A WORLD BANK GROUP GLOBAL ENV IRONMENT FAC I L I TY PROGRAM PUBL ICAT ION

WORLD BANK GEFPost- Imp lementat ion Impact Assessment

Poland Effi cient Lighting Project

WORLD BANK GEFPost-Implementation Impact Assessment

POLAND EFFICIENT LIGHTING PROJECT

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY PROGRAM

THE WORLD BANK

©2006

The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/

THE WORLD BANK

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This report was prepared by le Groupe-conseil baastel ltée. Special thanks to all stakeholders met either

in Poland or in other countries, to Russell Sturm (IFC) and Siv Tokle of the GEF Evaluation Office for

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Bank’s Task Manager was Samuel Wedderburn.

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iii

CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS VII

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

1. INTRODUCTION 91.1 Manufacturers’ Subsidy Component 111.2 Luminaire Subsidy Component 111.3 Consumer Education Component 121.4 Pilot Demand-side Management Component 121.5 M&E Component 13

2. METHODOLOGY I5

3. PELP PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION I93.1 Project Context 193.2 Achieved Project Outcomes 20 3.2.1 Energy Savings and Reduction in GHG Emissions 20 3.2.2 Project Benefits to the Polish Economy 21 3.2.3 Level of Awareness to Potential Benefits of DSM Programs and DSM Capacity Building 22

4. IMPACT ASSESSMENT 234.1 Post-project Context 234.2 Findings and Analysis 25 4.2.1 Global Environmental Impacts 25 4.2.2 Impacts on Institutional Development 32

iv

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

4.2.3 Impacts on the Market and on Beneficiaries 42 4.2.4 Mainstreaming Global Environmental Concerns 59 4.2.5 Impacts on Local Environment and Health 624.3 Replicability 64

5. LESSONS LEARNED 695.1 Lessons for Energy Efficiency Sector Projects 695.2 Lessons in Project Management and Implementation of EE Initiatives 71

6. RECOMMENDATIONS 73

APPENDIXES

Appendix A: Project Organizational Chart 75Annex B: Interviewees 77Appendix C: Bibliography 79

TABLES

Table 4.1 Total Estimated Energy Saving 27 Table 4.2 Total Estimated GHG Reduction 28 Table 4.3 Forecasts of CFL Sales Increases 28 Table 4.4 CFL Sales, Energy Savings, and GHG Emission Reductions with and without PELP 30 Table 4.5 GHG Emission Reductions in Programs That Replicated PELP 31

FIGURES

Figure 4.1 Energy Consumption, Intensity and GDP in Poland 1997—2002 (FEWE) 31 Figure 4.2 Level of Satisfaction with CFLs Purchased 44 Figure 4.3 45 Figure 4.4 47 Figure 4.5 What will your next light bulb be? 48

v

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AGH University of Mining and Metallurgy in Krakow

BEE Business Energy Ecology

CFL compact fluorescent lamp

CO2 carbon dioxide

DSM demand-side management

EE energy efficiency

ELI Efficient Lighting Initiative

ENGO environmental nongovernmental organization

ENVGC Environment Department Global Environment Coordination

ESCO energy services company

ES Systems Energy Savings Systems

EU European Union

FEWE Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency

GDP gross domestic product

GEF Global Environment Facility

GHG greenhouse gas

GLS general lighting services

GWh gigawatt-hour

IAEEL International Agency for Energy-Efficient Lighting

IFC International Finance Corporation

IIEC International Institute for Energy Conservation

kWh kilowatt-hour

M&E monitoring and evaluation

NGO nongovernmental organization

vi

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

NOx nitrogen oxide

PELP Polish Efficient Lighting Project

PEMP Polish Efficient Motor Project

PLN zloty [Polish currency]

PNEC Polish Network “Energie Cities”

PSE Polish power grid company

RE renewable energy

SOx sulfur oxide

Note: All dollar amounts are U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The World Bank’s Global Environment Facil-

ity (GEF) Coordination Team has embarked

on a series of post-implementation project im-

pact assessments in order to better understand

the extent of impacts of GEF project interven-

tions, the sustainability of these impacts, and

lessons learned and to determine how the

GEF operational programs’ long-term goals

are being addressed. These reviews focus on

lessons learned at the project and thematic

level that are relevant to the World Bank and

GEF policies and strategies.

Four climate change projects in the energy

efficiency (EE) thematic area were selected for

study in 2004—5: the Poland Efficient Lighting

Project (PELP), Mexico High Efficiency Light-

ing Project, Jamaica Demand-Side Manage-

ment Demonstration Project, and Thailand

Promotion of Electricity Energy Efficiency.

This report deals with the Poland project. This

review of PELP also served as a pilot for the

other three impact assessments. Its purpose

was to contribute to the identification of fac-

tors that determine the sustainability and rep-

lication of project outcomes and to identify

lessons that will help to improve the design

and implementation of World Bank-GEF

projects. The pilot phase was also intended

to provide lessons on conducting assessments

of this type, long after projects have been

completed. (The challenges encountered

and lessons learned from conducting im-

pact assessments are presented in a separate

document prepared for the World Bank by

le Groupe-conseil baastel ltée.)

The review was conducted by le Groupe-

conseil baastel ltée between April and July

2004. The report is based on a thorough

desk review, preliminary interviews, and a

two-week mission to Poland during which

the Study Team met with key informants

and reviewed further documentation. The

interviewees included representatives from

the executing agency, relevant ministries,

electric utilities, municipal representatives,

environmental nongovernmental organiza-

2

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

tions, energy consultants, the private sector,

consumers, retailers, compact fluorescent

lamp (CFL) and luminaire manufacturers, and

other relevant stakeholder groups. The Study

Team also conducted a basic retail survey in

major cities in Poland. This involved visit-

ing the major large, medium-size, and small

stores that sell CFLs and luminaries, as well as

electric and lighting specialty shops, in order

to assess availability, EE lighting promotion,

and shelf space, prices, types, brands, and

other relevant data.

In addition, the Study Team held a focus

group of consumers – some of the primary

beneficiaries of the project – in order to

collect detailed quantitative and qualitative

data to be measured against the outcomes of

the project and to assess the current state of

affairs. The Team contracted with the most

nationally recognized social science research

firm (PINTOR) to assist with the organization

and independent administration of a survey to

cover these project beneficiaries. This focus

group allowed for a verification and triangula-

tion of findings from other sources.

Findings

The review demonstrated that PELP has had

significant long-term impacts in Poland in

terms of the environment, the market for

CFLs, and various beneficiaries. The assess-

ment also brought to light various challenges

in terms of the long-term impact of PELP.

Although the issue of attribution is difficult

in the impact assessment context, this report

attempts to highlight direct and indirect con-

tributions observable from PELP in the long

term and does not significantly deviate from

findings and data substantiated from numer-

ous current sources.

Global Environmental Impacts

The Study Team concludes, using available

information on the current CFL market, that

total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions re-

duction attributable to PELP approximates

3.62 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2)

equivalent – substantially more than the

2.79 million tons of CO2 estimated by Navi-

gant Consulting in 1999. This difference is

due essentially to more households with

CFLs than originally estimated and market

saturation for CFLs in Poland. In addition,

the global environmental benefits in terms

of GHG emission reduction induced by

subsequent projects that were inspired by

the PELP experience (or that replicated PELP

to some degree) could also be significant.

Total anticipated impacts of three key PELP

follow-up or replicated projects are in the

range of 18.4 million tons of CO2.

Institutional Development

The capacity for information management

and awareness raising exists at certain levels

within the country, and some of it was fur-

thered through PELP. For example, institu-

tions such as the University of Mining and

Metallurgy in Krakow (AGH), the Polish Net-

work “Energie Cities” (PNEC), and the Polish

Foundation for Energy Efficiency (FEWE) all

Executive Summary

3

have the capacity to undertake awareness

raising initiatives throughout the country

and are currently doing so. However, groups

such as FEWE and PNEC rely on project-

related funding and have little core funding

available to ensure continuity and a strong

logical framework for their actions on EE. The

national government does not appear to be

currently committed to EE and demand-side

management (DSM) in any forceful manner,

and municipalities are constrained in terms of

both human and financial capacity for aware-

ness rising. As many stakeholders have made

clear, PELP focused primarily on shifting the

market for CFLs and not necessarily on raising

EE awareness or developing the capacity to

do so for the long term. It should be noted that

this was a contextually appropriate choice

for the project’s emphasis, but it impeded

some degree of contributions being made

to long-term raised awareness and related

capacities for EE.

Although there may generally be capacity for

policy making, planning, and decision mak-

ing for EE and DSM, since several national

laws and policies address EE issues, the laws

are not well enforced or implemented due to

various contextual factors. At the municipal

level, the capacity for planning and deci-

sion making on EE is almost nonexistent and

therefore needs to be addressed. At national

and municipal levels, the government’s ca-

pacity to implement the decisions on EE and

DSM does not seem to be present, but this

capacity does exist within nongovernmental

institutions or organizations. It is evident that

utilities, too, have this capacity, but they are

generally not as interested in pursuing these

initiatives, given current market realities in

Poland. PELP had limited success in bringing

change to that overall situation, although it

did support pilot initiatives in certain munici-

palities that helped further the implementa-

tion capacity of some groups in partnership

with municipalities. The need to broaden

the experience and reach of that capacity

remains significant, given the EE situation in

the country.

The incomplete enabling environment for

pursuing EE in Poland is not conducive to

use of the capacity to enforce legislation,

which does not seem to be present at any

level. If EE is to be pursued in the future, this

capacity will need to be built. The capacity

to pool human, technological, and ecological

resources does lie with institutions like FEWE

and energy consultants. However, as indi-

cated earlier, what is missing is the capacity

to pool financial resources required to move

EE and DSM ahead in Poland.

Energy service companies (ECSOs), which

normally would be a key player in pool-

ing resources by marketing, implementing,

and structuring financing for EE measures at

various levels (and were envisioned as such

by PELP), are not important in Poland. The

efforts of PELP to build an ESCO legacy as a

key institutional driver of broader and sus-

tainable market transformation for efficient

4

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

lighting in Poland in the longer run have

not proved fruitful. This appears to be due,

in particular, to the absence of an adequate

market-enabling environment to allow the

companies to flourish.

Impacts on the Market and Beneficiaries

For consumers, there have been many di-

rect and indirect benefits from PELP in the

long term. As the market for CFLs has been

transformed, the availability and selection of

CFLs has increased dramatically. The price of

CFLs remains at similar levels since the end

of PELP (which means a lower price in real

terms). Consumers are still enjoying energy

savings by using CFLs, even though it is dif-

ficult to calculate such savings in the current

Polish context of rising electricity prices and

a rapidly evolving electricity sector. Gener-

ally, consumers are aware of the benefits of

CFLs and are purchasing them, but consum-

ers need to be further informed about the

differences between high- and low-quality

bulbs. Cheaper, lower-quality CFLs imported

from Asia are less energy-efficient, but many

consumers are attracted to the lower price. As

many lower-quality bulbs on the market burn

out early or do not work properly, indications

suggest that consumers’ level of satisfaction

has decreased since PELP.

Some manufacturers have benefited greatly

from this market transformation, while oth-

ers have experienced significant challenges.

Sales overall are very high, as is the pen-

etration rate. Philips and Osram continue

to dominate the CFL market, as they did at

the time of the project. Philips has certainly

benefited directly from PELP (as did Energy

Saving Systems in the luminaire market),

while Osram and other manufacturers have

benefited indirectly through a transformed

market and increased sales overall. How-

ever, local manufacturers have not been

able to compete with cheaper Asian imports

or with the big established players. There

are more “local players” in the market now,

but they are mostly distributors of imported

goods, and they do not see their business as

sustainable. In addition, the sustainability

of the CFL market is further in question, as

consumer confidence is apparently erod-

ing, due to lower-quality products and the

absence of adequate mechanisms to control

this aspect.

Some electric utilities have benefited from

PELP over time and have adopted DSM and

EE to avoid large investments. However,

this is usually only for peak shaving and is

certainly not widespread. Through PELP and

initiatives that grew from it, municipalities

continue to reap the benefits of EE, as the

awareness of CFLs has spread to municipali-

ties beyond those targeted by PELP.

Mainstreaming into National and Sectoral

Policies, Laws, and Plans

Although some stakeholders believe that

PELP may have indirectly contributed to

bringing some EE-related issues to the surface

and to the attention of the central govern-

Executive Summary

5

ment, they also recall that the government,

while it was officially supportive of EE and

PELP, was not involved in the project, and

no active relationship or mechanism was in

place to ensure feedback of PELP experience

at the policy level. Poland’s current acces-

sion to the EU is the main impetus behind

laws and policies in Poland, which are more

focused on renewable energy than on energy

efficiency. EE has therefore not been main-

streamed into Poland’s laws and policies to

the extent that could be expected. Where

it has, enforcement of legislation has been

lacking and requires attention. In addition,

PELP did not have an observable impact on

legislation development.

Nevertheless, it seems that PELP did have a

significant impact on the development of EE-

related curricula at various levels of schooling

in the country, although this is not reflected

in education laws or policies per se. PELP

catalyzed an educational and intellectual

focus on EE-related issues in Poland, and its

impacts can be observed in the wide array

of courses and curricula, especially at the

university level, dealing with this topic and

in the greatly expanded number of graduates

and experts who have emerged.

Impacts on the Local Environment

and Health

There are some direct and indirect benefits for

the local health and environment as a result of

PELP, due to the avoidance of expanded coal

power generation, which reduced pollutants

in the air, including nitrogen oxide and sulfur

oxide. Direct attribution to or contributions

from PELP are difficult to assess in the context

of this evaluation, however. Less difficult to

assess is the impact PELP has had in the long

run for the preserved or improved eyesight of

children in schools where EE lighting systems

have replaced non-EE lighting systems.

Replicability

One strong impact of PELP is found in the

number, type, and quality of replication that

has taken place. Lessons, approaches, and

experiences from PELP have been replicated

widely, both in Poland at various levels and

at the international level. PELP lessons and

approaches were replicated by PNEC, FEWE,

AGH University stakeholders, and energy

consultants at municipal and national levels

in Poland and are currently seen in initiatives

such as the Polish Efficient Motor Project.

At the international level, the International

Finance Corporation’s Efficient Lighting Initia-

tive stands as a good example of a replication

activity of PELP, although its approach is

appropriately adjusted to the context of the

country in which it takes place.

Lessons Learned

Lessons for Energy Efficiency

Sector Projects

An overarching lesson from this impact as-

sessment of PELP is that there are key chal-

lenges that must be considered and addressed

in market transformation toward energy

efficiency in developing economies:

6

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

• The development of an appropriate en-

abling environment for energy efficiency

actions is very important.

• Building the capacity of local-level gover-

nance institutions to plan, implement, and

enforce legislation and to pool adequate hu-

man and financial resources is paramount.

• Special attention must be paid to build-

ing and sustaining the capacity to raise

awareness on EE/DSM issues and benefits

at various levels.

• The promotion of global environmental

benefits can contribute to bringing a more

sustainable longer-term attitudinal change

toward energy-efficient practices.

• Sustaining raised awareness to have a long-

term impact on changing attitudes and

behaviors requires that adequate emphasis

be placed on information dissemination

and education in an ongoing manner and

at all levels.

• To achieve total and sustainable market

transformation, capacities must be built

within central government, municipalities,

the private sector, and nongovernmental

actors active in the sector.

• Where the macroeconomic and social

context is not conducive to EE, it is difficult

to get government commitment to steer the

process and ensure an adequate enabling

environment.

• In a rapidly changing and opened (or

“opening”) economy, adequate atten-

tion must also be paid to the capacity to

compete with imported products and the

effects this might have.

In addition, the impact assessment of PELP

also generated these other lessons from EE

projects:

• Direct incentives to manufacturers can

be an efficient way to bring about mar-

ket transformation in favor of a given EE

product.

• For sustained impact in EE or DSM, ap-

propriate champions must be identified

and integrated into the initiatives.

• In the context of EE initiatives, it can be

beneficial to work more with end users

and final consumers, who have the most

to gain from electricity savings.

• The argument about health (namely, the

relation of children’s eyesight to proper

lighting) can be a convincing factor in

bringing public support for EE lighting

initiatives.

Lessons in Project Management and

Implementation of EE Initiatives

Assessing PELP in the long term helped

to identify some lessons for learning from

and improving on the experiences of the

project:

• Having an “objective” promoter of the

product to the public, someone who is

seen as independent, is an effective pro-

motional tool.

• Contextually appropriate project executors

and partners are key factors in the short-

term and long-term success of EE initia-

tives.

Executive Summary

7

• The involvement of appropriate local

resources in the design of the project

helps ensure that the intricacies of the lo-

cal context and the changing contextual

environment are taken into account during

the project.

• Project implementation approaches must

be contextually appropriate.

• In order to address emerging constraints

and to build on successes, consideration

should be given to planning for additional

follow-up activities.

Recommendations

The Study Team formulated the following

recommendations related to addressing a

sustained market transformation for energy

efficiency:

• Further use of existing networks in Poland

that raise consumer awareness should be

built on as part of a larger effort in aware-

ness raising on EE at local and municipal

levels.

• A phased strategy in terms of consumer

awareness is recommended, focusing

perhaps initially on economic aspects to

induce a shift, but then focusing on global

environmental aspects in order to address

sustainability.

• Municipalities in Poland should be made

more aware of available funds for EE ini-

tiatives, and related capacities should be

built to facilitate access to those funds.

• The enabling environment, including the

legal structure and enforcement, must

be considered as part of a larger effort

to address capacity development for EE-

related policy making, implementation,

and enforcement.

• Future EE initiatives should look at the

development of mechanisms to ensure

CFL quality and heightened EE savings in

the long run.

• Awareness raising initiatives must move

beyond urban areas to rural ones and must

begin to target municipalities and areas

where CFLs and EE generally have yet to

emerge.

9

The World Bank’s Monitoring and Evalu-

ation (M&E) policy (OD 10.70) recom-

mends that, in addition to mid-term and

final evaluation, major impact evaluations

should be conducted on a selective basis

several years after a project is completed to

measure long-term changes brought about

by the project. The Operations Evaluation

Department conducts Project Performance

Assessments on 25 percent of the Bank’s

portfolio. These provide accountability as

well as serving a learning function, but

to date they have included relatively few

Global Environment Facility (GEF) projects,

given the small number of completed GEF

projects each year.

In addition, paragraph 44 of the GEF Monitor-

ing and Evaluation Policies and Procedures

of January 2002 encourages GEF Partner

Agencies to conduct impact evaluation of

projects after completion. However, these

studies have not been a part of project M&E

activities.

The World Bank’s GEF Coordination Team

hence identified the need to assess post-

implementation results, especially in terms

of longer-term impacts, sustainability, rep-

licability, and lessons learned. In particular,

there is a need to focus on lessons in order to

better understand the extent of impacts, and

sustainability of these impacts, and thus help

determine how GEF operational programs’

long-term goals are being addressed.

