poliarquia emta presentation

January 2014

It´s time to get it fixed: Argentina’s attitudes towards the debt

Sergio Berensztein / Director

Prepared for: Graham Fisher & Co.

Social and economic context

Haga clic para cambiar el estilo de título

3

General country situation

Source: Poliarquía Consultores.

Dif (+) (-) Positive Regular Negative

%

“How do you evaluate the general country situation?”

33

28

12

38

54

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

M A O N J F M J A O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


4

Evaluación retrospectiva y prospectiva de la situación del país

Retrospective evaluation Prospective evaluation

General country situation


Dif (+) (-) Better The same Worse Dif (+) (-) Will be better Will remain the same Will be worse

%

%

53

17

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

44

28

50

29

44

17

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


5


It combines current, retrospective and prospective optimism

Optimism prevails

Pessimism prevails

Citizens Optimism Index

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

E F M J A O N D E F E A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


6

Main problems


Crime Crime

Inflation

Economic problems

Inflation

Economic problems

Unemployment

Low wages Unemployment

Corruption

Main personal problem Country's main problem

27%

18%

15%

10%

4%

33%

13%

9%

5%

5%


7 7

Country's main problem evolution (by topics) 3 months average


“Which is in your opinion Argentina's main problem?”

Crime Economic Social Political

%

33

26

7

11

0

10

20

30

40

M A O N J F M J A O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


8 8

Main personal problem evolution (by topics) 3 months average


“Which is the problem that most affects you personally?”

Crime Economic Social Political

%

28

46

1

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

M A O N J F M J A O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D J

06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


9

Problem expectations 2014

“For each of the following problems, I would like you to tell me if you think that they will increase, remain the same, or decrease during 2014 in comparison to 2013.”


66 64 54 54 52

23 22 28 27 31

6 8 9 8 10 5 5 8 10 6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Inflation Economic problems

Piquetes Social unrest Unemployment

Increase The same Decrease N/A


10

Argentina´s prospective economic situation

“How do you think will the economic situation be a year from now?”

Dif (+) (-) Better Worse


% 16

55

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


11

“In Argentina it is likely to have good times and high consumption that finally end up in crisis. In your opinion, how likely is it that in the next 2 or 3 years there will be a new

economic crisis in our country?”

Probability assigned to a potential crisis in the medium term

Very likely Quite likely Not very likely Not at all likely N/A


38% 53% 23 23 26 24 22

30 32 29 31 32 33 30 32 34 33 32 33 32 32 36 32 32 23 28 27 25 30 35

15 17 19 17 20

20 25

23 24 26 19 23 23 22 22 22 20 21 25 24

25 20 25 19 22 24

23 21

43 43 43

39 47

36 35

34 34 30 38 35 34 29 34 31 35 35 30

31 31

34 36 40 36 34 35 30

17 15 11 16

9 12 8 11 10 10 9 9 9 13 8 12 9 10 10 7 9 10 10 11 13 12

9 9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

2011 2012 2013 14


12

Personal economic situation

Current

Retrospective

Prospective



Better The same Worse

Will be better Will remain the same Will be worse

%

%

%

42 40 38 39

46

11 12

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

M A O N E F M J A O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E

06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 .

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 .


13

Indicadores de inflación Inflation indicators


Perception of inflation (last month) Inflationary expectations (next year)

Prices have substantially increased Prices have moderately increased Prices have remained stable / decreased

Average Median

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4


14

Consumer Confidence Index (ICC-UTDT)

14

Source: UTDT / Poliarquía Consultores December 2013.

