platinum prices: look out below…

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Post on 16-Aug-2015

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The commodity selloff of the past year has been hard to ignore. Hard assets as a

whole have suffered from a surging US Dollar and ongoing concerns over global

growth.

One of the most noticeable markets controlled by commodity bears is

platinum.The once lustrous metal is down 35% from this time last year, and is

suffering from a 20% downturn in 2015 alone.

As you can see, after putting in a relatively strong January 2015

performance the metal has gone straight in the gutter. This year’s selloff

accelerated the past two months, which took platinum below $1,000 an ounce for

the first time since early 2009.

With that said, you can possibly make a case for buying platinum right now if

you’re an investor with a long time frame, and can withstand even lower prices.

Speaking of lower prices, look at this long-term chart…

As you can see the metal has nearly $150 an ounce further to fall before it reaches the 2008 low at $800 an ounce. Given the

overwhelmingly bearish sentiment and disastrous chart, this important price

point will likely be realized before 2015 comes to an end.

As you may know, South Africa is home to the world’s largest Platinum Group Metal

(PGM) mines and holds around 80% of the world’s proven reserves.

Platinum prices are so low that a large swath of the South African PGM mining industry is now producing the metal at a

loss.

The situation is so bad at Lonmin, one of the larger South African miners, the company is laying off 6,000 workers.

Folks, it’s only a matter of time before layoffs and mine closures become

widespread.

Once the South African PGM mining industry’s capitulation point is reached, that’s when bulls will likely return to the

platinum market.

With that said, it’s very challenging to accurately predict at what price that will

happen.

For now it’s best to just sit back and watch the fireworks as platinum plummets

to new multi-year lows.

Of the three platinum based commodity exchange traded funds available to

investors, there’s only one I feel relatively comfortable trading. The ETFS Physical

Platinum Shares $PPLT has a decent amount of intraday liquidity with a

manageable bid/ask spread.