In light of this, a set of post-implementation

impact assessments were conducted. These

reviews adopted a long-term perspective

and were based on the study of a cluster of

projects in a specific GEF thematic area. They

focused on lessons learned at the project

and thematic level that are relevant to the

World Bank and the GEF policies and strate-

gies. More specifically, the issues evaluated

included the following:

• Contribution of outcomes to the achieve-

ment of expected impacts

1 INTRODUCTION

10

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

• The project’s impacts on the global envi-

ronment

• The project’s impacts on institutional de-

velopment

• The project’s impacts on beneficiaries

(such as livelihoods)

• Lessons learned regarding the sustainabil-

ity of project impacts

• Replicability of project outcomes achieved

and catalytic effect of the project

• The project’s impacts on mainstream-

ing global environment concerns in the

country’s national development and sector

policies

• Lessons learned for improving the design

and management of future activities, an-

swering the question, How can we do it

better?

Four climate change projects in the energy

efficiency (EE) thematic area were selected for

study in 2004—5: the Poland Efficient Lighting

Project (PELP), Mexico High Efficiency Light-

ing Project, Jamaica Demand-Side Manage-

ment Demonstration Project, and Thailand

Promotion of Electricity Energy Efficiency

Project. This report deals with the Poland

project. This review of PELP also served as a

pilot for the other three impact assessments.

In addition to the issues just mentioned, the re-

view of the projects selected in the EE/climate

change cluster included assessments of:

• Private sector impact and market develop-

ment, including issues related to market

growth such as product sales, investment,

and industry structure

• Capacity building achieved in the EE/de-

mand-side management (DSM) area and

its transferability in the context of the

power sector reforms taking place in some

countries

• The impact of GEF on the lighting industry

in the selected country, given the theme of

efficient lighting products in the selected

projects

The post-implementation impact assess-

ment of PELP was conducted by le Groupe-

conseil baastel ltée between April and June

2004, approximately six years after the

project was completed. PELP was a $5-

million greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction

initiative funded by GEF. The International

Finance Corporation (IFC) implemented

PELP in Poland from 1995 through 1998.

The Netherlands Energy Company was

chosen on a competitive basis by IFC as

the local executing agency to adminis-

ter PELP through its daughter company,

Netherlands Energy Efficient Lighting.

The initiative was designed to foster the

replacement of conventional incandes-

cent bulbs with energy-efficient compact

fluorescent lamps (CFLs) in households

in Poland, thereby avoiding electricity

consumption and the emission of GHGs

associated with electricity generation and

distribution.

The main objectives of the initiative were:

Introduction

11

• To reduce GHG emissions from the Polish

electricity sector

• To maximize benefits to the Polish econ-

omy from domestic CFL manufacturing

resources

• To develop the capacity of entities within

Poland to deliver DSM resources

• To demonstrate the value of DSM pro-

grams to the Polish electric power sector,

the government, and Polish nongovern-

mental organizations (NGOs)

1.1 Manufacturers’ Subsidy Component

The CFL subsidy program was the largest

component of PELP. Over $2.6 million of

GEF funds were made available to five Polish

lighting manufacturing companies to reduce

the cost of more than 1.2 million screw-base

CFLs to consumers and to stimulate demand

for the product. PELP provided subsidies on

a competitive basis to Polish CFL manufactur-

ers, using a “manufacturer subsidy” approach.

The project relied on private sector involve-

ment and competitive market principles to

encourage manufacturers, wholesalers, and

retailers to increase the availability of CFLs

and lower their price.

Rather than selling CFLs, PELP aimed to pro-

vide subsidies directly to CFL manufacturers

via a competitive bidding process. Success-

ful bidders agreed to pass on at least the

full value of the subsidies to CFL customers

in the form of lower wholesale prices. CFL

manufacturers interested in participating in

PELP had to submit proposals in order to get

subsidies. Manufacturers who were able to

provide the greatest energy savings in terms

of projected avoided electricity use for the

smallest application of subsidies were allocat-

ed larger shares of subsidies. If manufacturers

were unable to meet the sale goals stated in

their proposals, their entitlement to the sub-

sidies could be reallocated to more-efficient

manufacturers. This competitive system was

designed to provide incentives to manufac-

turers to achieve higher efficiency and lower

CFL market prices. By providing subsidies

to manufacturers and encouraging them to

sell the CFLs, PELP could take advantage of

the CFL manufacturers’ existing distribution

channels and networks.

1.2 Luminaire Subsidy Component

To realize the full potential of energy-ef-

ficient lighting technology in Poland, it was

necessary to also promote the luminaire

market. This subsidy funded a technology

transfer and education program to intro-

duce technically sound prototype compact

fluorescent technologies to Polish luminaire

manufacturers, who were generally not fa-

miliar with them.

PELP promoted energy-efficient residential

luminaires through a program that used a

similar design to the CFL subsidy. More than

57,000 CFL luminaires were sold, receiving

PELP subsidies totaling over $82,000. In

addition, the use of energy-efficient commer-

cial/institutional luminaires was promoted

through retrofits of three Polish schools.

12

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

After completing the retrofits, the economic

results were thoroughly analyzed and the

findings published and distributed. PELP also

sponsored design seminars and a luminaire

design competition to help raise awareness

in the Polish academic, engineering, and

industrial design communities about CFL

luminaire design.

1.3 Consumer Education Component

In order for the PELP CFL subsidy to have a

sustained impact on the market for energy-

efficient lighting products in Poland, it was

essential to develop consumer awareness of

CFLs and of the PELP promotion. The public

education component promoted the CFL

subsidy program (and CFLs generally) to

the public by providing general consumer

information on the benefits of energy-ef-

ficient lighting from a trusted nonindustry

source. Specifically, PELP fostered public

awareness of energy efficiency and CFL use

through a combination of traditional advertis-

ing vehicles and cooperation with the NGO

community and public schools. The public

education component included:

• A logo for the program designed to help

consumers identify the energy-efficient,

high-quality lighting products promoted

under the program

• Television and print advertising

• Press conferences and interviews

• A school education program

• An energy efficiency awareness program

in the Krakow area developed by the Pol-

ish Ecological Club and funded by PELP

targeted professional lighting designers

1.4 Pilot Demand-side Management

Component

The pilot DSM component was designed

to provide an important opportunity to test

the effectiveness of promoting CFLs through

Polish municipalities with the help of elec-

tric utilities. The program included targeted

installation of CFLs, a city-wide promotion

campaign, and capacity building of indig-

enous Polish expertise.

The DSM pilot was initially designed to be led

and implemented by selected electric power

distribution companies in Poland, but their

reluctance to engage in such a role forced the

pilot to be redesigned. (Among other things,

their reluctance was based on the belief

that a project that would result in reduced

electricity sales could not be good for their

business.) The new pilot design depended on

the involvement and leadership of municipal

governments, with power distribution com-

panies providing a supporting role. The DSM

pilot was implemented with the help of many

organizations, most notably the Polish Net-

work “Energie Cities” (PNEC), the University

of Mining and Metallurgy in Krakow (AGH

University), three municipal governments,

and the power distribution companies of

Torun, Bialystok, and Bielsko Biala.

Three cities – and their regional electric

utilities – were selected to participate in the

Introduction

13

DSM pilot: Chelmno, a city of about 22,000

inhabitants in north-central Poland; Elk, a

city of about 54,000 inhabitants in northeast

Poland; and Zywiec, a city of about 35,000

inhabitants in south-central Poland. They

were selected because they were willing

and able to participate and they had areas

with grid capacity problems that the DSM

pilot was designed to address. While the

entire areas of all three cities participated

in the DSM pilot, several target areas within

the cities were established for intensive CFL

promotion and electric load analysis.

1.5 M&E Component

Another important component of the project

was the monitoring and evaluation system.

This was designed to measure the effective-

ness of the project activities, as well as to

determine the environmental, economic, and

market transformation effects of the overall

program. The techniques used were a mix

of manufacturers’ and consumers’ surveys,

direct internal information produced by

the subsidy system, and third parties’ sta-

tistical and contextual analyses. The M&E

component was contracted out to Synergic

Resources Corporation and then to Navigant

Consulting.

Other stakeholders in the project included

the Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency

(FEWE), CFL manufacturers such as Philips,

luminaries manufacturers such as Energy Sav-

ings (ES) Systems, and an advisory committee

with representatives of these organizations as

well as the Institute for Environment Protec-

tion, the Institute for Sustainable Develop-

ment, and the Polish Energy Conservation

Agency. (See Appendix A for an organiza-

tional chart of the project.)

15

2 METHODOLOGY

The following methodology was used by

the Study Team to conduct this impact as-

sessment:

Preliminary documentation review: The

Study Team initiated the mandate with a pre-

liminary review of documentation identified

in conjunction with the World Bank. This

contributed to the preparation of the detailed

proposed evaluation methodology and spe-

cific data collection tools. The Study Team

briefly reviewed documents, Web sites, and

other sources relevant to the project and to

the long-term impact assessment of DSM/EE

projects. (For a list of documents reviewed,

please see Appendix B.)

Development of a detailed evaluation meth-

odology: Based on the preliminary documen-

tation review, preliminary discussions with

World Bank staff, and experience and lessons

learned from other impact assessments, the

Study Team developed a detailed proposed

evaluation methodology for impact assess-

ment covering all aspects to be reviewed.

The draft methodology was sent to the World

Bank in Washington for review.

Development of the impact evaluation matri-

ces and data collection tools: The Study Team

developed evaluation matrices, which were

at the core of the data gathering and analysis

process. Specific matrices were developed for

each aspect of the project. Matrices addressed

the overarching objectives through detailed

sub-questions, development of appropriate

indicators of performance (using results-based

management methodology), identification of

relevant data sources, methods of data collec-

tion, and sampling approaches as required.

The evaluation matrices and associated tools

built on the final evaluations of the project,

from whence data informed a baseline from

which to measure sustained outcome achieve-

ment and larger impacts in the sector and the

country. The development of the matrices was

completed following an iterative approach

with the World Bank and other relevant proj-

16

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

ect stakeholders, prior to the missions in the

field. As results-based management methodol-

ogy dictates, these evaluation tools were de-

veloped in an iterative fashion and remained

flexible to be adjusted based on contextual

and current realities in the field.

Inception mission to Washington: Before the

field missions, a member of the Study Team

met with key World Bank and IFC staff in

Washington. The purpose of the inception

mission was to collect more information

and documents related to each project to be

reviewed and to get more details on potential

key informants to meet in the field. The mis-

sion also allowed the Study Team and the

client to finalize the discussion related to the

detailed proposed methodology and project

context and to begin the process of data col-

lection with key project-related staff.

Logistical arrangements for field missions:

Given the time elapsed since project closure,

the field mission was preceded by an exten-

sive logistical effort to identify and contact

the relevant stakeholders. Where possible,

original project stakeholders were targeted,

including both project implementers and ben-

eficiaries. In the field, logistical arrangements

continued to be difficult, as making contact

with key stakeholders was a challenge for a

project completed years ago. A local resource

was hired to assist with this aspect.

In-depth desk review: The further in-depth

review of all available project-related and

country or sectorally related documents al-

lowed the Study Team to acquire a thorough

understanding of the project reviewed and

of the context of both the country and sector

and to identify and develop strategies to cope

with any unforeseen barriers and challenges

to the evaluation mission. The review also

allowed further identification of persons to be

met, as well as a more in-depth understanding

of both the successes and challenges experi-

enced by the project. The desk review also

included exploratory phone interviews with

key informants.

Field mission: Two members of the Study

Team undertook a two-week mission to

Poland. They conducted interviews that

constituted the primary tool for qualitative

research. The team interviewed all key infor-

mants from various stakeholder groups. The

interviewees included representatives from

the executing agency, relevant ministries,

electric utilities, municipal representatives,

environmental nongovernmental organi-

zations (ENGOs), energy consultants, the

private sector, consumers, retailers, CFL and

luminaire manufacturers, and other relevant

stakeholder groups. (A list of stakeholders

interviewed is found in Appendix C.)

In addition, the Study Team conducted a

basic retail survey in major cities in Poland.

This involved visiting the major large, me-

dium-size, and small stores that sell CFLs and

luminaries, as well as electric and lighting

specialty shops, in order to assess availability,

Methodology

17

EE lighting promotion, and shelf space, prices,

types, brands, and other relevant data.

To learn more about some primary beneficia-

ries of the project, the Study Team held a fo-

cus group of consumers in Warsaw, in order

to collect detailed quantitative and qualitative

data to be measured against the outcomes of

the project and to assess the current state of

affairs. The team contracted with the most

nationally recognized social science research

firm (PINTOR) to assist with the organization

and independent administration of a survey

to cover these project beneficiaries. The focus

group allowed for a verification and triangula-

tion of findings from other sources.

While in the field, the team also collected

further documentation, including relevant

reports, statistical analyses, sectoral docu-

ments, policies, and laws, in an attempt to

collect documents that could not be easily

retrieved from a distance.

Data analysis: At this stage, the Study Team

compiled and analyzed all collected data.

This stage included the comprehensive and

statistical analysis of all relevant quantitative

and qualitative data. Contextual elements

were presented along with statistical results,

in order to facilitate their interpretation and

the subsequent conclusions, lessons, and

recommendations. Data triangulation was

achieved through multiple data collecting

sources, procedures, and strategies, allowing

for verification and support of the findings

presented.

Reporting: This report represents the final

version of the impact assessment report. It

integrates comments made by the World

Bank during the review process.

19

3.1 Project Context

Starting in 1992, Poland’s economy began

to grow as it recovered from the loss of

traditional markets and the shock of the

country’s initial transition away from central

planning. This renewed industrial production

was accompanied by a more rational use of

energy, which meant that Poland’s energy

consumption remained relatively stable, at

levels approximately 30 percent lower than

in 1989.1 Despite these marked improve-

ment in terms of energy efficiency at the

beginning of the 1990s, Poland’s economy

could still be characterized by inefficient

energy use.

In 1993, the United States Agency for In-

ternational Development funded a study

of DSM potential in Poland that identified

significant energy consumption associated

with lighting in the residential, commercial,

and industrial sectors. In the residential sector

in 1993, lighting use accounted for 14,550

gigawatt-hours (GWh), or 55 percent of total

electricity consumption for the sector, repre-

senting a total installed end-use capacity of

13,250 megawatts. This was consistent with

an almost exclusive reliance on inefficient in-

candescent lighting technology in homes and

the low incidence of other major electric ap-

pliances, such as heating or air-conditioning

equipment. In 1994, there were an estimated

209.5 million incandescent general lighting

services (GLS) lamps in use in Poland. The

residential sector used the most, 191 million

(91 percent); the commercial sector used 18

million GLS lamps (9 percent); and the indus-

trial sector used 500,000 GLS lamps.

The Polish CFL market was established in

1992, when Philips Lighting Poland began,

at very low levels, selling CFLs domestically.

Prior to this, sales in Poland of imported CFLs

had been negligible, and Philips was export-

ing most of the CFLs it was producing there.

Prior to the PELP program, CFLs cost at least

PLN (or zloty) 38 ($15.14) at retail, compared

with PLN 1 (40¢) for an incandescent lamp.

3 PELP PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION

20

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

Although CFLs were already a cost-effective

investment for Polish consumers at prevailing

electricity rates, this price difference posed

a significant “first cost” barrier. Therefore,

some types of product subsidy to lower the

retail price was seen as the most effective

way to stimulate the market. In addition,

benefits of CFL use needed to be spread and

raised at various levels to further stimulate

consumer interest. The potential market was

significant, with Poland’s population nearing

35 million.

3.2 Achieved Project Outcomes

Project outcomes can be defined as observ-

able results that can be measured at the end

of a project. Based on the review of existing

reports and evaluations, this chapter summa-

rizes the project outcomes achieved in terms

of the objectives described in Chapter 1 – re-

ducing GHG emissions in Poland, maximiz-

ing benefits from domestic CFL manufacturing

resources, developing the capacity of Polish

entities to deliver DSM resources, and dem-

onstrating the value of DSM programs.

3.2.1 Energy Savings and Reduction

in GHG Emissions

Within the context of the M&E component

of the PELP project, a final evaluation of

project outcomes in terms GHG reduction

was realized.

The direct impacts were estimated using stan-

dard evaluation methods for residential light-

ing programs. PELP’s energy impacts were

quantified through impact parameters, such

as the number of CFLs installed in each type

of room (kitchen, living room, or bathroom,

for example), the average number of hours

each room’s CFL was on over the course of

one year, and so on. Once the program’s

annual impact in terms of energy savings (in

kilowatt-hours, kWh) was estimated for the

life of the lamps, these values were then con-

verted to the total amount of carbon dioxide

(CO2) reduced using annual estimates of the

emission rates of plants generating marginal

power.

According to the final evaluation, the CFL

subsidy component of PELP produced direct

and verifiable electricity savings of at least

435 GWh and GHG reductions totaling at

least 529,000 tons of CO2. These direct im-

pacts refer to the effect of the purchase and

installation of subsidized CFLs only during

the two-year CFL subsidy program, exclusive

of any spillover or market transformation ef-

fects (that is, installations resulting indirectly

from the program).

This evaluation also provided the estimated

total program impacts, which account for

the overall market transformation impacts of

the program (all aspects of the project) and

therefore are larger than the direct impacts of

the CFL subsidy project component. Accord-

ing to the evaluation, the entire PELP project

produced a total electricity savings of at least

2,320 GWh and GHG reductions of at least

2.79 million tons of CO2. Total estimated

PELP Project Implementation

21

program savings included those resulting

from the transformation of the Polish CFL

market attributable to PELP. Data indicate

that PELP accelerated the maturation of the

Polish CFL market toward saturation within

approximately three years. The methodol-

ogy used to calculate total program impact

is discussed further in Chapter 4.

3.2.2 Project Benefits to the

Polish Economy

The final evaluation of PELP highlighted the

several transformations that occurred in the

CFL market in Poland between the beginning

and the end of the project. The major transfor-

mations occurred at the following levels:

• Price: By the end of the PELP initiative, the

retail price of CFLs had decreased by 34

percent in real terms relative to 1995.

• Penetration rate: PELP significantly in-

creased the number of Polish household

using CFLs. CFL penetration in Poland

increased from 11.5 percent of households

prior to PELP to 33.2 percent one year af-

ter the PELP initiative. The penetration of

CFLs was then higher than in many other

countries, even some of the higher-income

countries such as the United Kingdom and

the United States.

• Sales: CFL sales increased in Poland at

more than double the rate in the rest of

Central and Eastern Europe.

• Stock of CFLs: CFLs are more widely

stocked. This wider retail availability was

being sustained.

• Consumer intention: The percentage of

consumers intending to purchase CFLs in-

creased from 29.2 percent to 37.8 percent,

and they intended to purchase significantly

more CFLs (2.41 in the first program year

to 3.45 post-program).

• Distribution system: Prior to PELP, distri-

bution of CFLs was primarily from manu-

facturers to wholesalers to small retail

shops selling a limited range of electrical

products. During the program, CFLs also

began to appear in the new hypermarkets

and supermarkets that were becoming

popular, and also in home centers.

• Consumers’ allegiance: 97 percent of

purchasers of CFLs intend to replace their

CFLs with another one when the current

bulb burned out.

• Media coverage: Print media coverage in-

creased and shifted from explaining CFLs

to describing where and how to best use

them, indicative that CFLs are becoming

more common rather than something that

needed to be introduced to consumers.

