Policy Foresight on the Institutional Reform of Civil Service Training

for Taiwan's High-Rank Officials*

José Chiu-C. Chen, Min-Hsiu Chiang**

Abstract

Taiwan government has paid much attention to the institutional reform of civil

service training for Taiwan's high-rank officials, which is also a critical research issue

in the filed of public human resources management. The major problems of

Taiwan’s high-rank officials training system are “the dual personnel systems in central

government, disputes on bureaucrat’s core competences, upcoming high retirement

rates among the high-rank civil servants,” and others. To solve these problems, the

Government has been considering some strategies, including “the establishment of

Senior Civil Service System, the expansion of talent sources, the improvements on

examination and selection methods, the initiative of talent exchange program, and the

provision of core competency checklist.”

In order to provide an intensive and extensive base for decision-making on the

reform of civil service training systems for Taiwan's high-rank officials, we have first

studied a wide range of international cases and made a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses,

opportunities and threats) analysis on Taiwan's current civil service training system

and then designed a Delphi questionnaire, which was used to seek the consensus from

18 experts on issues, such as the required core competencies for the high-rank civil

servants, division of training responsibilities, talent exchange system, career mapping,

training and promotion mechanism. Three experts were then chosen from the 18

specialists and invited to partake in the Scenario Seminar, from which two (2) sets of

10-year foresight-planning scenarios on how to reform the civil service training

system for Taiwan's high-rank officials have been drafted and proposed.

Keyword: Civil Service Reform, High-Rank Officials, Policy Foresight, Scenario

Writing

* This research paper is an adaptation from the commissioned research project, which is titled as “A

Foresight Study on Civil Service Training Reform for Taiwan’s High-Rank Officials”, the

commissioned time period was July 2009 to December 2010. This research paper only represents the

opinions of the researcher. **

The authors’ position and affiliation, in order, are Assistant Professor / Dept. of Public Management

and Policy at Tunghai University, Taiwan; Professor / Dept. of Public Administration at National

Chengchi University, Taiwan. José Chiu-C. Chen is corresponding author (josechen@thu.edu.tw; P.O.

Box 363 Tunghai University, Taichung, Taiwan 40704).

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A. Introduction

In this fast-changing world, the Government departments have to adapt, and

respond to many opportunities and challenges, which may cause many complex and

wicked public-affair issues, prompting the operation of a civil service system to

reform from traditional type to a new spirit of services. In addition, the “clients” to

whom the Government departments provide service have also shifted from

“simplicity” to diversity. In addition, the expectations of the general public to the

authority for civil servants and the core competence of the public personnel have had

a lot of changes. Overall, the trend has been moving towards "cross-sector

governance". How should the civil service system respond, facing such a changing

wave? Which level should start to respond? As a response to those findings, some

commentators have summed up the characteristics of senior civil service systems in

five countries, including Japan, Germany, Britain, France, and the United States and

divided them into three modes, namely, a closed multi-track mode, open multi-track

mode, and open competition model (Peng, 1998) and stressed that any type of mode

needs long-term training.

Following the UK, USA, Singapore, and South Korea, Taiwan set up the

National Academy of Civil Service (NACS) in 2010, which puts special emphasis on

the training and lifelong learning and international exchange for high-ranking civil

servants. Looking ahead, it is very essential to align the high-ranking civil servants’

training system with the expectations of citizens internally and respond to the global

trends of competition in public services externally. Thus, the strategic focus for the

high-ranking civil servants’ training system should be put on upgrading their

capabilities in decision making, leadership, and management by setting up

foresight-thinking training policy and fulfilling the vision of overall service by the

Government.

To clarify the current status of training system for high-ranking civil servants in

Taiwan, major challenges, and coping strategies, we have first reviewed a wide range

of relevant literatures to explore the current status and challenges of Taiwan’s

high-ranking civil servants’ training system. Secondly, we have conducted in-depth

interviews among various experts to get their insights on the status, issues, strategies,

and development for the high-ranking civil servants training in order to generate the

framework and draft of a Delphi questionnaire, which has then gone through some

pre-tests and necessary adjustments and turned into the official version. Some further

tests have also been conducted on the finalized questionnaire before its release.

Finally, based on the foresight study approach and the results from two rounds of

Delphi questionnaire survey, we have held scenario-planning and scenario-writing

seminar, in which experts have been invited to discuss and reach consensus on the

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factors that may affect the training system for high-ranking civil servants in the next

10 years. Those factors have then been classified and used to form two axes and to

develop four possible scenarios, from which two have been chosen for in-depth

analysis to explore the relationships between the contents and the affecting factors in

terms of intensity and direction. After all these efforts, we have then officially

proposed two sets of scenarios. The research and results that we have already done

will be described in the following.

B. Analysis of relevant theories and practical research results

(A) Taiwan's experience in the implementation of foresight study and analysis

Foresight is the most widely used concept in "Futurology". It is defined as a

systematic and long-term in-depth study on the scientific, technical, economic,

environmental, and social processes. Its objectives must be clearly defined and

conducted by way of strategic research and emerging technologies so as to produce

the largest output value for the economic and social interests. The application of

foresight studies are mainly related to science and technology foresight and policy

foresight. To distinguish the science and technology foresight from policy foresight,

researchers have analyzed them in terms of "thinking base, target vision, field

properties, participating members, and focus points" and found that policy foresight is

mainly applied to social and economic issues. Its core goal is to formulate public

policies and actions through consensus among participants from various fields

(Chiang and Chen, 2010: 8). Currently, Policy foresight has been widely used in such

policy issues as science and technology, education, industry, national land planning,

energy, urban and rural areas, trade, relations between two sides of the Taiwan Straits,

agriculture, environmental protection and others.

