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Policy and regulation in the digital age Alison Gillwald Research ICT Africa and University of Cape Town CPRsouth Young Scholars Programme Maropeng, 7 September, 2014 1

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Page 1: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Policy and regulation in the digital ageAlison Gillwald

Research ICT Africa and University of Cape Town

CPRsouth Young Scholars Programme

Maropeng, 7 September, 2014

1

Page 2: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Deregulation enable entry of new competitors in the production and distribution, digitisation create opportunities for innovation television services and and disruptive business models.

End of linear model- Industrial

2

Broadcasting Telecom Postal

100100100

Page 3: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Offering of services across traditionally distinct broadcasting and telecommunications platforms as a result of digitalisation and liberalisation of markets

Convergence

3

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Page 4: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

From monopoly to competitionTelecom Reform‣ Monopoly/public utility model - natural

monopoly ‣ Best consumer welfare outcomes through

competition - widest range of choice and lowest prices

‣ Historically state owned monopoly transfer to private ownership and risk - new models of public-private interplay where the relative powers and resources of both sectors are leveraged to achieve wide-based national benefit

‣ Success dependent on appropriate market structure, clear institutional arrangements, high levels of state co-ordination across sector, and tiers of government. 4

Page 5: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Internet as a global distribution network, stimulated by convergence between media, telecommunications and IT, facilitated the provision of content (audio visual) over converged IP networks, across multiple devices

ICT ecosystem

5

Page 6: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Linkages between policy, regulatory, institutional, market, citizens/consumer elements

Conceptual/Analytical framework

6

State

Citizens

/national objectives

Page 7: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Policy objectives, implementation strategies, policy outcomes

7

Approach & methodology

‣ Policy objectives • Policy, legal and regulatory framework

‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure

‣ Outcomes • Access (changing nature) • Use (changing nature) • Prices/ Contribution to growth/development/social good

Page 8: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

SA steady descentGlobal ICT indices

8

ICT Development

Report‣ ICT Readiness

(infrastructure, access)

‣ ICT Use (intensity)

‣ ICT Capability (Skills)

‣ 90/155 overall 2013 ‣ 95/155 price basket 2013 ‣ 1996 rank 40 ‣ 2002 rank 77th ‣ 2005: rank 91st ‣ 2007: rank 91st ‣ 2008: rank 92nd

WEF Network Readiness

‣ 70% of 144 2013 (72/2012)

‣ 140/144 Education system

‣ Maths and Science 143/144

‣ Fallen from 34th in 2004, 37th in 2005, 47th in 2006, 51st in 2007, 52nd in 2008.

‣ Major barriers to sector growth:

‣ Lack of investment/competitive or affordable backbone infrastructure/ bandwidth

‣ High costs of access to communications

‣ Effective regulation/weak institutional arrangements

Page 9: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

World Bank - a 10% increase in penetration results in 1% growth in developed economies and 1.5% in developing.

Penetration and economic growth

‣ Strong evidence of linkages investment in broadband economic growth and improvements in the economy

‣ Direct opportunities for manufacturing, service provision and job creation, but primarily enhancement of communication flows that improve productivity and efficiency (Katz and Koutroumpis 2010)

‣ Need to reach critical mass to enjoy network effects access, use and price right general purpose technology (Roller and Waverman 2006)

9

Page 10: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Internet usage: 2007/08 VS 2011/12

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Rwanda

Uganda

Ghana

Cameroon

Namibia

Nigeria

Kenya

Botswana

South Africa 33.7%

29.0%

26.3%

18.4%

16.2%

14.1%

12.7%

7.9%

6.0%

3.5%

2.7%

15.0%

5.8%

15.0%

8.8%

13.0%

5.6%

2.4%

2.0%

2.2%

0.7%

2007/8 2011/12

Page 11: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

The economic impact of digitization is measured through an endogenous growth model that links GDP to the Fixed Stock of Capital, Labor Force

Digitization Index

11

How many jobs will South Africa Connect be capable of

generating as a result of network deployment? How large will the employment creation effect be once the

National Broadband Network is deployed? What will the impact be in terms of domestic value added

resulting from network construction? What is the incremental GDP growth that can be linked to

broadband deployment?