• Number of manufacturers: New manufac-

turers entered the Polish market.

In terms of the impact on manufacturers,

restricting participation to Polish manufac-

turers did not prove to be an effective way

to strengthen them.2 The “Polish content”

requirement did not appear to benefit any

parties. Rather, this requirement excluded the

second largest manufacturer of CFLs serving

Poland (Osram). Although every effort was

made to encourage small and medium-size

22

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

enterprises to participate through widespread

outreach and targeted negotiations, market

conditions worked against their full involve-

ment. The ones that initially participated in

PELP were either consolidated into larger part-

ners or chose to leave the market. However, it

is important to recognize that it may be overop-

timistic for market transformation programs to

expect to accomplish “mixed agendas” (such

as supporting local manufacturers) in addition

to the primary objective of accelerating the

penetration of a certain technology.

3.2.3 Level of Awareness to Potential Ben-

efits of DSM Programs and DSM Capacity

Building

A primary goal of the DSM pilot was to de-

termine the impact of the CFL installation on

critical locations with capacity problems in

the distribution system, including the peak

demand, load shape, and energy impacts.

The IFC/GEF Poland Efficient Lighting Proj-

ect: Demand-Side Management Pilot Report 3 demonstrated that:

• Reduction in peak demand can be signifi-

cant: Monitored results indicated that a 15

percent drop in residential peak electricity

demand was achieved in targeted neigh-

borhoods of selected distribution utilities

facing near-term capacity constraints.

Moreover, some households exhibited up

to a 40 percent reduction in peak power

usage.

• CFL sales achieved during a short amount

of time can be high: In the pilot project,

more than 33,000 CFLs were sold in six

weeks.

• Saturation levels can top five CFLs per

households: In the targeted districts,

saturation levels reached 5.36 units per

household.

• High-density installation of CFLs does

not have an impact on power quality: No

adverse power quality effects could be

ascribed to the installation of non-power-

quality-corrected CFLs.

• DSM could be a cost-effective option for

electric distribution utilities: Researchers

concluded that given the avoidance of the

need to build new transformer capacity

as a result of the savings generated by the

high concentration of CFLs installed, the

program would have been cost-effective

for the local electric distribution utility to

implement itself.

As expected, the project helped build capac-

ity within the utility sector to successfully

implement future DSM efforts. It demon-

strated the direct and indirect economic and

environmental benefits to be derived from

DSM efforts. The project built awareness and

developed the capacity necessary for broader

DSM initiatives, which are critical for the

long-term success of integrated resource plan-

ning in Poland. The cost of reducing GHG

emissions could in certain cases be negative

because the DSM programs potentially cost

less than building or upgrading power plants

and the power grid.4

23

4.1 Post-project Context

Before discussing impacts as such, it is useful to

look at the overall macro policy and economic

context surrounding the post-implementation

of PELP. In 1997, the Polish Energy Law (1997)

was enacted. It provided official policy sup-

port for EE-related measures. For instance, it

espoused the need for municipalities to plan

for EE at the local level by developing energy

plans. It states, “local government is respon-

sible for elaboration of heat supply plans… and

utilisation of surplus local energy sources.”

The law further states that each municipality

should have someone responsible for EE in a

municipal government position.

Recently, however, the focus of government

support and policies with regards to energy

and the environment has been on renewable

energy (RE) rather than EE. The implementa-

tion and enforcement of the energy law with

respect to EE has therefore lagged somewhat

behind.

Indeed, in recent years accession to the

European Union (EU) has been the highest

political priority for Poland. The negotiation

process toward full EU membership started

in 1998. In January and February 1999,

the first technical phase of the negotiations

on the environment chapter of the acquis

communautaire began with a review of the

environmental legislation system. The trans-

position of more than 170 EU legislative

acts, some of which directly or indirectly

affected the national GHG emission profile,

was completed in December 2002. Poland

was the biggest new country to join the EU

on May 1, 2004.

In line with the focus on EU accession, in

September 2000 the Polish Council of Minis-

ters endorsed the Renewable Energy Strategy,

and in August 2001 the was accepted by the

Parliament. The strategy, put forward by the

Ministry of Environment, calls for 7.5 percent

of primary energy to come from renewable

sources by 2010. EU accession, the primary

4 IMPACT ASSESSMENT

24

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

motivation for change in government policies

in recent years, places much more emphasis

on RE than EE. It is quite clear that “the Polish

policy regarding renewable energy is guided

by the accession to the EU.”5

An important contextual factor is that Poland

currently has overcapacity in the electricity

generation sector; DSM/EE is therefore not

the prime priority of utilities either. Gener-

ally, DSM/EE is marginally being promoted

by utilities in the following cases:

• When it allows for avoidance of large in-

frastructure investments: Therefore, given

the overcapacity in Poland, utilities are

most often interested in “peak shaving”

only, which refers to reducing the amount

of electricity consumption during peak

times of the day or year (in the winter, for

example, or weeknights after work).

• When there is competition with alternate

sources of energy and distribution compa-

nies (such as gas distribution companies):

EE becomes a way for a utility to secure a

market through long-term service contracts

attached to the EE measures for the end us-

ers, which usually means for the end user a

better service or lower monthly electricity

bills.

• When end users, such as municipalities,

are pushing for EE themselves: This is

the exception rather than the rule how-

ever,, as municipalities normally require

a “partner” with the necessary financial

resources and capacity to undertake EE

initiatives. They rarely have the funds to

finance the EE measures themselves, given

their precarious financial situation in the

new government decentralization now in

taking place in Poland.

The context for coal production and use in

Poland is also significant for this assessment

of PELP, in order to better understand the

enabling and economic environment in

the country. It is important to note that the

coal sector is a central part of the country’s

economy and society, providing 80 percent

of energy generation. The sector provides

many jobs. The larger context for transferring

to other forms of power generation remains a

complex issue in Poland, in both economic

and social terms. With unemployment cur-

rently at 18 percent and with more job loss to

be expected by reducing coal production, it is

a sensitive social and political issue. In addi-

tion, the historically influential “coal lobby”

remains active in Poland. This is why, some

stakeholders noted, government support

was not perceived as being strong for PELP

and similar EE initiatives, which encourage a

decrease in energy consumption and there-

fore in coal electricity generation. From the

government’s perspective, the political and

social costs of creating new jobs in the RE

sector, in biomass energy production, for ex-

ample, are much lower than the political and

social costs of reducing energy production

through DSM or EE, which involves laying

off coal miners without creating alternative

jobs in the energy sector.

Impact Assessment

25

In December 2002, Poland ratified the

Kyoto Protocol, thus making a commitment

to reduce its aggregate emissions of GHGs so

that average annual emissions in the period

2008—12 do not exceed its assigned amounts

(6 percent below 1988 total GHG emissions).

However, given the challenges of both the

economic transformation process and the EU

accession process, at the beginning of the

twenty-first century climate change is not seen

as a political priority in Poland. Correspond-

ingly, the Study Team of the Third National

Report of Poland on the climate change treaty

noted a low financial budget and very limited

administrative capacity in this field.6 Still, Po-

land expressed its intention to make use of the

flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol.

Poland has undertaken several activities to

mitigate emissions of GHGs; these were

actions implemented jointly or joint imple-

mentation projects with Norway (such as

coal-to-gas conversion in 30 nonindustrial

boiler houses and energy efficiency improve-

ments in new residential buildings), with the

Netherlands (heating system modernizations,

district heating systems, biomass boiler instal-

lations), and with Canada (small hydropower

plants). In addition, Poland intended to join

the EU emissions trading market in 2005.

In terms of government commitment to EE

for reducing GHG emissions, it is important

to note that total GHG emissions in Poland

fell by 32 percent between 1988 and 2000,

largely reflecting the restructuring of its

economy and energy sector. The greatest

emission reductions were achieved in en-

ergy supply (—32 percent) and energy use in

the residential and commercial sector (—59

percent). This drastic reduction in GHGs is

an important part of the context of current

priorities in Poland. In 2000, Poland’s GHG

reductions were already well beyond the

Kyoto target of a 6 percent drop from 1988’s

level. Nonetheless, the Study Team of the

Third National Report of Poland felt that

major domestic GHG reduction potential

had not been fully exploited, as Poland’s

GHG emission intensity (the per unit gross

domestic product (GDP) per capita, for ex-

ample) was high compared with that of West

European countries.

It is in this context – accession to the EU,

overcapacity for electricity generation,

achieved GHG emission reduction, and the

social implications for switching away from

coal production – that EE was found quite

far down the list of government priorities in

Poland in 2004. Therefore, although some-

times in the official discourse the government

supports EE, it is much more inclined toward

the transition to RE sources when it comes

to action. This has had a significant impact

on the evolution of EE in Poland and on the

assessment of the impacts of PELP.

4.2 Findings and Analysis

4.2.1 Global Environmental Impacts

This area of assessment focuses on analyz-

ing how much the project has affected the

26

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

global environment. This section begins by

reassessing the results obtained from the

final evaluation conducted by Navigant at

the end of the project (see section 3.2.1).

Although data and statistics were difficult to

obtain for assessing energy savings from EE

lighting, which complicated extrapolations

for estimating GHG emission reduction, the

Study Team attempted to assess this to the

extent possible and also to assess whether

Navigant’s projections were still accurate,

given what we knew about the Polish CFL

market in 2004.

At any given year X after a project start-up, the

impact of a project in terms of the global stock

of GHG can be defined as the estimated dif-

ference between TX-real, the estimated global

stock of GHG in year X, and TX-hypothetical, the

hypothetical global stock of GHG in year X

had the project not occurred.

have been realized. Under this assumption

the impact on PELP in that year and in every

subsequent year would be nil and PELP

would not have had an impact on the CFL

market saturation level. This assumption im-

plied that with PELP, market saturation would

have been achieved earlier than it would

have been in the absence of the program,

but that ultimately the maximum market size

would remain unchanged.

Estimation of Energy Saving

The amount of energy saved from the project

was calculated by using the estimate of GWh

savings per CFL derived from the direct im-

pact analysis7 and by defining a projection of

CFL sales from the start of the program until

several years in the future. This projection

was then compared with a baseline projec-

tion for Polish CFL sales if there had been

no PELP project. The baseline used was

based on the average sales growth rate that

the International Agency for Energy-Efficient

Lighting (IAEEL) estimated for all of Eastern

Europe, including Poland. Total estimates for

GWh saved were calculated based on the

following formula:

Project Intervention TX

Yes Stock of GHG X-real

No Stock of GHG X-hypothetical

To evaluate the total project impacts in terms

of GHG reduction, Navigant determined year

X as the year in which the Polish CFL market

would have reach saturation in the absence of

the PELP project. In that year, they assumed

that the stock of CFLs installed in Poland

would be the same in the two scenarios and

that all global environmental benefits would

ES GWh CFLSprog CFLnoprog ESfactoi

i

n

i( ) ( )*= −

=∑

1

rri

ES(GWh) = Total program estimated energy

saving in GWh in year i

i = Year 1 of the project ( 1995)

n = Number of years between the first year

of the project and the year in which the

Impact Assessment

27

counter-factual scenario for the CFL market

would have reached saturation (2005)

CFLSprogi: Stock of CFL installed in the year

i with PELP

CFLSnoprogi: Estimated stock of CFL in-

stalled in the year i in the counter-factual

scenario (no PELP)

ESfactori: Energy saving factor per CFL in-

stalled in GWh in the year i

Estimation of GHG Emission Reduction

Reductions in GHGs (or CO2 specifically)

resulting from the net direct electricity savings

were determined by FEWE using an hourly

production cost model to determine which

power plants would be operated less due to

the electricity savings:

ACO2: Total program estimated CO2

avoided

i = Year 1 of the project ( 1995)

n = Number of years between the first year

of the project and the year in which the

counter-factual scenario the CFL market

would have reached saturation

ESi: Estimated energy saving in year i in

KWh

CO2RIi: CO2 Reduction Index (kg CO2/ kWh)

= Average tons of CO2 saved per kWh not

produced in year i

The Study Team reassessed the hypotheses

used by Navigant to calculate total program

impact.

Market saturation level and timing

During project implementation, the potential

Table 4.1 Total Estimated Energy Saving

Thousands of Bulbs

Estimated Stock of CFLs Stock of CFLs Added CFLs Energy saving Energy Saving Installed Installed from PELP factor per (GWh) with PELP with no PELP CFLSprogi- CFL installed in kWh/bulb CFLSprogi CFLSnoprogi CFLSnoprogi ESfactori ES(GWh)

1996 6216 4701 1515 56,7 86

1997 9681 6809 2873 56,7 163

1998 13645 9219 4426 53,3 236

1999 18188 11982 6206 53,3 331

2000 22152 14062 8090 53,3 432

2001 25515 16318 9198 53,3 491

2002 25515 18771 6745 53,3 360

2003 25515 21694 3821 53,3 204

2004 25515 25172 343 53,3 18

2005 25515 25515 0 53,3 0

Total 2320

ACO ES CO RIi

i

n

i21

2=

=∑ *

28

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

size of the Polish market for CFLs was esti-

mated by the International Institute for Energy

Conservation (IIEC) to be 21—26 million units,

with annual sales reaching saturation at 4

million units.8 When Navigant conducted

the evaluation at the end of the PELP proj-

ect, the three leading Polish manufacturers

were asked to forecast annual sales for 1998

through 2002 and the year they believed the

market would reach saturation. The responses

were weighted by each manufacturer’s 1997

sales in Poland. The forecast of CFL sales

increases between 1998 and 2002 were as

follows:

At the same time, manufacturers predicted

that market saturation would be attained

when the average number of CFLs per

household reached 2.43 (that is, 25.5 million

CFLs based on a constant 10.5 million house-

holds). This implied that market saturation

was to occur in 2001 with the PELP Project

and in 2005 without the project.9 Navigant

took the assumption of a constant number

of households in Poland for conservative

purposes; however, it should be noted that

this was inconsistent with a 17.1 sales growth

rate predicted for 2002.

In 2004, the projected number of households

in Poland was estimated at 13.7 million.10

Keeping the 2.43 CFLs per household as the

saturation level, this would imply that 33.29

million of CFLs were installed by 2004. This

alone is consistent with the significantly

higher annual sales than predicted by the

IIEC and Navigant (about 4 million CFLs per

year). However, as the number of annual

Table 4.2 Total Estimated GHG Reduction

Estimated Energy Saving CO2 reduction CO2 reduction (GWh) index (000 tons)

1996 85.9 1.27 109.1

1997 162.8 1.24 201.9

1998 236.1 1.23 290.4

1999 331.1 1.21 400.6

2000 431.6 1.20 517.9

2001 490.7 1.19 583.9

2002 359.8 1.18 424.6

2003 203.8 1.18 240.5

2004 18.3 1.17 21.4

2320.1 2790.4

Table 4.3 Forecasts of CFL Sales Increases

Year Sales Increase Over the Previous Year

1998 14.4%

1999 14.6%

2000 15.9%

2001 16.0%

2002 17.1%

Impact Assessment

29

CFL sales is currently estimated by major CFL

manufacturers at about 9 million, using the

17.1 percent growth rate for 2002 and a con-

stant annual sales growth rate of 12.2 percent

per year in 2003 and 2004 to arrive at the

estimated 9 million units sold in 2004 would

mean that the total stock of CFLs installed

would have already reached more than 39

million units. This indicates that the satura-

tion level of CFLs per household in Poland is

probably over 2.43 per household.

Everything else being equal, a higher number

of households and a saturation level higher

than 2.43 CFLs per household would imply a

greater impact of PELP in terms of reduction

in total energy consumption. This would be

true even if we assume that this higher satura-

tion level has not been induced by PELP and

is in fact the baseline saturation level. Based

on the assumption of an annual sales growth

rate of 17.1 percent in 2002 and 12.2 percent

in 2003 and 2004, total GHG emission reduc-

tion could be more that 35 percent greater

than estimated by Navigant.

Energy saving factor per

CFL installed in GWh

Energy saving factors per CFL installed in

GWh were calculated by Navigant using the

following formula:

Esfactor i= Energy saving factor per CFL

installed in GWh in year i

∆W i = Wattage of bulb replace minus watt-

age of CFL installed per location

HrsOP i = Hours of operation of the CFL

installed per location

ADJfactor i = Adjustment factor in year

i=free ridership factor in year i *persistence

factor in year i *snapback factor in year i

*usage adjustment in year i *T&D losses

factor in year i

An in-depth reassessment of the energy sav-

ing factor per CFL installed was beyond the

scope of this impact assessment. However, it

should be mentioned here that growing num-

bers of new, cheaper, less-efficient CFLs on

the Polish market might have had a negative

impact on the energy saving factor per CFL

installed. Low-cost CFLs can be up to 50 per-

cent less efficient than other brands. It is not

clear what fraction of the market share is held

by the cheaper and less-efficient CFLs, but

according to the major CFL manufacturers,

the market share of low-cost CFLs has been

growing steadily over the last few years.

Everything else being equal, a growing mar-

ket share of low-cost CFLs would imply a

lower energy savings factor per CFL installed,

inducing a lower impact of PELP in terms of

a reduction in total energy consumption. For

example, if half the stock of CFLs installed

was 50 percent less efficient than assumed

by Navigant between 2000 and 2004, this

would imply that the total GHG emission re-

ductions resulting from PELP would be about

15 percent less than Navigant estimated. It

ESfactor GWh W HrsOP ADJfactori i i i( ) * *= ∆

30

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

should be noted here that it is extremely un-

likely that as much as 50 percent of the stock

installed between 2000 and 2004 was 50

percent less efficient than in previous years,

and these numbers are used for conservative

estimation purposes.

Based on this analysis, the Study Team con-

cluded that the total impact of the PELP proj-

ect in terms of reduction in GHG emissions

as estimated by Navigant in 1999 had already

been achieved. Using available information

on the current CFL market, the Study Team

approximated the total GHG impact attribut-

able to PELP at 3.62 million tons of reduced

CO2, a substantially higher figure than the

2.79 million tons estimated by Navigant in

1999. This difference was due essentially

to a larger than originally estimated market

saturation level for CFLs in Poland. Details

and assumptions are shown in Table 4.4.

