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National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150

Boulder, Colorado 80301

Points to Remember About California Higher Education

California Assembly Higher Education Committee Sacramento, CA

February 19, 2013

Dennis Jones, President

Point 1

• California needs a better educated Population/workforce in order to be globally competitive

– California lags many countries and other states

– It is losing ground

– 3.5 million more graduates than current production levels will yield

2

Comparing California with Nations and Other States in the Percentage of Young Adult Degree Attainment

(Ages 25-34)

U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (65.0)

60

58

56 Japan, Canada

Massachusetts 54

North Dakota 52

Minnesota New York 50

New Jersey 48 Ireland New Hampshire Norway

Connecticut Iowa 46 New Zealand, United Kingdom Virginia Illinois Maryland South Dakota

Pennsylvania Nebraska Colorado Vermont 44 Australia, Luxembourg, Israel, Belgium Rhode Island Kansas France Montana Wisconsin 42 UNITED STATES, Sweden

Washington Netherlands, Switzerland Missouri Hawaii 40

Wyoming Maine Delaware Utah Finland, Spain, Chile Ohio California Oregon 38 Estonia, Denmark Michigan North Carolina Poland

Indiana Florida South Carolina 36 Iceland Georgia

Alaska Kentucky Tennessee 34 Arizona Mississippi Texas

Alabama Idaho 32 Louisiana Slovenia, Greece

Oklahoma Arkansas West Virginia 30

Nevada 28 New Mexico

26 Germany, Hungary Portugal

24 Slovak Rep Czech Rep

22 Mexico Austria, Italy

20

Source: 2012 OECD Education at a Glance; 2010 American Community Survey

Turkey (17.4)

Percent of 25-64 Year Olds with College Degrees – Associate and Higher, 2011

50.8

47

46.6

46.4

46.2

45.8

45.4

45.1

45

44.7

44.6

43.3

43.2

41.7

41.6

41.5

41.1

40.7

40.3

40

39.6

39.4

39.2

39

38.9

38.7

38.6

38.2

37.6

37

36.8

36.5

36.4

36.4

36.2

35.8

35.5

34.5

34.4

34.2

33.9

33.8

33

32.1

31.9

30.8

30.3

30

28.2

27.9

27.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mass

ach

use

tts

Colo

rado

Min

neso

taConnect

icut

Verm

ont

New

Ham

psh

ire

Mary

land

New

Jers

ey

Virgin

iaN

ort

h D

akota

New

York

Wash

ingto

nRhode I

sland

Illin

ois

Haw

aii

Nebra

ska

Iow

aKansa

sU

tah

Main

eW

isco

nsi

nSouth

Dakota

Monta

na

Ore

gon

Calif

orn

iaN

ation

Pennsy

lvania

Nort

h C

aro

lina

Dela

ware

Flo

rida

Mic

hig

an

Idaho

Georg

iaM

isso

uri

Wyom

ing

Arizo

na

Ohio

Texas

Ala

ska

South

Caro

lina

New

Mexic

oIn

dia

na

Okla

hom

aTenness

ee

Ala

bam

aKentu

cky

Mis

siss

ippi

Nevada

Ark

ansa

sLouis

iana

West

Virgin

ia

slide 4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

Difference in College Attainment between Young Adults (25-34) and Older Adults (45-64), 2011

