please stand by for john thomas wednesday, march 20, 2013, san francisco, ca global trading...
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Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, March 20, 2013, San Francisco, CA Global Trading Dispatch. The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “The Cyprus Slam”. Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader San Francisco, March 20, 2013 www.madhedgefundtrader.com. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Please Stand By forJohn Thomas
Wednesday, March 20, 2013, San Francisco, CAGlobal Trading Dispatch
The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST
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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“The Cyprus Slam”
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
San Francisco, March 20, 2013www.madhedgefundtrader.com
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MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com
2013 Schedule-Updated
April 12 San FranciscoApril 19 ChicagoMay 8 Las VegasJuly 2 New YorkJuly 8 London, EnglandJuly 12 Amsterdam, Neth.July 16 Berlin, GermanyJuly 18 Frankfurt, GermanyJuly 25 Portofino, ItalyAugust 1 Mykonos, GreeceAugust 9 Zermatt, Switzerland
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MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com
ChicagoApril 19
San FranciscoApril 12
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Trade Alert PerformanceAnother all time high
*January +16.75% Dow +6.9% (2.4X) February +10.13% Dow +0.57% (18X) March +3.32%
*2013 YTD +30.2%, compared to 10.5%for the Dow, beating it by 19.7%, 3X
*First 114 weeks of Trading +85.25%*Versus +18% for the Dow AverageA 67.25% outperformance of the index, a 5X117 out of 164 closed trades profitable
71.3% success rate on closed trades
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Portfolio Review-Running smaller bookVolatility collapse causing options premiums to shrink,
increasing risk and reducing returns of option spread strategyrisk/reward not very favorable
1234
Asset Class BreakdownRisk Adjusted Basis
current capital at risk
Risk On
(SPY) 4/$145-$150 calls spread 10.00%
Risk Off
(SPY) 4/$160-$163 put spread -10.00%(FXY) 4/$106-$111 put spread -10.00%(FXY) 4/$107-$112 put spread -10.00%
total net position -20.00%
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Strategy Outlook-Buying the dips*Too late to buy, too early to sell
*Volatility is too low to sell, but may go lower
*Capitulation top in stocks now underway,expect ragged, choppy trading
*Roll forward short yen position on any 2 point pop in (FXY)
*Can’t establish put spreads in (SPX) or (IWM) as long as upside breakout underway
*Only add very deep OTM call spreads with room for a 10% correction
*Single stocks too risky because of greater volatility
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Performance Year to Date- +30.2%Biggest Performance Burst Since Launch
12/31/12
1/3/13
1/6/13
1/9/13
1/12/1
3
1/15/1
3
1/18/1
3
1/21/1
3
1/24/1
3
1/27/1
3
1/30/1
3
2/2/13
2/5/13
2/8/13
2/11/13
2/14/13
2/17/1
3
2/20/1
3
2/23/1
3
2/26/1
3
3/1/13
3/4/13
3/7/13
3/10/13
3/13/1
3
3/16/1
30.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Series1
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Performance Since Inception-Gone Hyperbolic+36.5% Average Annualized Return
12/8/10
1/5/11
2/2/11
3/2/11
3/30/1
1
4/27/11
5/25/1
1
6/22/1
1
7/20/11
8/17/11
9/14/1
1
10/12/11
11/9/11
12/7/11
1/4/12
2/1/12
2/29/1
2
3/28/1
2
4/25/1
2
5/23/12
6/20/1
2
7/18/12
8/15/1
2
9/12/1
2
10/10/12
11/7/12
12/5/12
1/2/13
1/30/1
3
2/27/1
30.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Series1
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The Goldilocks Economy ContinuesNot too hot, not too cold-95% of data points positive with no inflation
*Global synchronized recovery in play
* Feb nonfarm payroll +236,000
*unemployment rate 7.7% 4 year low
*Feb capacity utilization 79.1% to 79.6%
*US household wealth +1.8% to $66.07 trillion
*China data continues lukewarm to weak
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Weekly Jobless Claims-10,000 plunge to 332,000 is very market positive
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Bonds-Will the Safety Net Hold?*Ben Bernanke says he may never sell treasurieswill keep the $3.5 trillion he has until maturity
*Fed is buying more bonds than treasury issuance
*Hedge fund longs close to record highs
*$85 billion a month in bond buyingis still huge support
*New 10 year Treasury range is 1.80%-2.50%
*Sell every substantial rally in Treasuries,corporates, and municipals
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(TLT)
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Short Treasuries (TBT)See the 1:4 reverse Split—5% annual cost of carry
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Municipal Bonds (MUB)-3% yield,Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds
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(JNK)-chase for yield continues
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Stocks-The Uptrend remains
*Drift up at multiyear highs is incredibly bullish,the dip that never comes
*Will ramp up to quarter end closing
*Buy every “black swan” until proven otherwise
*Cyprus gave us a small 1.5% correction
*M&A Boom is creating equity shortage,takeover at triple 2012 levels
*At 15.5 X earnings stock are dead in the middle of their historic 9-22 valuation range
*Do we get the overshoot in April/May?