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


15

Consumption indicators Home appliances


5

10

15

20

25

30

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4

%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% Yes Annual Dif. %

Consumption

Axis

Annual Dif. %

Axis

19 20

26 26 25

20

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

%

Yes


16

Consumption indicators Apparel and footwear

Consumption

Axis

Annual Dif. %

Axis


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25% Yes Annual Dif. %

64 62 64 64 60

56

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

%

Yes


17

37 33 36 28 32 35 35 36 36 33 35

40 41 36 40 42 43 42 41 35 44 39

23 25 28 26 24 21 22 22 27 20 23

1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

M13 A13 M13 J13 J13 A13 S13 O13 N13 D13 J14

13 13 15 13 13 11 15 16 14 15 14

26 23 18 18 23 21 18 21 23 24 21

60 62 63 65 62 64 64 60 61 59 60

1 2 4 4 2 3 3 2 2 3 4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

M13 A13 M13 J13 J13 A13 S13 O13 N13 D13 J14

Employment situation

Employment situation Concern about job loss

Positive Regular Negative NA Very concerned Quite concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned NA



18 18

Household savings

“Does your salary and your whole family income allow you to fully satisfy your needs?”

Not enough Not enough, I have difficulties It´s just enough It´s enough, I can save


%

6 7 8 8 8 7 9 6 8 6 10 11 9

12 10 10 13 8 8 11 13 13 9 9 9 10 12 13 11 12 10 8 11 11 11 9 10 8 10 10 8 11 7 8 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 9

13 9 11 9 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 8 10 11 9 9 10 11

25 25 25 25 29

26 27 30 27

26

29 26 28

30

24 32 29

31 27

27 28 28

26 26 26 24 24 26

26 26

24 27 23 23 22 22 23 27 26 26 25 19 25 21

17 23 20 22 21 21

22 24 25 27

22 24

26 24 22 24 27 23 18 24 24 25

20

25 22 24 23 20 24

52 52 51 53 52

53 50 50 50 56

49 51 50 48

54 45 46 51

53 49 49 47

49 51 53 49 48 51 48

51 49 50 51 51 51 48 47 47 47 50 54 48 51 57

52

48

53 54 54 50

52 49 49 52 49

49 52 52 49 49

50 55 51 49 51

56 48

48 48 52 56 50

16 15 16 13 10 13 14 13 16 11 12 11 12 9 12 12 12 10 12 12 10 12 12 14 14 12 14 13 13 13 15 15 16 15 17 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 20 20 21 18 24

17 16 17 17 12 16 15 13

17 13 15 14 16 14 16 15 14 15 14 15 16 18 18 14 14 14

52

0

20

40

60

80

100

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4

CFK’s administration


20

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s image



%

56

20 21

38

12

46

57

36

-40

-30 -20

-10 0

10 20

30 40

50 60

70

J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


21 21

Presidential approval

“Do you approve or disapprove Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s administration as President?”


Diff (+) (-) Approves Disapproves

%

27

75

53

27

70

24

44

68

-40 -30 -20 -10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80


06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


22

Approval of the government’s economic management

“Do you approve or disapprove the government’s economic management?”


Diff (+) (-) Approves Disapproves

62

35

21 22

67

35

58

70 68

23

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

M A O N J F M J A O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O O D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


23 23

Trust in Government Index (ICG-UTDT)


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


24 24

Trust in Government Index: Components


Government General interest Public spending Corruption Capacity

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


25 25

Trust in Government Index: Capacity


Difference between is solving, needs time and does not know how to solve Is solving Needs time Does not know how to solve

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Perceptions on the President’s health condition


27

Perception of the President’s health condition

“In your opinion, is the President fully recovered from the intervention or is she still recovering?”


24 27 27

52 47 54

24 26 20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14

She is fully recovered She is still recovering N/A


28

The performance of the Government during CFK’s absence

“Do you think that the Government’s performance is better, the same, or worse since Cristina Kirchner is less active in the government?”

Ns nc 7%

Worse 39%

The same 46%

Better 8%



29

Cristina Kirchner’s style of Government

“Some people say that Cristina Kirchner is changing her style of Government in order to face her last two years as President, while others consider that she will go back to her

style once she is fully recovered from the intervention. What do you think?”


30 27 31

59 58 51

11 16 19

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14

N/A She will go back to her style She is changing her style

Argentina’s public attitudes towards the public debt


31

The payment of debts as a general rule

“As a rule, do you believe that the Argentinean debt must be paid in full, must be paid only if no other

priorities or should not be paid?”