Foresight is different from forecast in that forecast is to speculate the occurrence

of future incidence and its probability, based on past experience, patterns, and

behavior. Foresight is to plan for the future, so that it would move towards "desired

future state" and away from the "undesired future state", based on change and

creativity. In short, foresight is to set up multiple possibilities for the future and make

a choice today that may affect the future; it is not only a "forecast" of the future but

also a choice among many possibilities and an attempt to "shape" and even "create"

the future (Foresight Committee, 2010: 5).

Japan is the first country to propose the foresight theory, while RAND

Corporation of the United States is most well known for advancing foresight

techniques. Japan has begun to use the foresight technology since the 1970s and has

today entered into the ninth round of foresight research methods. Subsequently,

Germany, South Korea, and some European countries have gradually got involved in

the foresight study. Japan has found in its current study of policy foresight that several

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problems require attention: First, the objective should be clearly defined; second, the

classification of applied researches should be correct; third, the principles should be

integrated; fourth, the roles of players should be coordinated; fifth, any innovative

model should be directly developed (Chiang and Chen, 2010: 8, 9). Researchers have

analyzed the foresight methods adopted in different countries and found that "Delphi

method" or "Scenario Analysis" is most widely used. In addition, the analysis of

foresight research process has led us to find that the content is mainly to set up

research agenda, choose the focus issue, carry out the Delphi study, establish scenario

and write the script, conduct expert meetings, and specify policy vision. (Chou, 2009;

Chiang and Chen, 2010).

As shown in Table 1, different Government departments in Taiwan have had

different purposes in promoting foresight study, which has evolved in different stages

from the social and economic development, to automation foresight development, to

the future of industrial research, and to the consensus building. Nevertheless, there is

one thing in common, that is, all of them have made considerable contributions to the

formulation of innovative research strategies for Taiwan's future policies. In terms of

study methods at different times, we can also see similar research strategy methods,

including the Delphi method, scenario analysis and planning, and expert discussion.

Results of these studies have been eventually integrated to form more innovative and

forward-looking conclusions for reference to policy makers in the future.

Table 1: Foresight experience in different Government departments in Taiwan

Science and

Technology

Advisory Group

National Science Council Ministry of Economic

Affairs Council of Agriculture

Program Name

(Year)

A Study of the

Pre-Design for

Science and

Technology

foresight

Mechanism in

Taiwan

(2005)

1. Automation

Technology's foresight

Forecast Program

(2003)

2. Academic Mileage and

Technology foresight

Program in Taiwan

(2007)

3. A Research on and

Recommendations for

Long-term Science and

Technology foresight

Policy in Taiwan (2009)

1. A pre-study on

Industrial

Development and

Technology

Integration in

2015

2. An Industrial

Technology

foresight

Research Project

in Taiwan (2009)

1. Agricultural

Science and

Technology

foresight Planning

2. A Plan to Establish

Agricultural

Science and

Technology

foresight System

(2009)

Implementation

Units

TIER

IEK

STPI

1. STPI

2. Academia Sinica

3. STPI, Taiwan

University, Tsinghua

University

IEK 1. STPI

2. TIER

Program

Objective

Taiwan’s

socio-economic

development in

2020

1. Selecting Focus Points

and Setting

Development Direction

for Automation in

Taiwan

1. Taiwan Industry

in 2015

2. Taiwan Industry

in 2020

Building up

Consensus in

Technology

Development and

Promoting

- 4 -

2. Technological

Development in 2025

3. Strengthening the Link

between foresight and

Policy

Reformation of

Agricultural

Methods of

Implementation

Collaborative

learning

Brainstorming among

Experts, Modeling and

data collection

Expert interviews,

scenario analysis

Delphi

Program Features

Setting up the

mechanism

design process

Selection of areas for

foresight study,

mechanism design process,

consensus cohesion in

depth and breadth

Future scenarios for

industries

Tools for Integration

and analysis,

systematic

background

information

Source: Chou, 2009: 51

After synthesizing the results of previous studies, we have decided to set up for

this article the following process for our own foresight study (see Figure 1), which

focuses mainly on the research topic, expert options on future policy options,

communication and coordination, and promotion of consensus on foresight.

Figure 1: process of foresight study

(B) Analysis of current situation of the high-ranking civil servants’ training system in

Taiwan

There is no separate personnel system for high-level civil servants in Taiwan and

Analysis of the trends for high-ranking civil servants’ training

in Taiwan and abroad

Team deliberation on the dimensions of institutional reform for future

high-ranking civil servants’ training system in Taiwan

Design of Delphi questionnaire for institutional reform for high-ranking civil

servants’ training system

Delphi Survey: Two rounds of Survey and Analysis

Scenario Seminar: to establish context and

script writing

Integration, analysis - conclusions and

recommendations of the script

- 5 -

nor is there a clear-cut definition for high-ranking civil servants. In general, senior

rank officials of grade 12 and above are considered as high-ranking civil servants. In

accordance with the existing Basic Code Governing Central and Local Administrative

Agencies, the majority of positions at or above senior rank of grade 12 are distributed

in the central government. According to the Public Service Employment Act, officials

at or above grade 12 of senior rank position must have the knowledge and

administrative or professional experience to (1) carry out their duties independently;

(2) oversees the overall business of the provincial and municipal agencies or units; (3 )

assist his or her direct supervisors in dealing with very arduous tasks; (4) handle

difficult technical or professional tasks and get involved in planning, designing,

operating, researching or reviewing those projects of great significance to the country,

especially those related creativity and invention; (5) deal with other businesses of

equivalent responsibilities.

