plastic packaging market trends and forecasts
DESCRIPTION
An overview of plastic packaging markets to 2016, including trends, material developments, forecasts and technology analysisTRANSCRIPT
Pira Futures Forecast – plastic packaging
Pira Packaging Summit, Nice, France, 3-4 October 2011
Adam Page, Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy, Pira International
Pira International, Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU
[email protected]+44 (0)1372 802000
Agenda
Plastic’s share of the market Rise of Bioplastics Flexible packaging Rigid packaging
Beer in PET
Sustainability Outlook
Plastic’s Share of the Market
3
2011
Flexible packaging 20.4%
Flexible plastic packaging - 13.6%
Flexible foil packaging - 1.7%
Flexible paper packaging - 5.1%
Rigid plastic packaging - 22.1%
Board packaging - 30.5%
Metal packaging - 15.6%
Glass packaging - 6.7%
Other packaging - 4.7%
2016
Flexible packaging 21.6%
Flexible plastic packaging - 14.9%
Flexible foil packaging - 1.7%
Flexible paper packaging - 5.0%
Rigid plastic packaging - 24.4%
Board packaging - 29.4%
Metal packaging - 14.3%
Glass packaging - 6.4%
Other packaging - 3.9%
Source: Pira International Ltd
Plastic’s Share of the Market
4
Substrate CAGR 2011-2016
Flexible packaging 4.8
Flexible plastic packaging 5.4
Flexible foil packaging 3.3
Flexible paper packaging 3.4
Rigid plastic packaging 5.7
Board packaging 2.9
Metal packaging 1.9
Glass packaging 2.7
Other packaging (0.4)
Total 3.6Source: Pira International Ltd
Rise of bioplastics
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The Rise of Bioplastics
The Rise of Bioplastics
Retail and foodservice trays and containers are the largest single pack type for bioplastic packaging, followed by flexible film.
Flexible packaging to take a growing share of the bioplastic packaging market over the next five to ten years.
Demand will be driven by the commercialisation of bio-derived PE and PHA, and the wider availability and improved properties for biaxially oriented PLA (BOPLA) film.
Other factors: Green consumers New production capacities Price and availability of crude oil Government initiatives Composting infrastructure 6
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Flexible Packaging
Flexible packaging is replacing traditional pack types such as metal cans, glass and plastic bottles
Flexible packaging trends
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Driver Focus area Likely outcome
Performance BarriersBetter barriers that potentially opens up new usage and new markets
Environment Biodegradables
Materials like PLA, cellulose or starch havea potential given that the barrier issuesare solved
SustainabilityReduced packaging weight can be achievedby using flexible packaging solutions
FunctionsSmart and Intelligent packaging
MAP and CAP packaging with suitablebarriers for longer shelf life
Nanotechnology
Potentially new barriers that promisesimproved shelf-life and possible newproduct opportunities
New categoriesIncreased use for liquids where beverages would be a new growth area
Consumer handling More functions to improve convenience
Source: Pira International Ltd
Brand owner perceptions
Versatility Comparative low cost Potential for innovation/replacement Lighter weight pack format Need for barrier
9
End-use trends
Highest growth: Meat, fish & poultry Chilled food Fresh fruit & vegetables
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End-use trends
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Global consumer flexible packaging consumption by end-use sector, 2006-16 (‘000 tonnes)
2011 (p) 2016 (f)
Food 13,365 16,665
Fruit and vegetables 577 773
Meat, fish and poultry 1,915 2,805
Frozen food 999 1,286
Chilled food 428 583
Ready meals 250 331
Dried food 1,491 1,702
Savoury snacks 1,295 1,564
Confectionery 1,835 2,171
Baked goods 1,575 1,836
Cheese/dairy 1,402 1,640
Tea/coffee 884 1,099
Other food 714 874
Beverages 731 928
Pet food 461 549
Cosmetics and toiletries 850 1,128
Pharmaceuticals and medical 1,362 1,776
Tobacco 636 644
Other non-food 664 797 Source: Pira International Ltd
Material trends
High polymer prices - driver for customers demanding even thinner films
Flexible plastics substituting paper and aluminium foil in some applications
Highest forecast growth rates for higher-barrier plastics such as BOPET, EVOH and PA
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Geographic trends
Asia is the fastest-growing market for consumer flexible packaging, with a forecast CAGR for 2011-16 of 7.9%.