It must be paid only i f

no other priorit ies

21%

It should not be paid

4%

N/A1%

It must be paid in ful l

74%

By vote in the 2011 presidential election

By Presidential approval

74 74

22 21

3 4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Approves Disapproves

74 73

21 24

4 3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Voters of CFK Voters of ot her candidates



32

The payment of the debt with those who did not accept the debt exchange

“Some people and institutions who held Argentinean bonds didn't accept the reduction proposed by the government during the debt exchange and are now demanding to be paid the totality of what is owed. What do you believe the

Government should do?”

It should not pay it at al l

22%

N/A10%

It should pay the ful l amount claimed

68%



5966

33 20

8 13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


6472

29 16

7 12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Approves DisapprovesSource: Poliarquía Consultores.


33

Approval of the debt swap re-opening

“In general terms, do you approve or disapprove the re-opening of the debt swap?”

Disapproves the re-

opening17%

N/A13%

Approves the re-opening

70%


7566

17

17

917

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%



7965

10

19

10 16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%




34

85 83

8 166

1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Position regarding Argentina’s debt with international organizations

“What should Cristina Kirchner do regarding the debt Argentina holds with the international organizations? Should

she pay them if the international courts rule against Argentina, should she negotiate, or should she refuse to pay them?”

She should pay them

12%

N/A1%

She should refuse to pay

them5%

She should negot iate

82%

By vote in the 2011 Presidential election


83 81

10 146 4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Approves DisapprovesSource: Poliarquía Consultores.


35

4029

53

57

59

2 5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Debt negotiation impact on CFK’s image

“If Cristina Kirchner decided to negotiate the debts with these international organizations, would the image you have of her

improve, remain the same or worsen?”

It would improve

34%

N/A3%

It would worsen

7%

It would remain the

same56%


By vote in the 2011 Presidential election

4127

52

58

411

3 5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Improve + equal

90%



36

Government attitudes towards the debt with international organizations

“For each of the following international organizations, do you think that Cristina Kirchner should pay them if the international courts rule against Argentina or should she refuse to pay them? If

you don't know enough to say, please say so and we'll move on.”

The 'vulture' funds

REPSOL

The houldouts

The Paris Club

The small investor and pensioners of foreign countries which have bounds in default

37

45

48

49

69

48

38

28

26

17

15

17

23

25

14

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

She should pay them She should refuse to pay them N/A



37

Main reason why Argentina should pay the debt Spontaneous answer

“In your opinion, which is the main reason why Argentina should pay the debt still in default?”

%Debts must be honoured 27To improve its internat ional posit ion 15To improve its economy 13To encourage FDI and get us credit 11To pursue economic sovereignty 8To stop paying interest 3None, it shouldn't be paid 2It must be paid, but in dif ferent terms 2To avoid default 1Others 1N/A 17Total 100



38

Reasons given to pay the debt Accordance

“The following is a list of reasons some people have given for Argentina to pay the debt that is still on default. For each, please tell me if you agree or not.”

27

27

31

46

49

52

36

42

34

40

30

35

32

28

29

11

19

11

5

3

6

3

3

2

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Paying off the debt would help to release off the exchange market

Paying off the debt would help to reactivate the real-estate market

Paying off the debt would reduce inflation

Paying off the debt would help to trigger new investments for public infrastructure

Paying off the debt would help to improve the overall economic situation and create jobs

Paying off the debt would help to integrate the country to the world

Agrees Agrees to some extent Disagrees N/A

Strong argument

Weak argument

Rejected argument Source: Poliarquía Consultores.


39

Main reason why Argentina should not pay the debt Spontaneous answer

“In your opinion, which is the main reason of why Argentina should not pay the debt still in default?”

%None, the debt should be paid 30The creditors demands are excesive 8There are others priorit ies 7To protect its economy 6There is not enough money to pay back 6It should not be paid with the current terms 5The debt is illegit imate 3Out of principle 1Others 3N/A 31Total 100



40

Reasons given not to pay the debt Accordance

“The following is a list of reasons some people have given for Argentina not to pay the debt that is still on default. For each, please tell me if you agree or not.”