There are at least two organizations in Taiwan, which are involved in training

high-ranking civil servants. The first one is the National Academy of Civil Service

(NACS), under the supervision of Civil Service Protection and Training Commission

(CSPTC) of the Examination Yuan, while the other is Civil Service Development

Institute (CSDI), under the supervision of Central Personnel Administration (CPA) of

Executive Yuan. Fortunately, the dispute over the division of labor has been resolved

by a consensus reached under "Examination Yuan’s Plan to Strengthen the Civil

Service Training Function", which divides the high-ranking civil servants’ training

system into three categories, namely "Development Training", "Training for Senior

Civil Service", and "On-the-job training " NACS is responsible for the first two types

of training while CSDI takes charge of the third type of training.

With reference to the relevant literatures, the researchers have summarized seven

major problems in Taiwan’s high-ranking civil servants’ training system, namely lack

of flexibility in incoming sources of high-ranking civil servants for training (for

example: the threshold to restrict human resources exchange with the business

communication and individualism in the personnel development of different units),

not enough board-minded in professionalism, insufficient hand-on experience, lack of

adaptability, inconsistence in positions and responsibilities, lack of sense of

competition, and uninterested formalized curriculum arrangements (Chiang and Chen,

2010: 21-25). To further clarify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats

existing in the high-ranking civil servants’ training system, the researchers have

conducted the SWOT analysis in an attempt to illustrate more clearly the

environments and conditions facing the institutional reform of high-ranking civil

servants’ training system in Taiwan. Accordingly, this article has defined the measures

taken in the past to rectify existing controversy in the high-ranking civil servants’

training system as strengths, while the controversy continuing to exist as weaknesses.

Those elements and factors which may bring in inspiration and reform to the

high-ranking civil servants’ training systems are regarded as opportunities, such as the

global trend towards civil service reform and the needs to develop more human capital

due to the developments between two sides of the Taiwan Straits and/or the Asian

region. Those factors contradictory to opportunities are considered threats. For

example, is Taiwan able to compete with other Asian countries or even the world for

high-level human capital to meet the demand of globalization? Please refer to Table 2

for more details about the SWOT analysis for the high-ranking civil servants’ training

system in Taiwan.

- 6 -

Table 2: A SWOT Analysis of the high-ranking civil servants training system in Taiwan

Internal

Environment

Strength Weakness

The setup of National

Academy of Civil Service

(NACS)

The long-existing problem of overlapping

training responsibilities is still disturbing the

training system.

Lack of clear-cut management system for

high-ranking civil servants leads to

imperfect training system and exit

mechanism.

Coordination and integration capabilities of

high-ranking civil servants have to be

nurtured and developed through

cross-ministerial mechanisms.

Insufficient linkage between assessment of

core competency and implementation of

training courses for high-ranking civil

servants.

High-ranking civil servants do not

understand the needs of citizens and society

well enough.

External

Environment

Opportunity Threat

The impact of globalization

trends

The development of

cross-Taiwan-Strait

relations and Asia-Pacific

region

International human resources database for

the high-ranking civil servants has been not

yet established

Training courses for high-ranking civil

servants are not internationalized well

enough

Framework for core competencies of

high-ranking civil servants has to be more

carefully constructed.

Special executive management system is yet

to be constructed.

Source: Chiang and Chen, 2010: 31-32

(C) Analysis of the institutional environment Taiwan in the future 10 years

Scholars and experts who are actively involved in “foresight study” set up the

"Foresight Committee" in Taiwan in 2009, aiming to map out the future political,

economic, social, and cultural policies for Taiwan from the perspective of policy

foresight. Based on their research on international practice and trends, they have

advocated that the term “foresight" represents the discontinuity in cognitive science

and technology, humanities, social, political and economic development and external

environment and is closely related to uncertainty. All the policies should be

formulated to meet human needs and emphasize on both technology and humanities.

The second "CommonWealth Economic Forum" was held on 10-11 January 2011

to address the theme "The Rise of New Asia: Conflict, Growth and a New Future", in

which four future trends for Taiwan were identified, namely:

1. Taiwan's new role in Asia: President MA Ying-Jiu said in the opening speech

that Taiwan should play four new roles in Asia: (1) an important promoter of

economic integration in Asia: As of 2010, Taiwan has completed signing as

many as 80 free trade agreements with other countries; (2) the global

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headquarters for Taiwanese businesses and regional headquarters for foreign

companies; (3) a global innovation center; and (4) a center for higher

education in the Asia-Pacific region.

2. A new growth model in East Asia: Economic ministers and chief scholars

from Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Japan predicted that East Asia will be

more consolidated and enter a new era of domestic demand-led growth.

Governments will play a role to provide social welfare and allocate resources.

In addition, Vice President Vincent Siew also proposed in his speech that the

core values of Asian development model should be "inclusive, balanced, and

sharing."

3. Economic forecast for Asia in 2011: It is predicted that three "new normal

states" will arrive in 2011. They are population (Baby boomers will recede,

while a new generation is coming up), the revision of historical rules

(European and American countries move away from the principle of free

market competition, while China continues to expand its market), and the

development of new Asian economic model (New Asian Way).

4. The era of digital convergence and cultural creativity: Asian cultural

creativity industry will make a dent in the world map. In mid-2010, the film

market value of four Asian countries, including South Korea, Japan and India,

have been flat with that of North America. The combination of telephone,

television, and the Internet has brought in the network convergence era. The

convergence of service and terminal devices has drawn operators and

consumers closer together, while Taiwan gains sustainable development

opportunities due to the fact that it is good at R & D and manufacture of

hardware.