slide 5

11.1

9.7

9.3

9.2

8.9

8.4

7.2

7.2

6.6

6.4

6.0

5.9

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.4

3.3

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.3

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.2

-0

.3

-0.4

-0

.8

-1.1

-1

.1

-1.3

-1

.7

-1.8

-2

.4

-2.4

-3

.6

-5.2

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Io

wa

Nort

h D

akota

South

Dakota

Pennsy

lvania

New

York

Min

neso

taIllin

ois

Mass

ach

use

tts

Mis

souri

West

Virgin

iaIn

dia

na

Ohio

Kentu

cky

Louis

iana

Wis

consi

nN

ebra

ska

Virgin

iaN

ew

Jers

ey

Kansa

sArk

ansa

sM

onta

na

Tenness

ee

Ala

bam

aN

ation

Mic

hig

an

Mis

siss

ippi

Nort

h C

aro

lina

Verm

ont

Mary

land

South

Caro

lina

Wyom

ing

Georg

iaD

ela

ware

Flo

rida

Okla

hom

aConnect

icut

Uta

hN

ew

Ham

psh

ire

Main

eRhode I

sland

Texas

Ore

gon

Calif

orn

iaW

ash

ingto

nColo

rado

Idaho

Arizo

na

Ala

ska

Haw

aii

Nevada

New

Mexic

o


Percentage of Jobs in 2018 that Will Require a Postsecondary Education, by State

slide 6

70 7068

67 6766 66 66

65 6564 64 64 64 64 64

63 6362 62 62 62 62 62

61 61 61 61 6159 59 59 59 59

58 5857 57 57

56 5655 55

54 54 54 5452

5149

45

50

55

60

65

70

75N

DM

NM

AC

OW

AN

EU

TM

D HI

CT IL KS

VA

NH NJ

OR

NY

AK

MI

WY

MT

VT IA SD WI

ID RI

CA AZ

NC

ME FL

MO DE

GA

NM OH PA

OK

TX

SC AL

IN NV

TN

MS

KY

AR LA WV

National Average = 63%

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018; June 2010

Change in Jobs by Education Level: 2008 and 2018

slide 7

California’s Rank in Jobs Forecasted for 2018, by Education Level

Education Level 2018 Jobs Rank

High School Dropouts 3,163,000 2

High School Graduates 4,198,000 50

Some college, no degree 1,582,000 39

Associate’s degree 4,042,000 33

Bachelor’s degree 3,937,000 21

Graduate degree 1,961,000 15

Education Level 2008 Jobs 2018 Jobs Difference

High School Dropouts 2,914,000 3,163,000 249,000

High School Graduates 3,833,000 4,198,000 365,000

Postsecondary 10,195,000 11,522,000 1,327,000

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018; June 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

California Personal Income per Capita as a Percent of the U.S. Average (1980 to 2010)

118.2

114.6

110.5

105.3

110.2

107.2 106.2

80

90

100

110

120

130

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Point 2

• There are substantial inequities in education attainment

– By race/ethnicity

– By region within the state

– Becoming globally competitive will require removing inequities

9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey

Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities (Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans) (2008-10)

35.1

34.5

33.7

32.1

29.5

29.5

29.3

29.0

28.8

28.5

28.4

27.6

26.8

26.3

26.1

25.8

25.6

25.4

25.3

25.3

24.0

23.2

23.1

22.6

22.3

22.3

22.2

21.7

21.5

21.3

21.1

20.9

20.0

19.5

19.3

16.9

16.8

16.3

15.7

15.5

15.2

15.0

14.9

14.8

13.5

13.4

13.0

12.0

8.8

8.5

8.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Colo

rado

Nebra

ska

Calif

orn

iaConnect

icut

Min

neso

taRhode I

sland

New

Jers

ey

Illin

ois

New

York

South

Dakota

Mass

ach

use

tts

Iow

aU

tah

Idaho

Wis

consi

nKansa

sW

ash

ingto

nArizo

na

Texas

Ore

gon

New

Mexic

oN

ation

Pennsy

lvania

Dela

ware

Virgin

iaN

ort

h C

aro

lina

Mary

land

Haw

aii

Ala

ska

Nevada

Nort

h D

akota

South

Caro

lina

Mic

hig

an

Monta

na

Wyom

ing

Louis

iana

Mis

siss

ippi

Georg

iaIn

dia

na

Ohio

New

Ham

psh

ire

Okla

hom

aAla

bam

aM

isso

uri

Ark

ansa

sTenness

ee

Flo

rida

Kentu

cky

Main

eW

est

Virgin

iaVerm

ont

slide 10

Educational Attainment of Whites and Minorities (Black, Hispanics, Native Americans) Aged 25-44, 2008-2010

California

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.

