plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

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Pira Futures Forecast – plastic packaging Pira Packaging Summit, Nice, France, 3-4 October 2011 Adam Page, Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy, Pira International Pira International, Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU [email protected] om

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An overview of plastic packaging markets to 2016, including trends, material developments, forecasts and technology analysis

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Page 1: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Pira Futures Forecast – plastic packaging

Pira Packaging Summit, Nice, France, 3-4 October 2011

Adam Page, Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy, Pira International

Pira International, Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU

[email protected]+44 (0)1372 802000

Page 2: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Agenda

Plastic’s share of the market Rise of Bioplastics Flexible packaging Rigid packaging

Beer in PET

Sustainability Outlook

Page 3: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Plastic’s Share of the Market

3

2011

Flexible packaging 20.4%

    Flexible plastic packaging - 13.6%

    Flexible foil packaging - 1.7%

    Flexible paper packaging - 5.1%

Rigid plastic packaging - 22.1%

Board packaging - 30.5%

Metal packaging - 15.6%

Glass packaging - 6.7%

Other packaging - 4.7%

2016

Flexible packaging 21.6%

    Flexible plastic packaging - 14.9%

    Flexible foil packaging - 1.7%

    Flexible paper packaging - 5.0%

Rigid plastic packaging - 24.4%

Board packaging - 29.4%

Metal packaging - 14.3%

Glass packaging - 6.4%

Other packaging - 3.9%

Source: Pira International Ltd

Page 4: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Plastic’s Share of the Market

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Substrate CAGR 2011-2016

Flexible packaging 4.8

    Flexible plastic packaging 5.4

    Flexible foil packaging 3.3

    Flexible paper packaging 3.4

Rigid plastic packaging 5.7

Board packaging 2.9

Metal packaging 1.9

Glass packaging 2.7

Other packaging (0.4)

Total 3.6Source: Pira International Ltd

Page 5: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Rise of bioplastics

xxxxxxxxxx: xxxxxxxxxxx

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The Rise of Bioplastics

Page 6: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

The Rise of Bioplastics

Retail and foodservice trays and containers are the largest single pack type for bioplastic packaging, followed by flexible film.

Flexible packaging to take a growing share of the bioplastic packaging market over the next five to ten years.

Demand will be driven by the commercialisation of bio-derived PE and PHA, and the wider availability and improved properties for biaxially oriented PLA (BOPLA) film.

Other factors: Green consumers New production capacities Price and availability of crude oil Government initiatives Composting infrastructure 6

Page 7: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

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Flexible Packaging

Flexible packaging is replacing traditional pack types such as metal cans, glass and plastic bottles

Page 8: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Flexible packaging trends

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Driver Focus area Likely outcome

Performance BarriersBetter barriers that potentially opens up new usage and new markets

     

Environment Biodegradables

Materials like PLA, cellulose or starch havea potential given that the barrier issuesare solved

  SustainabilityReduced packaging weight can be achievedby using flexible packaging solutions

     

 FunctionsSmart and Intelligent packaging

MAP and CAP packaging with suitablebarriers for longer shelf life

Nanotechnology

Potentially new barriers that promisesimproved shelf-life and possible newproduct opportunities

  New categoriesIncreased use for liquids where beverages would be a new growth area

  Consumer handling More functions to improve convenience

     

Source: Pira International Ltd

Page 9: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Brand owner perceptions

Versatility Comparative low cost Potential for innovation/replacement Lighter weight pack format Need for barrier

9

Page 10: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

End-use trends

Highest growth: Meat, fish & poultry Chilled food Fresh fruit & vegetables

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Page 11: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

End-use trends

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Global consumer flexible packaging consumption by end-use sector, 2006-16 (‘000 tonnes)

2011 (p) 2016 (f)

Food 13,365 16,665

Fruit and vegetables 577 773

Meat, fish and poultry 1,915 2,805

Frozen food 999 1,286

Chilled food 428 583

Ready meals 250 331

Dried food 1,491 1,702

Savoury snacks 1,295 1,564

Confectionery 1,835 2,171

Baked goods 1,575 1,836

Cheese/dairy 1,402 1,640

Tea/coffee 884 1,099

Other food 714 874

Beverages 731 928

Pet food 461 549

Cosmetics and toiletries 850 1,128

Pharmaceuticals and medical 1,362 1,776

Tobacco 636 644

Other non-food 664 797 Source: Pira International Ltd

Page 12: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Material trends

High polymer prices - driver for customers demanding even thinner films

Flexible plastics substituting paper and aluminium foil in some applications

Highest forecast growth rates for higher-barrier plastics such as BOPET, EVOH and PA

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Page 13: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Geographic trends

Asia is the fastest-growing market for consumer flexible packaging, with a forecast CAGR for 2011-16 of 7.9%.