We must think about the trends in the next 10 years that will affect the policy of

high-ranking civil servants’ training in Taiwan. On September 13, 2010, Foresight

Committee convened a forum named "Strengthening the foresight system and

enhancing Taiwan's competitiveness - think tank and decision-making", under which a

report entitled "ten challenges in the 10 golden years" was published. In this report,

some factors that may affect foresight planning in the next 10 years in Taiwan were

mentioned. Using data from those literatures, we have worked out some trends that

may likely to affect the reforms for the high-ranking civil servants’ training system in

Taiwan as follows (see Table 3).

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Table 3: A summary of challenges, trends, and specific events in the next 10 years

Phase Year Challenges, trends, and specific events

Phase

1:

2011

～

2013

common

challenges

The will to carry out the policy agenda announced by the Examination

Yuan in its 11th term as well as six major plans for civil service reforms.

The capacity to implement those emerging policies, including the 12

major infrastructure projects for love of Taiwan, 4 new major intelligent

industries, 6 major emerging industry, 10 key service industries.

Economic challenges: Facing the regional economic integration and the

rise of China, Taiwan is yet to formulate foresight strategy to grasp

opportunities or to reduce threats.

Challenge to well-being: Benefits of economic growth can not be enjoyed

by all.

Challenges to security: Gap between rich and poor is rapidly expanding,

while urban crime rate is increasing.

2011

Plans of Intelligent Taiwan (2011-2016) start, stressing the theory and

practice of interactive service-oriented governance in the Web 2.0 era.

Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed between

two sides of Taiwan Straits celebrates its anniversary; investment in

Taiwan gets started.

Cabinet reshuffle is expected. Will it affect the departments in charge of

personnel administration? Will the new department head continue the old

policies?

2012

Presidential election for the 13th

term and Legislator election for the 8th

term

The third phase of nation-building 4-year (2009-2012) program in the new

century expires.

Phase

2:

2014

～

2017

common

challenges

Demographic challenges: Population is aging seriously, with working

population ratio turning into negative growth.

Educational challenges: closures of universities burst out. Educational

resources should be completely restructured.

Unemployment challenges: Unemployment rates increase and social

welfare spending soars, causing unbalance between financing and

annuities.

Talent challenge: Talent shortage is getting worse, causing intense

competition for talents in the globe.

2014 11th

-term Presidency of Examination Yuan expires at the end of the year

2016 Presidential election for the 14

th term and Legislator election for the 9

th

term

Phase

3:

2018

～

2020

common

challenges

Financial challenges: national budget deficits get worse, squeezing out

child welfare, women and health care and other welfare expenditures.

Resource challenges: Energy, minerals, food, and water are getting scarce,

causing intense competition among countries in the world.

Virtual Challenge: Virtual crimes in the Internet get serious.

2020

Presidential election for the 15th

term and Legislator election for the 10th

term

12th

-term Presidency of Examination Yuan expires at the end of the year

Source: retrieved and modified on 2010.11.10 from "Foresight Committee" blog site at

http://foresight30.blogspot.com/

C. Preparation for Foresight Research in advance

(A) An in-depth interview design and analysis of results

Before embarking on design of the Delphi questionnaire, the research team

conducted three in-depth interviews on November 2, 2010. The respondents were

invited from government and business sectors. All of them are experienced in training

high-ranking officials. Two of the respondents were invited from the Examination

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Yuan and the Executive Yuan, with an aim to properly grasp the views of different

ministries. Respondents from the corporate sector are not only experienced in training

the officials but they are also senior managers across the industry. Interviews were

focused on collecting information on problems, coping strategies, and institutional

reform for the high-ranking civil servants’ training system from a foresight

perspective. Far below results of the interviews were analyzed and explained as

follows.

1. Foresight time considerations

The original 30-year planning period is a bit too long. The time frame for an

enterprise to conduct strategic planning is about three to five years. Therefore,

our first consideration is how long the average retirement age of public servants

is, due to the fact that the time frame for foresight planning should be long

enough to overhaul the entire structure. In addition, it would take at least 10

years for a civil servant to become a high-ranking civil servant in general. Thus,

it is appropriate to set 10 years as a study period for the foresight research.

2. Internal problems

(1) Lack of public dialogue to understand people's needs: a society or a country

should have a public dialogue mechanism between the government and the

people, so that the community can naturally shape its common vision.

(2) Lack of capacity for policy advocacy: At present, high-ranking civil servants

in Taiwan lack the communication skills to effectively convey the policy or

decree messages to people in the face of the media.

(3) Lack of resilience: In the face of problems, high-ranking civil servants are not

resilient enough. The entire system should opt for more openness.

(4) Importance of information technology: Information technology has been

changing our society and lifestyle significantly. However, in comparison with

enterprises, the government departments are much less aware of information

technology. Thus, the changes brought about by information technology

should be a focus in the training courses for high-ranking civil servants.

(5) Training being a mere formality: The government should first find out what

the need is before conducting training. Otherwise, the purpose of training is

only a formality. Traditional teaching methods should not be used in the

training of high-ranking civil servants. Instead, interactive participation in the

process should be encouraged.

(6) Lack of loyalty: High-ranking civil servants lack for loyalty and a sense of

belonging. In an enterprise, loyalty and a sense of belonging are attitudes of

first priority for developing a good working attitude. However, attitudes are

also the products of the whole work environment and mechanism. So, loyalty

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and a sense of belonging should be instilled into the mechanisms for

high-ranking civil servants.

3. External problems

(1) Lack of social and cultural upgrading: High-ranking civil servants should not

only pursue competitiveness to face the global challenge but also improve

their service quality to the public and their own personal qualities. In other

words, they should improve themselves internally and externally, which

should be one of the government's policies, too.