Employment

2

Economic Impact

1

Source: Katz, Koutroumpis, Callorda (2012)

Page 12: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

The index was calculated for 184 countries, indicating that countries tend to follow four developmental stages

Digitalization Index

1210

The index was calculated for 184 countries, indicating that countries tend to follow four developmental

stages

Source: Katz, Koutroumpis, and Callorda (2013)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

• Burundi • Malawi • Madagascar • Central African Republic • Mali Dem. • Rep. Congo • Comoros • Niger • Solomon Islands • Papua New Guinea • Mozambique • Afghanistan • Lesotho • Burkina Faso • Zimbabwe • Uganda • Myanmar

CONSTRAINED • Togo • Vanuatu • Sierra Leone • Tanzania • The Gambia • Senegal • Ethiopia • Sao Tome and Principe • Rwanda • Congo • Cameroon • Guinea • Zambia • Turkmenistan • Mauritania • Angola • Tuvalu

• Lao PDR • Nepal • Benin • Tajikistan • Timor-Leste • Ghana • Samoa • Nigeria • Swaziland • Eritrea • Cote d'Ivoire • Djibouti • Yemen • Iraq • West Bank and Gaza • Nicaragua

• Kenya • Bangladesh • VIrgin Islands • Cambodia • Cuba • Tonga • Guatemala • Honduras • Fiji • New Caledonia • Bolivia • Guyana • Syrian Arab Republic • Kyrgyz Republic • Namibia

EMERGING • Pakistan • Uzbekistan • India • Bhutan • Gabon • Sri Lanka • Cape Verde • Morocco • Libya • Belize • Vietnam • Egypt • Maldives • El Salvador • Paraguay

• Trinidad and Tobago • Sudan • Albania • Dominican Republic • Algeria • Tunisia • China • Macao SAR • Venezuela • Jamaica • South Africa • Jordan • Thailand • Indonesia • Bosnia and Herzegovina

• Peru • Iran • Lebanon • Botswana • Oman • Seychelles • Ecuador • Philippines • Andorra • Armenia • Macedonia • Azerbaijan • Brazil • Antigua and Barbuda • Dominica • Bahrain • San Marino

TRANSITIONAL • Mexico

• Bermuda • Barbados • Costa Rica • Colombia • Moldova • Ukraine • Saudi Arabia • Montenegro • Georgia • Aruba • Turkey • Croatia • Panama • Brunei • St. Vincent • Kazakhstan • Argentina

• Puerto Rico • St. Lucia • Liechtenstein • Serbia • Estonia • Hungary • Qatar • Malaysia • Kuwait • Taiwan • Uruguay • Slovak Republic • Latvia • Chile • Cyprus

• Mongolia • Greece • Russia • Poland • Bulgaria • UAE • Italy • Spain • Romania • Lithuania • Czech Rep. • Slovenia • Japan • New Zealand • Germany • Malta • Mauritius • Portugal • Belarus • Austria

ADVANCED • France • Singapore • Iceland • Netherlands • Australia • Belgium • Ireland • Hong Kong • Sweden • United States • Luxembourg • Israel • Korea • Switzerland • Canada • United Kingdom • Denmark • Finland • Norway

Page 13: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

More than infrastructure...Broadband ecosystem

13

Source: Kim, Kelly, Raja (2010)

Page 14: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Broadband introduces levels of complexity in policy, regulation, business models and consumer choice.

Broadband issues

14

Supply side policies Demand side policies

Investment/competition Affordability of services/devices

Core/access network expansion – public/private

Government leadership/role model - demand stimulation

Reduction of infrastructure costs

Regulation/ ICT skills development/

Spectrum allocation and assignment

Online local content , applications, e-gov services

Universal access/service Consumer welfare/ user empowerment

Page 15: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Theory of disruptive competition and innovation pioneered by Clayton Christensen explains how and when a business model is likely to succeed through innovation and disruption of the market.

Disruptive competition

‣ http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/

15

http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/

Page 16: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Up to a two line subtitle, generally used to describe the takeaway for the slide

16

Page 17: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

To what degree are TV channels able to leverage their linear programming to play their aggregator role in an on-demand market?

Responding to disruptive competition

‣ Accelerate internal processes, major investments and a willingness to give up some control

‣ invest in IT and review trade off between linear and on-demand distribution

‣ partner and merge • (NBC Universal and Comcast) - ‘vertical integration from camera lens

to eyeball’ - Eli Noam • Mitigate chord cutting with channel cutting • Content providers disintermediate themselves by going to viewers

directly17

Page 18: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Price of cable, satellite or IPTV services on the one hand, the innovative service and content available on the internet on the other coupled with the increasing quality of service of broadband delivery and easier access to Internet content on TV contribute to the switch to over the top services.

