pocket guide to ethanol 2019€¦ · the pocket guide to ethanol is a quick reference of...
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POCKET GUIDE TO ETHANOL 2019
The Pocket Guide to Ethanol is a quick reference of significant statistics for American-made fuel ethanol. It is a companion to the Renewable Fuels Association’s (RFA) more comprehensive Annual Ethanol Industry Outlook publication. Find both resources online at https://EthanolRFA.org/resources/publications.
RFA has been the leading trade association for America’s fuel ethanol industry for nearly 40 years. Our focus is on advancing the development, produc-tion and use of ethanol and bio-products worldwide. RFA’s membership includes grain-based and advanced ethanol producers, the ethanol value chain, academia, and industry advocates.
Geoff CooperRFA President & CEO
1
WHAT IS ETHANOL?Ethanol is a biodegradable, high-octane motor fuel derived from the sugars, starches, and cellulosic matter found in plants. Most U.S. ethanol today is made from corn through the dry mill process. Corn production in 2018 neared record highs, but land dedicated to growing the feedstock has moved lower.
The industry continues to evolve with some plants adopting “bolt-on” technologies and integrating new process/refining technologies to capture more value-added co-products.
Corn/Sorghum/Cellulosic Bomass 2.9%
Corn/Sorghum 2.1%
Cellulosic Biomass 0.5%
Food/Beverage Waste 0.2%
Corn Starch94.3%
U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity by Feedstock Type
Source: RFA
Dry Mill91.1%
Wet Mill8.9%
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production by Technology Type
Source: RFA based on data from U.S. Dept. of Agriculture
Geoff CooperRFA President & CEO
POWERING FORWARD The United States led the world in ethanol production in 2018 with a record output of 16.1 billion gallons. In fact, output was double the volume generated by Brazil—the world’s second largest producer.
21980
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2012
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2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
16,100
175
Mill
ion
Gal
lons
Historic U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
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1995
1996
1997
1998
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2000
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2008
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2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
16,100
175
Mill
ion
Gal
lons
Historic U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production
Source: RFA and U.S. Energy Information Administration *Estimated
3
Source: RFA and U.S. Energy Information Administration *Estimated European Union; 1,430; 5%
China; 1,180; 4%
Canada; 480; 2%
Thailand; 390; 1%
India; 330; 1%
Argentina; 290; 1%
Rest of World; 550; 2%
Brazil; 7,950; 28%
United States; 16,100; 56%
2018 Global Fuel Ethanol Production by Country
Source: RFA analysis of public and private data sources
There are 210 ethanol biorefineries located in 27 states. Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois account for half of production capacity.
Installed Ethanol BiorefineryNew Biorefinery Under Construction*
RI
VT
NJ
DEDC
CT
NH
MA
MD
ID
NMAZ
CA
OR
NV
WA
MT NDMN
WI
LATX
COUT
WYSD
NE
KS
OK AR
MO
IA
FL
MI NY
PA
WVVA
NC
SC
GA
ALMS
IL IN
OH
KY
TN
ME
*Excludes expansion projects
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Biorefineries by State
(Country, million gallons, share of global production)
Installed Ethanol BiorefineryNew Biorefinery Under Construction*
RI
VT
NJ
DEDC
CT
NH
MA
MD
ID
NMAZ
CA
OR
NV
WA
MT NDMN
WI
LATX
COUT
WYSD
NE
KS
OK AR
MO
IA
FL
MI NY
PA
WVVA
NC
SC
GA
ALMS
IL IN
OH
KY
TN
ME
*Excludes expansion projects
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Biorefineries by State
POWERFUL NUTRITIONThe ethanol industry generated a record 41.3 million metric tons of distillers grains and gluten feed/meal. These co-products are a consistent and cost-effective input for animal feed around the world.