4.9

17.4

25.5

8.6

29.5

14.1

34.3

26.0

21.2

5.9

9.3

3.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Less Than HighSchool

High SchoolGraduate or GED

Some College, NoDegree

Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional

Degree

Whites Minorities

slide 11

Change in Population Age 25-44 By Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau slide 12

…2,689,700

…1,044,516


Percent of Adults Aged 25 to 64 with College Degrees – Associate and

Higher – by County (2009)

Point 3

• California relies heavily on in-migration of talent to meet workforce needs

– Especially true in regard to technical workers

14

Percent of Residents Aged 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Born In-State, 2010

66.3

66.1

63.3

62.3

61.0

61.0

61.0

60.7

60.0

57.0

54.7

54.4

54.0

53.6

53.5

53.3

52.9

52.9

50.9

50.1

47.7

47.1

46.4

45.7

43.7

43.0

42.8

42.5

41.9

40.7

40.4

40.0

37.9

37.7

37.7

32.6

30.8

30.4

29.7

29.5

29.2

26.9

25.1

24.8

24.3

24.0

23.0

19.2

16.6

15.6

9.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Louis

iana

Mic

hig

an

Ohio

Mis

siss

ippi

Pennsy

lvania

West

Virgin

iaW

isco

nsi

nIo

wa

Nort

h D

akota

Nebra

ska

India

na

Ala

bam

aKentu

cky

New

York

Illin

ois

Min

neso

taM

isso

uri

South

Dakota

Ark

ansa

sO

kla

hom

aM

ass

ach

use

tts

Uta

hRhode I

sland

Kansa

sTexas

Monta

na

Nation

Main

eTenness

ee

Connect

icut

Haw

aii

South

Caro

lina

New

Jers

ey

Calif

orn

iaN

ort

h C

aro

lina

Idaho

Georg

iaW

ash

ingto

nO

regon

New

Mexic

oW

yom

ing

Dela

ware

Verm

ont

Mary

land

Virgin

iaN

ew

Ham

psh

ire

Colo

rado

Flo

rida

Arizo

na

Ala

ska

Nevada

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.

slide 15

Percent of Residents Aged 25-64 with an Associates Degree or Higher Born In-State, 2010

slide 16

69.1

67.3

66.2

64.6

64.1

64.1

63.5

62.2

61.3

59.2

57.5

57.4

57.3

57.2

56.3

56.3

54.3

54.1

52.3

51.0

50.9

49.2

49.1

48.5

47.7

45.4

45.3

43.7

43.2

43.2

42.9

42.8

41.7

40.2

39.2

34.6

33.4

33.3

32.5

32.3

32.1

30.9

28.4

26.9

26.8

26.8

24.9

20.5

18.8

16.5

9.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80M

ichig

an

Louis

iana

Ohio

Wis

consi

nIo

wa

Pennsy

lvania

Mis

siss

ippi

West

Virgin

iaN

ort

h D

akota

Nebra

ska

India

na

Kentu

cky

Ala

bam

aM

inneso

taN

ew

York

Illin

ois

Mis

souri

South

Dakota

Ark

ansa

sM

ass

ach

use

tts

Okla

hom

aU

tah

Rhode I

sland

Main

eKansa

sTexas

Nation

Monta

na

Connect

icut

Tenness

ee

South

Caro

lina

Haw

aii

Nort

h C

aro

lina

Calif

orn

iaN

ew

Jers

ey

Idaho

New

Mexic

oW

ash

ingto

nG

eorg

iaW

yom

ing

Ore

gon

Verm

ont

Dela

ware

Mary

land

Virgin

iaN

ew

Ham

psh

ire

Colo

rado

Flo

rida

Arizo

na

Ala

ska

Nevada

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.

Average Annual Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with College Degrees Employed in High Tech Occupations, 2008-10

11.8

11.3

10.9

10.4

9.9

9.7

9.3

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.1

8.9

8.8

8.8

8.6

8.2

8.2

8.0

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.7

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.3

7.2

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.4

6.3

6.1

6.1

6.0

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.1

5.0

4.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Virgin

iaM

ary

land

Wash

ingto

nColo

rado

New

Ham

psh

ire

Calif

orn

iaM

ass

ach

use

tts

Texas

New

Jers

ey

Arizo

na

Mic

hig

an

Min

neso

taU

tah

New

Mexic

oO

regon

Connect

icut

Nation

Dela

ware

Georg

iaAla

bam

aId

aho

Illin

ois

Kansa

sO

hio

Pennsy

lvania

Wis

consi

nIn

dia

na

Dis

tric

t of

Colu

mbia

Mis

souri

Rhode I

sland

Nort

h C

aro

lina

Ala

ska

Verm

ont

South

Caro

lina

Iow

aTenness

ee

Okla

hom

aFlo

rida

New

York

Nebra

ska

Kentu

cky

Wyom

ing

Nevada

Ark

ansa

sLouis

iana

Haw

aii

West

Virgin

iaM

onta

na

South

Dakota

Nort

h D

akota

Main

eM

issi

ssip

pi

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey Three-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File. NCES, IPEDS 2009-10 Completions File; c2010_a Final Release Data File.