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Page 14: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

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Rigid Packaging

Rigid packaging growth lies in new categories - food, personal care, etc. - and improving barrier properties

Page 15: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Rigid packaging trends

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Driver Focus area Likely outcome

Performance WeightThe light weighting process will continuefor yet a while.

  BarriersImproved barriers will attract new productcategories.

     

Environment RecyclingTo improve environmental profile the recycling rate has to improve.

  Light weightingLight weighting also for improving environmental profile.

     

 Functions In-house production Seen as more efficient by some fillers.

New categoriesThe basically untapped beer market wouldbe a major breakthrough.

  Substitution

There is still room for major substitutionsof other materials. The refillable glassbottle is one example.

 Smart and Intelligent packaging

New features improving convenience and quality for the consumer. Like the controlled release closure.

     

Source: Pira International Ltd

Page 16: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Brand owner perceptions

PET – huge success story PET has excellent performance properties such as good

transparency and its resistance to breaking (unlike glass)

Rigids have high level of penetration in key end-use sectors including soft drinks, fresh foods and non-food sectors, such as household care, personal care and healthcare products

High penetration in the advanced industrial countries of Western Europe, North America and Japan

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Page 17: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

End-use trends

Plastic bottles have achieved a high penetration for carbonated soft drinks and mineral water

Technology developments are paving the way for rigid plastic packaging in other drinks, including juices, sports and energy drinks, RTD teas and alcoholic drinks

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Page 18: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

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Huge potential for beer in PET – but will consumers will accept it?

Page 19: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Beer in PET

Exciting opportunity for brewers and brand owners lighter in weight than competing pack types can be further light-weighted like glass and cans, PET bottles can also be recycled

Drivers growing events market faster growth in off-trade beer sales developing barrier technologies emerging markets: opportunities to

influence consumption behaviours, rather than battle with established consumer attitudes such as glass is best

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Page 20: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Beer in PET

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Global PET beer bottle consumption by geographic region, (millions of bottles)

2007 2008 2009 2010 CAGR % 2007-10

2015 (f)

CAGR % 2010-15 (f)

Western Europe 730 722 724 732 0.1 799 1.8

Central & Eastern Europe

4,132

4,297

4,078

4,063

-0.6 5,312 5.5

North America 41 45 47 49 6.1 71 7.7

South & Central America 12 12 13 14 4.8 18 4.3

Asia-Pacific 688 967 1,022

1,071

15.9 1,478 6.7

Middle East & Africa 27 69 29 29 3.0 36 4.0

Total 5,630

6,114 5,913

5,959

1.9 7,714 5.3Source: Pira International Ltd

Main advantages of using PET bottles for beer

3.4

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.1

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Range of colours & sizes

Eliminating breakage in production

Cost saving across supply chain

Cost saving in production

Greater convenience

Market penetration where glass not suitable

Rating*

Page 21: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

What’s holding back beer in PET?

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2.9

3.5

3.6

3.8

3.9

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Development of competing plastic technologies

Good barrier protection while not adverselyaffecting recycling

Perception that plastic bottles taint flavour

Product sensitivity to oxygen

Consumer preference for glass and cans

Rating*

Note: a score of 1 = unimportant, 2 = not very important, 3 = fairly important, 4 = important, 5 = very importantSource: Pira International Ltd

Page 22: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Material trends

PET has overtaken PE as the leading polymer for rigid packaging

Bioplastics and barrier polymers such as EVOH are gaining market share

PET and PE dominate blow moulding

Injection moulding is dominated by PP

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Page 23: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Geographic trends

Asia overtakes both North America and Western Europe - one-quarter of world market tonnage

Emerging and developing countries of Asia, Central & Eastern Europe, South & Central America and the Middle East & Africa will be the main growth drivers

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Page 24: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Lightweighting

Average weight of a single serve 500ml PET still water bottle had declined by 26.7% to 13.83grs over the 2000 to 2008 period*

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* Source: International Bottled Water

Association

Page 25: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Sustainable packaging

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Page 26: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Recycling

The overall recycling rate for plastics is generally considerably smaller than the rate for metals, glass and paper. shorter history of plastics recycling; established recycling infrastructure for metals, glass and paper; complexity in recycling plastics due to the necessity for separating

plastics of different types

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Page 27: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Outlook for Plastic Packaging

Higher growth than overall packaging market Bioplastics – disruptive technology Barrier, lightweighting issues remain important New markets – beer in PET?

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Page 28: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

Thank you for listening.

Adam Page

Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy

Pira International

+44 (0) 1372 802 113

[email protected]

Page 29: Plastic packaging market trends and forecasts

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