(2) Lack of sense of competitive threat: This is a competition-oriented society

today. The Government should be a competition-oriented organization. Thus,

high-ranking civil servants should be aware of the external threat in a

competitive society and continue to enhance their own capabilities.

4. Strategy

(1) High-ranking civil servants should integrate public vision with practice:

High-ranking civil servants should develop macro perspective, understand

public affairs strategies, and integrate concepts with practices.

(2) Sources of teachers should not be limited to the academia, the public sector, or

the private sector: As high-ranking civil servants have to develop integrated

vision, the sources of teachers should not be limited to the public sector,

private sector, or the academia. Teachers may also come from non-profit

organizations or community organizations.

(3) Training courses should focus on the nature of publicity: Training courses

should focus on the concept of publicity, so as to develop the ability and

intention of high-ranking civil servants to integrate the policies with the

aforementioned value.

(4) Avoidance of education in a single system: High-ranking civil servants should

be rotated across different sectors or international organizations, so that they

would not limit their view or problem solving to the angel of their own

department alone.

5. System establishment

(1) Pursuit of personal sense of public service: It is hoped that high-ranking civil

servants can deeply feel and care for the community in the process of

providing public services and are stimulated to provide even better public

services with innovation.

(2) Courses designed to meet culture-specific conditions: Training programs must

be designed to nurture the functions and core competencies of high-ranking

civil servants to meet the culture-specific conditions of Taiwan.

(3) A learning map: It is desirable to promote the learning map from the

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perspective of the high-ranking civil servants, so that they can be guided to

effectively use national resources and gain a sense of accomplishment.

(B) The design of Delphi questionnaire and analysis of results

1. Pre-test of questionnaire design and analysis of results

In order to obtain higher consensus on the results of the formal Delphi

questionnaire and to collect recommendations for modification of the drafted

questionnaire, we invited 38 officials (Junior Rank, grades 7-9) from different

personnel units to fill out questionnaires on 22 November 2010. We collected 36

valid questionnaires, with a return rate to 94.7%. The pre-test questionnaire was

composed of four main parts, namely "During the 10-year foresight planning

period, the problems that we may face for training high-ranking civil servants

and their appropriateness level", "During the 10-year foresight planning period,

the problem-solving strategies for training high-ranking civil servants and their

appropriateness level", "During the 10-year foresight planning period, the

dimension for constructing high-ranking civil servants’ training system and their

appropriateness level", and "The appropriateness level of the four dimensions

and their subordinating dimensions as well as their measurement items".

We then used "standard deviation" to measure the divergence level of

viewpoints among the respondents. If the standard deviation was 0.6 or less, we

defined that the respondents had "high consensus" in the index; if the standard

deviation lay in between 0.6 to 1, they were considered as "moderate consensus",

while those with a standard deviation above 1 as "low consensus".1 The mean

was used to determine the extent agreed by respondents for an indicator. The

higher the score, the higher level the respondents agreed on the indicator. Among

the 72 question items asked in the pretest questionnaire, 34 question items

reached "high consensus" (standard deviation being 0.6 or less), 37 question

Items achieved moderate consensus (standard deviation in between 0.6 and 1),

and 1 question Item at "low consensus" (standard deviation over 1), showing that

there were some controversies in the drafted questionnaire and some revisions

were needed before the first round of formal survey was conducted.

2. Design of the official questionnaire and analysis of the results

In the first round of questionnaire, we used the revised Delphi survey

method to construct assessment dimensions and indicators based on analysis of

literatures. For the first round of survey, 18 questionnaires were sent out by mail

1 How stringent the standards to inspect the Delphi analysis are may depend on the complexity of

issues, the sensitivity level, respondents’ understanding of the subject, and subjective judgments of

researchers; this article applied the standards used by most of the literatures in dealing with the same

research. For relevant literatures, please see Hartman (1981), Linstone & Turoff (1979), Mishler (1986),

and Shieh (1990).

- 12 -

on November 26, 2010 and 14 were recovered on 30 November 2010, with a

recovery rate of 78%. When we started coding for the recovered questionnaires,

we figured out a way to avoid coding ambiguity for the second round of

questionnaire recovery and decided to mark "A" for those coming back from

Examination Yuan or its respective agencies, "B" for Central Personnel

Administration of Executive Yuan or its respective agencies, "C" for scholars,

and the same coding for those successful respondents in the first round. 14

questionnaires were sent by e-mail in the second round of survey on December

11, 2010 and 11 were recovered in between Dec. 15 and 20, 2010, with a

recovery rate of 79%. Replies from those respondents were listed as follows in

Table 4.

Table 4: Recovery of Delphi questionnaires in the first and second rounds

Round Identity Coding reply/copies sent

Round 1 Government

departments

A01-A03

B01-B08

9/11

Scholars C01-C07 5/7

Overall recovery ratio 14/18(78％)

Round 2 Government

departments

A02-A03

B01-B04

B06-B08

6/9

Scholars C01-C03

C05-C06

5/5

Overall recovery ratio 11/14(79％)

"Standard deviation" was then used to measure the divergence level of

viewpoints among the respondents. If the standard deviation was 0.6 or less, we

defined that the respondents had "high consensus" in the index; if the standard

deviation lay in between 0.6 to 1, they were considered as "moderate consensus",

while those with a standard deviation above 1 as "low consensus". The mean was

used to determine the extent agreed by respondents for an indicator. The higher

the score, the higher level the respondents agreed on the indicator. Among the 71

question items asked in the first round of questionnaires, 38 question items

reached "high consensus" (standard deviation being 0.6 or less), 22 question

Items achieved moderate consensus (standard deviation in between 0.6 and 1),

and 11 question Items at "low consensus" (standard deviation over 1), showing

that there were some controversies in the first-round questionnaire and some

revisions were needed before the second round of formal survey was conducted.

