Police Legitimacy Crisis? Results from the 2015

Penn State Omnibus Poll

Jennifer C. Gibbs, Ph.D.Penn State HarrisburgSchool of Public Affairs

Outline

• Confidence in PA police• What “legitimacy” means to PA residents

– Different definitions among groups

• Link between legitimacy and public perception• Implications for policy and research

CONFIDENCE IN POLICE

Penn State Crime & Justice Poll

• Fall 2014 telephone survey• Administered by Center for Survey Research• 600 randomly-selected Pennsylvanians • Assessed attitudes about crime

& criminal justice system

See http://harrisburg.psu.edu/public-affairs/criminal-justice

PA Residents’ Confidence in Police

18%

25%37%

13%7%

…to protect you from violent crime? (n= 595)

A great deal Quite a lot Some

Very little None at all

15%

32%39%

10%

4%

…to solve crime? (n= 597)

A great deal Quite a lot SomeVery little None at all

Women have more confidence in police than men

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

A great deal Some Very little

...in the ability of the police to protect you from violent crime

Male Female

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A great deal Some Very little

...in the ability of the police to solve crime

Male Female

Note: Results are weighted by age & sex; weights calculated by CSR

(Χ2= 10.925, df= 2, p= 0.004) (Χ2= 2.968, df= 2, p= 0.225)

Whites & Hispanics more confident in police than Blacks/African-Americans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A great deal Some Very little

...in the ability of the police to protect you from violent crime

Hispanic Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

A great deal Some Very little

...in the ability of the police to solve crime

Hispanic Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black

(Χ2= 12.346, df= 6, p= 0.055) (Χ2= 40.609, df= 6, p= 0.000)

Note: Results are weighted by race; weight calculation assistance from CSR

WHAT IS “LEGITIMACY”?

Source: Time (http://time.com/3815606/police-violence-timeline/)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Feb. 26Trayvon Martin:

Sanford, FL

July 17Eric Garner:

New York City

Aug. 9Michael Brown:Ferguson, MO

Nov. 22Tamir Rice:

Cleveland, OH

April 7Walter Scott:

N. Charleston, SC

April 19Freddie Gray:

Baltimore

Penn State Crime & Justice Poll

fielded by CSR

Timeline of selected police killings making national headlines

Background

• National attention to police-public tension

• Term “legitimacy” used in media

• What does public think “legitimacy” means?

Academics define legitimacy as…

EffectivenessProcedural fairness

Obligation to obeyTrust

Lawfulness Acts of consentMorality

Distributive fairness

HOW DO PA RESIDENTS DEFINE POLICE LEGITIMACY?

I shall not today attempt … to define [it]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it….

Methods

• Telephone survey– Conducted by PSH Center for Survey Research– Part of biannual omnibus Penn State Poll– Administered March 4-April 15, 2015– 16,372 phone numbers dialed (cell + landline)

• Random sample of 601 adult PA residents

Coding scheme

• Open-ended question:Thinking about the police,

what does “legitimacy” mean to you?

• 2 independent coders– 95% agreement (1st round)– Complete agreement after discussion

Sample (n= 421)Sample PA (Census)

Women 54.9% 51.1%

White 89.6% 82.9%

Black or African American 4.2% 11.6%

Hispanic or Latino 2.4% 6.6%

Age (med.) 48 62.2% (18-65)

High school graduate or higher 96.8% 88.7%

Bachelor’s degree or higher 43.4% 27.5%

Below poverty level 13.7% 13.3%

Cell phone 42.6% 26.2%

Definitions of legitimacyCategory Percent

Integrity/Morality 40.7

Lawful/Legal 23.3

Fair/Procedural Justice 14.6

Protection/Effective 12.7

Adequate training/certified/other (real, essential, legitimate) 8.7

Note: Results are weighted by age and sex

Is there a legitimacy crisis in policing?

• It depends on how legitimacy is defined

• Citizen definition categories support literature– Other definitions include training, necessity,

“real”, “legitimate”

DEFINITIONAL DIFFERENCES

Do men and women define legitimacy differently?

Note: Data are weighted by age and sex

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Integrity/Morality

Lawful/ Legality Fair/ Proceduraljustice

Protection/Effective

Training/Certified/ Other

Male Female

NO

Do Whites define legitimacy differently than Minorities?

Χ2=9.987, df= 4, p= 0.041 Note: Data are weighted by race

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Integrity/Morality

Lawful/ Legality Fair/ Proceduraljustice

Protection/Effective

Training/Certified/ Other

White Nonwhite

YES!

Do race differences sustain when other factors are considered?

Factor Lawful/Legality

Fair/ Proc. Justice

Protection/ Effective

Training/ Certified/ Other

Men n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.

Hispanic n.s. n.s.

White n.s. n.s. n.s.

Age55 or older n.s. n.s.

Republican n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.

Income n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.

EducationCollege n.s. n.s. n.s.

Police contact n.s.

Summary

• Integrity remains most popular definition

– Legality & Protection more common for Hispanics

– Fairness more important for non-Whites

– Older respondents more concerned with training

– Legality & Fairness used by those with police contact

IS THERE A LINK BETWEEN DEFINITIONS OF

POLICE LEGITIMACYAND PUBLIC ATTITUDES

TOWARD POLICE?

DataDependent variables• Opinion of police

(1= positive; 0= negative)

• Are police legitimate? (1= yes; 0= no)

Independent variable• Definition of legitimacy

• Control variables– Men– Hispanic– Black/African-American– Age– Republican– Income– Education– Contact with police

• Plans for analysis: Logit

Sample (n= 421)Sample PA (Census)

Women 54.9% 51.1%

White 89.6% 82.9%

Black or African American 4.2% 11.6%

Hispanic or Latino 2.4% 6.6%

Age (med.) 48 62.2% (18-65)

High school graduate or higher 96.8% 88.7%

Bachelor’s degree or higher 43.4% 27.5%

Under $20K/Below poverty level 13.7% 13.3%

Cell phone 42.6% 26.2%

Positive opinion of police Police are legitimate

Legitimacy definition:Lawful/LegalFairness/PJProtectionTraining/Other

n.s.n.s.n.s.n.s.

n.s.n.s.n.s.n.s.

n.s.n.s.n.s.n.s.

n.s.n.s.

Men - n.s. - n.s.

Hispanic - n.s. - n.s.

White - -

Age - n.s. - n.s.

Republican - n.s. - n.s.

Income - -

Education - n.s. - n.s.

Police contact - n.s. - n.s.

Summary

• Legitimacy definitions not related to views of police– Trend: Protection & Training/Other

• Whites have more favorable views of police

• Those with higher incomes have more favorable views of police

Is there a police legitimacy crisis?

…on how legitimacy is defined…on who is doing the defining

IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY & RESEARCH

If police want to improve their legitimacy in the eyes of their constituents…

• Consider how legitimacy is defined– Target resources to those

areas

• Consider who is defining legitimacy & how

Researchers should…

• Incorporate qualitative data into quantitative surveys

• Pay close attention to group differences

Check for Research Brief later this month…

https://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/Data/tabid/1010/Default.aspx