plans of meteoswiss for 2007/2008
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Plans of MeteoSwiss for 2007/2008. Philippe Steiner. 20th September 2007. Top priorities. Operationalisation of COSMO-2 until February 2008 still some migration work to do (frontend) Preoperational phase of CN MET starting October 2007 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Plans of MeteoSwissfor 2007/2008
20th September 2007
Philippe Steiner
2 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Top priorities
Operationalisation of COSMO-2 until February 2008• still some migration work to do (frontend)
• Preoperational phase of CN MET starting October 2007• Project for the security around the nuclear power plants• High resolution (time and space) wind fields in PBL
3 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Status at CSCS since July 2007
Cray XT4, 447 dual cores
IBM SP5, 768 cpu
2 nodes
SGI O3200, 8 cpu
number crunchersfrontends
Cray XT3, 68 dual cores
COSMO-2
COSMO-7DB and R&D
4 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Migration of frontend functions
Cray XT4, 447 dual cores
IBM SP5, 768 cpu
2 nodes
Replacement of IBM-nodes and SGI prob. by service nodes of Cray
SGI O3200, 8 cpu
number crunchers incl. frontend
Cray XT3, 68 dual cores
COSMO-2
COSMO-7DB and R&D
5 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Plattforms for operational suiteFinal configuration
Cray XT4, 447 dual cores
IBM SP5, 768 cpu
2 nodes
Use COSMO-7 at 6.6 km out of the cascade
SGI O3200, 8 cpu
number cruncher incl. frontend
COSMO-2&
COSMO-7DB and R&D
6 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-7
• Numerics based on Runge-Kutta• Switch from 7km to 6.6km
• Preparation for mosaic
• New SLEVE II coordinates• with constant lowest levels
• New 60 vertical levels• same as COSMO-2, similar to IFS
• Improvement of the PBL diagnosis
7 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-2
• Latent heat nudging• using Swiss radar composite
• New SLEVE II coordinates• with constant lowest levels
8 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Development activities
• Improvement of interpolation (INT2LM)• Thermodynamic: better relaxation of water species• Use diagnostic PBL height in the vertical interpolation
• Improved representation of the land surface• Measurement driven soil moisture analysis (MSMA)• Mosaic approach
• Assimilation of new observation streams:• wind profiles from VAD/sodar• humidity profiles from GPS-tomograpy
• Improve PBL analysis by use of near-surface observations
9 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Vertical Resolution in the PBL
• Experienced problems with high vertical resolution in COSMO
• Causes for the problems with a high vertical resolution in the PBL?• Investigate relationship between x and z in complex terrain• Improve coupling numerics/physics
Radiosonde
“High-resolution” COSMO
“Lower resolution” COSMOother
12 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Project D-PHASEexploit the collected information
Issues that can be addressed
• QPF Performance of today NWP models in the Alps? Dependency on considered temporal and spatial scales or on the intensity regime of the rainfall?
• Improvements: What strategy has the highest potential to improve QPF in near future: Higher spatial resolution, ensembles (of what type) or calibrated forecasts (e.g. EFI)?
• Processes: How well can high resolution NWP models represent the processes leading to precipitation?
• Predictability: Can we forecast the predictability? Are classical ensembles or multi model ensembles more skillful – or can we determine the predictability from existing parameters of deterministic forecasts (flow direction, stratification, weather regime, …)?
13 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Project NCCR climate IITask Reanalyse Extreme Events
• Complete 30 years of COSMO-LEPS climatology• Calibrate COSMO-LEPS and verify• Derive new warning products from calibrated COSMO-LEPS
for multiple parameters (precip., wind gusts, temperature, snow…)
14 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Project OptiControlObjective
Exploit newest developments in building & information technologies, weather forecasting, automation and control systems to improve the indoor climate control of buildings (energy efficiency, costs, comfort)
Participants Sponsors
Competence Centre Energy and Mobility of ETH
swisselectric research
ETH Zurich:IBZ & IFA
Empa
MeteoSwiss
Siemens Building Technologies
Siemens Building Technologies
15 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Project OptiControlmodel predictive control
(uncertain)occupancyforecasts
measurements
disturbances:weather, occupancy
(uncertain)weatherforecasts
hourlyinput
system constraints, comfort rules
model-based optimisation
Controller
room temp.
heating
cooling light
Building
energy efficiency, comfort
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
COSMO-LEPS
16 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Project OptiControlTargets of MeteoSwiss
model-based optimisation
Controller
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
COSMO-LEPS
(uncertain)weatherforecasts
amelioration of local forecasts for near surface parameters (T2m, GLOB, LWIN, v, …)
characterisation and quantification of uncertainties with focus on special weather situations
assess postprocessing methods, e.g.:
MOS (spec. COSMO-7)KalmanF (new for LEPS)
17 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
MOVI = MeteoSwiss Objective Verification Index• verification of Model- (DMO & Postprocessing) and Human-Forecast
• quantify the added value of postprocessing and forecasters• based on the UKMO approach • every forecast day from T+1 to T+7
• COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS, IFS• parameters verified:
• 2m-temperature: max, min• precipitation• relative sunshine duration• 10m-wind speed & direction
• methods for the score conversion:• Variance Reduction (continuous parameters)• Equitable Threat Score (categorical parameters)
VerificationIntroduction of a new global forecast score in 2008
18 Plans of MeteoSwiss | COSMO GM [email protected]
Thank you for your attention