 375 359 361 369Schel l Elementary School 607 638 668 661 665 659 668 678Shepard Elementary School 435 432 457 455 471 486 486 496Sigler Elementary School 444 472 469 471 464 453 455 442Skaggs Elementary School 573 564 549 530 507 484 460 449Stinson Elementary School 711 758 765 748 750 763 730 728Thomas Elementary School 737 697 687 670 670 668 668 672Weatherford Elementary School 496 499 466 469 465 466 473 482Wel ls Elementary School 472 502 508 506 523 534 532 535Wyatt Elementary School 674 652 612 565 524 494 458 433Total Elementary 25,929 26,849 26,679 26,570 26,529 26,473 26,262 26,224Elementary growth 100 920 ‐170 ‐109 ‐41 ‐56 ‐211 ‐38

ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

PLANO ISD CAMPUS ENROLLMENT

PEIMS Projections



Middle Schools will continue to grow for the next few years

as large elementary grades move through the system

PLANO ISD CurrentCampus Name 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16Armstrong Middle School 818 773 763 738 724 729 785 805Bowman Middle School 1,002 987 761 860 906 950 975 1,029CM Rice Middle School 1,228 1,204 1,164 1,167 1,167 1,141 1,138 1,076Carpenter Middle School 914 878 864 878 907 920 907 869Frankford Middle School 1,114 1,130 1,192 1,183 1,217 1,203 1,212 1,200Haggard Middle School 901 875 894 898 921 909 897 892Hendrick Middle School 845 865 885 880 839 849 855 879Murphy Middle School 1,380 1,491 965 1,011 1,003 1,075 1,080 1,120Renner Middle School 1,251 1,241 1,319 1,300 1,325 1,330 1,372 1,401Robinson Middle School 1,063 1,085 1,046 1,034 947 980 939 948Schimelpfenig Middle School 972 953 998 966 945 861 895 869Wilson Middle School 988 977 948 989 1,011 1,022 1,024 999Otto Middle School 0 0 837 918 1,013 1,038 1,030 1,010Future Middle School 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tota l Middle School 12,476 12,459 12,636 12,822 12,925 13,007 13,109 13,097Middle School Growth 319 ‐17 177 186 103 82 102 ‐12

PEIMSMIDDLE SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Projections



• McMillen High opens and begins to relieve Williams beginning in

2011• Senior High School feeder patterns fully resolve in 2014/15

PLANO ISD CurrentCampus Name 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16Clark High School 1,280 1,348 1,354 1,544 1,767 1,782 1,748 1,729Jasper High School 1,869 1,954 2,057 1,873 1,727 1,759 1,706 1,646Shepton High School 1,543 1,599 1,613 1,652 1,671 1,705 1,744 1,737Vines High School 1,338 1,286 1,322 1,268 1,221 1,254 1,304 1,332Wi l l iams High School 1,905 2,001 2,090 1,122 1,085 1,083 1,253 1,323McMil len High School 0 0 0 1,117 1,198 1,198 1,171 1,235Future HS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total High School 7,935 8,188 8,436 8,576 8,669 8,781 8,926 9,002High School growth ‐50 253 248 140 93 112 145 76

PLANO ISD CurrentCampus Name 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16Plano Senior High School 2,689 2,673 2,476 2,494 2,495 2,283 2,188 2,550Plano East Senior High School 2,805 2,817 2,994 3,138 3,222 2,695 2,174 2,145Plano West Senior High School 1,934 1,948 2,118 2,164 2,254 2,881 3,482 3,346

Total Senior High School 7,428 7,438 7,588 7,796 7,971 7,859 7,844 8,041Senior High School growth 56 10 150 208 175 ‐112 ‐15 197Plano J J A E P 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL 53,770 54,939 55,339 55,764 56,094 56,120 56,141 56,364Student Growth 422 1,169 400 425 330 26 21 223Percent Growth 0.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%

PEIMS

PEIMS

HIGH SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Projections

Projections


Ten Year Enrollment Projections

PLANO ISD CurrentCampus Name 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21Clark High School 1,354 1,544 1,767 1,782 1,748 1,729 1,731 1,767 1,739 1,627 1,586Jasper High School 2,057 1,873 1,727 1,759 1,706 1,646 1,643 1,642 1,562 1,441 1,377Shepton High School 1,613 1,652 1,671 1,705 1,744 1,737 1,762 1,756 1,755 1,774 1,740Vines High School 1,322 1,268 1,221 1,254 1,304 1,332 1,295 1,276 1,273 1,280 1,293Wil l iams High School 2,090 1,122 1,085 1,083 1,253 1,323 1,246 1,306 1,371 1,336 1,385McMil len High School 0 1,117 1,198 1,198 1,171 1,235 1,245 1,290 1,354 1,325 1,311Tota l High School 8,436 8,576 8,669 8,781 8,926 9,002 8,922 9,037 9,054 8,783 8,692High School growth 248 140 93 112 145 76 ‐80 115 17 ‐271 ‐91

ProjectionsHIGH SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

PLANO ISD CurrentCampus Name 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21Plano Senior High School 2,476 2,494 2,495 2,283 2,188 2,550 2,860 2,832 2,773 2,810 2,836Plano East Senior High School 2,994 3,138 3,222 2,695 2,174 2,145 2,255 2,314 2,258 2,395 2,484Plano West Senior High School 2,118 2,164 2,254 2,881 3,482 3,346 3,176 3,155 3,158 3,159 3,148

Tota l Senior High School 7,588 7,796 7,971 7,859 7,844 8,041 8,291 8,301 8,189 8,364 8,468Senior High School growth 150 208 175 ‐112 ‐15 197 250 10 ‐112 175 104

TOTAL 55,339 55,764 56,094 56,120 56,141 56,364 56,525 56,557 56,526 56,657 56,885Student Growth 400 425 330 26 21 223 161 32 ‐31 131 228Percent Growth 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% ‐0.1% 0.2% 0.4%

ProjectionsSENIOR HIGH SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS


Plano ISD 3Q10 Summary• The housing market in DFW appears to have flattened but is not

expected to accelerate until Summer of 2011

• Townhome activity is strong in Plano ISD as builders . Parkway

Heights Townhomes announced this quarter with over 200 future

units.

• New Home closings in Plano ISD may be less than 350 during the

2010/11 school year.

• The district may continue to see moderate growth the next few years

as the current 1st

and 2nd

grade classes are over 800 students larger

than the existing 11th

and 12th

grade classes.

• Large elementary bubble may continue to impact district for next

10

years.

• The district may add 1,500 students during the next 10 years

• 2020/21 Projection : 56,790

plano isd 10-year enrollment projections

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