It should be noted that this result is obtained

holding the very conservative assumption

made by Navigant concerning the adjustment

factors, in particular the arguable free rider-

ship factor of 15 percent.11 A free ridership

factor could be included in an adjustment

factor to take into account that a portion of

the households would have purchased and

installed the same number of CFL bulbs with

or without PELP. However, in this particular

case it could be argued that the free riders

included in the numbers for the PELP case

Table 4.4 CFL Sales, Energy Savings, and GHG Emission Reductions with and without PELP

With PELP Counter-factual Scenario

Energy Total Saving CO2 Total Annual Stock Added Factor Reduc- CO2 Annual Annual Stock Sales Annual of CFLs per CFL Estimated tion Reduc- Sales Sales of CFLs of Sales CFLs from Installed Energy Index tion of CFLs Growth Installed CFLs Growth Installed PELP in kWh/ Saving (kg CO2/ (000 (000) Rate (000) (000) Rate (000) (000) bulb (GWh) KWh) tons)

1996 2938 103.3% 6 216 1621 30.0% 4701 1515 56.7 86 1.27 109.1

1997 3465 17.9% 9 681 2107 30.0% 6809 2872 56.7 163 1.24 201.9

1998 3964 14.4% 13 645 2411 14.4% 9219 4426 53.3 236 1.23 290.4

1999 4543 14.6% 18 188 2763 14.6% 11982 6205 53.3 331 1.21 400.6

2000 5208 15.9% 22 152 3202 15.9% 14062 8090 40.0 324 1.20 388.4

2001 5971 16.0% 25 615 3715 16.0% 16318 9298 40.0 372 1.19 442.7

2002 6846 17.1% 29 649 4350 17.1% 18771 10878 40.0 435 1.18 513.6

2003 7849 12.2% 34 104 4880 12.2% 21481 12623 40.0 505 1.18 596.0

2004 9000 12.2% 39 015 5474 12.2% 24468 14548 40.0 582 1.17 681.0

Total 3034.0 3623.7a Growth rate for 2003 and 2004 were set at 12.2 percent so that the annual sales for 2004 would be of 9 million units, as estimated

by the major national CFL manufacturers.b Total stock of CFL = previous year stock + the annual sales – 90 percent of the CFLs installed five years earlier.c The energy saving factor used for 2000 onward assume that 50 percent of the CFL stock installed is 50 percent less efficient than

the average stock installed in 1999.

Impact Assessment

31

are also included in the counter-factual

scenario.

In addition, it is worth noting that the global

environmental benefits in terms of GHG

emission reductions induced by the projects

that were inspired by the PELP experience (or

that replicated PELP to some degree) could

be significant. Anticipated impacts of three

key PELP follow-up or replicated projects

are in the range of 18.4 million tons. (See

Table 4.5.)

Energy Consumption in Poland

Furthermore, Figure 4.1, with statistics col-

lected by FEWE, demonstrates that although

there was an increase in GDP in Poland over

the last few years, energy consumption has

Table 4.5 GHG Emission Reductions in Programs That Replicated PELP

Post-PELP Projects Tons of CO2 reduced (000)

PNEC (Post PELP Project) 10

Efficiency Lighting Initiative 14,735

Polish Efficient Motor Project 3,682

Total 18,427a See section 4.3 on Replicability for more information on these projects.b Polska 2000.c GEF, Efficient Lighting Initiative, Project Document.d GEF, Polish Energy Efficient Motors Programme (PEMP), Project Document.

Figure 4.1Energy Consumption, Intensity and GDP in Poland 1997—2002 (FEWE)

Ele

ctri

city

co

nsu

mp

tio

n [

TW

h]

&G

DP

[10

^9

PL

N]

Ele

ctri

city

co

nsu

mp

tio

n [

TW

h]

&G

DP

[10

^9

PL

N]

Year

Gross Domestic Product [10^9 PLN, price 2003]

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 220

210

200

190

180

170

160

Electricity intensity [kWh/10^3 PLN 2003]

Electricity total consumption [TWh]

32

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

remained rather constant and energy intensity

has decreased substantially. A representative

from the manufacturer Philips – who was

quite involved with PELP, was around before

the project, and has remained a significant

player in the lighting sector in Poland – af-

firmed that “PELP contributed to a general re-

duction in electricity consumption in Poland”

through its promotion and expansion of CFL

use. Figure 4.1 substantiates that electricity

consumption has stayed rather constant over

time, with minor fluctuations.

4.2.2 Impacts on Institutional

Development

While increased institutional development

and capacity was an outcome of the project

in 1998, sustainable capacity and institutional

development are important parts of this im-

pact assessment. At the overall market level,

capacity impacts can be looked at in terms

of five required capacities:

• Capacity for information management and

awareness raising on EE and DSM

• Capacity for policy making, planning, and

decision making on EE and DSM

• Institutional capacity to implement deci-

sions on EE and DSM

• Capacity to enforce legislation

• Capacity to pool resources (human, finan-

cial, ecological and technological)

This section presents, in a summary fashion,

an assessment of the various capacities that

have been developed and in some cases sus-

tained over the years since the project ended.

Although there have been impacts on institu-

tional development, various capacities at vari-

ous levels still need to be built to further EE

and DSM to induce full market transformation

in the lighting sector in Poland. In addition,

some of the challenges being encountered

in the development of EE or use of DSM are

also brought forth in this analysis.

The Study Team assessed impacts of the

project on institutional development and the

sustainability of the capacities developed or

required to sustain market transformation by

looking at the following actors in the EE/DSM

market in Poland:

• Various government ministries: level of

awareness, promotion, and use of efficient

lighting and other EE policies, plans, regu-

lations, and so on, including DSM

• Involved municipalities: level of aware-

ness, capacity, promotion, and use of ef-

ficient lighting and other EE policies, plans,

regulations, and so on, including DSM

• Electric utilities: level of awareness, capac-

ity, and use of EE in the lighting and other

sectors and of DSM approaches

• Academic institutions such as AGH Uni-

versity: level of awareness, capacity, and

promotion of EE in the lighting and other

sectors and of DSM

• Private sector actors, such as energy or en-

vironmental consulting firms, and energy

or environmental institutes or agencies,

such as FEWE: level of awareness, capac-

Impact Assessment

33

ity, and promotion of EE in the lighting

and other sectors and of DSM

• ENGOs: level of awareness, capacity, and

promotion EE in the lighting and other

sectors and of DSM

• Energy service companies (ESCOs): devel-

opment in the EE market in Poland since

the project

This assessment focuses on the current capac-

ities of these stakeholders, and capacities are

analyzed at national, county or voivodship,

and municipal levels. For ease of discussion,

the specific capacity developed by manufac-

turers and the sustainability of that capacity

is dealt with in section 4.2.3.

Capacity for Information Management and

Awareness Raising on EE and DSM

National level

Awareness raising at the national level must

have some degree of government support,

and this would require, at a minimum, that

the government is aware of and recognizes

these issues as priorities. This study has

shown that, to some degree, EE and DSM are

not current priorities of the Polish govern-

ment, although the team met stakeholders

in, for example, the Ministry of Environ-

ment who are aware of issues surrounding

EE. The government is certainly committed

to raising awareness of renewable energy,

especially in the context of EU accession and

related commitments, but is not currently

actively promoting EE or DSM specifically,

for reasons noted earlier. This view was

confirmed by numerous stakeholders in-

terviewed through the assessment mission,

which highlighted the general absence of

the government as an active player in proj-

ect implementation and afterwards in the

EE/DSM market scene.

There are, however, other places where this

capacity resides and is being exercised. For

example, AGH University and other aca-

demic institutions across the country have

expertise on EE and DSM and are spreading

it through their curriculum, building on the

PELP experience. PELP has contributed to

strengthening that capacity and AGH recog-

nition. According to academic stakeholders,

the topic is very popular now at AGH and

at many other universities and colleges,

and, through the curriculum, awareness and

expertise on EE and DSM issues are being

transferred to the student body in various

localities. There are 18 universities and 20

technical colleges that are currently involved

in this kind of curriculum in Poland. Stake-

holders noted that these courses emerged

after or during PELP.

In various universities, demonstrations were

made during and after PELP, based on the

project’s experience, about the benefits of

using CFLs. In many classrooms, this contin-

ues to this day. Academics estimate that each

year, 1,800 experts in energy (most of whom

have training in EE and DSM) graduate from

these academic institutions. The demonstra-

tions at the university have also served as

34

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

key awareness-raising activities for utilities,

municipalities, and other actors.

AGH University stakeholders also noted that

PELP helped them learn how to teach others

about the positive effects of DSM and EE

lighting, including how to convey an often-

complicated technical message or argument

in lay terms. This has been a key capacity

that remains and that contributes to spread-

ing further awareness of EE and DSM at the

national level.

The ENGO Polish Network “Energie Cites”

is also spreading awareness of EE and DSM

nationally and to municipalities, building on

its PELP experience. The group is currently

working through other projects, such as EU-

funded projects, on these issues. PNEC stake-

holders argued that PELP helped raise their

profile as a nexus of information and capacity

for EE and DSM, and they have since built

on this to become an important player, both

nationally and regionally, with neighboring

countries in terms of national and regional

EE projects and awareness raising campaigns.

PNEC’s association has 33 municipalities in

Poland and regional links with countries like

Romania, Hungary, and Ukraine, all of which

they currently work with. (For more informa-

tion on PNEC’s projects and partners, both

national and regional, see section 4.3.) PNEC

actions, however, remain to date almost to-

tally project-dependent. The group’s capacity

to pull in long-term and secured funding to

finance its core information management

and awareness raising agendas for EE/DSM

remains limited.

Municipal level

Capacity for awareness raising at the munici-

pal level differs among municipalities. The

relation to PELP is relatively significant here,

as stakeholders suggested that some munici-

palities that were involved with the project

(or post-PELP) activities have this capacity and

awareness. For example, the municipality of

Elk is proud of its energy efficiency practices.

It was among the more successful areas of the

project and remains committed to EE today, at

least according to stakeholders interviewed.

Many other municipalities, however, have

little to no capacity for awareness raising on

EE issues or few financial resources for such

activity, according to most stakeholders. Un-

fortunately, this capacity, and will to exercise

it, is often “person-specific,” dependent on

a particular individual’s commitment to or

awareness of EE as an issue.

The capacity to raise awareness at the

municipal level currently resides within

organizations such as FEWE and energy

consulting firms and companies, which also

depend largely on project-specific funding.

Stakeholders suggested that FEWE and energy

consulting companies have been trying to

work with municipalities to raise awareness

and knowledge of EE at municipal levels.

These organizations continue to work with

schools and other institutional entities at the

municipal level to raise awareness of EE and

Impact Assessment

35

DSM, using experiences from PELP in their

approaches.

Beyond efficient lighting, consumers are

not organized to promote quality in the EE

and DSM market in a systematic fashion.

The consumer association, for instance,

does not have the staff, strategy, incentives,

and relationship with the market required

to act and organize consumer resources to

promote further the useful products in that

market and ensure quality control from an

independent perspective. From the perspec-

tive of sustainability, the project may not

have made the best use of some available

networks where such capacity resides, like

the Polish Federation of Consumers, which

even today could make a contribution to

spreading knowledge and awareness on EE

issues and products.

It should be noted here that the manufacturer

Philips also works at the municipal level to

raise EE awareness. Of course, the motive is

sales of CFLs, but the EE arguments are still

valid and help to raise awareness.

Interestingly, some stores and in particular

hypermarkets act as key actors raising aware-

ness of the benefits of CFLs and EE lighting

for consumers. The Study Team visited some

stores that had displays (sometimes paid for

by manufacturers, such as Osram) showing

the energy efficiency of CFLs and the longer

life to be expected from the purchase of the

EE bulb. The demonstration included a lit CFL

and a regular bulb in a lighting competition,

displaying hours in use, wattage used (energy

consumption), and life left, thus clearly illus-

trating the benefits of EE and CFLs. However,

the amount of media and overall publicity on

EE and CFLs has decreased significantly since

the end of PELP; manufacturers and consum-

ers both confirmed this. The most frequent

source of initial awareness about CFLs, ac-

cording to consumers from the representative

focus group surveyed by the evaluation, was

“word of mouth” from friends or family. For

one-third of consumers, this was the most

frequent response to the question of how they

became aware of the existence of CFLs.

Many stakeholders argued that the current

state of EE awareness-raising in Poland is,

to some extent, related to the project’s em-

phasis: the focus of PELP was on the product

(CFLs) and its financial advantages, and the

need to shift toward purchasing the product,

rather than on the rationale or motivations for

environmental actions that should underlie

that shift. Early in the project, advisory com-

mittee stakeholders (including representatives

from FEWE, academic institutions, and EN-

GOs) criticized the long-term approach of the

project based on this financial emphasis and

expressed these concerns to the Study Team.

As a consequence, over the long term aware-

ness of the link between energy-efficient

behavior or personal consumption habits and

the effects on the global environment were

not widely understood. Thus the capacity

for EE awareness raising at the municipal or

36

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

local level will require further emphasis and

continued efforts. It is recognized, however,

that the emphasis PELP placed on achieving

market transformation was appropriate in the

Polish context, so this observation is made in

a context of learning and for potential consid-

eration before future interventions.

Capacity for Policy Making, Planning, and

Decision Making on EE and DSM

National level

The 2000 RE strategy of the government of

Poland demonstrates some capacity for EE,

indicating that “information flow and help to

the local governments in the area of supply of

energy and rational use of energy, including

renewable energy sources should be granted,

secured at minimal environmental costs.”

Similarly, other official governmental docu-

ments also encourage efficient and sustain-

able energy planning at the local level, and

this is justified by the statement in the Polish

Energy Law from 1997: “local government

is responsible for elaboration of heat sup-

ply plans … and utilisation of surplus local

energy sources.” It is not likely that PELP has

had any impact on capacity at this level, as

such strategies and documents were drafted

before or early in the implementation of

PELP. This has been confirmed by stakeholder

interviews as well.

Nevertheless, the existence of the 1997 En-

ergy Law demonstrates that capacities exist

within various ministries (such as the Minis-

try of Environment or Ministry of Economy)

for policy making for EE and DSM. Yet, as

indicated earlier, the current government

focus at the level of planning (strategies for

action) and actual support is not as much

on EE and DSM as it is on RE production

and use.

The overall assessment thus is that the re-

quired capacity for policy making is indeed

in place, but the problem is the lack of capac-

ity or, at a minimum, a willingness to plan

and implement those policies. In that sense,

the national enabling environment for EE

market transformation is still incomplete. To

complicate matters, certain laws constrain

EE and DSM at other levels in the country.

For instance, the national law on municipal

budgets prevents municipalities from using

savings from DSM investments for replica-

tion of such actions. The law states that

money has to return to the national budget.

This, naturally, impedes further EE efforts in

some cases.

Municipal level

Renewable energy is, by its nature, dispersed

and closely linked to the local environment,

and it is clear that sustainable energy plan-

ning requires the involvement of munici-

palities throughout Poland.12 Under the 1997

Energy Law, local authorities are required to

develop local energy plans taking into ac-

count locally available renewable sources of

energy. However, “the most important barrier

to addressing sustainability in local energy

planning is lack of expertise at the local level,

Impact Assessment

37

which is extremely difficult to develop and

implement, owing to the lack of knowledge,

data and skills there.”13 The responsibility

for energy planning is clearly now at the

municipal level only, but this assessment con-

firmed that generally this capacity does not

exist systematically in most municipalities. In

addition, the decision to pursue such plans

seems to be person-specific once again – that

is, if EE is a priority for a person or certain

people at the municipal level, then plans are

pursued. Creating such champions, however,

once again requires adequate awareness rais-

ing capacity up-front.

Referring to the comprehensive energy

plans and sustainable energy strategies, lo-

cal governments can apply for investment

support offered by various public funds,

including national and local environmental

funds (for example, EcoFund) as well as EU

pre-accession funds. Thus far, according to

stakeholders and data collected, interested

municipalities have drawn on the existing

capacity in organizations like FEWE or

energy consultant firms to complete these

energy plans, using the available funding.

Although municipalities are required by law

to develop these plans, this is not strictly en-

forced, however. Data suggest that, at most,

only 30—40 percent of municipalities have

such plans. In addition, some stakeholders

noted that the criteria for getting access to

funds are both complex and often chang-

ing, making access to EE funds increasingly

difficult.

Institutional Capacity to Implement Deci-

sions on EE and DSM

National level

According to data collected and stakeholders

interviewed, this capacity is not strong in the

central government, which is exemplified by

a failure to pursue EE initiatives generally.

As pointed out repeatedly, EU accession

and the harmonization of Polish legislation

within that context is almost fully occupy-

ing the central government at the moment,

leaving little time and incentive to focus on

its implementation, especially within the

context of mixed priorities for EE versus re-

newable energy.

From a technical standpoint, the capacity

for implementing EE and DSM activities or

initiatives at the national level exists mostly

within academic institutions, such as AGH

University. Again, PELP had an indirect im-

pact on the development of such capacity.

As indicated, DSM and EE knowledge and

expertise is being spread all over the country

through courses and curriculum on these sub-

jects, using PELP as an example. Academic

stakeholders (some of whom were members

of associations like the Polish Ecological

Club) are still currently involved in the imple-

mentation of EE or DSM-related initiatives in

various parts of the country.

County/voivodship level

Technical capacity for EE and DSM generally

exists in electric utilities, according to the ma-

jority of stakeholders interviewed. However,

38

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

because of their focus on electricity sales and

the system’s overcapacity, implementation of

EE and DSM remains marginal. During PELP,

utilities were made aware of the benefits of

DSM and EE more generally. And since the

project some utilities have made use of DSM

approaches to avoid capital investments in

their distribution systems. For example, PSE,

the Polish Power Grid Company, did use

DSM approaches rather than investing in

upgrades. PSE maintains that they have EE

contracts with 50 municipalities. But as men-

tioned earlier, this type of initiative should be

considered as the exception rather than the

rule. Utilities are mainly interested in EE and

DSM for peak shaving.

As indicated, there are organizations with

the capacity to implement EE and DSM (such

as FEWE, energy consultants, and the Polish

Association of Engineers) that can and do

work on these issues at this level. PNEC too

has this capacity, and it is also involved with

the implementation of DSM and EE-related

initiatives in various parts of the country,

some of which are discussed in section 4.3

on replicability.

Municipal level

As noted earlier, the capacity to implement

decisions does not exist systematically in mu-

nicipalities. When it is considered, munici-

palities draw on the capacities of other orga-

nizations. That is essentially what happened

in the context of the PELP pilot municipalities.

Under the laws, each municipality is required

to have one person responsible for EE, for

example. There are some isolated examples

where this capacity has been developed.

Generally speaking, however, this capacity is

not present and the law itself is not enforced,

resulting in almost no municipalities having

such a position filled at present.

FEWE has been trying to work with munici-

palities to create and build the capacity of a

position responsible for EE at the municipal

level, but the support for and enforcement of

this aspect is not strong, in the organization’s

view. This view is substantiated by represen-

tatives of municipalities met by the Study

Team. Capacity building at this institutional

level requires further efforts.

Manufacturers such as ES Systems, a lumi-

naire manufacturer and distributor, also have

the capacity to implement EE initiatives at the

municipal level. ES Systems has already im-

plemented extensive EE initiatives in Krakow

and is very busy with EE retrofitting of build-

ings, lighting systems for new buildings, and

EE activity in general. The company claims to

have benefited greatly from its experiences

in PELP in terms of the transformation of the

market, which had an impact on sales and

market share, but not specifically in terms of

capacity development.

Capacity to Enforce Legislation

As discussed, enforcement of EE-related legis-

lation is not a top priority for the government

in the present context, nor was it at the time

Impact Assessment

39

of PELP, and therefore this also remains a

capacity issue at all levels. Most stakeholders

indicated that EE-related legislation and poli-

cies “are requirements without enforcement.”

At this time, even the “legal framework for

RE development is not coherent,”14 and this

is also true of EE-related matters.

As noted by some stakeholders, the incom-

plete enabling environment is rendered more

complicated by unclear and overlapping

jurisdictions and authorities in the area of EE

for public buildings or schools (for example,

elementary schools are under municipal ju-

risdiction, while voivodships have authority

over high schools).