Agrees Agrees to some extent Disagrees N/A

11

11

11

12

14

19

25

22

27

22

25

42

59

61

58

62

56

35

5

7

4

5

5

5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Paying off the debt would generate an economic crisis similar to 2001

Paying off the debt would mean returning to the neoliberal policies

Paying off the debt would imply the destruction of the social progress of the last years

Paying off the debt would weaken our economic sovereignty

Paying off the debt would weaken Argentina's International position

Paying off the debt would weaken the Argentinean economy

Strong argument

Weak argument

Rejected argument Source: Poliarquía Consultores.

Electoral indicators


42

Most valued politician Spontaneous answer

“Could you name a politician you like?”


2º Sem. 2010

1º Sem. 2011

2º Sem. 2011

1º Sem. 2012

2º Sem. 2012

1º Sem. 2013 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14

Sergio Massa 1 1 1 2 3 7 12 25 21 19 24 20 21 Cristina Kirchner 15 24 27 21 17 17 15 13 12 17 12 14 11 Mauricio Macri 10 9 8 11 10 8 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 Daniel Scioli 3 4 5 6 8 7 7 3 5 3 3 4 6 Elisa Carrió 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 Hermes Binner 1 2 9 6 7 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 2 Ricardo Alfonsín 6 6 5 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 José Manuel de la Sota 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 Julio Cobos 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 2 2 3 1 Martín Insaurralde 0 0 0 0 0 0 _ 2 3 3 3 1 1 A. Rodríguez Saá 1 2 5 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 Eduardo Duhalde 4 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Magarita Stolbizer 0 0 0 0 0 0 _ 1 1 1 1 0 0 Francisco de Narváez 4 2 2 2 1 2 5 3 2 1 3 1 0 Pino Solanas 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 Aníbal Fernández 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Amado Boudou 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others 16 13 14 12 13 13 16 14 14 16 17 18 17 None 18 13 10 18 22 22 21 13 19 14 14 18 17 N/A 11 12 6 8 9 9 7 5 5 7 4 5 7 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Haga clic para cambiar el estilo de título Electoral preferences for 2015 Spontaneous answer

“Who would you like to be the next President of Argentina?”


43

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Reduced

Sergio Massa 8 8 9 6 7 9 9 17 18 13 22 23 16 19

Mauricio Macri 7 7 8 6 4 6 5 6 6 8 8 7 9 10 Daniel Scioli 8 6 6 8 6 6 4 5 7 7 7 7 8 9

Cristina Kirchner 17 18 18 19 20 18 20 15 16 17 11 8 8 9 Hermes Binner 9 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 4 5 6 4 4 5

Julio Cobos _ _ _ _ _ 1 0 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 Ricardo Alfonsín 1 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 Elisa Carrió 1 1 2 1 4 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2

Francisco de Narváez 1 1 1 3 4 2 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 J.M. de la Sota 2 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0

Alberto R. Saá 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 Amado Boudou 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0

Eduardo Duhalde 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others 6 7 7 6 8 8 5 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 N/A 40 43 38 44 34 38 43 38 35 33 29 36 38 29

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


> Level of public knowledge

Pos

itive

imag

e ra

tio

Neg

ativ

e im

age

ratio

20

40

60

80

-4 -3 3 -2 2

< Level of public knowledge

4

100

Politicians according to their level of public knowledge and image ratio

44

80

Massa

Reutemann

de la Sota

Lavagna

Telerman

Alberto F. Redrado

Duhalde

Moyano

R.Saá FDN Michetti

del Sel

Pinedo

R. Larreta

J. Macri

Vidal

Macri

Capitanich

Rossi

CK

Filmus

Urtubey Kiciloff

Tomada

Sabbatella

Randazzo

Domínguez

Pichetto

Fellner

M. del Pont

De Vido Garré

Alperovich

Insfrán

M. Kirchner

Abal Medina

Bossio

Rojkes

Moreno

Echegaray

Aníbal F.

Boudou Insaurralde

Urribarri

Scioli

Lozano

Juez

Stolbizer

Binner

Prat Gay

Sanz

Gil Lavedra Aguad

Terragno

Giustiniani

Alfonsín Cobos

Carrió

Lousteau

Solanas

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