On average, 1 bushel of corn (56 pounds) processed by a dry mill ethanol biorefinery produces:• 2.86 gallons of denatured fuel ethanol• 15.9 pounds of distillers grains animal feed (10% moisture)• 0.75 pounds of corn distillers oil• 16.5 pounds of biogenic carbon dioxide
Source: RFA based on data from U.S. Dept. of Agriculture
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Thou
sand
Met
ric T
ons
2018*
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Distillers Grains Corn Gluten Feed Corn Gluten Meal 37,094 3,521
670 U.S. Ethanol Industry Co-product Animal Feed Output
Source: RFA and U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Note: All co-products converted to 10% moisture basis *Estimated
4
Biorefineries produced a record 4 billion pounds of corn distillers oil, used as a feed ingredient or biodiesel feedstock.
On average, 1 bushel of corn (56 pounds) processed by a dry mill ethanol biorefinery produces:• 2.86 gallons of denatured fuel ethanol• 15.9 pounds of distillers grains animal feed (10% moisture)• 0.75 pounds of corn distillers oil• 16.5 pounds of biogenic carbon dioxide
Source: RFA and U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Note: All co-products converted to 10% moisture basis *Estimated
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
Mill
ion
Poun
ds
2017
2018*
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
4,000Corn Distillers Oil Production
Beef Cattle , 46%
Dairy Cattle , 31%
Swine , 15%
Poultry , 7% Other , 1%
Distillers Grains Consumption by Specie
Source: Distillers grains marketing companies
5
ENERGIZING GLOBAL MARKETSIn 2018, U.S. ethanol exports swelled 20% to a new record high of 1.6 billion gallons worth an estimated $2.7 billion. This means 1 of every 10 gallons produced was shipped outside our borders, with half of exports destined for Brazil and Canada.
2018*
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
20001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000
800600400200
0200400600800
Mill
ion
Gal
lons
Exports Imports Net Exports
U.S. Ethanol Exports and Imports
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics *Based on Jan.-Sep. 2018
6
TOP 5Destinations for
U.S. Ethanol in 2018
BrazilCanada IndiaSouth KoreaNetherlands
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics *Based on Jan.-Sep. 2018
TOP 5Destinations for
U.S. DistillersGrains in 2018
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics *Based on Jan.-Sep. 2018
U.S. biorefineries satisfied growing domestic feed needs while also exporting nearly 1 of every 3 tons of distillers grains, or 12.1 mil-lion metric tons. In 2018, 4 countries purchased half of all U.S. DDGS exports while remaining volumes shipped to another 60 around the globe.
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Thou
sand
Met
ric T
ons
2017
2018*
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
200512,100
U.S. Distillers Grains Exports
7
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics *Based on Jan.-Sep. 2018
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics *Based on Jan.-Sep. 2018
TOP 5Destinations for
U.S. DistillersGrains in 2018
MexicoSouth KoreaTurkeyVietnamThailand
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics *Based on Jan.-Sep. 2018
8
ETHANOL’S REFINERY POWEREthanol is increasingly becoming a valuable octane source with an octane rating of 114. Most refiners add 10% ethanol to upgrade gasoline blend-stock from 84 octane to 87 octane—the minimum allowable for “regular” grade gasoline.
15%14%13%12%11%10%
9%8%7%6%5%
Prem
ium
Sha
re o
f Gas
olin
e Sa
les
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% Pric
e D
iffer
ence
Bet
wee
n Pr
emiu
m a
nd R
egul
ar G
asol
ine
Premium Share of Gasoline Sales Retail Price Spread: Premium vs. RegularWholesale Price Spread: Premium vs. Regular
Premium Gasoline: Share of Sales and Price Difference vs. Regular
Source: RFA based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data
300
250
200
150
100
50
0Alkylate Reformate Toluene MTBE Ethanol ETBE Naphtha
Blend Value Market Price
Cent
s/G
allo
n
Octane Blending Value vs Market Price
Source: Argus Media
9
9395
101104
107110
117
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
GasolineBlendstock
n-Butane Alkylate Benzene Toluene Xylene MTBE Ethanol Methanol
Oct
ane
Ratin
g
Gasoline Blendstock
84
Ethanol 114
Blending Octane Ratings of Various Gasoline Octane Boosters
Source: Department of Energy
Source: EIA, MathPro Inc.Source: RFA based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data
Ethanol blending has broken through the so-called “blend wall” and hit a record 10.75% blend rate in January 2018. However, demand destruction caused by EPA’s “small refinery exemptions” dropped the average blend rate below 10% for much of the year.