Note: Awards for Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, and West Virginia reduced to reflect private for-profit production primarily serving out-of-state students online. slide 17

Undergraduate STEM Credentials Awarded per 1,000 STEM Employees, 2008-10

128.9

103.1

94.1

91.3

90.6

88.5

86.2

82.2

80.6

79.6

78.0

75.5

73.0

72.1

68.1

67.2

66.9

66.1

65.3

65.0

64.8

63.3

62.8

62.8

62.2

60.6

59.5

57.3

54.4

54.0

53.4

52.9

52.5

51.2

50.7

49.9

49.4

48.9

45.9

43.5

42.2

41.5

41.2

41.2

40.1

40.0

39.4

38.5

37.9

32.3

31.5

28.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140N

ort

h D

akota

South

Dakota

Louis

iana

West

Virgin

iaRhode I

sland

Mis

siss

ippi

Kentu

cky

Ark

ansa

sIn

dia

na

Monta

na

Verm

ont

Pennsy

lvania

Iow

aN

ebra

ska

Wyom

ing

Mic

hig

an

Okla

hom

aM

ain

eO

hio

Mis

souri

New

York

Uta

hW

isco

nsi

nAla

bam

aD

istr

ict

of

Colu

mbia

Nort

h C

aro

lina

South

Caro

lina

Idaho

Nation

Kansa

sG

eorg

iaFlo

rida

Tenness

ee

Illin

ois

Mass

ach

use

tts

Min

neso

taTexas

Arizo

na

Wash

ingto

nN

ew

Mexic

oCalif

orn

iaN

evada

Dela

ware

Ore

gon

Colo

rado

Ala

ska

Haw

aii

Mary

land

Virgin

iaConnect

icut

New

Ham

psh

ire

New

Jers

ey

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey Three-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File. NCES, IPEDS 2009-10 Completions File; c2010_a Final Release Data File.

Note: Awards for Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, and West Virginia reduced to reflect private for-profit production primarily serving out-of-state students online. slide 18

Point 4

• Approaches to Higher Education policy is best approached from a regional perspective

19

California Regional Map

Santa Cruz

San Benito

Merced

Sonoma Yolo

Colusa

Lake

YubaNevada

Placer

Mendocino

Del Norte

Humboldt

Madera

TuolumneMono

Monterey Kings

Calaveras

Los AngelesVentura

San Diego

Lassen

Alameda

Alpine

Amador

Butte

Contra Costa

El Dorado

Fresno

Glenn

Imperial

Inyo

Kern

Marin

Mariposa

Modoc

Napa

Orange

Plumas

Riverside

Sacramento

San Bernardino

San FranciscoSan Joaquin

San Luis Obispo

San Mateo

Santa Barbara

Santa Clara

Shasta

Sierra

Siskiyou

Solano

Stanislaus

Sutter

Tehama

Trinity

Tulare

Northern California

Upper Sacramento Valley

Sacramento Tahoe

Central Sierra

San Joaquin Valley

Bay Area

Central Coast

Inland Empire

San Diego Imperial

Los Angeles

Orange

Percent of the Population with an Associate Degree or Higher (2006-08)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

San Joaquin Valley

Central Sierra

Inland Empire

Northern California


Central Coast

Los Angeles

San Diego/Imperial

Orange County

Sacramento/Tahoe

Bay Area

Source: US Census Bureau, 2006-08 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Samples

College Attainment Gap between White and Minority 25 to 44 Year Olds (2006-08)


(Minority - Blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans)

15.6

16.2

18.2

19.3

20.0

23.6

31.5

32.5

35.0

40.4

40.6

41.0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Central Sierra

Northern California

Inland Empire


San Joaquin Valley

Sacramento Tahoe

San Diego Imperial

Statewide

Central Coast

Los Angeles

Orange County

Bay Area

Young Adults in Need of Education: Number of 18 to 24 Year Olds (Not Enrolled in Education) without a College Degree