Global trends - Content

‣ Linear model based on privileged access to device providing competitive advantage

‣ ‘Cutting the cord’ or ‘cord shaving’ or ‘cord shifting ‘no cord’

‣ traditional ‘push’ model to individualised ‘pull’ model

‣ changes to the structure of the industry , in business models and to policy. 18

Page 19: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Policy measures aimed at the public internet lane transfer issues to other parts of the value chain where struggle by players in video distribution value chain are trying to influence and control access that consumers have to content and applications.

Net neutrality

‣ Transparency as first, non-intrusive measure • provide end users with meaning insight into traffic

management measures to make informed choices • focus at the public internet lane in the distribution part of

the value chain • response constrained by bundled (triple play) strategies

‣ No blocking/throttling as next step • Reasonable network management

‣ No retail tariffing by ISPs of OTT as business 19

Page 20: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Value chain for video distribution characterised by ongoing struggle between various business players to influence and control access that consumer have to content and applications.Net neutrality refers to the actions by operators that limit open access that end users have to the Internet.Limitations in the access that end users have to disruptive applications, VOIP

OTT video and net neutrality

20electronics manufacturers are relevant in this context. Apple TV and Google TV thus come tofunction as new platforms (and potentially also gatekeepers) for online streaming videocontent. Their selection of video content as well as their navigation menus, presentation andranking of video content will affect which content users will find most easily. In this domainthey compete with network providers, especially with those offering sophisticated EPGs andother navigation tools, either as separate services or included in proprietary set-top boxes.

2.2 Control points in the value chain

There are a number of important assets or control points in the video value chain. A properunderstanding of these control points is crucial to come to a useful value-chain basedanalysis of net neutrality. Other authors have also pointed at the importance of taking intoaccount the full value network or full internet ecosystem in assessing the need or desirabilityof regulation, instead of concentrating on the activities performed in isolated markets. Ballonand Van Heesvelde (2011) investigate the role of platforms and associated control points inICTs in general, while Ballon and Walravens (2008) study their role in mobile services inparticular. They point at the specificity of ICT markets, which are often characterized by thecreation of multi-sided platforms with different types of business models, involving differentdegrees of control over assets and consumers. Herzhoff et al. (2010) present asystems-theoretical analysis of mobile VoIP, starting from so-called tussles that emergearound control points. Eaton et al. (2010) develop models for analyzing business modelsbuilt around control points in the value network for mobile internet and telephony.

In this paper we distinguish the following crucial assets in the value chain for internet video:

B A first asset is the possession of content or content rights, which is ultimately whatconsumers watch and pay for, either in money or in exchange for ‘‘eyeballs’’, i.e. attentionto commercials.

B A second important asset is the possession of a direct relationship with customers,enabling payment and billing transactions and, especially in combination with informationon consumer profiles, sophisticated marketing and consumer loyalty campaigns.

B Third, the ability to guide people’s attention and thereby their preferences andconsumption patterns through search engines, electronic program guides, openingscreens, and other navigation tools is also becoming an increasingly important asset inthe online world.

Last but not least, access to networks and bandwidth of course remains crucial.Thedistribution of these assets over the different players determines their position andnegotiation power. All of these assets might come into play when content providers and(vertically integrated) network and service providers negotiate agreements on transport anddelivery of video content.

Figure 1 Value chain for video with a two-lane distribution model for complementing (andpartly competing) OTT and managed video services

PAGE 48 j infoj VOL. 14 NO. 6 2012

Source: Nooren et al. Net neutrality and the value chain

Page 21: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Distribution of these assets over different players determines their position and negotiation power and come into play when content providers and vertically integrated networks negotiate agreements on transport of video content.

Value chain asset for Internet video

‣ Possession of content or content rights that consumers watch and pay for (either in money or exchange for eyeballs

‣ possession of direct relationship with customers, enabling payment and billing transactions, especially in combination with information on consumer profiles, sophisticated marketing and consumer loyalty campaigns

‣ Ability to guide people attention and preferences and consumption patterns through search engines, EPG, opening screen and navigation tools

‣ Access to networks and bandwidth 21

Page 22: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Do these measures promote neutrality and openness of the public internet lane as intended or do they make the public internet lane less attractive for network operators as they introduce a number of obligations and restrictions in the network management and business models?