Source: Argus Media
CONSTRAINED SUPPLY• Increased volume of light tight oil
(LTO) and condensate Produces lower quality gasoline
blendstock (more low-octane naptha)• Octane loss from tighter sulfur
standards• Refining industry slow to add
octane-producing capacity
INCREASED DEMAND• Higher domestic demand for all
gas grades• Demand for premium is rising (as
share of total) Higher compression and turbo charging• Increased export demand for
gasoline and high-octane blendstocks
Why is the Value of Octane Increasing?
10
EMPOWERING E15Since its approval by U.S. EPA, more than 5 billion trouble-free miles have been driven on E15. In 2018, access to E15 increased 33% as nearly 1,600 stations offered the fuel in 30 states. President Trump issued a directive to U.S. EPA to initiate a rulemaking allowing the year-round use of E15. If implemented, E15 sales could grow significantly in 2019, perhaps approaching 800 million gallons.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
1,575
Source: RFA
U.S. Retail Stations Offering E15
11
FLEXING MUSCLEFlex fuel consumption hit new heights in 2018. Nearly 1 of every 10 vehi-cles is a Flex Fuel Vehicle (FFV) approved to use Mid-Level Ethanol Blends (20-50% ethanol) and E85 (51-83% ethanol). Roughly 4,500 stations in 2,500 cities across America have blender pumps offering flex fuels.
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Num
ber o
f Sta
tions 3,316
2,674
2,078
762
188113
4,500U.S. Retail Stations Offering E85 and Other Flex Fuels
Sources: RFA and U.S. Dept. of Energy
$3.10
$2.90
$2.70
$2.50
$2.30
$2.10
$1.90
$1.70
$1.50Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18
E10 E85
National Average Retail Prices for E10 and E85
Source: E85prices.com
12
RENEWING THE RURAL ECONOMYThe U.S. ethanol industry provides a critically important market for corn and sorghum producers, a consistent low-cost feed source for livestock, bio-products for industrial uses, and feedstock for biodiesel.
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
Billi
on $
U.S. Net Farm Income
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture
Ethanol’s Value-Added PropositionBased on average prices and product yields in 2018, a typical dry mill ethanol plant was adding nearly $2 of additional value—or 55%—to every bushel of corn processed. VALUE OF OUTPUTS PER BUSHEL
Ethanol $3.84Distillers Grains $1.16Corn Distillers Oil $0.19
TOTAL $5.19
CORN COST PER BUSHEL
$3.35
13
VALUE OF OUTPUTS PER BUSHELEthanol $3.84Distillers Grains $1.16Corn Distillers Oil $0.19
TOTAL $5.19
The ethanol industry yields tremendous economic impacts for the rural economy and America as a whole. And 1 in 4 employees is a military veteran—four times the national average.
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Mill
ion
Dol
lars
Ethanol Co-products
2018*
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
$7.691$22,089
Gross Value of U.S. Ethanol Industry Output
Source: RFA based on U.S. Dept. of Agriculture data * Estimated
In 2018, the production of 16.1 billion gallons of ethanol and 43 million metric tons of co-products and distillers oil had substantial economic impacts, including:
• 71,367 direct jobs• 294,516 indirect and induced jobs• $46 billion contribution to GDP• $25 billion in household income• $10 billion in tax revenue
14
EMPOWERING CONSUMERSIn 2018, U.S. farmers harvested the second-largest corn crop ever. On a net basis, the U.S. ethanol industry used less than 3% of global grain supplies. More corn and co-products were available to livestock and poultry feeders than ever before. Meanwhile, average annual food inflation has averaged just 1.7% over this decade. The debunked “food vs. fuel” myth drifts another year further into the rearview mirror.