Inspection of the second-round questionnaire, we found that only the first

part, the internal and external problems facing the high-ranking civil servants’

training system, appeared to have slightly divergent views, while the majority of

other indicators showed a decrease in the standard deviation and an increase in

the mean. Among the 74 question items in the second-round questionnaire, 23

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achieved high consensus (standard deviation less than 0.6), fewer than 38 in the

first-round questionnaire, while 15 low consensuses in the second-round

questionnaire were also slightly higher than the 11 low consensuses in the

first-round questionnaire. In addition, among the 36 moderate consensuses in the

second-round questionnaire, the standard deviations of 22 question items fell in

between 0.61 to 0.70, indicating the respondents' views were more focused than

those in between the first-round questionnaire. In addition, as we discovered that

respondents had more divergent opinions about the internal and external

problems in the first part, thus, this first part would be put into in-depth

discussion in the follow-up planning meetings, to seek consensus for the

foresight program among the experts and scholars.

(C) An overview of scenario planning and scenario writing

It is the intention of scenario planning strategy to maintain public confidence in

the public sector, while scenario writing is to jog down the possible scenarios and the

affecting factors that policy decision makers may face when they test the policies in a

real-life situation, so that they can preparedly and timely response to those challenges

if they happen as predicted. In short, scenario planning is to find out by multiple

perspectives the possible developments, results, and affecting factors for the future.

It is essential to first establish a research framework for the scenario planning

process so as to understand and analyze the complexity of an emerging subject,

explore the undetermined region and unexpected things, assess the interdependence or

consistency between issues and between changing factors, and assess the development

and response to forecast issues under the specific conditions (or impact). In general,

scenario planning is often used in critical issues, for understanding of environmental

changes (information control, staff conditions, and conceptual capability), for

surpassing short-term and spatial boundaries, and for organizational development

issues. The reason why scenario planning is applied to the above topics or purposes is

mainly because its methods have the following four advantages:

1. Impact on mental models: It is hoped to influence the thinking of policy

makers and stakeholders, such as high-level officials and the key viewpoint

providers in the public sector. Scenario analysis provides a kind of sense so

that people would be more flexible and open-minded in their mental models

and in a better position to feel the issues at hand and ready to be reviewed.

2. New thinking and innovation: When we find the scenario analysis can be used

to describe the world’s future development, we begin to imagine how to

construct our future differently. Through the imagination process of definition

and comparison, we begin to link the different ideas to develop new thinking

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and innovative approaches for the organization.

3. The future trends are unfolded at the present: Policy makers usually focus on

today or yesterday because of the daily pressure they face. In the case of

scenario analysis, the future is a factor to be used for innovative thinking and

organization structuring.

4. Clues to future events: Scenario analysis is a method emphasizing intuition

and consistency of research. As the environment changes, it can be use to

identify, enhance and present the faces of an organization at different times.

Development of scenario planning is a necessary step to organize the business

environment and the vision. However, the methods used in its process are very

different from those of traditional planning. The obvious difference is that

scenario-planning information is used to create the future or influence the mental

models. In addition, scenario planning can be used to develop policy models and

frameworks. It also provides an alternative structure for people to explore

technological innovation, transformation of social values, and other changes and

shocks.

D. Design and implementation of scenario planning discussions

Scholars may vary in their claims for the scenario planning and analysis steps.

Among them, the steps proposed by Stanford Research Institute (SRI) are considered

the best because they are simplified but perfect. The steps in sequence are to "identify

foresight planning issues - identify key decision factors - brainstorm forces & drivers -

rate by importance & uncertainty - group forces & drivers - name axes & endpoints".

After these steps are carried out, the scenario must be given a named, explained, and

fully described.

Our scenario planning discussion was held on December 26, 2010. Three experts

were invited, each representing the business, the government, and the academic. At

the beginning of the "scenario planning and scenario writing seminars", we first made

a briefing on what literatures were reviewed, how in-depth interviews were conducted,

what results the Delphi survey found. (Copies of briefing materials had been sent by

e-mail to the participants in advance, in a hope to improve the efficiency of live

discussions.) As consensus on some future environmental trends had not been reached

in the two rounds of Delphi questionnaire surveys, thus, we first focused the

discussion on agenda related to the future environment. The results of the scenario

planning discussions will be explained In the following six steps, namely to "identify

foresight planning issues - identify key decision factors - brainstorm forces & drivers -

rate by importance & uncertainty - group forces & drivers - name axes & endpoints".

- 15 -

Step 1: Identify foresight planning issues

The scope and focus of scenario planning issues were equivalent to the purposes

and problems of the commissioned research project. We named the scenario planning

discussion as "The trends of Taiwan's high-ranking civil servants’ training system in

the next 10 years".

Step 2: Identify key decision factors

Following the aforementioned scenario planning issues, the forum must confirm

the major decision factors, especially when two rounds of Delphi questionnaire survey

did not produce a consensus on the internal and external environmental factors that

may affect the development of high-ranking civil servants’ training system. Results of

the second round of Delphi questionnaire survey showed that the respondents did not

reach consensus on "internal problems and external problems facing the high-ranking

civil servants’ training system". Even though extreme opinions were excluded, the

mean or standard deviation is not so satisfactory at all.

In the scenario planning forum, participants suggested the title of "diagnosis of

high-ranking civil servants’ training problems" to express the challenges that foresight

policy may face in the next 10 years, and then divided the problems to be diagnosed

into two parts, consisting of the internal environment in which the public expectations

and needs must be met and the external environment in which challenges of global

competition must be addressed. In addition, participants proposed to address the

internal and external problems facing the high-ranking civil servants’ training system

by the name "high-ranking civil servants training strategy", which was not only a

more appropriate governing concept but also echoed the main function of the

foresight study.

