Policy in a New Economic Order

Haydn Shaughnessy • Co-founderThe Disruption House

1

Growing Ecosystems

21991 2007

Open source lines of code added

How different is the economy

now?

3

Green line - on trend global trade in goods (2008 - 2013)Blue line - on trend GDPRed line - World import volume (2000 - 2013)

Global imports in goods beyond 2015Trade elasticity data suggests the global trade-GDP growth link is over

The growth of complex global supply chains is stalled. Instead we are layering services into existing economic activity.

A strange piece of additional

data

4

Cross border Internet traffic

2008-2012 49% CAGRTrade in goods 2.4%

For the most part leaves no monetary footprint

More hidden value - social

affinity

5

Brand value v social affinity

The Rise of Integrated Business Platforms

More trade is gravitating towards business platforms

Integrated procurement, e-billing and receivables

With a payment layer

In some cases (Alibaba, Ariba) with a lending layer

And soon with an FX layer6

PUBLIC

PRIVATE

Challenge conventional commerce with more contextual information, one stop shop, low unit

cost

The effect of platforms

1.Highly efficient and highly scalable at low friction

2.But - Apple owns 95% of the profits in smartphones; c50% of consumer electronics firms are financially stressed

3.Amazon Local and Uber suck margin out of local communities and centralise wealth

4.Work becomes piece-work, which creates ambiguity around welfare

7

The common pool resource

1.In the 1990s we began thinking about shared IP under creative commons

2.Today we need to think about the ecosystem as a common pool and to define its common pool elements

8

Data is a common pool

resource

In place of restriction on data we need to foster systems that allow common

pool management

In place of negotiating with large, centralised data platforms we need to

inform electorates about this invaluable economic resource

9

Economic imbalance

Platforms are invaluable but so too are the ecosystems around them

Can it be corrected by diverting the value we commonly create to different forms of employment or entrepreneurial crowd platforms?

Better tax regimes for the ecosystem not the platform

10

Ending

Make the hidden economic activity visible

Create metrics that highlight its value

Identify the contribution of the common pool

Distribute that value as opportunity

11