(2008-09)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2006-08 American Community Survey,

Public Use Microdata Samples

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

Central Sierra


Northern California

Central Coast

Sacramento Tahoe

Orange County

San Diego Imperial

Bay Area

San Joaquin Valley

Inland Empire

Los Angeles

Less Than High School High School Graduate Some College, No Degree

Percent of High School Graduates Going Directly to College (2006-08)


39.2

39.4

43.7

44.2

51.7

52.4

53.4

54.7

56.6

56.8

59.1

59.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

San Joaquin Valley

Inland Empire

Northern California


Statewide

Bay Area

Central Sierra

San Diego Imperial

Los Angeles

Sacramento Tahoe

Central Coast

Orange County

Attendance Patterns of First-Time College Students Directly Out of High School by Region (2006-08)

48.3

59.4

60.4

60.7

62.5

65.4

65.8

70.1

71.7

72.0

74.3

27.3

26.9

30.1

23.9

25.3

20.3

22.6

23.2

20.4

17.0

18.6

24.4

13.7

9.4

15.4

12.2

14.4

11.7

6.7

7.9

11.0

7.1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Bay Area

Inland Empire

San Joaquin Valley

Los Angeles

San Diego Imperial

Orange County

Sacramento Tahoe


Northern California

Central Coast

Central Sierra

Community Colleges California State Universities Universities of California


Point 5

• Improvement in degree production (and productivity) of community colleges is the key to closing the education attainment gap in California

26

Undergraduate Awards (One Year and More) per 100 FTE Undergraduates – Public Research, 2009-10

26

.9

25

.7

25

.6

25

.2

24

.7

23

.9

23

.4

23

.3

22

.7

22

.5

22

.5

22

.3

22

.2

21

.9

21

.8

21

.7

21

.4

21

.3

21

.1

21

.0

21

.0

20

.9

20

.9

20

.7

20

.7

20

.6

20

.6

20

.5

20

.4

20

.2

20

.2

19

.8

19

.8

19

.7

19

.6

19

.6

19

.3

19

.2

19

.1

19

.0

18

.9

18

.9

18

.9

18

.7

18

.4

18

.1

18

.0

17

.8

17

.6

17

.2

15

.8

0.0

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Sources: NCES, IPEDS Completions and Enrollment Surveys slide 27

Undergraduate Awards (One Year and More) per 100 FTE Undergraduates – Public Bachelor’s & Masters, 2009-10

26.3

24.3

24.0

23.3

22.9

22.8

22.2

22.0

21.9

21.3

21.1

21.0

20.9

20.7

20.6

19.9

19.9

19.8

19.7

19.5

19.5

19.3

19.2

19.2

19.0

18.8

18.7

18.7

18.7

18.6

18.6

18.4

18.0

18.0

17.6

16.9

16.7

16.7

16.6

16.6

16.3

16.0

15.7

15.4

15.0

14.9

14.3

13.3

9.8

0

5

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slide 28

Undergraduate Awards (One Year and More) per 100 FTE Undergraduates – Public Two-Year, 2009-10

29.0

27.2

21.5

20.4

19.9

19.9

19.8

19.3

18.9

18.8

17.9

17.5

17.3

16.9

16.8

16.8

16.6

16.6

16.1

16.0

15.9

15.9

15.6

15.4

15.4

15.4

15.2

14.5

14.3

14.2

14.2

14.1

13.9

13.4

13.4

13.3

13.3

12.9

12.7

12.6

12.6

12.4

12.3

12.2

12.1

12.1

11.3

11.3

10.5

9.8

7.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Nort

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akota

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slide 29

Closing the Education Attainment Gap in California

Additional degrees to reach 60% by 2025 3,500,000

Improving High School Graduation Rates to National Best 355,000

College-going rate to National Best 230,000

Improving College Completion of Public & Private 4-year 275,000

Remaining Gap 2,640,000

Improving Completion at Community Colleges to the National Best 2,535,000

*Calculations assume enrollments of first-time students are distributed in a constant manner

Recent HS Grads Age 20-39

Public Research 15% 0

Public Baccalaureates & Masters 18 .0

Private 12 16

Community Colleges 55 82

slide 30

points to remember about california higher education › sites › ahed.assembly.ca... · source:...

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