Capacity to Pool Resources

Generally, this capacity does exist in Poland

today. For example, energy consulting firms

and agencies such as FEWE develop projects

with final consumers to promote DSM and

EE, pooling human, financial, ecological, and

technological resources together for EE and

DSM-related activities. Some of this capacity,

stakeholders noted, was either developed

or refined through their experiences with

PELP. In addition, utilities can often pool the

required human, financial, and technological

capacity; stakeholders cited PSE as one of

several examples of this.

Hypermarkets, specialized electrical shops,

and other retail stores have indeed managed

to create a great market window for efficient

lighting and thus in fact act as pooling win-

dows for financial resources for EE. CFLs are

certainly well promoted and available ev-

erywhere to consumers, as the Study Team’s

retail survey confirmed. (For more findings

from the retail survey, see section 4.2.3.) The

survey demonstrated that, on average, 25—33

percent of lighting product shelf space in all

stores was dedicated to CFLs and 75 percent

of all promotions or sales were for CFLs rather

than regular bulbs.

However, those consumer resources pooled

do not go back in any great amount to pro-

mote further energy efficiency or into EE

measures as such, whether at the national,

voivodship, or municipal level.

The Role of ESCOs

The number and types of energy service

companies certainly increased during and

after PELP, although direct causality cannot

be established. In general, however, the

ESCO market has yet to develop in Poland.

It is facing subsidized competition from

national environment funds, county-level

funds, and so on, as described earlier. The

funds themselves invest, at subsidized rates,

in EE and DSM actions, thus not giving the

required space for ESCOs to flourish. In addi-

tion, other actors seem to be playing the role

of ESCOs at times, including manufacturers

like Philips and ES Systems, so the context

for ESCOs in Poland is not favorable overall

at present. As one stakeholder noted, “the

legal structure in Poland is not tailored for

third-party financing.” Some consider ESCOs

40

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

as being discriminated against in this context,

and one stakeholder noted, “theoretically, the

market is 75 percent open, but practically it

is 1 percent open.”

At the close of PELP, some funds from the

budget (primarily accumulated interest)

remained unspent. In response to a request

from the IFC, FEWE prepared a business plan

for Business Energy Ecology Sp.z o.o. (BEE), a

new lighting ESCO, in which FEWE would be

a minority shareholder. BEE principals were

all involved with the implementation of PELP,

and they drew on the knowledge, experience,

and contacts they gained through PELP to

further EE initiatives, with a particular em-

phasis on street lighting. However, it seems

the initiatives of the ESCO never quite got

off the ground. Funds that were earmarked

for furthering its initiatives are soon to be

returned to the IFC.

Conclusions

The capacity for information management

and awareness raising exists at certain lev-

els within the country, and some of it was

furthered through PELP. For example, AGH,

PNEC, and FEWE all have the capacity to un-

dertake awareness raising initiatives through-

out the country and are currently doing so.

However, groups such as FEWE and PNEC

rely on project-related funding and have little

core funding available to ensure continuity

and a strong logical framework for their ac-

tions on EE. Even if this capacity exists at the

national level in government, and appar-

ently already existed at the time of PELP, the

government does not appear to be currently

committed to EE and DSM in any forceful

manner. Municipalities are constrained in

terms of human and financial capacity for

awareness raising and must therefore draw on

institutions with that capacity, such as FEWE

and consulting firms.

As consumers have few awareness activities

focused on them, with little publicity on EE

products, further use of existing networks that

raise consumer awareness and ensure some

form of quality control on products by dis-

seminating relevant information is desirable.

As many stakeholders have made clear, PELP

focused primarily on shifting the market for

CFLs, not necessarily on raising EE awareness

or developing the capacity to do so for the

long term. As noted, this was a contextually

appropriate choice for the project’s emphasis,

but it impeded some degree of contributions

being made to long-term raised awareness

and related capacities for EE.

There may generally be capacity for policy

making, planning, and decision making for

EE and DSM, as there are national laws and

policies that address EE issues, but due to vari-

ous contextual factors such laws are not well

enforced or implemented. At the municipal

level, the capacity for planning and decision

making on EE is almost nonexistent and there-

fore needs to be addressed. At national and

municipal levels, the government’s capacity

to implement the decisions on EE and DSM

Impact Assessment

41

does not seem to be present, but this capac-

ity exists within other institutions – namely,

AGH, PNEC, FEWE – as well as within

energy consultancies. Municipalities again

draw on capacities that exist in these agencies

and others for the implementation of EE/DSM

initiatives but depend on existing national or

regional funds, which are not always easily ac-

cessed. It is evident that utilities, too, have this

capacity, but are generally not as interested

in pursuing these initiatives given the current

energy market realities in Poland.

PELP has had limited success in bringing

change to that overall situation, although it

did support pilot initiatives in certain munici-

palities that have helped further the imple-

mentation capacity of some of the groups

mentioned (AGH, PNEC, and FEWE, in

particular) in partnership with those munici-

palities. The need to broaden the experience

and reach of that capacity remains significant,

given the EE situation in the country.

The incomplete enabling environment for

pursuing EE in Poland is not conducive to

use of the capacity to enforce legislation,

which does not seem to be present at any

level. If EE is to be pursued into the future,

this capacity will need to be built up. The

capacity to pool human, technological, and

ecological resources is found in institutions

like FEWE and certain energy consultancies.

What is missing, however, is the capacity to

pool financial resources required to move EE

and DSM ahead in Poland. Utilities, which

potentially have this capacity, are not par-

ticularly interested in pursuing such EE/DSM

initiatives in the present context.

ECSOs, which normally would be key

players in pooling resources by marketing,

implementing, and structuring financing for

EE measures at various levels (and were en-

visioned as such by PELP), are not important

players in Poland. The efforts of PELP to build

an ESCO legacy as a key institutional driver

of broader and sustainable market transforma-

tion for efficient lighting in Poland in the long

run have not proved fruitful. This appears to

be due, in particular, to the absence of an

adequate market enabling environment to

allow them to flourish (such as subsidized

competition from other funding sources or a

government focus on EE rather than renew-

able energy).

Lessons Learned

If the national government does not dem-

onstrate interest in a particular issue, it

might be a good strategy to turn to other

national actors, including the private sector,

to implement a project and leverage initial

commercial interest to lead the way toward

the achievement of global environmental

objectives. However, to achieve total and

sustainable market transformation, capaci-

ties must be built not only in private sector

actors, such as manufacturers and ESCOs,

but also within central government, mu-

nicipalities, and nongovernmental actors in

that sector.

42

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

In a country where the macroeconomic and so-

cial context is not conducive to EE, it is difficult

to get full government commitment to steer

the process and ensure an adequate enabling

environment to allow some potential players

in EE, such as ESCOs, to flourish, and others,

such as utilities, to get actively involved.

In a country undergoing a rapid decentraliza-

tion process, building the capacity of local-

level governance institutions to plan, imple-

ment, and enforce legislation as well as to

pool adequate human and financial resources

to make this possible is paramount.

To help build this capacity at the local or

end user level and to help encourage the

central government to give adequate prior-

ity to EE, special attention must be paid to

building and sustaining the capacity to raise

awareness on EE/DSM issues and benefits at

various levels.

The promotion of benefits should not be

limited to short-term financial gains from

electricity savings but should also include

global environmental benefits and their links

to consumption habits. Although the promo-

tion of the former could in many cases be

the best way to attract consumers’ attention

and might represent a contextually feasible

means (as was the case for PELP), it should

be accompanied or at least followed by the

promotion of global environmental benefits

that can contribute to bringing a more sustain-

able, longer-term attitudinal change toward

energy-efficient practices among end users

and institutional users.

In the context of EE initiatives, it can be

beneficial to work more with end users and

final consumers, who have the most to gain

from electricity savings. PELP demonstrated

that utilities are unlikely to be strong or long-

lasting partners in a market where there is

already a surplus of energy or where profits

might be affected, and it can be beneficial

to work with municipalities. Practically, the

greatest beneficiaries of EE are end users (such

as municipalities owning buildings or local

populations), and it is important therefore

to involve them more directly in awareness

raising as well as in the development and

implementation of EE initiatives.

For sustained impact in EE or DSM, appropri-

ate champions must be identified and inte-

grated into the initiatives from various levels

of government, the private sector, munici-

palities, consumer representatives, ENGOs,

and manufacturers, as well as other relevant

stakeholders, where appropriate.

4.2.3 Impacts on the Market and

on Beneficiaries

A central aspect of the evaluation was as-

sessing the project’s long-term impacts on

beneficiaries of the project and on the mar-

ket more broadly. Assessment of these two

aspects is significantly interwoven in data

collection and analysis and is presented as

such below.

Impact Assessment

43

In terms of assessing impacts on beneficia-

ries, the following project beneficiaries were

included:

• Consumers (indicators included level of

savings from CFLs, price paid for CFLs,

availability of CFLs, satisfaction with CFLs,

level of awareness of CFLs)

• CFL and luminaires manufacturers (indica-

tors included number of old and new CFL

manufacturers, CFL sales, penetration rate,

saturation rate, sustainability of the CFL

market)

• Electric utilities (indicators included use

of DSM as a least-cost option)

• Municipalities (indicators included level

of awareness of EE and CFLs, level of use

of DSM, CFL/EE lighting penetration at the

municipal level)

By assessing the impacts on the various ben-

eficiaries, the analysis in this section sheds

light on the project’s impacts on the market

for CFLs and EE lighting, with the following

indicators also examined:

• Level of awareness for CFLs (at various

levels and for various beneficiaries)

• Degree to which consumers are commit-

ted to continuing CFL use

• Situation of manufacturers involved with

the project

• Number/type/quality of new manufactur-

ers and their CFL products

• Manufacturer’s assessments of the sector’s

past, present, and future evolution

• Change in CFL retail prices

• Change in availability of CFLs in retail

outlets, including:

• percent of shelf space in major retailers

for EE lighting

• number/type/brands of CFLs available

• degree/type of promotion of CFLs

• overall level of availability and stock

• Level/change in penetration rate (number

of households with at least one CFL in-

stalled)

• Level of market saturation

• Level/change in annual sales of CFLs

• Level/change in luminaires sales

• Comparison of sales and the market in Po-

land with other countries in the region

As the analysis will make clear, the current

CFL market has been significantly trans-

formed since the end of PELP, and there

have been some clear impacts on various

beneficiaries.

Consumers

As primary beneficiaries of PELP for the long

term, it is important to assess impacts on con-

sumers, who have witnessed a transformed

market. By assessing the various impacts on

EE lighting on consumers, long-term impacts

on the market are brought out.

Level of awareness

In Poland, it seems that awareness of CFLs

and EE lighting is widespread throughout

the country. To substantiate this perception

and collect specific data, a representative

44

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

consumer focus group was surveyed on is-

sues relevant to both the CFL market and

beneficiaries of the market. It found that 64

percent of the group had already bought CFL

bulbs, and 73 percent had friends or family

who had CFLs. Although a direct comparison

must be made with caution, given the sample

size, it is indicative to note that in 1998 the

final evaluation of PELP found that 33 percent

of consumers had CFLs in their homes while

67 percent knew someone with CFLs. These

data thus suggest an increase in CFL penetra-

tion, which is further substantiated by other

data presented in this section.

It is interesting to note that currently,

among the 36 percent of respondents who

never bought a CFL, exactly half of them had

friends or relatives who did use CFLs. Thus,

82 percent of the focus group in 2004 had

either bought or knew someone who had

bought CFLs, which gives a general idea of

level of awareness of CFLs today.15 This was

further confirmed in an informal way by the

Study Team: in all possible instances, the

team asked regular consumers about their

awareness and use of CFLs. Their responses

confirmed findings from this focus group

(although the findings cannot be considered

representative).

A smaller amount of formal awareness raising

about CFLs and EE was taking place gener-

ally for consumers in Poland in 2004. There

seem to be few, if any, media advertisements

or publicity for this product, as stakeholders

confirmed. Indeed, the issue of energy effi-

ciency is rarely brought up in media or other

forms of public awareness raising, according

to all stakeholders, and most agreed that such

information is more difficult to come by in

comparison to the time of PELP. This repre-

sents a shift away from the situation at the end

of PELP, when media and advertisements had

become multiple and sophisticated and built

on previous awareness campaigns.

Level of consumer satisfaction

In 2004, as Figure 4.2 demonstrates, a sig-

nificant majority of respondents (72 percent)

were satisfied with their CFL purchases, as

they claimed that CFL bulbs met their ex-

pectations. A minority (14 percent) declared

that CFLs greatly exceeded their expectations,

while that same percentage of respondents

were disappointed by the product. In 1998,

at the end of PELP, 62 percent of consumers

were “very satisfied” with CFLs. These data

confirm that consumers are generally satisfied

with CFLs in 2004, but also that there has

Figure 4.2Level of Satisfaction with

CFLs Purchased

Much better14%

Worse14%

As expected72%

Impact Assessment

45

been a significant decrease in the percent-

age of people who are “more than satisfied”

with this product. The inference is that there

has been an overall decrease in the level of

satisfaction with CFLs.

The major advantage of CFLs, according to

people who purchase them, is overwhelm-

ingly the price in the long term. Nearly two-

thirds of the consumers (63 percent)16 in 2004

were buying CFLs because of the economic

benefits they believed they would reap (here,

according to consumers, this includes both

lower electricity bills and cost savings in the

long run). From interviews, it appears that it is

also mainly the purchase price (versus regular

bulbs, in view of the life span of the bulb) that

plays in the decision to purchase CFL bulbs.

As Figure 4.3 shows, 36 percent of consumers

were also choosing CFLs for “energy savings,”

while 27 percent chose them because they

have a longer bulb life span.

Figure 4.3 illustrates that, as at the end of

PELP, a small minority (9 percent) of consum-

ers in 2004 purchased the CFLs for reasons

linked to the environment. It is worth noting,

for comparative purposes, that a consumer

energy awareness and attitude study con-

ducted in the United States in March 2003

revealed that American consumers were most

likely to say that they would pay more for

an EE product (an Energy Star product, for

example) if it saved them money. Some 55

percent of respondents said they would do

this, compared with 46 percent who would

pay more if it saved them time. Also, 36 per-

cent of respondents said that they would pay

Figure 4.3

36%

63%

27%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Economicallyefficient

Lastlonger

Better for theenvironment

Advantages of CFLs - 2004

78%

62%

42%

10%

Advantages of CFLs - 1998

Saveenergy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

80%

70%

Economicallyefficient

Lastlonger

Better for theenvironment

Saveenergy

46

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

more for an Energy Star product if it helped

preserve the environment.17 Another study,

however, showed that only 5—8 percent of

a group of CFL consumers surveyed in Cali-

fornia bought this product for environmental

reasons,18 which is similar to findings from

the impact assessment of PELP.

Figure 4.3 representing data from the final

evaluation of PELP in 1998 shows that a simi-

lar percentage of consumers purchased CFLs

because of the economic benefits. It is inter-

esting to note the differences between 1998

and 2004 in terms of the share of consumers

choosing CFLs for energy savings, as less than

half of the percentage of consumers in 2004

bought CFLs for this reason. Similarly, fewer

consumers are purchasing CFLs because the

bulbs last longer. This may further demonstrate

what the Study Team found in Poland in 2004

– that lower-end and poorer-quality products

have flooded the market in recent years and

are not lasting as long as CFLs used to and

may not be saving as much energy as CFLs of

the past. The standards for CFLs have indeed

dropped since the end of PELP; for example,

whereas CFLs then usually had a 15,000-hour

life, the new standard lifespan today for CFLs

on the market is 8,000 hours, a significant

drop in quality.

The major disadvantages of purchasing CFLs,

according to consumers, or the reasons they

do not purchase this product include “start up

delays,” referring to the time it takes for the

lights to come on after the switch has been

flipped (36 percent of consumers), the price

of CFLs versus regular bulbs (36 percent),

and the inability to fit their light fixtures (14

percent). This last response confirms data

collected through interviews, where people

argued that sometimes the CFLs did not fit

their particular light fixture. In addition, some

felt that CFLs did not quite come in the right

color, shape, or type and did not fit in their

home. A comparison with the disadvantages

listed by consumers at the end of PELP is also

provided in Figure 4.4. The percentage of

consumers finding CFLs too expensive has

remained rather constant, while “start up

delays” has increased significantly.

In reference to the dissatisfaction of consum-

ers, when the focus group in 2004 was asked

why they needed to replace CFLs, the most

frequently given response was a normal

burnout of the bulb (34 percent). However,

nearly half of the respondents answered that

either poor lighting (22 percent) or early

burnout (22 percent) was the main reason to

replace the bulbs. In addition, while 11 per-

cent claimed that CFLs often short-circuited,

11 percent of respondents were not at all

satisfied with the CFLs for reasons not stated.

In sum, the data suggest that two-thirds of

consumers are replacing CFLs because of a

negative experience with them, further lend-

ing credence to the claim that the quality of

CFLs has dropped in the market.

It was suggested by various stakeholders

interviewed (and the data collected also sug-

Impact Assessment

47

gest this) that satisfaction might have gone

down in recent years due to the quality of the

bulbs that have flooded the market, which

have grown rapidly in number since PELP.

According to manufacturers, it is impossible

to know just how many Asian imports are in

the Polish CFL market at any given time, as

no one is tracking this. The impact assess-

ment clearly confirmed that the influx of

Asian imports to the Polish CFL market has

allowed for many lower-quality CFLs to flood

the market at lower prices, which certainly

seems to be having an impact on consumers

in various ways.

Nevertheless, even if consumers in the focus

group in 2004 noted some disadvantages

to CFLs, all of them stated that when they

had to replace their CFL bulb with a new

one, they did not consider buying a regular

bulb. (See Figure 4.5.) This demonstrates a

sustained impact from PELP, as 97 percent

of consumers intended to replace CFLs

with CFLs.

Level of consumer savings

According to the focus group, the general

quantity of wattage saved by purchasing CFLs

instead of regular bulbs is approximately 83

watts. This average takes into account the

wattage average of the regular bulbs (ap-

proximately 97 watts) that the focus group

used to purchase minus the wattage average

of all CFL bulbs (approximately 14 watts)

purchased. This is certainly not representative

or scientifically qualified data. However, all

consumers in the focus group who had CFLs

stated that they had saved money by purchas-

Figure 4.4

45% 45%

18%19%

48%

22%

7%

18%

Tooexpensive

Other Inability tofit fixture

Disadvantages of CFLs - 2004 Disadvantages of CFLs - 1 9 9 8

Start updelays

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Tooexpensive

Other Inability tofit fixture

Start updelays

48

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

ing this product, due to its EE features. This

confirms what was demonstrated by FEWE in

its study in the selected municipality as part

of PELP and what was recorded as well in all

project reports and evaluations.

As indicated, financial savings is one of the

main reasons that consumers buy CFLs.

When asked, on average, how much money

they save through CFL use, some consumers

stated that they saved approximately 5 PLN

per month. Focus group consumers and most

other stakeholders noted, however, that it

is very difficult to calculate savings related

to CFLs or lighting accurately, as electric-

ity prices are constantly on the rise. And

with privatization and changes to electricity

distribution in Poland, electricity bills have

become increasingly complex and difficult

to interpret, as well as difficult to link to a

particular consumption period.