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Dow Average
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(SPY)-Long the 4/$145-$150 call spread-22 days to expiration
Long 4/$160-$163 put spread
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(SPX)-The 30,000 view FailHere
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Trading Market Tops-(SPX) H1, 2012
Long Call
Spreads
Long PutsandPut
Spreads
Long Put spreadsand
Call Spreads
VolatilityCollapses
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The Next TradeMarch $155-$158 Bear Put Spread, roll out to
April $158-$161 and May $161-$164*Profits in at all price points below $158 by April 19,or 32 trading days
*Profits in modestly rising, sideways, or falling market
*Mitigates some downside risk
*10% weighting =($0.30 X 100 X 37) = $1,110, or 1.11% for the notional $100,000 model portfolio, 100% = 11.1% a month
*Could be our core trade March-August
*We are closer to the top of the four year move than the bottom
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(QQQ)-Finally Waking Up?Awaiting a rotation-Apple stopped going down, others up
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(VIX)-Dying a slow deathheaded for the 9% handle
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(AAPL)-Reversal at Handwatch the 50 day moving average
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Google (GOOG)
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(BAC)-Buy the Dip
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United Airlines(UA)-the monopoly play
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Russell 2000 (IWM)
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Shanghai-Rolling overTaking commodities and oil with it
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(DXJ)-the only way to play Japan-Nikkei with hedged yen
Y150 targets (DXJ) at $80, up 100%
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My Dip Shopping ListStocks to buy on the dip
April, May Deep in-the-money Calls Spreads
Apple (AAPL)Google (GOOG)United Airlines (UAL)Bank of America (BAC)
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Dollar Taking a Breather
*Flight to safety on Cyprus send Euro to new lows
*Flight to safety into yen also,profit taking on euro/yen cross
*Huge jobs gain in Australia triggers2 cent pop
*Weak yen will continue with only minor blips
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Long Dollar Basket (UUP)
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Euro (FXE)Looking for a $1.26 bottom
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Australian Dollar (FXA)Huge Jobs gain delivers 2 cent pop
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Japanese Yen (FXY)long (FXY) 4/$106-$111 and $107-$112 in-the-money bear put spreads
use any yen strength to add to into April
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(YCS)-Profit taking on Euro/yen cross,Flight to safety yen bid triggers profit taking
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Energy-Saudi America Here We Come
*US energy independence in 3 years- CA + ND = Saudi imports
*No oil crash, supported by China demand
*Volatility has collapsed thanks to new balance
*US import dependence falls from 60% to 32% since 2005
*1 million b/d added fromBakken Shale in North Dakota
*Bigger untapped field in CA,the Monterey Shale
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Crude
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Natural Gas-Cold winter finally kicks in
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Copper (CU)-Ouch! Inventories double YOYon China drag
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Precious Metals-Still weak
*Gold mounts a weak rally,reversal unconvincinglook, but don’t touch
*Even “black swans” can’t get it moving
*Capitulation sell off below $1,500 setting up
*Who needs inflation hedge during deflation?
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Gold-signs of life
200Day MA
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Silver
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(Platinum) (PPLT)
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Palladium (PALL)
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The Ags-Still Asleep
*Corn finally bounces after worst move in 50 years,trend is still down
*High prices are curing high prices
*Awaiting next spikeup or down to tell us what to do
*Too many other things to do noware a low priority
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(CORN)
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DB Commodities Index ETF (DBC)
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Real Estate-the boom continues*Feb housing starts +0.8%
*Feb permits +4.6% to 946,0005 year high, still 43% of 2006 peak
*Inventories still an overhang
*Hope houses on weekends are mobbed across the country
*Better California neighborhoods up 25% YOY
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Real Estate-don’t touch the housing stocks-the risk/reward is terrible
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(ITB)-US Home Construction Dow Sub index
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Trade Sheet-No Change“RISK ON” has returned big time
*Stocks- buy the dips, running to a new high*Bonds- sell rallies under a 1.90% yield *Commodities-stand aside until global sell off ends*Currencies- sell yen on any rallies*Precious Metals –stand aside, wait for rebirth*Volatility-stand aside, will bounce along bottom*The ags –has gone dead, low priority*Real estate- rent, don’t buy
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To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please Go towww.madhedgefundtrader.com
Next Strategy Webinar Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Good Luck and Good Trading!