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POLI 235A WINTER 2015 PETER H. SMITH SARA BIVIN LATIN AMERICA IN THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD

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WHO IS THIS GUY? Captivated by Latin America (and relationship with United States) as accidental tourist in Mexico Historian by training, political scientist by self- education and ad hoc exposure Faculty positions at Dartmouth College, University of Wisconsin, MIT; at UCSD for > 25 years Extensive research on Argentina and Mexico Research programs on Latin American relations with Europe and East Asia Most relevant publication--Talons of the Eagle: Latin America, the United States, and the World, 4 th edition (Oxford University Press, 2013)

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CONTACT INFO phsmith@ucsd.edu Social Science Building 364 Wednesday 3:30-5:30 Website http://pages.ucsd.edu/~phsmithhttp://pages.ucsd.edu/~phsmith Click on Teaching and POLI 235A/IRGN 490 Sara Bivin sbivin@gmail.com

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Course Design INTRODUCTION Jan 06: Queries and Concepts Jan 13: Sizing Up the Neighborhood (David Mares) LATIN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICIES Jan 20: BrazilAn Emerging Giant? (Riordan Roett) Jan 27: VenezuelaAfter Chvez, What? (Javier Corrales) Feb 03: MexicoJockeying for Position (Rafael Fernndez de Castro, Arturo Sarukhan) Feb 10: CubaWhat Now? (Michael Erisman)

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Course Design (cont) MAJOR POWER CENTERS Feb 17: The European Union Feb 24: What Does China Really Want? (Weiyi Shi) March 03: International OrganizationsUN, WTO, OAS Mar 10: Rogues and Other Contenders/Course Review and Closing Statement

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ASSIGNMENTS AND DATES February 17: Policy Memo #1 March 10: Policy Memo #2 Debates: TBA

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THOUGHTS ON POLICY MEMOS Imagine yourself as consultant to a Latin American government (or corporation or other suitable entity) Identify a policy challenge or problem Evaluate policy alternatives Present a clear recommendation Explain reasons for policy choice, including anticipated consequence (or outcome) 3 single-spaced pages

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PLANS FOR DEBATES Form reading groups and debate teams for Weeks 3- 10 (depending) PHS and SB will suggest a resolution (teams can suggest alternatives) Divide evenly into for and against groups Use assigned reading as basis for your argumentation With speeches and rebuttals, elapsed time a little less than one hour Vote of audience to determine winner?

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GRADING Performance in debate=.20 Literature analysis=.20 Policy memo #1=.30 Policy memo #2=.30

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WHO ARE YOU? Please send e-mails to PHS and SB with following information: Name + nickname (if any) Preferred e-mail Department @ UCSD Background (upbringing, education, etc.) Relevant experience (academic, professional, travels in Latin America, etc.) 1 st and 2 nd preferences for debate groups (see weeks 3-10 below)

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QUERIES AND CONCEPTS

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Key Questions How have Latin American countries responded to shifting balances of global power? With what results? What shifts have had the most significant implications for nations of the region? What has been the range of policy choice? What accounts for convergence and/or divergence? How do major power centers view Latin America? Do they see it as important? Why and to what extent? What is the current state of U.S. relations with Latin America? Is American power on the decline?

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THE CONCEPT OF POWER Robert A. Dahl (1957): A has power over B to the extent that he can get B to do something that B would not otherwise do. Moiss Nam (2013): Power is the ability to direct or prevent the current or future actions of other groups and individuals. It is relational; situational; changeable; expressed in various ways; dependent on incentives and preferences

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Policy Analysis 101 Formation (Gardini and Lambert): 1. Ends and purposes 2. Means and capabilities 3. Agency 4. Process 5. Structure and context Results: Output vs. outcome Cause-and-effect

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Gardini and Lambert Tension between pragmatism and ideology but coexistence makes them complementary, not mutually exclusive A pragmatic foreign policy is a foreign policy based on the principle that the usefulness, workability, and practicality of ideas, policies, and proposals are the criteria of their merit. It stresses the priority of action over doctrine, of experience over fixed principles. An ideological foreign policy emphasizes principles and doctrinaire solutions over adaptability and the practical consequences of assertions and actions.

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Additional Perspectives Grand strategies vs. ad hoc reactions Regimes and rules of the game Geopolitics vs. geoeconomics Hard and soft power

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Structures of Global Power Unipolarity (Krauthammer + Brzezinski) Ending of Cold War Economic and military primacy U.S. as balancer of last resort still peerless Multipolarity (Kissinger) the new order will be more like the European state system of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries than the rigid patterns of the Cold War. It will consist of at least six major powersthe United States, Europe, China, Japan, Russia, and probably Indiaas well as a multiplicity of medium-sized and smaller countries. Goal: acceptable balance of power among competing states; stability and moderation

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Structures (cont.) The World as Flat (Friedman) It is now possible for more people than ever to collaborate and compete in real time with more other people on more different kinds of work from more different corners of the planet and on a more equal footing than at any previous time in the history of the world The World as Pyramid (Gelb) U.S. alone at the pinnacle, with formidable and unique global powers of leadership, but not the power to dominate The Eight: BRIC + UK, Japan, France, Germany Enablers, especially 0il and gas-producing states Regional Players (e.g. Mexico and South Africa) Responsibles (N ~ 50, such as Chile) Bottom Dwellers or Problem States (N~75)

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Oops! Caveats! Power in Decay (Moiss Nam) power no longer buys as much as it did in the past. In the twenty-first century, power is easier to get, harder to useand to lose. The decoupling of power from size is changing the world. Sources of Change More: overwhelming the means of control Mobility: the end of captive audiences Mentality: taking nothing for granted anymore The Global Arena Hegemony and world order Ad hoc alliances, decline of economic diplomacy, soft power Weapons of the small and weak, constraints on major powers

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STRATEGIES FOR SMALLER NATIONS Coalitions of the willing = minilateralism Economic diplomacy + soft power (e.g. Qatar) Vetoes (as in EU, e.g. Poland on climate change) Gongos (government-organized nongovernmental organizations, important with decline of traditional diplomacy)

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Questions Do these (or other) scenarios coexist in differing combinations? In what way? What would be the implications of each scenario for which countries of Latin America? Do they call for long-term strategies? Of what kind?

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WHEW! LOTS TO CONSIDER!

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A CAST OF CHARACTERS

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