Availability of CFLs

Based on the findings of the Study Team’s

retail survey, the consumer focus group,

a review of manufacturer’s products, and

interviews with various stakeholders, it is

evident that consumers in 2004 enjoyed a

wider selection of CFL manufacturers, watt-

ages, types, styles, and availability overall

than in 1998. CFLs are literally everywhere,

from the hypermarkets to the smallest light-

ing-related shops. The increase in CFL makes

and models has resulted in a much wider

selection in terms of both price and qual-

ity and a vastly transformed and expanded

market overall.

Figure 4.5What will your next light bulb be?

0

50

100

CFL of equalwattage

CFL of greaterwattage

CFL of lesserwattage

Impact Assessment

49

The retail survey demonstrated that consum-

ers can now choose between about 12 manu-

facturers, some of whom make as many as 40

types of CFLs (and as few as 8 types), ranging

in size, quality (lasting between 3,000 and

15,000 hours, offering or not offering war-

ranties), wattage (from 6 to 25 watts) and

price (from 4 to 40 PLN) – all available in

many stores and often all in the same store.

As mentioned earlier, CFLs occupy 25—33

percent of shelf space for lighting overall and

sometimes as much as 50 percent in smaller

stores. In addition, it is primarily CFLs that

are either on sale or offered in some sort of

promotion (such as the chance to win a home

stereo system or an additional rebate).

Although CFLs are everywhere, this cannot

be directly attributed only to the project, nor

was PELP alone responsible for the expanded

CFL market found in Poland today. It was cer-

tainly the kickstart for this particular market

and for domestic demand for the product, but

technological and socioeconomic changes

were occurring at the same time, in a larger

context of rapid market economy transition.

These factors cannot be ignored.

Price of CFLs

The expansion of the CFL market was ac-

companied by an expanded range of prices

linked to a greater range of wattages, types,

and quality. The Study Team’s retail survey

found that CFL prices ranged widely, from as

low as 4 PLN for lower wattage or sometimes

short-life/lower-quality imports to as high as

42 PLN for high-quality, long-lasting CFLs. In

1998, the final evaluation of PELP noted that

the average price fell from 38 PLN to 25 PLN

during the life of the project. It is interesting to

note that the price of CFLs today is almost the

same as it was during PELP (for comparable

makes, such as Philips) even in the context of

growing inflation and a booming economy.

The focus group of consumers stated that,

on average, they pay between 15 and 30

PLN per CFL bulb, close to the average price

during PELP.

All data therefore suggest that the price de-

crease of CFLs has been sustained since the

end of the project. Furthermore, with an aver-

age rate of inflation in Poland of 34 percent

from 1997 to 2003, this actually translates

into a 25 percent decrease in the price of the

average CFL, in real terms, since the project’s

end. Most stakeholders agreed that the prices

of CFLs would not have reduced that much,

and that fast, without PELP.

In terms of a standard retail comparison with

regular bulbs, 11- or 12-watt high-quality

CFLs are usually equivalent to 60-watt regular

bulbs (standard wattage comparison), and a

consumer will pay 15 PLN for the CFL (as

high as 30 PLN in more expensive shops)

compared with only 1 PLN for the regular

bulb (3 PLN in more expensive shops).

However, the high-quality CFLs last 8,000

hours (8 years) on average, and most come

with warranties, while the regular bulbs last

only 1,000 hours (1 year), and never come

50

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

with any warranty. These prices collected

from the retail survey confirmed the prices

the focus group paid for CFLs on the current

market (15—30 PLN). As for the higher-priced

CFLs, these represent high-end CFLs, which

last for 15,000 hours (15 years) and are of a

higher wattage (25 watts).

Manufacturers

Among the primary beneficiaries of PELP,

manufacturers have certainly felt the impacts

of PELP since the end of the project. In a

variety of ways, the drastic transformation of

the CFL market has perhaps affected Polish

CFL and luminaire manufacturers more than

any other stakeholder.

Change in number or type of manufactur-

ers and long-term impacts on them

During PELP, the biggest players in the CFL

market were Philips (a Dutch company) and

Osram (a German company). To some extent,

General Electric was also involved. Through

PELP, smaller players entered (or penetrated

further into) the CFL market, including Kania,

Maya, and Vox Detlam, and other manu-

facturers or importers and sellers of CFLs

also entered the game, taking advantage of

a rapidly expanding market. One of PELP’s

impacts was that it convinced manufactur-

ers and retailers (as well as wholesalers)

that CFLs could be sold and promoted to a

wide audience. However, it may have also

contributed to opening up the market overall

through expanded demand (and related sup-

ply opportunities), contributing to the wave

of imports flooding the emerging market.

With the cheaper products from abroad, local

manufacturers faced serious challenges and

competition.

Today, the CFL market is still clearly domi-

nated by Philips and Osram. The retail survey

conducted by the team demonstrated this,

and it was confirmed by all stakeholders and

data collected. More accurately, the market

is dominated by Philips and to a significant

degree, Pila, which may be considered a sub-

sidiary of Philips and is a small CFL company

producing in Poland. It is interesting to note

that for many average consumers, Philips and

CFLs go hand in hand. PELP must be regarded

as having at least contributed to solidifying

Philips’ CFL market share and dominance.

This is confirmed further by the focus group,

where respondents clearly had a preference

for Philips (60 percent) and Osram (40 per-

cent), as no one checked or proposed any

other CFL brand listed in the survey. Other

stakeholders also identified only these two

brands during interviews.

Yet there are other players on the market

today, including Neolux, Kanlux (Kania),

Helios, Paulman, Polux, Massive, Brilux,

Maxlux, and Dulux, and potentially others

not seen by the Study Team. It is interesting

to note that almost all these manufacturers

sell both EE and non-EE light bulbs, so they

are essentially competing against them-

selves as well as against others. These new

manufacturers are in fact mostly importers

Impact Assessment

51

of cheaper products from Asia. With some

exceptions, they are offering more of the

low-end brands, with fewer hours per bulb,

and a significant percentage come without

warranties.

There are thus more distributors of CFLs

around, but most of them are selling imported

bulbs. Local production in Poland was rather

marginal in 2004. Financing is mainly for the

distribution of imported CFLs, as manufac-

turers maintain that local production is too

expensive in this increasingly competitive

market. Some manufacturers argued that

PELP did the “hard work” of spreading

awareness and opening up the market, and

now Asian low-cost producers are taking ad-

vantage of the situation and “having it easy,”

as the market is already developed and has

been transformed.

A high-ranking director of one manufacturer/

distributor, Kania, mentioned that its sales

rose by 50 percent during PELP. However,

Kania also pointed out that since then sales

have decreased by 60—70 percent, due, in his

view, to competition in the market and the

influx of imports. At one point Kania, which

sold GE products, was the second largest

player in the CFL market in Poland. Now,

selling under the name Kanlux, Kania sells

Asian imports only and is “on the way out of

the market completely.” Another example

is Maya, a manufacturer also involved with

PELP. Maya no longer exists, as it could not

compete. It is worth noting that “Philips” is

mentioned as often as “Asian imports” as the

source of unbeatable competition in the CFL

market in Poland today. The impacts of PELP

on CFL manufacturers in Poland has therefore

been significant, in both positive and negative

ways, whether directly or indirectly.

In the luminaire market, ES Systems was

around before PELP, since 1990, with a man-

date to enhance and increase the use of EE

lighting systems in Poland. ES System argues

that its business expanded mostly because of

PELP, and today they are the market leader in

luminaire distribution. A representative of ES

Systems noted that “PELP promoted CFLs and

made EE popular, and our business in CFL

luminaires benefited then, and continues to

this day.” ES Systems sales are at $40 million

per year, and they have at least 30 percent of

the market share. They work with schools to

change to EE lighting, fit new buildings and

malls in the country with EE luminaries, and

have replaced much of the street lighting in

Krakow, acting in effect as an ESCO.

Today, with the introduction of lower-end

brands, specialized fittings, shapes, and a

wide array of wattages, prices, and quality,

there has clearly been market segmentation,

which is in itself an indication that the CFL

market overall has matured. However, there

are potentially negative aspects of this market

transformation in terms of poor quality and

consumer dissatisfaction, which may create

a backlash for manufacturers in the longer

term, as discussed further later.

52

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

Level of CFL sales

The market has definitely developed in a

sustainable manner, as evidenced by the

level of sales. Hypermarkets are taking the

low-end market mostly with a wide array of

styles and brands, while some manufacturers

channel their high-end products through spe-

cialized electrical shops. Other superstores,

in particular “homecenters,” have the entire

spectrum under one roof. As a result, sales

are higher than expected by the project and

its stakeholders.

In 1996, CFL sales were at approximately

2.9 million, and they were at 3.5 million in

late 1997. Manufacturers projected that the

growth in sales would be sustained, increas-

ing at least 14 percent a year. Current CFL

sales data are increasingly difficult to obtain

and track, a point made clear by all stake-

holders who had knowledge on this issue. In

addition, many stakeholders were reluctant

to share accurate market-related data. Cur-

rently, however, according to Philips (the

only source for this data in the country that

the Study Team could find), CFL sales in the

market are at 8—9 million a year. This number

is most probably underestimated because of

untracked Asian imports. Even these con-

servative estimates show the CFL market in

now four times larger than at the end of the

project, demonstrating that the final evalua-

tion projections were more or less accurate.

In terms of other countries, it was a noted

success of PELP that during the project CFL

sales were higher in Poland than in most

western countries, including the United

States. According to Philips, even today,

CFL sales in Poland are still quite compa-

rable to U.S. sales, especially if differences

in population are accounted for. Stakehold-

ers familiar with the region maintain that

Poland’s CFL sales and penetration rates

are still higher than neighboring countries

like the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and

some Baltic states, all of which have higher

income levels. This can be explained by the

fact that CFLs were being sold and promot-

ed widely in Poland earlier (through PELP)

than other countries, with the exception

perhaps of Hungary, where GE’s presence

was and is very strong. In addition, Poland

is a bigger market, with a population of 40

million, than some of its neighbors. Poland

can currently be considered comparable

not only to Hungary and the Czech Re-

public in terms of the CFL market, but also

to West European countries, according to

manufacturers.

Market penetration

The level of market penetration of CFLs

during PELP was 19 percent, which rose to

33 percent one year after subsidies ended.

Currently, Philips estimates that penetration

is at least 50 percent of households. This is

supported by other sources. Two-thirds of the

representative focus group had bought CFLs,

and nearly three-fourths knew someone who

used CFLs. The penetration rate in Poland has

increased further as prices have continued

Impact Assessment

53

to fall (and, to some extent, as incomes have

continued to rise).

Philips estimates that most households have

60—70 percent of their lights as CFLs, if they

have CFLs in their home or apartment. Other

data tended toward estimates that were some-

what lower. Findings from the focus group

and other consumers indicate that most

people use CFLs primarily in the main areas

where lights are used the most, such as the

kitchen and bathroom.

PELP made a contribution to this market pen-

etration primarily by giving people a chance

to try CFLs through manufacturer subsidies,

which made them more attractive financially,

according to stakeholders. Not surprisingly,

penetration is higher in urban areas or cities

and much lower in the countryside. People

more involved with agricultural activity in

the rural areas generally have much lower

incomes, according to stakeholders. The

issues associated with EE lighting may not

be top priorities in that context. However,

stakeholders argued that if PELP had gone

further to raise awareness and promote CFLs

in the rural areas, market penetration might

be higher today, so the potential remains.

Market saturation

The challenge for PELP was catalyzing a shift

in the market for EE lighting. This was indeed

achieved, and perhaps beyond expecta-

tions. It sped up the market transformation

and also market saturation by at least three

years. During project implementation, the

potential size of the Polish market for CFLs

was estimated by the International Institute

for Energy Conservation to be 21—26 million

units, with annual sales reaching saturation

at 4 million units.19 As noted earlier in this

chapter, manufacturers predicted that market

saturation at an average of 2.43 CFLs per

household, implying that saturation would

occur in 2001 with PELP and in 2005 without

it. With an estimated 9 million of CFLs sold

in 2004, it is believed that market saturation

has been reached.

Sustainability of the CFL market

Although the current state of affairs for CFL

manufacturers or distributors looks positive,

when asked about the future or sustainabil-

ity of the market in Poland, manufacturers

painted a much less optimistic picture. PELP

indeed contributed to a transformation of the

market, but it also opened the CFL market

up to competition from other sources. At

the time of PELP, there seemed to be some

degree of quality standards in place and fol-

lowed. Now, according to all stakeholders

and data collected, manufacturers seem to

follow no rules and there seem to be no stan-

dards. As mentioned previously, the market

is completely open and the Asian imports

have flooded in. This has helped to lower

prices further, perhaps, but it also introduced

new lower-end types of CFLs. During PELP,

academics tested imports versus high-qual-

ity bulbs like Philips and found that savings

were reduced by 50 percent with the “other

54

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

EE bulbs.” Since PELP, these tests have been

repeated with similar results, according to

various stakeholders. This will, in manufactur-

ers’ view, serve to further erode the consumer

base for the product, as they decide that the

EE light is not that energy-efficient after all.

This is in addition to basic quality problems

related to low-end products and already noted

by consumers and other stakeholders.

People buying these CFLs that have no war-

ranties and that do not follow any enforced

standards are discovering that the bulbs are

burning out early and sometimes not working

at all. This may also contribute to a negative

impact on the market in the long term, as

people are “losing their confidence in EE

lighting and CFLs,” in some stakeholders’

view – confidence, stakeholders added, that

PELP worked hard to create, and that some

manufacturers have worked hard to sustain.

This will, in manufacturers’ view, push

people away from EE lighting in the future, es-

pecially as CFLs remain more expensive than

regular lighting. Manufacturers like Philips

realistically predict a significant decrease in

sales in the coming decade as opposed to the

last one. Philips will not reduce prices further

at the expense of quality, but it also has no

direct control over erosion of consumer con-

fidence in the market. Therefore, the level of

market saturation or penetration is no longer

sustainable and is being eroded. The Federa-

tion of Consumers substantiated this claim,

stating that consumers have confidence only

in certain brands such as Philips and that

lower-end products will certainly erode the

consumer base for CFLs more generally.

Consumers in the focus group who bought

CFLs from the major manufacturers (like Phil-

ips and Osram) seemed to have fewer com-

plaints about quality, although even these

manufacturers are not immune to consumer

complaints. For the consumer, who may not

be aware of the CFL’s quality, the imported

items might seem competitive and very at-

tractive for the first purchase. However, these

lamps turn out to be of poor quality, and this

is confirmed by many returns.20 Manufactur-

ers and academic stakeholders argue that this

is slowly undoing the positive impact of PELP

on the CFL market.

The overall quality of CFLs has decreased

over time. At present, the Polish government

is not focused on any standards for CFLs on

the market. Beyond contextual factors noted

earlier concerning government involvement

in EE-related initiatives and markets, this re-

luctance to enforce standards is also related

to Poland’s present economic transition and

ideological transformation. In the post-com-

munist context, stakeholders suggested that

the government does not want to seem as

though there are “special rules” for EE prod-

ucts, and it does not want to seem like it is

meddling with the market in any way on this

or any other market-related issue.

In the end, however, the market for CFL could

become unsustainable in the long run unless

Impact Assessment

55

measures are taken before consumer trust and

confidence are further eroded. It should be

noted that country-specific standards in the

EU context is not likely. “Green” labeling is

one EU mechanism that could potentially be

deployed, where Ministries of Environment

usually help set the standards for this designa-

tion. They could probably incorporate light

bulb quality and performance into their label-

ing criteria to help distinguish market products

with higher standards that produce greater

environmental benefits. Green labeling com-

bined with active marketing by the higher-

quality brands receiving this designation (with

the sellers bearing the cost of this work) is a

potential win-win combination to influence

consumer awareness and behavior.

Utilities

PELP intended to demonstrate to electric

utility companies such as PSE that DSM

approaches could be pursued, rather than

capital investments, to improve distribution

networks. Most utilities face distribution

losses. PSE, for example, faces transmission

and distribution losses in its system of about

12 percent. Even in the face of such losses,

for most utilities DSM is not attractive as it

is perceived as being solely about reducing

energy consumption, which translates into

fewer sales. In addition, as there is general

overcapacity in the electricity sector, reasons

for pursuing EE and DSM seem weaker to

most utility companies. They do not necessar-

ily have EE or the environment as a top prior-

ity. In most cases, they need to be convinced

of the benefits. Some have been shown the

economic benefits and savings in terms of

investments, but many more need to be made

aware. It is also difficult to convince them to

invest in an uncertain economic climate.

As the IFC/GEF Poland Efficient Lighting

Project: Demand-Side Management Pilot

– Final Report states, two conferences were

held during the PELP Project to show its

successes and findings in terms of distribu-

tion systems advantages. They were very

successful, attended by many utilities and

other stakeholders from Poland as well as

other countries. They demonstrated the

cost-effectiveness side of DSM approaches

for electric utilities. As the final evaluation

and other project documents argue clearly,

peak demand for electricity was reduced up

to 15 percent in target areas and municipali-

ties through DSM approaches with utilities.

The PELP approach helped to take pressure

off the system during peak times, and it also

presented benefits for consumers in the form

of electricity savings.

In addition, one of the big achievements of

PELP noted by academics, the private sec-

tor, and utilities alike was that it convinced

utilities and electricity distributors that CFLs

would not have a negative impact on the

grid (or cause surges) due to CFLs comprising

nonlinear loads. The “load” argument was a

central aspect of early opposition to PELP and

the use of CFLs and EE lighting by utilities

and electric companies. This was disproved

56

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

through the project, which opened the door

to utility collaboration.

Today there are electricity utilities, such as

PSE, who did and continue to use DSM ap-

proaches rather than investing in upgrades.

PSE provides electricity to 130 municipali-

ties in Poland and works currently with five

distribution company networks, covering

60,000 square kilometers. According to a

high-ranking representative of this utility,

PSE has EE contracts with 50 municipalities.

The company acts as an ESCO and has con-

tracts with municipalities to supply EE street

lighting for a fixed number of years. The PSE

representative noted that it was PELP that

made his company aware of the benefits of

such DSM approaches.

It is worth mentioning that the DSM approach

has caught on and worked well with some

heating utility companies in Poland, as there

is more competition in that sector, and some

companies collaborate due to fear of losing

clients to gas companies. This demonstrates

some (indirect) impacts of PELP beyond the

EE and lighting sector exclusively. In addi-

tion, some stakeholders (energy consultants

or agencies like FEWE) mentioned that some

utility companies have approached them to

do EE or DSM activities, as they are interested

in peak shaving.

Municipalities

As noted earlier, certain municipalities are

aware of the benefits of EE lighting in public

buildings, schools, and so on and have de-

manded such a shift. For institutional final

users, such as municipalities, as the PSE

experience has shown, EE street lighting

can bring municipalities’ costs down by 40

percent, after the three-year payback period

for the installation of the new bulbs. This

represents substantial electricity cost savings.

Many municipalities became aware of these

benefits through PELP activities. However,

both ES Systems and Philips, as well as

energy consultants and FEWE, reiterated

that the situation in municipalities is very

difficult in terms of the enabling environ-

ment and enforcement. (This is discussed

at length in section 4.2.2 on institutional

development.)