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Rigid Packaging
Rigid packaging growth lies in new categories - food, personal care, etc. - and improving barrier properties
Rigid packaging trends
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Driver Focus area Likely outcome
Performance WeightThe light weighting process will continuefor yet a while.
BarriersImproved barriers will attract new productcategories.
Environment RecyclingTo improve environmental profile the recycling rate has to improve.
Light weightingLight weighting also for improving environmental profile.
Functions In-house production Seen as more efficient by some fillers.
New categoriesThe basically untapped beer market wouldbe a major breakthrough.
Substitution
There is still room for major substitutionsof other materials. The refillable glassbottle is one example.
Smart and Intelligent packaging
New features improving convenience and quality for the consumer. Like the controlled release closure.
Source: Pira International Ltd
Brand owner perceptions
PET – huge success story PET has excellent performance properties such as good
transparency and its resistance to breaking (unlike glass)
Rigids have high level of penetration in key end-use sectors including soft drinks, fresh foods and non-food sectors, such as household care, personal care and healthcare products
High penetration in the advanced industrial countries of Western Europe, North America and Japan
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End-use trends
Plastic bottles have achieved a high penetration for carbonated soft drinks and mineral water
Technology developments are paving the way for rigid plastic packaging in other drinks, including juices, sports and energy drinks, RTD teas and alcoholic drinks
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Huge potential for beer in PET – but will consumers will accept it?
Beer in PET
Exciting opportunity for brewers and brand owners lighter in weight than competing pack types can be further light-weighted like glass and cans, PET bottles can also be recycled
Drivers growing events market faster growth in off-trade beer sales developing barrier technologies emerging markets: opportunities to
influence consumption behaviours, rather than battle with established consumer attitudes such as glass is best
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Beer in PET
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Global PET beer bottle consumption by geographic region, (millions of bottles)
2007 2008 2009 2010 CAGR % 2007-10
2015 (f)
CAGR % 2010-15 (f)
Western Europe 730 722 724 732 0.1 799 1.8
Central & Eastern Europe
4,132
4,297
4,078
4,063
-0.6 5,312 5.5
North America 41 45 47 49 6.1 71 7.7
South & Central America 12 12 13 14 4.8 18 4.3
Asia-Pacific 688 967 1,022
1,071
15.9 1,478 6.7
Middle East & Africa 27 69 29 29 3.0 36 4.0
Total 5,630
6,114 5,913
5,959
1.9 7,714 5.3Source: Pira International Ltd
Main advantages of using PET bottles for beer
3.4
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.1
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Range of colours & sizes
Eliminating breakage in production
Cost saving across supply chain
Cost saving in production
Greater convenience
Market penetration where glass not suitable
Rating*
What’s holding back beer in PET?
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2.9
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.9
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Development of competing plastic technologies
Good barrier protection while not adverselyaffecting recycling
Perception that plastic bottles taint flavour
Product sensitivity to oxygen
Consumer preference for glass and cans
Rating*
Note: a score of 1 = unimportant, 2 = not very important, 3 = fairly important, 4 = important, 5 = very importantSource: Pira International Ltd
Material trends
PET has overtaken PE as the leading polymer for rigid packaging
Bioplastics and barrier polymers such as EVOH are gaining market share
PET and PE dominate blow moulding
Injection moulding is dominated by PP
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Geographic trends
Asia overtakes both North America and Western Europe - one-quarter of world market tonnage
Emerging and developing countries of Asia, Central & Eastern Europe, South & Central America and the Middle East & Africa will be the main growth drivers
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Lightweighting
Average weight of a single serve 500ml PET still water bottle had declined by 26.7% to 13.83grs over the 2000 to 2008 period*
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* Source: International Bottled Water
Association
Sustainable packaging
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Recycling
The overall recycling rate for plastics is generally considerably smaller than the rate for metals, glass and paper. shorter history of plastics recycling; established recycling infrastructure for metals, glass and paper; complexity in recycling plastics due to the necessity for separating
plastics of different types
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Outlook for Plastic Packaging
Higher growth than overall packaging market Bioplastics – disruptive technology Barrier, lightweighting issues remain important New markets – beer in PET?
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Thank you for listening.
Adam Page
Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy
Pira International
+44 (0) 1372 802 113
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