New new old regulatory issues

‣ Interconnection and peering • conflict driven by strongly asymmetric traffic profiles associated with

large scale distribution of streaming video • Operators widen the managed services lane and focus their

resources there ‣ Steering eyeballs: EPG, app stores, devices, cloud

services • Search and navigation increasingly linked to devices and apps than

to tradition search engine on the open used in battle for eyeballs and advertisers.

‣ CONTENT RIGHTS, PEERING, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, SEARCH 22

Page 23: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Demand stimulation (human development) biggest challenge to equitable ICT use.

Recommendations

Neither facilities based competition or big national build Open access networks, one build strategies and infrastructure sharing to avoid cost of duplication Effective ex ante regulation - CTR - Peering and IP transit Reform strategies to increase service competition will lower prices and lead to better and faster access:

Spectrum re-farming to issue LTE spectrum Shortening the dual illumination period for digital broadcasting migration to free up spectrum Allow for dynamic spectrum allocation technologies New service neutral and exempt licences Require reselling of fixed-broadband (ADSL), for it to become cheaper and to compete with mobile broadband

Scrapping import duties/Tax for ICTs Withstand telco lobby on charging for OTT services. 23

Page 24: Policy and regulation in the digital age€¦ · • Policy, legal and regulatory framework ‣ Strategies • Institutional arrangements • Regulation • Market structure ‣ Outcomes

Up to a two line subtitle, generally used to describe the takeaway for the slide

2410

The index was calculated for 184 countries, indicating that countries tend to follow four developmental

stages

Source: Katz, Koutroumpis, and Callorda (2013)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

• Burundi • Malawi • Madagascar • Central African Republic • Mali Dem. • Rep. Congo • Comoros • Niger • Solomon Islands • Papua New Guinea • Mozambique • Afghanistan • Lesotho • Burkina Faso • Zimbabwe • Uganda • Myanmar

CONSTRAINED • Togo • Vanuatu • Sierra Leone • Tanzania • The Gambia • Senegal • Ethiopia • Sao Tome and Principe • Rwanda • Congo • Cameroon • Guinea • Zambia • Turkmenistan • Mauritania • Angola • Tuvalu

• Lao PDR • Nepal • Benin • Tajikistan • Timor-Leste • Ghana • Samoa • Nigeria • Swaziland • Eritrea • Cote d'Ivoire • Djibouti • Yemen • Iraq • West Bank and Gaza • Nicaragua

• Kenya • Bangladesh • VIrgin Islands • Cambodia • Cuba • Tonga • Guatemala • Honduras • Fiji • New Caledonia • Bolivia • Guyana • Syrian Arab Republic • Kyrgyz Republic • Namibia

EMERGING • Pakistan • Uzbekistan • India • Bhutan • Gabon • Sri Lanka • Cape Verde • Morocco • Libya • Belize • Vietnam • Egypt • Maldives • El Salvador • Paraguay

• Trinidad and Tobago • Sudan • Albania • Dominican Republic • Algeria • Tunisia • China • Macao SAR • Venezuela • Jamaica • South Africa • Jordan • Thailand • Indonesia • Bosnia and Herzegovina

• Peru • Iran • Lebanon • Botswana • Oman • Seychelles • Ecuador • Philippines • Andorra • Armenia • Macedonia • Azerbaijan • Brazil • Antigua and Barbuda • Dominica • Bahrain • San Marino

TRANSITIONAL • Mexico

• Bermuda • Barbados • Costa Rica • Colombia • Moldova • Ukraine • Saudi Arabia • Montenegro • Georgia • Aruba • Turkey • Croatia • Panama • Brunei • St. Vincent • Kazakhstan • Argentina

• Puerto Rico • St. Lucia • Liechtenstein • Serbia • Estonia • Hungary • Qatar • Malaysia • Kuwait • Taiwan • Uruguay • Slovak Republic • Latvia • Chile • Cyprus

• Mongolia • Greece • Russia • Poland • Bulgaria • UAE • Italy • Spain • Romania • Lithuania • Czech Rep. • Slovenia • Japan • New Zealand • Germany • Malta • Mauritius • Portugal • Belarus • Austria

ADVANCED • France • Singapore • Iceland • Netherlands • Australia • Belgium • Ireland • Hong Kong • Sweden • United States • Luxembourg • Israel • Korea • Switzerland • Canada • United Kingdom • Denmark • Finland • Norway