Step 3: Brainstorm forces & drivers

After identifying "diagnosis of high-ranking civil servants’ training problems"

and "high-ranking civil servants training strategy" as key decision factors for "The

trends of Taiwan's high-ranking civil servants’ training system in the next 10 years",

participants began to discuss over the affecting factors listed on table 3 (A summary

of challenges, trends, and specific events in the next 10 years) and the problems and

strategy listed on the second round Delphi survey. Brainstorming was applied to seek

consensus on those driving forces (or impact forces) that may influence Taiwan's

high-ranking civil servants training. Finally, participants reached a consensus on 29

important driving (or influencing) forces (see Table 5), which included both positive

and negative descriptions.

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Table 5: Scenario planning and drivers for Taiwan high-ranking civil servants’ training system

Grouping Scenario

Drivers

Aggressive

development

Conservative and

stable

strong middle weak strong middle weak

Political

Timing of reform V V

Public support V V

Political influence V V

Will of top-level to reform V V

Pressure of public opinion V V

Administrative

Departmental collaboration2 V V

Collaboration between

Presidential Office and

Executive Yuan

V V

Administrative innovation V V

Distribution of training funds V V

Culture

Existing rights V V

Departmental selfishness V V

Conservative attitude V V

Characteristics of an

organization V V

Institutional trust V V

Society

Civil identity V V

Choices of policy instruments V V

Awareness of service quality V V

The proportion of female civil

servants V V

External

environmental

factors

Global thinking V V

National Competitiveness V V

Development of civil society V V

Trends of human resources

development V V

Trends of international

high-ranking civil servants’

training

V V

Supporting

measures

E-governance V V

Combination of training and

employment V V

Mapping of functions V V

Cross-sectoral rotation V V

Strip of training V V

Change of the testing systems

to high-ranking civil servants V V

Notes: the degree of influence on the driver is divides into three levels as “strong, middle, and weak”.

Step 4: Rate by importance & uncertainty

Following the generation of the aforementioned 29 important drivers (or

influence), we shifted our attention to the evaluation of those factors and found that

we needed to rate the importance of two determining criteria, namely "desired future

conditions" and "undesired future conditions". In other words, if the reform of

2 The so-called "departmental collaboration" means that when the government regularly outsources its

business, civil servants have to learn some new business, learn how to work together or even compete

with the second-sector and third-sector organizations. This phenomenon would easily lead to formation

of environmental pressures to the institutional reforms.

- 17 -

high-ranking civil servants’ training system were to continue, we needed to rate the

“desired future conditions" by importance in a way that we indicated that the factor

was "strong, middle, or weak”.

Step 5: Group forces & drivers

Participants chose the internal and external environmental factors stated in

"diagnosis of high-ranking civil servants’ training problems" to classify the 29

important drivers (or influence) by asking the question what pressure this factor

would cause to the reforms of high-ranking civil servants’ training system. The

nomenclature was based on the factors listed in table 3 and the internal and external

environmental factors listed in the Delphi questionnaire. Some results would be

explained in the following. For more details, please refer to Table 5.

(A) Internal environmental factors: In order to meet the expectations of the citizens,

what internal environmental factors were essential to the reforms of high-ranking

civil servants’ training system and what development direction the institutional

reform should go in terms of "Political, Administrative, Culture, Society"

aspects.

1. Political aspects: When the timing for reforming the civil service system is

emerging, it would force the system to respond to the disputes of the present

situation. Agents of change might solicit supports from the public to

strengthen their will to reform and promote the institutional reform for training

high-ranking civil servants so as to meet the needs of the people. However,

public servants themselves are interest groups, and they may also lobby to put

pressure on the institutional reform in a hope that the reform would be in line

with their interests and preferences.

2. Administrative aspects: When the Government departments interact more

frequently with the second-sector and third-sector organizations, they may

respond positively to the situations they are facing, leading to institutional

changes. On the other hand, if they ignore the pressure coming from the

situations, change would not happen and even cause the system to deteriorate.

However, the collaboration between the Presidential Office and the Executive

Yuan may lead to either aggressive or conservative changes, depending on

what attitudes they adopt in responding to the situation. Two concepts may

play an important role here. The first is the concept of inter-organizational

cooperation, while the other is an organization’s capabilities to defend its

boundaries in a conservative way.

3. Cultural aspects: During the change process, negative cultural factors often

lead an organization or a system to conservatism and defensiveness, which are

- 18 -

not good response to the situations. Although organizational trust is considered

a positive cultural element, it may lead to either following-up or resistance to a

change. In the following-up case, people trust that the change will lead his or

her organizational towards a better state, while in the latter case, people hold

on to the existing system and appear conservative towards changes. In addition,

different government agencies have different characteristics, which may affect

their attitude towards changes. For example, the Ministry of Economic Affairs,

which interacts intensively and deeply with the business community, tends to

be more active and positive towards changes, while the Ministry of Education

may react to changes in an opposite way.

4. Social aspects: A society may consist of some sub-systems, which may react

differently to changes. In addition to meeting public expectations, the

high-ranking civil servants’ training system has to deal with the pressure

coming from the sub-systems, which may accept or resist changes. It is

generally believed that women tend to be more positive towards changes.

However, the issue whether to increase the proportion of women high-ranking

civil servants would lead to a better acceptance of institutional reforms needs a

more detailed discussion and inspection.

(B) External environmental factors: In response to challenges derived from

globalization and regionalization and to enhance national competitiveness, the

capability of the high-ranking civil servants’ training system must be elevated

and aligned to the international standards.