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1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2113
2114
2115
2116
2117
2118
*
9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%
18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-
Year-Over-Year In�ation Rate (Left Axis) Ethanol Production (Right Axis) In�ation Rate Trend
Mill
ion
Gal
lons
Year
-On-
Year
Foo
d In
�atio
n
U.S. Food Price Inflation and Ethanol Production
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and RFA *Estimated
15
POWERING ENERGY DOMINANCEEnergy security is one of the main drivers behind the RFS. In 2018, the addition of 16.1 billion gallons of ethanol to the U.S. fuel supply displaced an equivalent 550 million barrels of oil. Without the contribution of 16.1 billion gallons of ethanol, U.S. import dependence would have been equivalent to 20% of petroleum demand.
231
330399
485 508 484 485522 540 564 582
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*Mill
ion
Barr
els
of O
il D
ispla
ced 700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
594Historic Oil Import Displacement by Ethanol
Source: RFA based on U.S. Dept. of Energy data *Estimated
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2113
2114
2115
2116
2117
2118
*
Actual Import Dependence Import Dependence Without Ethanol
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
54%
53%
61%
58% 45%
40%20%
14%
U.S. Petroleum Net Import Dependence with and without Ethanol
Source: RFA based on U.S. Dept. of Energy data *Estimated
16
CLEARING THE AIREthanol displaces hydrocarbon substances like aromatics in gasoline, help-ing to reduce emissions of air toxics along with particulate matter, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and exhaust hydrocarbons. These pollutants cause smog and ground-level ozone and adversely affect human health.
120,000 1,0009008007006005004003002001000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
CO &
NO
x (0
00 T
ons)
PM (0
00 T
ons)
1990
2008
2017
Carbon Monoxide (CO)Nitrogen Oxide (NOx)Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
Emissions from All Highway Vehicles
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Energy and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Corn ethanol from a typical dry mill has 40-45% lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than gasoline (this includes theoretical land use change emissions). As a result, the industry has contributed extensively to meet-ing California’s Lower Carbon Fuel Standard.
120,000 1,0009008007006005004003002001000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
CO &
NO
x (0
00 T
ons)
PM (0
00 T
ons)
1990
2008
2017
Carbon Monoxide (CO)Nitrogen Oxide (NOx)Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
Improvements Since Passage of the RFS2 2007 2018 % ChangeGHG Emissions Avoided from using Ethanol (million tons CO2e) 12.7 55.0 +291%Carbon Monoxide Concentration (parts per million) 1.91 1.34 -30%Ozone Concentration (parts per million) 0.078 0.067 -13%Coarse Particulate Matter Concentration (micrograms per m3) 71.83 69.82 -3%Fine Particulate Matter Concentration (micrograms per m3) 11.93 8.02 -33%
Source: RFA using CARB and EPA data
RFA STAFFSt. Louis, MOGeoff Cooper President and CEOKelly Davis Vice President of Regulatory AffairsScott Richman Chief EconomistAnn Lewis Research AnalystJacqueline Pohlman Manager of Member RelationsKelsey Quargnenti Digital Marketing Coordinator
Other Midwest StaffRobert White Vice President of Industry RelationsCassie Mullen Director of Market DevelopmentMissy Ruff Technical Services Manager
Washington, DCBob Dinneen Senior Strategic AdvisorJessica Bennett Vice President, Government & External AffairsEdward S. Hubbard, Jr. General CounselRachel Gantz Communications DirectorMary Giglio Director of Special Projects & EventsConnor Hamburg Director of Government AffairsTony Dennis Office Manager
RFA OFFICERSChairman Neil Koehler Pacific Ethanol Inc.
Vice Chair Jeanne McCaherty Guardian Energy LLC
Treasurer Charles Wilson Trenton Agri Products LLC
120,000 1,0009008007006005004003002001000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
CO &
NO
x (0
00 T
ons)
PM (0
00 T
ons)
1990
2008
2017
Carbon Monoxide (CO)Nitrogen Oxide (NOx)Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
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