Municipalities that were involved with PELP,

such as Elk, seem to have experienced an

even higher and continued penetration of

CFLs at both retailer and consumer levels.

Residents of Elk can still remember the

project and the PELP logo, and they recall

how much CFLs were promoted at that time.

However, this awareness and CFL use has

spread well beyond municipalities targeted

by PELP, which offers further evidence of

other PELP impacts.

• A post-project initiative, which replicated

PELP and grew out of it, was executed by

PNEC and addressed awareness raising for

CFLs and EE lighting in the municipality

of Miedzna. The results of this post-PELP

activity can be considered as impacts of

Impact Assessment

57

PELP (see discussion on replicability in

section 4.3).

• As stated earlier, PSE currently has EE street

lighting contracts with 50 municipalities.

As PSE notes tht it adopted more EE ac-

tivities and DSM approaches due to PELP,

benefits to municipalities who switch to EE

lighting may also be considered as indirect

impacts of PELP.

• Energy consultants and agencies like FEWE

also noted that they are currently working

with at least some municipalities on EE

lighting in public buildings and schools.

In addition, ES Systems worked with

Krackow to modernize and retrofit many

buildings and introduce EE lighting.

• The retail study of the Study Team further

confirms some degree of spread of aware-

ness and CFL use, as CFLs were found

in many buildings visited in Warsaw,

Krackow, and Katowice. The survey shows

generally that the penetration of CFLs

into the consumer market for lighting is

comprehensive and extensive in many

municipalities.

Conclusions

For consumers, there have been many di-

rect and indirect benefits from PELP in the

long term. As the market for CFLs has been

transformed, the availability and selection

of CFLs has increased dramatically. Not all

aspects are attributable to PELP directly, but

contributions were made. The CFL market

today enjoys a wide range of types, wattages,

and prices to choose from. The price of CFLs

has remained at similar levels since the end

of PELP (which means a lower price in real

terms). Consumers are still enjoying energy

savings by using CFLs, even though it is dif-

ficult to calculate such savings in the current

Polish context of rising electricity prices

and a rapidly evolving electricity sector.

However, cheaper and lower-quality CFLs,

imported from Asia, are less energy-efficient,

and many consumers are attracted to their

lower price.

Generally, consumers are aware of the ben-

efits of CFLs and are purchasing them, but

there is a need to increase awareness raising

because there is very little publicity and in-

formation available to average consumers on

CFLs and EE lighting. And consumers need to

be further informed about the differences be-

tween high-quality and low-quality CFLs. In

addition, changing to more environmentally

sustainable and energy-efficient behavior

and consumption requires a foundation of

knowledge of the benefits of energy-efficient

practices, both in terms of savings and the

global environment, as such a transformation

cannot be sustained through price reduction

alone. Although consumers are still generally

satisfied with CFLs, indications are that their

level of satisfaction has decreased since PELP,

as lower-quality bulbs on the market burn out

early or do not work properly.

Some manufacturers have benefited greatly

from this market transformation, while oth-

ers have experienced significant challenges.

58

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

Sales overall are very high, as is the penetra-

tion rate, and the market has experienced

some degree of saturation. Philips and Osram

continue to dominate the CFL market, as

they did at the time of the project. Philips

has certainly benefited directly from PELP

(as did ES Systems in the luminaire market),

while Osram and other manufacturers have

benefited indirectly through a transformed

market and increased sales overall. However,

the market opened up by PELP contributed to

a flood of cheaper Asian imports entering the

Polish market. Local manufacturers have not

been able to compete with this or with the

big established players. There are more “lo-

cal players” in the market now, but they are

mostly distributors of imported goods, and

they do not see their business as sustainable.

In addition, the sustainability of the CFL mar-

ket is in question, as consumer confidence

is eroding due to lower-quality products

and the absence of adequate mechanisms to

control quality.

Some electric utilities have benefited from

PELP over time and have adopted DSM and

EE to avoid large investments. However,

this is usually only for peak shaving and is

certainly not widespread. Through PELP and

initiatives that grew from it, municipalities

continue to reap the benefits of EE, as the

awareness and use of CFLs has spread to

many municipalities beyond those targeted.

The impacts of PELP on the CFL market

are evident in many ways in Poland today.

However, there is a need to continue efforts

to raise awareness and knowledge at various

levels and to put in place mechanisms that

would guarantee CFL quality and energy ef-

ficiency in order to ensure a sustained market

transformation for EE lighting in Poland well

into the future.

Lessons Learned

• The development of an appropriate en-

abling environment for energy efficiency

actions (supportive energy and ownership

regulations, laws, policies, and strategies;

supportive business and legal environ-

ment; and so on) is important. Enforce-

ment is a key issue here, referring to:

• The need for enforcement of EE-related

laws, policies, and plans at various levels,

with an emphasis on ensuring that govern-

ments are taking steps to follow through

on laws and policies aimed at promoting

EE and environmental sustainability

• The need for mechanisms to ensure the

quality of the products on the market, as

market transformation for efficient lighting,

to be sustainable, must be accompanied

by the development of institutions with

the capacity to develop mechanisms to

help sustain demand in the long term

through support of consumer confidence

and through the assurance of a minimum

level of quality (and energy savings)

• Direct incentives to manufacturers can

be an efficient way to bring about mar-

ket transformation in favor of a given EE

product.

Impact Assessment

59

• In a rapidly changing and opened econ-

omy, adequate attention must be paid to

the capacity to compete with imported

products and the effects this might have,

in the long run, on local manufacturing

capacity and the local market for the prod-

uct, in view of the global environmental

objectives sought. This may play a role in

the selection criteria for the manufacturers

to receive incentives.

4.2.4 Mainstreaming Global

Environmental Concerns

In an attempt to assess the degree to which

global environmental concerns have been

mainstreamed into Poland’s national and

sectoral policies, the Study Team met with

key ministerial representatives and lobby

groups and conducted a thorough and up-

dated review of key national and sectoral

policies, laws, or plans. The following indica-

tors were used:

• General level of awareness on global en-

vironmental benefits of EE measures, such

as the use of efficient lighting in ministry

offices

• Number, type, and quality of laws, poli-

cies, frameworks, and plans developed or

strengthened that address efficient lighting

or other EE measures

• Evidence of attribution to the project

It is clear from existing legislation, such as

the 1997 Energy Act, that the government

is aware of EE and global environmental

issues, and to various degrees these have

been mainstreamed into national and sec-

toral laws and policies. However, although

PELP was widely known, well received, and

served to raise awareness of EE, the project

came too late to have a direct impact on

those laws. Nevertheless, PELP did have

a significant impact on the education sec-

tor, as discussed later in this section. The

mainstreaming of global environmental

concerns into other sectors is also discussed

briefly.

National Environment Laws, Policies,

and Plans

In order to meet EU standards concerning

emissions of sulfur oxide (SOx), nitrogen

oxide (NOx), and particulates, the Polish gov-

ernment in 1998 enacted new environmental

regulations for emissions from boilers, requir-

ing installation of sulfur control technology

(such as scrubbers or fluidized bed boilers).

The government’s facility-specific compli-

ance determinations option awards tariff

reductions to power plants that are certified

as environmentally EU-compliant earlier than

other plants, a policy aimed at encouraging

early adoption of EU requirements. Accord-

ing to the Ministry of Environment, since

the late 1990s there have also been similar

laws against polluting companies, who must

pay according to their level of pollution or

emission.

For the most part, however, global environ-

mental issues were already mainstreamed

60

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

into national plans and policies at the time

PELP took place. The level of mainstreaming,

in terms of precise actions to be undertaken

in years to come on EE and DSM, has not

improved since PELP.

National Energy Laws, Policies, and Plans

In the Guidelines for Energy Policy of Po-

land Until 2020, approved by the Council

of Ministers in 2000, it is mentioned that the

Minister of Economy shall promote technolo-

gies that are particularly significant for energy

policy, including highly efficient lighting

systems (sources of light, frames, lighting

management systems).21

The most significant piece of energy-related

legislation is the 1997 Energy Act, which,

although primarily concerned with supply-

side issues, contained a number of Articles

relevant to energy efficiency.22 Article 45 ex-

plicitly created the framework for DSM activi-

ties by stating that energy tariffs “may include

costs of co-financing by energy enterprises of

projects and services the purpose of which is

to reduce energy and fuel consumption by

customers.” The Energy Act also provides the

basis for EE labeling of equipment. Article 52

requires that manufacturers and importers of

equipment specify EE in technical documenta-

tion and that EE be displayed on a label. The

detailed requirements regarding EE labeling

will be determined through future secondary

legislation, but given Poland’s accession to

the EU, labeling laws will certainly be based

closely on European Directive 92/75/EEC

and its subsidiaries, which also cover lighting

sources, lamps, and fixtures. Although the ap-

proval of the new Energy Act in April 1997

coincided with the implementation phase of

the PELP DSM Pilot,23 direct causal linkages

could not be found through this assessment.

In addition, as noted earlier, the govern-

ment’s renewable energy strategy clearly

includes energy supply issues and the need

to plan for EE at the municipal level. Each

municipality and voivodship is supposed to

draft and implement an energy efficiency plan

and a sustainable development plan. The

energy sector laws, policies, and plans are

also clear about municipalities’ responsibility

for having someone oversee EE issues for the

municipality. However, these EE-related ob-

jectives are more a function of EU accession

than any contribution from PELP. In addition,

both the plans and the positions are rarely

implemented, and government enforcement

of EE-related legislation and policies is not

strong in the current context.

It is worth noting that ES Systems mentioned

that foreign companies operating in Poland

have environmental and energy “rules to

follow” (in reference to unspecified laws

and policies) and must adhere to regulations

for EE lighting. The luminaire manufacturer

noted that a good proportion of its business

comes from these companies who are look-

ing for EE lighting systems for their build-

ings, in adherence to the Polish regulatory

framework.

Impact Assessment

61

Economic and Industrial Development

Laws, Policies, and Plans

In the economic and industrial development

sector as well, the wheels of mainstream-

ing of environmental or EE-related issues

into economic policies, laws, and plans

seemed to already be in motion at the time

of PELP. As discussed, there are various

policies, laws, and plans related to renew-

able energy.

Despite the contextual realities of the produc-

tion and use of coal in Poland mentioned ear-

lier, the government has taken some notable

recent steps in relation to this key source of

energy in Poland. The coal sector has been

forced into a heavy restructuring process to

stem overproduction, and the government

plans to shed thousands of mining jobs. In

early July 2004, the government announced

plans to grant its coal industry 9.5 billion PLN

(2 billion euros) worth of aid between 2004

and 2010 and said it would press on with

a restructuring plan. The Deputy Economy

Minister said the aid was compatible with the

rules of the EU. However, he told a news con-

ference that an upturn in the sector’s fortunes

after years of being heavily in debt would not

lead Poland to abandon the restructuring plan

the government agreed to as part of its prepara-

tions to join the EU. The price of a ton of coal

increased on average by 25 percent over the

first four months of 2004 compared with the

same period in 2003. “This breath of optimism

does not allow us to give up the restructuring

of the mining industry. On the contrary we

have to continue, without hesitation, reducing

production capacities,” he said.

Education Laws, Policies, and Plans

There is not much data from the Ministry of

Education on this aspect. However, this is

one sector and area in which the contribu-

tions from PELP are direct and measurable;

perhaps not in laws and policies per se, but

certainly in the courses and curricula at vari-

ous levels of schooling in the country. This

was discussed briefly in section 4.2.2. but is

expanded upon here.

At the university level, stakeholders sug-

gested that PELP had a significant and lasting

impact in terms of mainstreaming EE into the

curriculum. Courses at AGH in Krackow, for

example, now include lectures and weeks of

study on:

• Adjustable speed drives: students are

presented with different aspects of energy

savings and methods of efficient energy

supply

• Power quality and efficiency utilization of

electrical energy, with PELP as a central

case study

• Power engineering, during which efficient

lighting systems are discussed at length

According to these stakeholders – teachers

who were very much involved with PELP –

these courses emerged during and after PELP,

and the contributions from the project to the

education system are direct. These stakehold-

62

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

ers have been teaching students many of the

lessons and experiences they had with PELP.

They further noted that for a Masters in energy

management at the university, there is always

at least one lecture solely dedicated to the

experience and lessons of PELP. Currently,

60—70 percent of Masters theses in AGH

University are about energy efficiency issues.

Overall, they noted, this kind of curriculum

and topic is very popular now at AGH and

some other universities and colleges.

In addition, the Polish Ecological Club stated

that there are environmental awareness activi-

ties and courses in high schools as well and,

in some exceptional cases, in elementary

schools. This was confirmed by some uni-

versity professors, as they noted that often

teachers have two jobs, one in the university

and the other at secondary schools.

Conclusions

Although some stakeholders believe that PELP

may have indirectly contributed to bringing

some EE-related issues to the surface and

to the attention of the central government,

they also recall that while the government

was officially supportive of EE and PELP, it

was not involved in the project and no active

relationship or mechanism was in place to

ensure feedback of PELP experience at the

policy level. Poland’s current accession to

the EU is the main impetus for the laws and

policies in Poland, which are more focused

on RE rather than EE. EE has therefore not

been mainstreamed into Poland’s laws and

policies to the extent that could be expected.

Where it has, enforcement of legislation has

been lacking and requires attention. In addi-

tion, PELP did not have an observable impact

on legislation development and in most cases

occurred too late to have one.

Nevertheless, PELP did have a significant

impact on the development of EE-related

curricula at various levels of schooling in

the country, although this is not reflected in

education laws or policies per se. PELP cata-

lyzed an educational and intellectual focus

on EE-related issues in Poland, and its impacts

can be observed in the wide array of courses

and curricula dealing with this topic and the

greatly expanded number of graduates and

experts who have emerged.

4.2.5 Impacts on Local Environment

and Health

This section aims to discuss briefly some of

the health and environment-related impacts

associated with the achievements of PELP in

the long term. Attributing such impacts to

PELP specifically is a challenge, one that is

compounded by an almost complete lack of

data on this in Poland. However, the impact

assessment brought to light a key health

impact of PELP’s sustained CFL and EE light-

ing market transformation, as well as more

general benefits that the project may have

contributed to.

Generally speaking, the extensive use of

fossil fuels like coal means increased emis-

Impact Assessment

63

sions of CO2, which contributes to climate

change and indirectly affects human health

negatively. Although climate change can

have serious consequences for human health

overall, high levels of exposure to the by-

products of coal combustion, particularly

NOx, SOx, and mercury, can also have

significant consequences on the health of

people living near high-emitting power

plants. Local pollutants directly affect the

health, life expectancy, and quality of life of

anyone who is exposed to them at moderate

or high levels,24 particularly children and

elderly people.

Another related health matter in this context

is acid rain, which is caused by smoke and

gases that are given off by factories and cars

that run on fossil fuels. When these fuels are

burned to produce energy, the sulfur that is

present in the fuel combines with oxygen

and becomes SOx; some of the nitrogen in

the air becomes NOx. These pollutants go

into the atmosphere and become acid. SOx

and NOx are produced especially when coal

is burned for fuel, for example, to produce

electricity, and the more electricity that

people use, the more coal is burned. Many

living and nonliving systems are harmed or

damaged as a result of acid rain. Humans

can become seriously ill and can even die

from the effects. One major health effect of

acid rain for humans is respiratory problems.

Asthma, along with dry coughs, headaches,

and throat irritations, can be caused by acid

rain. The rain can be absorbed by plants

(through soil or direct contact) and animals

(from things they eat or directly contact).

When people eat these plants or animals,

the toxins they take in can affect them. Brain

damage, kidney problems, and Alzheimer’s

disease have been linked to people eating

“toxic” animals or plants.

Evaluation of the impact of PELP on the local

environment and people’s health requires

an even more sophisticated investigation

than evaluation of reduced GHG emissions,

which could not be comprehensively car-

ried out in the context of this impact assess-

ment. Nevertheless, it is clear that energy

efficiency projects that reduce the quantity

of electricity produced by coal-fired power

plants will have a positive impact on the lo-

cal population’s health. Since the project has

contributed to reducing the need to expand

coal power plants, which would have pro-

duced more NOx and SOx, there are some

impacts from PELP in this area. In the long

term, however, the isolated impact of PELP

might be minimal.

Yet the impact assessment shed light on an

important health issue with regards to public

lighting in schools. Some ENGOs such as

PNEC, academics such as AGH, and agencies

like FEWE maintained during PELP that EE

lighting initiatives in schools were crucial for

the health of children, because of the harm-

ful long-term effects of non-EE lighting on

children’s eyesight. Research done by FEWE

during the last years shows that the light in

64

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

most Polish schools is in very bad condition,

according to FEWE. In many schools the light

intensity is much lower than required, and

the inadequate luminaries and accompanying

discomfort lead to what is known as “school

short sightedness.”25 Preserved or improved

eyesight for children in schools due to the

installation of brighter lamps with the same

energy consumption (or less) has been one

impact of PELP, as well as of more recent

initiatives that have built on PELP. Although

there are no statistical data to support the

claim to improved eyesight, stakeholders

are certain that PELP has helped to contrib-

ute, in the long term, to such improvements

in children who are or were in the schools

involved in EE lighting initiatives during or

after PELP.

Thus when dealing with lighting in schools,

in cases where lighting was insufficient to

start with, the argument about children’s

eyesight and its relation to proper lighting

can be a convincing factor in bringing social

support for EE lighting initiatives.

4.3 Replicability

A significant number of projects developed

in Poland and elsewhere have been inspired

by the PELP experience at local, national, and

regional levels, some of which are discussed

in this section. Replication of GEF-supported

projects in other countries beyond the origi-

nal project locations – a key goal of the long-

term strategies of GEF – is also occurring and

will be mentioned here as well.

In Poland, the Study Team’s findings confirm

that many initiatives and projects have repli-

cated the PELP experience and learned from

the project. For example, PNEC developed

a project based on the methods and experi-

ences of PELP, with a particular focus on DSM

in the context of EE. The idea was to copy

the “target promotion of CFLs,” in which a

significant saturation of households with CFLs

would be ultimately achieved, but without

external subsidies. DSM approaches such

as the use of coupons to enhance awareness

and demand were used. The project was

tailored as a low-profile attempt to establish

a revolving fund located at PNEC. The initial

input was provided from GEF as a post-PELP

activity.

Two municipalities, Miedzna and Nowy Sacz,

took part in the initiative, led by PNEC but

with the cooperation of corresponding mu-

nicipal governments. The small project ended

with success: a revolving fund of $3,200 has

been established and may serve as an example

of the feasibility of such an approach, which

relies on municipal governments’ involve-

ment and support. In addition, the mayor

of Miedzna notes that in 2000 the initiative

covered 10,000 out of 15,000 households in

the municipality. It also sponsored meetings

at schools on CFL use, demonstrations were

held displaying CFL benefits, and brochures

were distributed to the public. The mayor

mentioned that even two years after the proj-

ect, in 2002, residents would approach him

about the issue and EE products.

Impact Assessment

65

PNEC suggests that it has replicated PELP

approaches and lessons in other projects in

Poland as well, such as the School Building

Integrated Energy Development Operation.