(C) Supporting measures: Included in this category are such measures and

propositions as "IT-derived E-governance”, “an integrated personnel policy to

combine teaching, testing, training, and employment”, “design and planning

for mapping of functions and strips of training”, “rotation system” and

“employment relaxation of the civil servants".

Step 6: name axes & endpoints

In order to briefly explain the foresight development and possible scenarios for

Taiwan's high-ranking civil servants training in the next 10 years, participants

suggested pairing problems with strategies. Thus, they decided to put "environmental

responsiveness" and "legal innovation" on the axis, representing the "diagnosis of

high-ranking civil servants' training problems" and "channel to propose high-ranking

civil servants training strategy" and put "with or without" on the endpoints of

nomenclature (see Figure 2).

- 19 -

Figure 2: Schematic diagram of the axis and the endpoint naming

E. Results of the study

In this study, we have used multiple research methods and developed two axes,

namely "environmental responsiveness" and "legal innovation", separately

representing the "diagnosis of high-ranking civil servants training" and "strategic

initiative to high-ranking civil servants training". Following this line of logic, we have

then divided the reform thinking of high-ranking civil servants training system into

four categories, including "conservative thinking (stability)”, “entrepreneur mentality

(development)”, “compromising mentality (muddling through)”, and bureaucratic

thinking (backwardness)". We have positioned the current status of Taiwan

high-ranking civil servants’ training system as "conservative thinking (stable)", based

on which we have then proposed two scenarios, namely "positive development" and

"conservatively stable", representing "desired future state" (developmental type) and

"undesired future conditions" (regressive type), respectively (see Figure 3).

- 20 -

Figure 3: consensus in foresight planning for Taiwan's high-ranking civil servants’ training system

In the analysis process of this study, we found that respondents to the Delphi

survey differed greatly in their opinions about the challenges and affecting factors for

the high-ranking civil servants’ training system. After the extreme values were

excluded to improve the degree of consensus, low consensus was still reached on

some question items. To further confirm the affecting factors and to facilitate the

scenario writing for Taiwan’s high-ranking civil servants’ training system in the next

10 years, the experts participating in the "scenario planning and scenario writing

seminar" matched the 29 drivers for institutional reform on which they had reached

consensus with those factors list on Table 3: A summary of challenges, trends, and

specific events in the next 10 years to explain the relationship between 29 drivers and

two scenario - "desired future state" (developmental) and "undesired future state"

(regressive type) (see Table 6).

Table 6: The relationship between two scenarios and the drivers

Grouping Drivers Scenario

Aggressive development Conservatism and stability

Political

Timing of reform Cabinet reshuffle would be modest in 2011; Relationship between

Examination Yuan and Executive Yuan would be harmony; It is the

year to begin the campaigns for Presidential election and

legislative elections; President of Examination Yuan continues to

demonstrate his political influence and his will to reform;

High-ranking civil servants would be fostered in accordance with

succession program and the government priority policies set out

for the next 10 years; Support would be won over a majority of

legislators. → aggressive development

If the aforementioned situations develop in a reverse direction, the

scenario may turn out to be "conservative and stable".

Public support

Political influence

Will of top-level to

reform

Pressure of public

opinion

- 21 -

Administrative

Departmental

collaboration3

Attention would be paid to departmental collaboration and

administrative innovation; Adequate funds would be allocated to

training programs; Central government would turn out a powerful

leader. → aggressive development

Because of the elections, the system would tend to "conservatism

and stability” in the period between 2014 and 2016.

Collaboration

between Presidential

Office and Executive

Yuan

Administrative

innovation

Distribution of

training funds

Culture

Existing rights Lack of trust in institutional change; Resistance from vested

interest groups; Departmental selfishness.→ "aggressive

development" On the contrary, it would turn out to be "conservative and

stable".

Departmental

selfishness

Conservative attitude

Characteristics of an

organization

Institutional trust

Society

Civil identity Increase the proportion of women officials, shaping a new social

identity; Civil society would flourish and demand better services;

Officials realize the changes in the society and choose appropriate

policy tools to meet the demands of the public.→ aggressive

development In contrast, if the aforementioned situations develop in a reverse

direction, it may turn out to be "conservative and stable".

Choices of policy

instruments

Awareness of service

quality

The proportion of

female civil servants

External

environmental

factors

Global thinking Government continues to actively expand its international

exposure; Attention is paid to various international

competitiveness evaluation results; Civil society in Taiwan

develops sustainably; Concepts of human resources, lifelong

learning, and human capital are emphasized and promoted;

Training system for high-ranking civil servants’ becomes a

growing trend; Aging in population and declining birthrate become

an increasingly serious problem. → aggressive development

If the aforementioned situations are in lack of pressure for

development, it may turn to be "conservative and stable".

National

Competitiveness

Development of civil

society

Trends of human

resources

development

Trends of

international

high-ranking civil

servants’ training

Supporting

measures

E-governance Cloud technology drives waves of e-governance learning;

Integrated personnel policy is promoted to combine teaching,

testing, training and employment; Training requirements are linked

with functions mapping for the high-ranking civil servants;

Cross-sectoral rotation system is established; Channels to recruit

high-ranking civil servants are diversified and widened.→

aggressive development If the aforementioned situations develop in a reverse direction, it

may turn to be "conservative and stable".

Combination of

training and

employment

Mapping of functions

Cross-sectoral

rotation

Strip of training

Change of the testing

systems to

high-ranking civil

servants

3 The so-called "departmental collaboration" means that when the government regularly outsources its

business, civil servants have to learn some new business, learn how to work together or even compete

with the second-sector and third-sector organizations. This phenomenon would easily lead to formation

of environmental pressures to the institutional reforms.

- 22 -

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