This focuses on EE lighting in 15 schools and

10 municipalities in Poland, and stakehold-

ers noted that their experiences with PELP

formed the basis for the overall approach

once again. PNEC also stated that it is cur-

rently involved in many other climate change

and energy efficiency awareness activities,

including the promotion of CFLs, in schools

and municipalities, all of which draw on PELP

lessons and experiences to some degree.

This is confirmed by Philips, which provided

the CFLs for many post-PELP initiatives and

which agrees that PELP was a success that

was replicated and led to many spinoffs, both

direct and indirect.

Replication of approach also spread beyond

the efficient lighting sector. In 2004 the Pol-

ish Efficient Motor Project (PEMP) project

was launched. This project was based on the

application of the experiences and lessons

of PELP but focused on electrical motors.

Despite obvious differences, PEMP had a

number of common features with PELP:

• It explored the possibility of deferring

investments of the electricity supply grid

in a cost-effective manner.

• It promised economic benefits for the

electricity user.

• It was based on the existence in Poland

of production capacity of efficient motors

(which are presently exported to western

countries) with limited domestic demand

(which was the situation of CFLs manufac-

tured in Poland before PELP).

• It recognized the need for a market push by

a temporary reduction of price to increase

demand.

• It recognized the need for an intensive ed-

ucational and informational campaign.

The main lesson retained by PEMP is that a

market push provided by a temporary sub-

sidy at the “factory gate” to manufacturers is

an economically effective mechanism that

substantially reduces the retail prices due to

reduction of wholesaler and retailer markups

and relevant taxes. FEWE notes that it took

the approach from PELP but adjusted it to fit

the particular product market context.

According to university and academic stake-

holders involved with the project, PELP has

been replicated many times on a small scale

in Poland. Some projects and initiatives

adopted a similar approach in the universi-

ties, catalyzing CFL bulb replacement for

entire buildings and dormitories. In one

initiative at AGH University in Krackow,

over 1,000 bulbs were replaced in a single

small project.

Replication at the international level can be

seen in the follow-up GEF project known as

the Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI). During

implementation of PELP, numerous regional

demonstrations of successes and lessons

66

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

learned were held with other countries. The

IFC received requests from numerous coun-

tries wishing to host a similar CFL promotion

program; these requests prompted IFC to

design ELI, a $15-million regional initiative.

Although ELI has been implemented in seven

countries (Argentina, the Czech Republic,

Hungary, Latvia, Peru, the Philippines, and

South Africa), the IFC received expressions

of interest in replicating Poland’s experience

from many other countries, including Brazil,

Bulgaria, Egypt, India, Lithuania, and Russia.

Organizations from Zimbabwe, Botswana,

and Mozambique also approached ELI team

members to get advice on how to run similar

lighting programs locally. The implementa-

tion team has floated ideas about exporting

ELI to other countries in the region. Although

the particular design of the program in each

country is not a blueprint copy of PELP,

because ELI adapts EE initiatives to suit local

contexts, it is evident that the general ap-

proaches used in PELP are being replicated

through ELI in other countries.

PNEC noted that it had shared many times its

findings, experiences, and lessons from the

PELP project experience with other countries

as well. PNEC continues to build PELP les-

sons and experiences into its involvement

in EE initiatives at the regional level in co-

operation with partners in countries such as

Romania and Hungary.

Overwhelmingly, it is clear that the successes

of PELP were due to a variety of coinciding

and contextual factors that are no longer

present in Poland and are not necessarily

replicable in other contexts or at the present

time. Some of these factors included rapid

industrial transformation, a rapidly expand-

ing consumer and market base, quickly

expanding consumerism (including stores,

products, consumption), rising incomes,

rapid accession to the EU, and the fact that

the environment was more of a priority at

that time due to smog over cities and the

discovery of the harmful effects of coal, which

people were becoming more aware of. PELP

also drew on very specific cultural/national

factors that are less evident and that may not

be replicable elsewhere, such as the Polish

tradition of poster art. The project used the

traditional method of transferring messages

and found a “space” for publicity between

government propaganda and advertising

of the day, both of which were familiar to

people at the time.

The context has changed dramatically in Po-

land since PELP, and such a project could not

even be replicated within the country today.

In addition to the fact that the factors just

described are no long present, there is now

a much higher availability of CFLs, as well as

a variety, including much cheaper products.

The whole raison d’être for PELP was bring-

ing down the price of CFLs, which used to

be considered more of a “luxury item.” It is

no longer considered as such, with prices as

low as 4 PLN, and CFLs are found in almost

every major store. Thus a replication of the

Impact Assessment

67

PELP approach would be misplaced in the

Poland of today.

In terms of replication in other countries, it is

quite difficult to compare the PELP case with

other countries or other cases, because the

context of PELP in Poland at that time was

so unique. Certain “methods” that coincided

with that time may not be applicable in other

countries. For example, the use of coupons as

an approach to widening awareness of con-

sumption of a product, may not be effective in

countries that are currently not going through

similar economic transitions or at different

income levels. Indeed, they would certainly

not be as effective as they were in Poland in

2004. For comparable countries, such as the

Ukraine, however, such approaches might

still be quite relevant. As ELI demonstrates,

different approaches must be used in different

contexts, as appropriate.

In addition, it is worth noting that many of

the problems that have emerged in Poland

in relation to the CFL market and EE light-

ing are similar to challenges being faced

in other countries. The lack of mechanisms

to reduce the influx or control the quality

of cheap products from Asia is a challenge

for countries like Slovakia, Latvia, and even

Germany. Indeed, this is a global challenge,

evident in all parts of the world and in a wide

variety of markets. Any “replication” activity

must therefore try to mitgate such impending

risks in the context of open, often unregulated

markets for such products.

Today, there is further opportunity for rep-

lication of PELP with the availability of EU

structural funds for such initiatives. In addi-

tion, EU laws and requirements might make

utilities, for example, as well as others – in-

cluding the government – more interested

in DSM and EE. Furthermore, impending

competition from other countries in energy

supply might also make EE/DSM and the

objectives and approaches of PELP generally

more interesting.

The challenge for replication of PELP lies in

the unique context within which the project

took place and the need to adapt the ap-

proach to implement similar initiatives in

dissimilar contexts. Although lessons from

and approaches used in PELP are relevant, the

unique set of contextual factors of a country

in rapid economic (and other) transition is not

present everywhere. However, the long-term

challenges in the EE lighting market in Poland

are relevant to all countries.

69

The impact assessment of PELP has generated

lessons on two levels: for energy efficiency

sector projects (long-term impacts) and for

project management and implementation of

such projects.

5.1 Lessons for Energy Efficiency

Sector Projects

An overarching lesson from this impact as-

sessment of PELP is that there are key chal-

lenges that must be considered and addressed

in market transformation toward energy ef-

ficiency in developing economies. First, it is

important to develop an appropriate enabling

environment for energy efficiency actions

(that is, supportive energy and ownership

regulations, laws, policies, and strategies and

a supportive business and legal environment).

In a country where the macroeconomic and

social context is not conducive to EE, it is

difficult to get full government commitment

to steer the process and ensure the environ-

ment that allows other potential players in EE,

such as ESCOs, to flourish, and others, such

as utilities, to get actively involved. Enforce-

ment is a key issue here, in terms of:

• The need for enforcement of EE-related

laws, policies, and plans at various levels,

with an emphasis on ensuring that govern-

ments are taking steps to follow through

on laws and policies aimed at promoting

EE and environmental sustainability

• The need for a mechanism to ensure the

quality of the products on the market

– market transformation for efficient light-

ing, for example, to be sustainable must

be accompanied by the development of

institutions with the capacity to devise a

mechanism that will help sustain demand in

the long term through support of consumer

confidence and the assurance of a minimum

level of quality (and energy savings).

In a country undergoing a rapid decentral-

ization process, it is paramount to build the

capacity of local-level governance institutions

5 LESSONS LEARNED

70

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

to plan, implement, and enforce legislation as

well as to pool adequate human and financial

resources to make this possible. To help build

this capacity at the local/end user level and

lead central government to give adequate pri-

ority to EE, special attention must be paid to

building and sustaining the capacity to raise

awareness on EE/DSM issues and benefits at

various levels.

The promotion of benefits should not be

limited to discussion of short-term financial

gains from electricity savings but should also

include global environmental benefits and

their links to consumption habits. Although

promoting short-term financial gains could

in many cases be the best option to attract

consumers’ attention and induce a market

shift (as was the case for PELP), it should be

accompanied by the promotion of global

environmental benefits that can contribute

to bringing a more sustainable, longer-term

attitudinal change toward energy-efficient

practices among end users and institutions.

Sustaining raised awareness to have a long-

term impact on changing attitudes and

behaviors requires that adequate emphasis

be placed on information dissemination and

education in an ongoing manner and at all

levels.

If the national government does not dem-

onstrate interest in a particular issue, it

might be a good strategy to turn to other

national actors, including the private sector,

to implement a project and leverage initial

commercial interest to lead the way toward

the achievement of global environmental

objectives. However, to achieve total and

sustainable market transformation, capacities

must be built not only in private sector actors,

such as manufacturers and ESCOs, but also in

central government, municipalities, and non-

governmental actors active in the sector.

In a rapidly changing and opened economy,

adequate attention must also be paid to the

capacity to compete with imported products

and the effects this might have, in the longer

run, on local manufacturing capacity and the

local market for the product, in view of the

global environmental objectives sought. This

may play a role in the selection criteria for the

manufacturers to receive incentives.

In addition, direct incentives to manufactur-

ers can be an efficient way to bring about

market transformation in favor of a given EE

product. For sustained impact in EE or DSM,

appropriate champions must be identified

and integrated into the initiatives from vari-

ous levels of government, the private sector,

municipalities, consumer representatives,

ENGOs, and manufacturers.

In the context of EE initiatives, it can be ben-

eficial to work more with end users and final

consumers who have the most to gain from

electricity savings. PELP demonstrated that

utilities are unlikely to be a strong partner in

a market where there is already a surplus of

Lessons Learned

71

energy and where profits might be affected,

and the project chose instead to work with

municipalities. Practically, the greatest ben-

eficiaries of EE are end users (end consumers

such as local people or municipalities owning

buildings), and they must be involved more

directly in the awareness raising as well as

in the development and implementation of

EE initiatives.

When dealing with lighting in schools, in

those cases where lighting was insufficient

to start with, the argument about health

– namely, the relation of children’s eyesight

to proper lighting – can be a convincing fac-

tor in bringing public support for EE lighting

initiatives.

5.2 Lessons in Project Management and

Implementation of EE Initiatives

Assessing PELP in the long term helped to

identify some lessons for improving on the ex-

periences of the project. For instance, when

promoting a new product such as CFLs (and

especially in economies in transition), having

an “objective” promoter of the product to the

public, someone who is seen as independent,

is an effective promotional tool.

Contextually appropriate project executors

and partners are key factors in the short-term

and the long-term success of EE initiatives.

Many successes of PELP in the short term,

and its larger impacts in the longer term, are

due to the involvement of particular persons

and their level of interest, enthusiasm, and

commitment. This is especially significant in

the absence of a conducive enabling environ-

ment. For example, in this case, the IFC was

a well-known and respected body – an im-

portant factor in the project’s success – and

was able to bring government and the private

sector on board. The IFC was the credible

“big business” patron for the project.

Furthermore, the involvement of appropriate

local resources in the design of the project

helps ensure that the intricacies of the lo-

cal context are taken into account and that

initiatives are tailored to beneficiaries in

question. For EE initiatives, this refers to the

need to plan and work with end users and

consumers in an iterative and collaborative

manner. In addition, to ensure the project is

allowing for lessons to be learned throughout

implementation and for (often changing) con-

textual environments to be considered in an

ongoing manner, it is important to make the

most appropriate use of available resources

and to involve them in the project. For ex-

ample, several members of the PELP’s advi-

sory committee expressed dissatisfaction and

disappointment with project implementation

and long-term impacts as the project did not

make sufficient use of the resources on the

committee for serving its purpose.

Project implementation approaches must be

contextually appropriate (such as incentive

measures or methods of reaching target popu-

lations) in cultural, temporal, ideological,

and political terms. For example, the DSM

72

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

approach used in PELP coincided, at the time,

with some post-communist ideas for demand-

side approaches (the use of coupons).

Consider planning for additional follow-up

activities. Follow-up can allow for certain

emerging constraints to be identified and

potentially addressed. In the case of PELP,

follow-up could have included continued

awareness raising, especially beyond the

geographic scope of the project. In ad-

dition, follow-up could have focused on

targeting public buildings, schools (where

electricity for light and heat account for

75 percent of costs, and almost all school

lighting systems are old), or the enabling

environment for ESCOs and other players

to take their full measure. In this sense,

follow-up can help immediately build on

successes overall.

73

These recommendations aim to address a

sustained market transformation for energy

efficiency and are presented in order to have

a positive effect on future EE-related initiatives

of the World Bank-GEF. Although some are

specific only to the Polish context, many can

be understood as applicable to a variety of

contexts.

• Further use of existing networks in Poland

that raise consumer awareness should be

built on as part of a larger effort in aware-

ness raising on EE at local and municipal

levels.

• Although the primary and initial focus of

awareness raising efforts toward end users

might have to be on economic benefits

(as was the case for PELP), some level of

awareness raising efforts should also be

on the links between personal habits and

the global environment to help ensure

the sustainability of behavioral change.

A phased strategy in terms of consumer

awareness is therefore recommended,

focusing perhaps initially on economic

aspects to induce a shift, but then focusing

on global environmental aspects in order

to address sustainability.

• Municipalities in Poland should be made

more aware of available funds for EE ini-

tiatives, and related capacities should be

built to facilitate access to those funds.

• The enabling environment, including the

legal structure and enforcement, must

be considered as part of a larger effort

to address capacity development for EE-

related policy making, implementation,

and enforcement. When this sort of ac-

tivity is outside the scope of the project

for financial or strategic reasons, project

management should recommend follow-

up activities or projects to be undertaken

by the World Bank-GEF, other donor agen-

cies, or national institutions concerned

with the issue.

• Future EE initiatives should look at the

development of mechanisms to ensure

CFL quality and heightened EE savings

6 RECOMMENDATIONS

74

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

in the long run and at consumers’ better

satisfaction with CFLs, thus contributing

to sustained market transformation for EE

lighting.

• Awareness raising initiatives in Poland

must move beyond urban areas to rural

ones and must begin to target municipali-

ties and areas where CFLs and EE generally

have yet to emerge.

75

APPENDIX A

Project Organizational Chart

Global Environment FacilityProject Finance

International Finance CorporationProject Finance & Management

IFC Technical & EnvironmentDepartment

Environment Division

Netherlands Energy Company, B. V.(NETENCO)Utility Partner

PELP AdvisoryCommitte

Monitoring & EvaluationConsultant

Polish TechnicalTesting Facility

Polish ProjectMarket Research

Backgroundcalculations

(FEWE)

Monitoring & EvaluationComponent

Pilot DSMComponent

LuminaireDevelopment &

Subsidy Component

IIEC & LightingDesign Consultants

LuminaireManufacturers

Pilot DSMConsultant

Battelle/PNL, andPNEC

Polish Cities andRegional Electric

Distribution

Chelmno

Elk

Zywiec

Detlam Polish AdvertisingAgency Studio P

Public EducationComponent

CFL SubsidyComponent

CFL Manufacturers

GE Polska

Maya

Philips Lighting Poland

Vox

Electra

ES-System

Philips LightingFarel Mazury

GE Polska

Netherlands EnergyEfficient Lighting, B. V.

(NECEL)Polish Foundation for

Energy Efficiency (FEWE)

IFC Warsaw

77

Name of Stakeholder Organization Role in Project

Andrzej Jarosz PELP project manager

Russel Sturm International Finance Corporation Consultant

Mark Ledbetter Battelle PNL Involved in DSM component

Chris Granda Vermont Energy Investment Project manager/consultant Corporation

Longina Lewandowska-Borowka Federation of Consumers

Professor Dr. Maciej Sadowski Institute of Environmental Protection PELP Advisory Committee

Ewaryst Hille SPEC Involved with project

Roman Janiczek Polish Power Grid Company – PSE Involved with DSM component

Prof. Krzysztof Zmijewski Procesy Inwestcyjne PELP Advisory Committee, former President of PSE, President of the Polish National Energy Conservation Agency

Prof. Adam Gula AGH University Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency, involved in DSM component

Maria Stankewicz Polish Network Energie-Cites PNEC, involved with project and post-PELP activities

Andrzej Stancyk Kompania Weglowa Mayor of Miedzna, involved in post-PELP activities

Prof. Fijat Polish Ecological Club, AGH Univeristy

APPENDIX B: INTERVIEWEES

78

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

Marek Zabarowski MARR, MAES Member of Polish Ecological Club, PELP Advisory Committee

Prof. Zbigniew Hanzelka AGH University Involved in DSM component

Prof. Maciej Tondos AGH University

Mr. Piotr Switilski ES Systems Luminaire Manufacturer involved with project

Damian Wilczek Kania CFL Manufacturer involved with project

Bogdan Rogala Philips CFL Manufacturer involved with project

Bogdan Slek Philips CFL Manufacturer involved with project

Slawomir Pasierb FEWE FEWE, involved with project

Szymon Liszka FEWE, PEMP Project Manager

Roman Glaz Ministry of Environment

79

Aron, C. J., and R. Woodward. 2000. Final

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Bialowolski, P., and S. Dudek 1th Quarter

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80

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NOTES

1. EIA Country Analysis Brief, Poland: En-

vironmental Issues, June 2003.

2. Birner and Martinot 2002; Aron and

Woodward 2000.

3. Ledbetter et al. 1998.

4. Ibid.

5. Oniszk-Popawska, undated.

6. United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change, undated.

7. See section 3.2.1 of this report and

section 2 of Navigant Consulting Inc.

1999.

8. Granda 1997.

9. It was assumed that the sales growth rate

in 1996 and 1997 without PELP would

be the same as the average sales growth

rate that IAEEL estimated for all of East-

ern Europe, including Poland (about 30

percent) and that the PELP did not have

any impact on the sales growth rate after

the end of the project, which are both

certainly conservative assumptions.

10. Central Statistical Office of Poland, un-

dated.

11. See section 4 of Navigant Consulting Inc.

1999.

12. Oniszk-Popawska and Sokowski, un-

dated.

13. Ibid.

14. Oniszk-Popawska, undated.

15. The representative sample was formed

of people living in urban Warsaw (60

percent) but a significant minority (40

percent) were from surrounding rural

areas. There were a balanced number

of males and females, covering ages

20—70.

16. Consumers in the focus group were al-

lowed to pick more than one choice,

which is why percentages do not add

up to 100 percent cumulatively, as each

percentage represents the share of re-

spondents who picked that advantage.

17. Ulrich Research Services, Inc. 2003.

18. Xenergy Inc. 2002.

19. Granda 1997.

20. Polska 2000.

21. Guidelines for Energy Policy of Poland

84

Post Implementation Impact Assessment: Poland Efficient Lighting Project

Until 2020, Document approved by the

Council of Ministers on February 22,

2000.

22. International Institute for Energy Conser-

vation 1999.

23. Gula, Hanzelka, and Rudzki 1998.

24. World Bank 1998.

25. Popiolek 1997.

World Bank Global Environment Facility

Coordination Team Environment Department

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